AP top 10 oddity

[phillybillyreprise]

I was listening to Sirius radio yesterday. They said that for the past 11 years, at least one team in the AP’s preseason top 10 ends the year not in the top 25. This has occurred 15 out of the last 16 years. Last year it was Florida State. Callers were asked to predict this year’s team(s). PSU was the leading choice when I arrived at my destination. The reasons were loss of Barkley, loss of Moorhead, loss of defense starters, and a very tough schedule including the tough away game at PSU’s angry rival Pitt.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

 

[Kroixklk]

I was listening to Sirius radio yesterday. They said that for the past 11 years, at least one team in the AP’s preseason top 10 ends the year not in the top 25. This has occurred 15 out of the last 16 years. Last year it was Florida State. Callers were asked to predict this year’s team(s). PSU was the leading choice when I arrived at my destination. The reasons were loss of Barkley, loss of Moorhead, loss of defense starters, and a very tough schedule including the tough away game at PSU’s angry rival Pitt.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

I’m not as informed on the rest of the top 10 but that would mean we would have to go 8-4. 8-4 isn’t out of the question. So I guess I would have to agree. We could lose our four toughest games. Um wisc osu and msu. Still a “good” season.

 

[NittPicker]

My first question would be, how many times was it a perpetually over rated Notre Dame team? Also, FSU lost their starting QB in game #1 and went with a true freshman thereafter.

Regarding PSU, people act as though nobody else has ever had to replace personnel. The people surveyed show their lack of knowledge by thinking Pitt will be a brutal test on the road in front of a hostile crowd. Barring a plague of injuries (knock wood), I'd bet my house on a top 25 finish.

 

[Woodpecker]

I would expect the #10 team to be the most likely member of the Top Ten to perform poorly regardless of what team it is.

 

[PSU.:.]

People keep forgetting PSU has leading Heismen horse at qb. They also don't realize they return the whole OL and the 2016# 1 rb recruit to replace Barkley.

 

[mrmk5110]

Auburn's games include Washington to begin the year, LSU, @MSU, TAMU, @Georgia, and @Alabama.

Of any team in the top ten, they would be the most likely to have a down year with a new OLine and that tough schedule.

I don't really see any other team falling out that much, although Oklahoma could struggle as from what the word is Murray hasn't exactly been lighting it up in preseason camp.

 

[Obliviax]

People keep forgetting PSU has leading Heismen horse at qb. They also don't realize they return the whole OL and the 2016# 1 rb recruit to replace Barkley.

Agree...but Tommy Stevens, it has been reported, is in a boot. If so, we are thin at QB. I am not going to finish the thought while I knock on wood.

 

[ChiTownLion]

Loving all this bulletin board material. Hope CJF gets word. But the logic isn't bad. Our boys are the target now.

 

[EPC FAN]

Well, it’s the same old song I’ve been listening to about the Lions since the ‘60s. Most overrated coach. Can’t win without Barkley. Gesicki, and Hamilton. This team and coaching staff should have a huge chip on it’s shoulder.

 

[psuro]

I can't wait for the season to start so we can at least see what the results on the field tell us about the success or failure of each team.

 

[Rip_E_2_Joe_PA]

If PSU had starters that did not play except for Mop up time as in the past, I would worry about the defensive losses. With the system in place, I don't. JoMo's system is installed for the most part. Rahne will add his own wrinkles to it as we have seen in the bowl game. Barkley is Barkley, I think we see a more diverse O, which will offset his absence.I worry more about replacing now Denver Bronco and Miami receivers production... there is skill in house but we have yet to see them in money time.

No denying that the schedule is tough but the cross state rivalry is a joke.

I expect this program to replace teams like Ro replaces photos .

 

[joeparules]

I’m not as informed on the rest of the top 10 but that would mean we would have to go 8-4. 8-4 isn’t out of the question. So I guess I would have to agree. We could lose our four toughest games. Um wisc osu and msu. Still a “good” season.

1. Alabama ... face 1 top 15
2. Clemson ... face 0 top 15
3. Georgia ... play 1 top 15
4. Wisconsin ... play 2 top 15
5. Ohio State ... play 3 top 15
6. Washington ... play 2 top 15
7. Oklahoma ... play 0 top 15
8. Miami ... play 0 top 15
9. Auburn ... play 3 top 15
10. Penn State ... play 4 top 15
11. Michigan State
12. Notre Dame
13. Stanford
14. Michigan
15. USC

Just based on this alone it is easy to pick PSU, but 3 of the 4 top 15 match-ups are at home. Auburn has one fewer top 15 match-up, but 2 of the 3 are on the road (at Bama and at UGA). Same with O$U where 2 of 3 are on the road (at PSU and at MSU) and also have TCU (#16) on the road at AT&T stadium. If UM gets fired or multiple game suspension, I might actually put the Buckeyes ahead of PSU as most likely.

 

[78SweetRevenge]

I was listening to Sirius radio yesterday. They said that for the past 11 years, at least one team in the AP’s preseason top 10 ends the year not in the top 25. This has occurred 15 out of the last 16 years. Last year it was Florida State. Callers were asked to predict this year’s team(s). PSU was the leading choice when I arrived at my destination. The reasons were loss of Barkley, loss of Moorhead, loss of defense starters, and a very tough schedule including the tough away game at PSU’s angry rival Pitt.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

I get that logic (aside from Pitt) but I completely disagree. Auburn or Miami would be the obvious choices
I could see us having a "down year" but not outside the top 25

 

[Obliviax]

Well, it’s the same old song I’ve been listening to about the Lions since the ‘60s. Most overrated coach. Can’t win without Barkley. Gesicki, and Hamilton. This team and coaching staff should have a huge chip on it’s shoulder.

Agree....a lot depends on how well the highly regarded recruits step up at DT, DE (now), LB and WR. And injuries are always a wild card.

 

[78SweetRevenge]

People keep forgetting PSU has leading Heismen horse at qb. They also don't realize they return the whole OL and the 2016# 1 rb recruit to replace Barkley.

To be fair, not everyone around the country likes Trace as much as we do. Many other fan bases still believe he's a product of Barkley and the 50/50 ball

 

[psuro]

To be fair, not everyone around the country likes Trace as much as we do. Many other fan bases still believe he's a product of Barkley and the 50/50 ball

"Many" other fan bases? Or your interpretation of what a couple people may think?

 

[78SweetRevenge]

"Many" other fan bases? Or your interpretation of what a couple people may think?

No, spend some time listening to other fan bases instead of just our fan base. It doesn't make them right but it explains the vote. I never said they were right--remember we're discussing WHY PEOPLE ARE VOTING HOW THEY ARE. Saying Trace is a Heisman front-runner makes sense but not everyone sees it that way hence people think we'll fade.

 

[LionDeNittany]

Auburn's games include Washington to begin the year, LSU, @MSU, TAMU, @Georgia, and @Alabama.

Of any team in the top ten, they would be the most likely to have a down year with a new OLine and that tough schedule.

I don't really see any other team falling out that much, although Oklahoma could struggle as from what the word is Murray hasn't exactly been lighting it up in preseason camp.

The problem is that Auburn could lose all those games and still be ranked in the top 25.

LdN

 

[BobPSU92]

I was listening to Sirius radio yesterday. They said that for the past 11 years, at least one team in the AP’s preseason top 10 ends the year not in the top 25. This has occurred 15 out of the last 16 years. Last year it was Florida State. Callers were asked to predict this year’s team(s). PSU was the leading choice when I arrived at my destination. The reasons were loss of Barkley, loss of Moorhead, loss of defense starters, and a very tough schedule including the tough away game at PSU’s angry rival Pitt.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

We're screwed.

 

[tboyer]

I’m not as informed on the rest of the top 10 but that would mean we would have to go 8-4. 8-4 isn’t out of the question. So I guess I would have to agree. We could lose our four toughest games. Um wisc osu and msu. Still a “good” season.

8-4 is very possible, though 8-4 against PSU's schedule still leaves them in the top 25. Stanford finished in the top 25 with 5 losses.

I do think this is one of those years where there is a disconnect between college football fans in general and people who know PSU football more intimately.

From the outside looking in, you see Penn State losing Barkley, Gesicki and a boatload of defensive starters who are on NFL rosters.

But from the inside, you see that those defensive starters are going to be replaced by talented (and in most cases experienced). You see Sanders stepping in for Barkley, you see hopefully the best O-line in 10 years at PSU, McSorley returning, and probably the most talented wide receiver roster we've ever seen at PSU, with three very experienced wideouts (Thompkins, Johnson and Polk) at the top.

So I get both points of view. Enough unknowns that you really can't predict this team. They could be a step down from the last two seasons, or they could be really good again.

My HOPE is that PSU has enough depth defensively to hang with the extremely physical O-lines they're going to see. The only games PSU lost last year were games where fatigue in the front 7 was a key factor. This year D-line depth could be their achilles heel but maybe better athletes at LB and secondary can overcome that somewhat.

Other than that, I don't see too much to be worried about.

 

[joeparules]

Well, it’s the same old song I’ve been listening to about the Lions since the ‘60s. Most overrated coach. Can’t win without Barkley. Gesicki, and Hamilton. This team and coaching staff should have a huge chip on it’s shoulder.

How is PSU going to be successful without Allen Robinson? Enter Chris Godwin. How is PSU going to be successful without Chris Godwin? Enter DaeSean Hamilton. How is PSU going to be successful without DaeSean Hamilton? Enter ??? JJ? Thomkins? Shorter? Hip? Polk?

 

[Madsol]

8-4 is very possible, though 8-4 against PSU's schedule still leaves them in the top 25. Stanford finished in the top 25 with 5 losses.

I do think this is one of those years where there is a disconnect between college football fans in general and people who know PSU football more intimately.

From the outside looking in, you see Penn State losing Barkley, Gesicki and a boatload of defensive starters who are on NFL rosters.

But from the inside, you see that those defensive starters are going to be replaced by talented (and in most cases experienced). You see Sanders stepping in for Barkley, you see hopefully the best O-line in 10 years at PSU, McSorley returning, and probably the most talented wide receiver roster we've ever seen at PSU, with three very experienced wideouts (Thompkins, Johnson and Polk) at the top.

So I get both points of view. Enough unknowns that you really can't predict this team. They could be a step down from the last two seasons, or they could be really good again.

My HOPE is that PSU has enough depth defensively to hang with the extremely physical O-lines they're going to see. The only games PSU lost last year were games where fatigue in the front 7 was a key factor. This year D-line depth could be their achilles heel but maybe better athletes at LB and secondary can overcome that somewhat.

Other than that, I don't see too much to be worried about.

8-4 would mean we would have to lose 3 home games (assuming a loss at Michigan) or 2 if you add in a big upset on the road at Pitt, Illinois, Indiana or Rutgers. Since we haven't lost at home since 2015, I think characterizing losing even 2 home games on one season as "very possible" is incorrect. Possible?, yes. But not "very possible."

 

[78SweetRevenge]

How is PSU going to be successful without Allen Robinson? Enter Chris Godwin. How is PSU going to be successful without Chris Godwin? Enter DaeSean Hamilton. How is PSU going to be successful without DaeSean Hamilton? Enter ??? JJ? Thomkins? Shorter? Hip? Polk?

None of that is the same as losing Barkley but I understand the point

 

[78SweetRevenge]

8-4 would mean we would have to lose 3 home games (assuming a loss at Michigan) or 2 if you add in a big upset on the road at Pitt, Illinois, Indiana or Rutgers. Since we haven't lost at home since 2015, I think characterizing losing even 2 home games on one season as "very possible" is incorrect. Possible?, yes. But not "very possible."

Losing to Wisconsin, Michigan State & Ohio State though isn't the "typical" home losses. I won't say "very possible" but it would be losing to three very good teams at home. I think we win at least 9 but 8-4 wouldn't be shocking IMO...disappointing sure but not shocking

 

[fastlax16]

None of that is the same as losing Barkley but I understand the point

Other teams have managed to have great seasons without Saquon Barkley at running back.

 

[78SweetRevenge]

Other teams have managed to have great seasons without Saquon Barkley at running back.

They have and we can have a great season without Saquon. No one said otherwise. I don't understand why people get upset when I say we can win between 9-11 games...with 8 and 12 being possible as well. I don't have to believe this team is going 13-0. I don't even think 9-3 would be a bad season. Next year is our best chance to win a title IMO not this year.
Losing Saquon isn't the equivalent to Godwin or Allen Robinson though
Even Gesicki is a bigger loss (at least as a receiver though our blocking should improve)

 

[KnightSlayer]

No, spend some time listening to other fan bases instead of just our fan base. It doesn't make them right but it explains the vote. I never said they were right--remember we're discussing WHY PEOPLE ARE VOTING HOW THEY ARE. Saying Trace is a Heisman front-runner makes sense but not everyone sees it that way hence people think we'll fade.

Yeah, they said the same thing about Trace after 2016 when Godwin declared for the NFL. Strong WR who was really good at fighting for the jump ball. They look at the loss of Gesicki and all they see is us losing a receiving threat at the TE position. None of these "people" know what a liability he was as a blocker.

We had 4 guys with over 50 catches last year. None of the top 10 passing QBs had 4 guys with over 50 catches. Of those 4 guys, none of them had over 50 catches the previous year. The point is, Trace is the key. He is very good at getting the ball to who ever is open. Johnson went from 2 catches in 2016 to 54 in 2017. I expect that number to increase this year. If you are a WR that can catch, Trace will get them the ball. With an good Oline and a TE that can block, this could be Trace's biggest year yet.

 

[berklion]

We're screwed.

We're lucky to just be playing.

 

[78SweetRevenge]

Yeah, they said the same thing about Trace after 2016 when Godwin declared for the NFL. Strong WR who was really good at fighting for the jump ball. They look at the loss of Gesicki and all they see is us losing a receiving threat at the TE position. None of these "people" know what a liability he was as a blocker.

We had 4 guys with over 50 catches last year. None of the top 10 passing QBs had 4 guys with over 50 catches. Of those 4 guys, none of them had over 50 catches the previous year. The point is, Trace is the key. He is very good at getting the ball to who ever is open. Johnson went from 2 catches in 2016 to 54 in 2017. I expect that number to increase this year. If you are a WR that can catch, Trace will get them the ball. With an good Oline and a TE that can block, this could be Trace's biggest year yet.

I'm not arguing with you--I'm explaining the logic people are using to claim we're likely to fall out if someone in the top 10 does.
You're ignoring the loss of Barkley which is going to be large especially as a blocker and receiver.

 

[ILLINOISLION]

The loss of Moorhead is no-big-deal. I think at times last year his stubbornness held our O back.

We’ll miss Barkley’s receiving more than his running. But his lack of turnovers (did he have any last year?) will be hard to match by his replacements this year.

A better OL and better OL depth will help. A deep and athletic group of receivers and running backs bode well. A more experienced Trace will help and a healthy Stevens will add some diversity and unpredictability to the O. Losing the velcro hands of Gesicki will hurt, but hopefully will be offset by a better blocking replacement that can still catch the ball.

The D is much deeper and much more athletic than last year’s. The most experienced players from last year that graduated had weaknesses that were exposed on a regular basis.....I think this year’s athleticism will help eliminate some of those weaknesses.

We have one of the top punters in the country.

The two top question marks (other than our friendly Big 10(14) officiating crews) is our kicking game and Franklin’s sometimes bizarre in-game decisions re: going for it or punting / going for the TD or the FG / letting the clock run vs taking a timeout.

Personally, I’m looking forward to Delany getting his ass booed off the field when he hands the Big 10(14) Championship Trophy to PSU on 12/1/18!

 

[anon_1eeb2b426hv3y]

To be fair, not everyone around the country likes Trace as much as we do. Many other fan bases still believe he's a product of Barkley and the 50/50 ball

And with good reason. Two years ago, he lit up the air when there was little to lose in 50/50 balls—if one believes that’s what he threw. But the long ball WAS what Ds gave us.

Last year, everyone keyed on Barkley. We didn’t make them pay for it it through the air more than we did. Presumably, was because our OL was weaker than it should be this year. Gosh, we’ve been saying that for years and years (and that’s with giving room for the sanctioned period, which is OVER.)
Again, we expect our OL to be better. That finally happens, Trace will make a lot of believers. Until he makes a lot of believers, those folks = disbelievers! With good reason.

My (our) money is on trace!

 

[Option Bob]

I understand the value and importance of a solid OL. But putting aside the devastation that occurred to it at Penn State with the sanctions, when has the OL been the seemingly singular determinant of a great season for any team? Heck, PSU lost 3 NFL OL in 1982 (Munchak, Farrell, Romano) and ended up winning the national title!

Wisconsin, with an annual recruiting class in the 30s, loses 7 defensive starters. But no problem there, because they return their entire OL. Whatever happened to the old "defense wins championships" mantra? Are all those low-ranted defensive guys going to play better because the OL is so good?

All this talk of Penn State's losses ... yes, the Cothra(e)ns were solid, but neither was an All-American or high draft pick. Coach Spencer will have 4 guys, at least, who can plug the run and rush the QB. Windsor, Givens, Hansard, Jordan, Mustipher, and Barber all have the talent to perform as well the 2 lost starters.

At LB, Cabinda was superb, but again. not at a Lee/Bowman level. I think Coach Pry is an excellent coach who will have Bowen, Johnson, Brooks, or Cooper able to stuff the run at MLB. The speed available at the other 2 LB slots is impressive and should turn the LB group eventually into a strength

IMO, the biggest loss in the secondary is Allen's awesome run support. I expect Pry will have LBs picking up that slack, allowing the secondary to focus on what secondaries do -- intercept passes. Last year's veteran group had all of 10 INTs. Ten?! Neal Smith alone had 12 in only 11 games in 1969, facing fewer pass attempts. My B&W glasses see a minimum of 15 interceptions this fall, thanks to Reid's return and an expected pass rush that will cause tons of grief to opposing QBs.

There's no point to discussing losses of Barkley and Gesicki. Great players find ways to make plays to win games, and the offense still has numerous great players to plug in. Tennessee won a NC only AFTER losing Peyton Manning, perhaps the QB equivalent to Saquon. I expect Sanders, Brown, and Slade to make enough great plays that the Trace can still do what Trace does and lead the team to the end zone.

Of course, all this optimism could turn dark in 2 weeks

 

[Howie'81]

I would expect the #10 team to be the most likely member of the Top Ten to perform poorly regardless of what team it is.

Only if you believe the poll to be accurate.

 

[Howie'81]

To be fair, not everyone around the country likes Trace as much as we do. Many other fan bases still believe he's a product of Barkley and the 50/50 ball

Cool. Means there are a lot of ill-informed college football fans.

 

[cavic]

I was listening to Sirius radio yesterday. They said that for the past 11 years, at least one team in the AP’s preseason top 10 ends the year not in the top 25. This has occurred 15 out of the last 16 years. Last year it was Florida State. Callers were asked to predict this year’s team(s). PSU was the leading choice when I arrived at my destination. The reasons were loss of Barkley, loss of Moorhead, loss of defense starters, and a very tough schedule including the tough away game at PSU’s angry rival Pitt.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

My take, the stat doesn't strike me as an oddity at all. It seems likely that, at minimum, one team would have a season-ending injury at a thin position, and that's just one example of something that can tank a season.

Figuring out which team will stumble is hard to predict. Knowing that the odds favor one team substantially underachieving is not.

 

[78SweetRevenge]

Only if you believe the poll to be accurate.

None of those polls are ever "accurate" just opinion but we should understand why people are picking us even if we disagree. I don't think there's any chance in hell we finish outside the top 25 unless we lose another handful of important guys for the season. And even then our depth may be enough to overcome it depending on who those guys are

 

[Woodpecker]

Only if you believe the poll to be accurate.

I suppose that someone could say that the #17 team would be the most likely Top Ten team to finish out of the top 25 and I would be hard-pressed to refute it.

 

[Howie'81]

Other teams have managed to have great seasons without Saquon Barkley at running back.

I know, right?