Article interviewing IOC member about Tokyo Olympics

[Annieat285]

Coronavirus isn't really all that dangerous (just very contagious), and no healthy adult with access to healthcare will realistically die from it, but that doesn't mean it doesn't have the capacity to cause some real havoc for some of our favorite athletes! (also Dick Pound is some wild name )

https://apnews.com/58043910be7bdc6818344bdee2096bc2

As the games draw near, he said, “a lot of things have to start happening. You’ve got to start ramping up your security, your food, the Olympic Village, the hotels. The media folks will be in there building their studios.”

If the IOC decides the games cannot go forward as scheduled in Tokyo, “you’re probably looking at a cancellation,” he said.

 

[Dogwelder]

Coronavirus isn't really all that dangerous (just very contagious), and no healthy adult with access to healthcare will realistically die from it, but that doesn't mean it doesn't have the capacity to cause some real havoc for some of our favorite athletes! (also Dick Pound is some wild name ) ...

I’m sure the families of the doctors and nurses who have already died from the disease will be happy to hear your cheerful, evidence-based pronouncement.

 

[dmm53]

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-official-says-coronavirus-death-223453272.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/25/health/coronavirus-us.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/25/opinions/trump-downplay-coronavirus-ghitis/index.html

 

[Annieat285]

I’m sure the families of the doctors and nurses who have already died from the disease will be happy to hear your cheerful, evidence-based pronouncement.

There's no point in arguing this forever, but I'll just say that it has a 3% mortality rate (though this number is taken from cases worldwide and therefore a bit weird. South Korea has a 1% mortality rate (where they have govt provided healthcare), but Iran has a 13% mortality rate (with a smaller sample size of 139 cases in Iran as opposed to Korea's 1261 (most of which are centered in the same city)) so I'll admit I'm being hyperbolic, but it's worth noting that Coronavirus does have a lower mortality rate than among people who are admitted to hospitals with pneumonia.

Per Wikipedia:

As of 26 February, 2,766 deaths have been attributed to COVID-19. According to China's NHC, most of those who died were older patients – about 80% of deaths recorded were from those over the age of 60, and 75% had pre-existing health conditions including cardiovascular diseases and diabetes.[39] The case fatality rate has been estimated at around 2–3%.[40]

I apologize for being insensitive to the families of people who died.

 

[pawrestlersintn]

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-official-says-coronavirus-death-223453272.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/25/health/coronavirus-us.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/25/opinions/trump-downplay-coronavirus-ghitis/index.html

Fun with statistics.

The 1st article compares the death rate of Corona virus, where the vast majority of cases have occurred in Wu Han province, to the death rate of the flu in the US. Apples and oranges. Your politics are showing.

 

[Conewago]

There's no point in arguing this forever, but I'll just say that it has a 3% mortality rate (though this number is taken from cases worldwide and therefore a bit weird. South Korea has a 1% mortality rate (where they have govt provided healthcare), but Iran has a 13% mortality rate (with a smaller sample size of 139 cases in Iran as opposed to Korea's 1261 (most of which are centered in the same city)) so I'll admit I'm being hyperbolic, but it's worth noting that Coronavirus does have a lower mortality rate than among people who are admitted to hospitals with pneumonia.

Per Wikipedia:

As of 26 February, 2,766 deaths have been attributed to COVID-19. According to China's NHC, most of those who died were older patients – about 80% of deaths recorded were from those over the age of 60, and 75% had pre-existing health conditions including cardiovascular diseases and diabetes.[39] The case fatality rate has been estimated at around 2–3%.[40]

I apologize for being insensitive to the families of people who died.

You weren't being insensitive, just a bit exaggerated.

 

[bigs22]

There's no point in arguing this forever, but I'll just say that it has a 3% mortality rate (though this number is taken from cases worldwide and therefore a bit weird. South Korea has a 1% mortality rate (where they have govt provided healthcare), but Iran has a 13% mortality rate (with a smaller sample size of 139 cases in Iran as opposed to Korea's 1261 (most of which are centered in the same city)) so I'll admit I'm being hyperbolic, but it's worth noting that Coronavirus does have a lower mortality rate than among people who are admitted to hospitals with pneumonia.

Per Wikipedia:

As of 26 February, 2,766 deaths have been attributed to COVID-19. According to China's NHC, most of those who died were older patients – about 80% of deaths recorded were from those over the age of 60, and 75% had pre-existing health conditions including cardiovascular diseases and diabetes.[39] The case fatality rate has been estimated at around 2–3%.[40]

I apologize for being insensitive to the families of people who died.

The other consideration is that China and Iran may not be as forthcoming about the numbers. There is incentive to downplay their role and response. But you can’t hide deaths as easily as infections, so an accurate total death number with a downplayed total infection number will artificially jack up the mortality rate.

 

[TiredOldLion]

The health and isolation of the athletes might be controllable.
The millions of fans from all over the world might be a bigger concern to Japan. If an outbreak would occur at the games would countries refuse to allow fans to return. Could Japan care for thousands or more sick and maybe more quarantined in place.
It’s going to be a tough decision.
Could they postpone for a year?

 

[Secret Asian Man]

There's no point in arguing this forever, but I'll just say that it has a 3% mortality rate (though this number is taken from cases worldwide and therefore a bit weird. South Korea has a 1% mortality rate (where they have govt provided healthcare), but Iran has a 13% mortality rate (with a smaller sample size of 139 cases in Iran as opposed to Korea's 1261 (most of which are centered in the same city)) so I'll admit I'm being hyperbolic, but it's worth noting that Coronavirus does have a lower mortality rate than among people who are admitted to hospitals with pneumonia.

Per Wikipedia:

As of 26 February, 2,766 deaths have been attributed to COVID-19. According to China's NHC, most of those who died were older patients – about 80% of deaths recorded were from those over the age of 60, and 75% had pre-existing health conditions including cardiovascular diseases and diabetes.[39] The case fatality rate has been estimated at around 2–3%.[40]

I apologize for being insensitive to the families of people who died.

Agreed. Good news right here in terms of mortality rates for developed countries and outcomes of more recent outbreaks


CORONAVIRUS CASES WORLDWIDE

COUNTY - CASES - DEATHS - RECOVERED

CHINA - 78,064 - 2,715 - 29,745
S. KOREA - 1,261 - 12 - 24
JAPAN - 877 - 6 - 33
ITALY - 374 - 12 - 1
IRAN - 139 - 19 - 0
SINGAPORE - 93 - 0 - 58
HONGKONG - 89 - 2 - 18
UNITED STATES - 57 - 0 - 6

 

[El-Jefe]

The health and isolation of the athletes might be controllable.
The millions of fans from all over the world might be a bigger concern to Japan. If an outbreak would occur at the games would countries refuse to allow fans to return. Could Japan care for thousands or more sick and maybe more quarantined in place.
It’s going to be a tough decision.
Could they postpone for a year?

Japan could simply eliminate the greatest risk by denying entry for Chinese citizens, or at the very least those from Hubei Province.

BTW, the disease is under control in Hong Kong, now that they chose to control their border with China.

 

[4rosco]

Agreed. Good news right here in terms of mortality rates for developed countries and outcomes of more recent outbreaks


CORONAVIRUS CASES WORLDWIDE

COUNTY - CASES - DEATHS - RECOVERED

CHINA - 78,064 - 2,715 - 29,745
S. KOREA - 1,261 - 12 - 24
JAPAN - 877 - 6 - 33
ITALY - 374 - 12 - 1
IRAN - 139 - 19 - 0
SINGAPORE - 93 - 0 - 58
HONGKONG - 89 - 2 - 18
UNITED STATES - 57 - 0 - 6

But shouldn't they be looking at the deaths to recovered numbers to get a better picture?

 

[Annieat285]

Japan could simply eliminate the greatest risk by denying entry for Chinese citizens, or at the very least those from Hubei Province.

BTW, the disease is under control in Hong Kong, now that they chose to control their border with China.

A curious note: A particular province in China is denying entry to South Korean citizens in an effort to prevent the spread of the disease. You can't make this stuff up.

 

[psumacw]

But shouldn't they be looking at the deaths to recovered numbers to get a better picture?

it takes longer to be declared a recovery than it does to be declared a death so, while it is a different way of looking at it, it's not a better metric in the moment

 

[El-Jefe]

A curious note: A particular province in China is denying entry to South Korean citizens in an effort to prevent the spread of the disease. You can't make this stuff up.

Commies gonna commie.

 

[4rosco]

it takes longer to be declared a recovery than it does to be declared a death so, while it is a different way of looking at it, it's not a better metric in the moment

But you also don't know if those who haven't recovered their conditions are getting bettor or worse. Are they able to treat the disease

 

[ss7]

A curious note: A particular province in China is denying entry to South Korean citizens in an effort to prevent the spread of the disease. You can't make this stuff up.

Why would someone need to make that up? Seems fairly reasonable.

South Korea has the second most reported cases. Just yesterday almost 100 people had to be quarantined because of suspected cases from people traveling from South Korea to China.

Better control/screening of visitors from places impacted by outbreaks or infections seems like good policy, even for places dealing with outbreaks or infections themselves.

 

[Annieat285]

Why would someone need to make that up? Seems fairly reasonable.

South Korea has the second most reported cases. Just yesterday almost 100 people had to be quarantined because of suspected cases from people traveling from South Korea to China.

Better control/screening of visitors from places impacted by outbreaks or infections seems like good policy, even for places dealing with outbreaks or infections themselves.

Of course it's a good method in practice, it's just a tad humorous that the country in which 96% of reported cases have occurred has decided to ban someone from anywhere else from going there.

 

[El-Jefe]

Of course it's a good method in practice, it's just a tad humorous that the country in which 96% of reported cases have occurred has decided to ban someone from anywhere else from going there.

Third world dictator finds a way to blame his problems on an external bogeyman, aided and abetted by his state-run media.

That's what they do.

 

[ss7]

Third world dictator finds a way to blame his problems on an external bogeyman, aided and abetted by his state-run media.

That's what they do.

I can see the direction this is going, and I don't want to turn this into the dumpster fire that is the politics board.

I'll just say that a policy of restricting access from places with known infections seems sound to me and doesn't necessarily establish blame.

 

[Dogwelder]

Wrong place and wrong people with whom to discuss science. Not a good thread.

 

[pawrestlersintn]

Wrong place and wrong people with whom to discuss science. Not a good thread.

Overgeneralization and condescension all rolled up into one short message.

 

[dmm53]

Fun with statistics.

The 1st article compares the death rate of Corona virus, where the vast majority of cases have occurred in Wu Han province, to the death rate of the flu in the US. Apples and oranges. Your politics are showing.

Let's be clear: the current administration (which is extremely and patently anti-science) made the comparison. The article only reported and critiqued the comparison

 

[GogglesPaizano]

Sad but I would say 50/50 chance the games get cancelled. Yeah, I know the officials say 10% but I think everything we are being fed now is filtered to better manage this crisis. Let's revisit this one in 30 days and we will know a lot more.

 

[Dogwelder]

Overgeneralization and condescension all rolled up into one short message.

This is a wrestling forum! So it’s the wrong place.

Regarding wrong people, the posts speak for themselves. People (you and others) are injecting politics and chauvinism (“commies”) into a fundamentally science/statistics inquiry and defending hyperbole in ways that are so pathetic that where would one even begin? (Start with: pneumonia is no freaking joke, why would anyone think being better than pneumonia is something comforting?)

Some of you guys would be good to talk science with (ss7 for sure, dmm and others probably), but on the whole, this group is not a science-oriented group.

 

[pawrestlersintn]

This is a wrestling forum! So it’s the wrong place.

Regarding wrong people, the posts speak for themselves. People (you and others) are injecting politics and chauvinism (“commies”) into a fundamentally science/statistics inquiry and defending hyperbole in ways that are so pathetic that where would one even begin? (Start with: pneumonia is no freaking joke, why would anyone think being better than pneumonia is something comforting?)

Some of you guys would be good to talk science with (ss7 for sure, dmm probably), but on the whole, this group is not a science-oriented group.

Okay, Ban.

 

[Lyons212]

Now that their are cases in countries that are more forthcoming with facts, we will probably know a lot more in a month or so. One of the real challenges is that the virus apparently can be spread by the person who is not showing symptoms. Basically screening is not going to help prevent the spread since the carriers are not showing symptoms. At least right now, unless countries want to go to severe travel restrictions, this will be difficult to contain based upon current knowledge.

 

[eddy line]

There's no point in arguing this forever, but I'll just say that it has a 3% mortality rate (though this number is taken from cases worldwide and therefore a bit weird. South Korea has a 1% mortality rate (where they have govt provided healthcare), but Iran has a 13% mortality rate (with a smaller sample size of 139 cases in Iran as opposed to Korea's 1261 (most of which are centered in the same city)) so I'll admit I'm being hyperbolic, but it's worth noting that Coronavirus does have a lower mortality rate than among people who are admitted to hospitals with pneumonia.

Per Wikipedia:

As of 26 February, 2,766 deaths have been attributed to COVID-19. According to China's NHC, most of those who died were older patients – about 80% of deaths recorded were from those over the age of 60, and 75% had pre-existing health conditions including cardiovascular diseases and diabetes.[39] The case fatality rate has been estimated at around 2–3%.[40]

I apologize for being insensitive to the families of people who died.

Here are a few more stats:

While it's true that Coronavirus has a relatively low mortality rate, it is apparently highly contagious. By some estimates, 40% to 70% of the world's population will get it. So let's work through the numbers using "conservative" figures. The world's population is about 8 billion. If 40% get Coronavirus, that 3.2 billion people. If 3% die, that's 96 million deaths. Let that sink in: 96 million deaths.

(To be clear, I am not predicting there will be that many deaths. Hopefully, it will be a small fraction of that number. But even if the infection and mortality rates are significantly lower, this is a serious illness, with significant health, economic, and social implications.)

This is a good read: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

 

[Annieat285]

Here are a few more stats:

While it's true that Coronavirus has a relatively low mortality rate, it is apparently highly contagious. By some estimates, 40% to 70% of the world's population will get it. So let's work through the numbers using "conservative" figures. The world's population is about 8 billion. If 40% get Coronavirus, that 3.2 billion people. If 3% die, that's 96 million deaths. Let that sink in: 96 million deaths.

This is a good read: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

And this is precisely why the Olympics represent such a challenge to public safety. You have people from a great number of countries gathering together in a relatively small space, should any of them catch Coronavirus it could very well spread among media members, volunteers, athletes, logistical personnel etc. All those people would assuredly want to go back to their own countries after the event, but given the disease's incubation period it's very possible they won't have been identified as carrying the disease until after they are back.

The original point of this thread isn't to argue over the potency of the disease or the politics behind it (though it quickly diverted in that direction), it's more that the Olympics, though prestigious and of historical importance, particularly to wrestling, represent the perfect opportunity for the disease to spread to countries all over the world in rapid fashion. How the IOC handles this is up in the air at this point, but Mr. Pound seems to believe the most likely scenario, should Coronavirus not be resolved to a suitable degree is canceling the Olympics altogether.

Such a decision would have huge implications on current wrestlers from all over the world and, while those would be petty compared to the potential loss of life that might be incurred should the disease spread, you can't deny that wrestlers prepare their entire lives to wrestle at the Olmpyics and even great wrestlers (like Frank Molinaro) may only get one shot to qualify and attend. It would be a real shame if Kyle Dake/DT or a number of other wrestlers missed their first chance at attending the Olympics, especially when you consider David Taylor will be 33 next time they roll around.

 

[dmm53]

Piece on Japan and the Olympics:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/...l?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

 

[District four]

Scarlett Johansson. Just saying lol

 

[nerfstate]

Scarlett Johansson. Just saying lol

I’m afraid your post was lost in translation.

 

[Dogwelder]

I’m afraid your post was lost in translation.

The post makes perfect sense on ghost world.

 

[nerfstate]

The post makes perfect sense on ghost world.

We can all sit here in the US and speculate, but I know I for one am the man who wasn’t there.

 

[lookleft goright]

Am I the only one who is getting tired of all the crisis' that we are facing? We have had 3-4 predicted winter storm watch that could have spelled catastrophe for all of mankind in its wake and we ended up with about 1/2 to 1 inch of snow each time this year.
We had the aids virus that was going to wipe out the world. We had global warming that was going to sink cities and boil the oceans and now we have coronavirus and someone is predicting 40-70 percent infected and 96 million people dying.
OMG stop with all the fear mongering. The olympics will not be cancelled for this latest tragedy/crisis/world destroying virus.

 

[Dogwelder]

Am I the only one who is getting tired of all the crisis' that we are facing? We have had 3-4 predicted winter storm watch that could have spelled catastrophe for all of mankind in its wake and we ended up with about 1/2 to 1 inch of snow each time this year.
We had the aids virus that was going to wipe out the world. We had global warming that was going to sink cities and boil the oceans and now we have coronavirus and someone is predicting 40-70 percent infected and 96 million people dying.
OMG stop with all the fear mongering. The olympics will not be cancelled for this latest tragedy/crisis/world destroying virus.

Can you post it again? My reception is real bad here in my Y2K bunker.

 

[District four]

Can you post it again? My reception is real bad here in my Y2K bunker.

Lol

 

[Unbiased_football_fan]

Mortality rates are extremely non-linear with age. If you are 60+ this is something you should pay attention to. Not panic, but pay attention. You don't need to worry about your kids.

A group that does this work for a living that I highly respect has the Ro at 4.7 to 6.2, that is impossible to contain. That is from agent-based modeling prior to the restrictions being in place in China. The initial quarantine period of 14 days was based on a sample size of 10 people where they fit a probability distribution to the data and 14 days was the 95th percentile. Let that sink in.

I work in risk analysis/management and model dynamic systems. A real risk to you here in the US is losing access to medications that you may take for other conditions. Supply chains are being broken. You should try to find out where your medications are made and if possible get some extra.

Where this is headed will be very clear in at most 45 days. Viruses don't care whether you are red or blue.

 

[impalanut]

I don't have any specific information about this strain of coronavirus, but as a physician I am capable of reading the literature.
We have been unable, historically, to contain any viral strain that is easily communicable, has a period of time before symptoms are obvious where it is transmissible, and has a relatively low mortality rate.
We controlled ebola because it was highly fatal in a short term.
We controlled SARS because it was hard to transmit.
We won't contain this virus, it's just a matter of time before it spreads around the world.

 

[lookleft goright]

I don't have any specific information about this strain of coronavirus, but as a physician I am capable of reading the literature.
We have been unable, historically, to contain any viral strain that is easily communicable, has a period of time before symptoms are obvious where it is transmissible, and has a relatively low mortality rate.
We controlled ebola because it was highly fatal in a short term.
We controlled SARS because it was hard to transmit.
We won't contain this virus, it's just a matter of time before it spreads around the world.

Then I say what is all the big fuss about. Let it spread and deal with it when it does.

 

[Dogwelder]

Then I say what is all the big fuss about. Let it spread and deal with it when it does.

It seems we should have some middle level of response for the type of thing that would be ubiquitous like the flu but more deadly than flu and less deadly than ebola. Something stronger than just washing hands frequently. I hope there would be something easier and more elegant than gas masks for everyone all the time.