Great article from Barrons
Given that owner housing accounts for nearly a quarter of the consumer price index, Carson guesses that the CPI would be rising at double-digit rates similar to those in the 1970s if the index were calculated the old way.
However it’s measured, inflation is taking a toll on consumers. After the impact of higher prices, real hourly earnings are down 1.7% from their level a year ago, according to TLR on the Economy, while real weekly earnings are down 1.4% after a 0.4% uptick in the average workweek. Real wages for production workers have slid 2.2%, and their real weekly earnings are off 1.6%, when a slightly longer workweek is taken into consideration.
So, workers are earning less in real terms than they were at this time in 2020. That might help further explain the widely noted 9 million jobs that are unfilled despite continued unemployment, in addition to the other frequently cited factors, such as generous supplementary jobless benefits, child-care needs, and ongoing concerns about Covid-19.
After taking inflation into account, real retail sales also are slumping, as David Rosenberg, the eponym of Rosenberg Research, points out. And that’s despite the higher-than-expected 0.6% overall increase in June, which he said was all inflation-related, with actual volumes down, and followed a downward revision to May’s data to show a 1.7% decline instead of the 1.3% drop originally estimated.
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https://www.barrons.com/articles/di...s-style-stagflation-51626456922?siteid=yhoof2
Given that owner housing accounts for nearly a quarter of the consumer price index, Carson guesses that the CPI would be rising at double-digit rates similar to those in the 1970s if the index were calculated the old way.
However it’s measured, inflation is taking a toll on consumers. After the impact of higher prices, real hourly earnings are down 1.7% from their level a year ago, according to TLR on the Economy, while real weekly earnings are down 1.4% after a 0.4% uptick in the average workweek. Real wages for production workers have slid 2.2%, and their real weekly earnings are off 1.6%, when a slightly longer workweek is taken into consideration.
So, workers are earning less in real terms than they were at this time in 2020. That might help further explain the widely noted 9 million jobs that are unfilled despite continued unemployment, in addition to the other frequently cited factors, such as generous supplementary jobless benefits, child-care needs, and ongoing concerns about Covid-19.
After taking inflation into account, real retail sales also are slumping, as David Rosenberg, the eponym of Rosenberg Research, points out. And that’s despite the higher-than-expected 0.6% overall increase in June, which he said was all inflation-related, with actual volumes down, and followed a downward revision to May’s data to show a 1.7% decline instead of the 1.3% drop originally estimated.
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https://www.barrons.com/articles/di...s-style-stagflation-51626456922?siteid=yhoof2
