Big 10 Predicted Win Totals
- Thread starter EdwardoCarrachio
- Start date
Aug. 31 at West Virginia 6.5 Wins
Sept. 7 vs. Bowling Green ???
Sept. 14 bye week
Sept. 21 vs. Kent State ???
Sept. 28 vs. Illinois* 5.5 Wins
Oct. 5 vs. UCLA* 5.5 Wins
Oct. 12 at USC* 7.5 Wins
Oct. 19 bye week
Oct. 26 at Wisconsin* 6.5 Wins
Nov. 2 vs. Ohio State* 10.5 Wins
Nov. 9 vs. Washington* 7.5 Wins
Nov. 16 at Purdue* 4.5 Wins
Nov. 23 at Minnesota* 5 Wins
Nov. 30 vs. Maryland* 7 Wins
Sept. 7 vs. Bowling Green ???
Sept. 14 bye week
Sept. 21 vs. Kent State ???
Sept. 28 vs. Illinois* 5.5 Wins
Oct. 5 vs. UCLA* 5.5 Wins
Oct. 12 at USC* 7.5 Wins
Oct. 19 bye week
Oct. 26 at Wisconsin* 6.5 Wins
Nov. 2 vs. Ohio State* 10.5 Wins
Nov. 9 vs. Washington* 7.5 Wins
Nov. 16 at Purdue* 4.5 Wins
Nov. 23 at Minnesota* 5 Wins
Nov. 30 vs. Maryland* 7 Wins
That’s a pretty weak schedule, at first glance, with Ohio State the only game and that’s at home.
Still think WVa is a trap game right out of the gate. USC and Wisconsin will be tough… Washington could be difficult because of the typical O$U hangover and Minnesota could be sneaky tough, too.
Still think WVa is a trap game right out of the gate. USC and Wisconsin will be tough… Washington could be difficult because of the typical O$U hangover and Minnesota could be sneaky tough, too.
Weaker than I initially thought but ranked as one of the toughest in the country by multiple outlets. Here they have us as 14th hardest schedule. https://collegefootballnews.com/ran...ule-rankings-easiest-to-hardest-1-to-134-2024
Note, most schedules aren't super tough. Plus, according to the odds there are as many as 9 bowl teams on that schedule. The good news is that there is only one game that on paper we should lose. There are a few as you point out that have the potential to be losses. But we are expected to have 9.5 wins for a reason.
In comparison, both Michigan and Ohio State play Oregon -- Oregon will be preseason top-4. And Michigan gets Texas in the OOC.
We got dealt the best hand of the three.
Michigan's is brutal. Texas at home early is going to be tough with all of Michigan's changes. They have USC at home and Washington away. They still could make it through all of that unscathed or with 2-3 losses. Oregon at home is a toss-up and Ohio St away should be a loss except if Day clenches up because they are in his head now. The good thing for them is that they always have weaker teams before each of the tougher teams. So it at least sets up well that way. I'd predict 3 losses for Michigan (thinking 2 to 4 is likely).
Ohio St only has 4, maybe 5 teams that could even challenge them on their schedule. Iowa at home will at least be a physical game but likely easy win. At Oregon the next week may possibly catch them at the wrong time having finally taken some body shots after an embarrassingly cupcake 1st month of the season. Then a week off and Nebraska who seems to be improving at home. Then at Penn St. Then a month of weak teams to prepare for Michigan at home.
I'd say PSU and Ohio St are almost the same difficulty. We have more teams that are threats (depends on how good Washington and USC are this year) but they do have Oregon and Penn St and bunch of weaker teams.
Michigan's schedule is easily the hardest.
If you're an Ohio State or a Georgia or a Bama, it really doesn't matter whether you're playing an 8-4 team or a 4-8 team. Those teams only rarely jump up and beat them (like Purdue did to OSU or South Carolina did to Georgia). The teams to beat OSU and Georgia are fellow top-tier teams.
So in that sense, OSU, has three of them on their schedule -- Oregon, us, and Michigan. We only have one of those teams. Of course, that could change if USC or Washington prove to be better than expected. I personally think UW is losing way too much to be more than an 8-4 team, and USC is going to have a rough transition to a physical conference like the Big Ten.
Agree that Michigan has the toughest.
I think you are trying to convince yourself that USC and Washington aren't a threat.
Washington was the consensus #2 team in the country last year. Yes, they lost a lot, but not more than Michigan did. If you don't want to count them as a legit threat on our schedule, then you can't count Michigan on Ohio St's. Washington may well be the better team in 2024.
And USC has been very explosive and has brought in some people to improve their defense. They are not as strong as Oregon, but we also have more teams that are likely bowl teams than Ohio St does. We legitimately could play 9 bowl bound teams out of a 12 game schedule. That takes a toll. Ohio St doesn't even start playing Power 5 football for an entire month. Then they start off with Mich St who is projected at 4.5 wins this year. They really only have to play half a season.
Washington lost almost everybody from that team -- Penix, all the WRs, their OL, most of their defense, and their coaching staff. They are an entirely unknown unit. Who cares if they were #2 last year?
Michigan is returning far better pieces than Washington. A top-tier RB, a top-tier TE, and huge returnees on the DL and in the secondary.
There's a reason why virtually everybody has Michigan a preseason top-10 team and nobody has Washington even sniffing that level.
USC went 8-5 last year with the #1 pick in the NFL draft at QB. Lincoln Riley will never field the kind of defenses to win the Big Ten. They could win 9 games, but they're hardly on Oregon's level. People get caught up with the USC name brand, but as a team, we'll see what they're made of.
You also described Michigan. Lost their coach, lost their QB #10 overall draft pick, lost 13 NFL players total (2 more than next highest, 3 more than Washington). BTW Oregon and PSU lost 8 NFL players each. So the 3 supposed tough teams on Ohio St's schedule have lost an average of half of their players to the NFL.
The more you dig into this, the easier it appears Ohio St's schedule should be.
LOL. You are all over the place.
If "returning starters" is your new metric, then USC + Washington combined bring back a total of 9 starters from last year. Which greatly diminishes our schedule and thus YOUR argument.
Oregon brings in Dillon Gabriel and arguably the best transfer class in the country. And an elite recruiting class. Nike money + Dan Lanning = reloading. They'll be on everybody's top 5 list going into the season. They'd be clear favorites against us on a neutral field.
So, let’s look at this conversely. Given the win numbers, the the loss numbers would be:
Aug. 31 at West Virginia 5.5 Losses
Sept. 7 vs. Bowling Green ??
Sept. 21 vs. Kent State ???
Sept. 28 vs. Illinois* 6.5 Losses
Oct. 5 vs. UCLA* 6.5 Losses
Oct. 12 at USC* 4.5 Losses
Oct. 26 at Wisconsin* 5.5 Losses
Nov. 2 vs. Ohio State* 1.5 Losses
Nov. 9 vs. Washington* 4.5 Losses
Nov. 16 at Purdue* 7.5 Losses
Nov. 23 at Minnesota* 7 Losses
Nov. 30 vs. Maryland* 5 Losses
There have been mentions of USC and Washington being difficult games. If you’re a fan of those teams and looking at 4.5 losses, wouldn’t one of them be against Penn State, or would you think you would beat Penn State and still suffer 4-5 other losses? Does WVU beat Penn State and still lose 5-6 other games? From this viewpoint the 9-10 wins for Penn State looks about right with losses to tOSU and maybe one other.
Aug. 31 at West Virginia 5.5 Losses
Sept. 7 vs. Bowling Green ??
Sept. 21 vs. Kent State ???
Sept. 28 vs. Illinois* 6.5 Losses
Oct. 5 vs. UCLA* 6.5 Losses
Oct. 12 at USC* 4.5 Losses
Oct. 26 at Wisconsin* 5.5 Losses
Nov. 2 vs. Ohio State* 1.5 Losses
Nov. 9 vs. Washington* 4.5 Losses
Nov. 16 at Purdue* 7.5 Losses
Nov. 23 at Minnesota* 7 Losses
Nov. 30 vs. Maryland* 5 Losses
There have been mentions of USC and Washington being difficult games. If you’re a fan of those teams and looking at 4.5 losses, wouldn’t one of them be against Penn State, or would you think you would beat Penn State and still suffer 4-5 other losses? Does WVU beat Penn State and still lose 5-6 other games? From this viewpoint the 9-10 wins for Penn State looks about right with losses to tOSU and maybe one other.
You are all over the place. The point was Michigan lost more than any team in the country, their coach, the #10 overall pick QB, 13 total draft picks (3 more than Washington). So if you don't want to count Washington as a threat on our schedule than you also cannot count Michigan as a threat on Ohio St's schedule.
So which is it? Do you want to count #1 Michigan (lost 13 NFL players and coach) and #2 Washington (lost 10 NFL players and coach) as threats on the schedule or are you saying that they lost too much? They were the top 2 teams last year and both lost an awful lot. But you cannot say one is a threat this year and the other isn't. They are in the exact same position. Great 2023 team, lost more than just about any other teams in the country.
Using a silly singular "returning players" metric to determine how good a team is supposed to be is absolutely nonsensical, and that's the game you're playing.
Iowa is returning like 18 players, and Oregon is returning 10. Oregon would boat race them.
In the portal era, "returning players" means little when you can buy elite talent from other schools. Oregon has done tremendously better in the portal and in recruiting than USC or Washington. By orders of magnitude.
And Michigan returns far more important pieces than Washington, and much more depth. They'll have one of the best defenses in the country. Washington won't.
Clearly the preseason prognosticators agree with me. This very thread -- the thread you posted -- shows that. There's obviously no guarantee actual results materialize that way, but from a strictly preseason perspective, our schedule is not as difficult as a schedule that includes Oregon and Michigan.
I guess you're easily offended by the notion that our schedule isn't as tough as Michigan or OSU, and we should be grateful for that......and hopefully take advantage. But then, some people get offended more easily than others.
Who has argued that Oregon won't be a threat? No one. Stop arguing against yourself. You are most likely trying obfuscate the point below.
Now, #1 Michigan lost their coach, their top 10 draft pick QB, and 13 NFL players. Yes, they aren't likely going to have a losing season. But they are just as much of a wildcard as #2 Washington who lost their coach, their top 10 draft pick QB, and 10 NFL players. Michigan could finish better than Washington, but they could also finish worse. Both teams were at the top last year and lost more than any other teams in the country. Treat them essentially the same. One cannot be considered much differently than the other. They are in almost an identical situation.
According to this preseason rankings, we face 5 top 35 teams:
#2 Ohio St, #25 USC, #26 Wisconsin, #27 WVA, and #31 Washington
For comparison Ohio St faces 4 (fewer teams that are a threat but more that are top 15):
#4 Oregon, #10 Michigan, #12 PSU, and #23 Iowa
Michigan faces 5:
#2 Ohio St, #3 Texas, #4 Oregon, #25 USC, and #31 Washington (2,3, and 4, yikes!)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/college-football-post-spring-top-25-rankings/
#2 Ohio St, #25 USC, #26 Wisconsin, #27 WVA, and #31 Washington
For comparison Ohio St faces 4 (fewer teams that are a threat but more that are top 15):
#4 Oregon, #10 Michigan, #12 PSU, and #23 Iowa
Michigan faces 5:
#2 Ohio St, #3 Texas, #4 Oregon, #25 USC, and #31 Washington (2,3, and 4, yikes!)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/college-football-post-spring-top-25-rankings/
The bottom line is it’s tough to get a good grasp on wins/ losses in preseason. Teams that are ranked highly in preseason polls may not be seen at years end and some unranked or lower ranked teams can be underrated.
2023 preseason. (2023 Final)
1. Georgia. (Michigan)
2. Michigan. (Washington)
3. Ohio State. (Texas)
4. Alabama. (Georgia)
5. LSU. (Alabama)
6. USC. (Florida State)
7. Penn State. (Oregon)
8. Florida State. (Missouri)
9. Clemson. (Mississippi)
10. Washington. (Ohio St)
11. Texas. (Arizona)
12. Tennessee (LSU)
13. Notre Dame (Penn St)
14. Utah. (Notre Dame)
15. Oregon. (Oklahoma)
16. Kansas St. (Oklahoma State)
17. TCU. (Tennessee)
18. Oregon St. (Kansas St)
19. Wisconsin (Louisville)
20. Oklahoma. (Clemson)
21. North Carolina (NC St)
22 Mississippi (SMU)
23. Texas A&M. (Kansas)
24. Tulane (Iowa)
25. Iowa (Liberty)
I think it's probably absurd to call Michigan a top 10 team TODAY. Any ranking that does so is merely giving them a historical advantage a la all of Notre Dame's and Texas's preseason "they will be good" notions. I do believe they have some really strong pieces returning (and in reality, the strength you return is much more important than the numbers you return) and they have good recruiting classes to bolster their roster. This is a 17-25 type of team on paper until they do something on the field.
Washington. They are historically up and down. It's more likely they are the '24 version of '23 TCU (ranked based off last year before ending up with a losing record) than they sniff the playoff. They brought in a decent QB, but probably not the QB/WR combo they expected hiring Fisch from Arizona. They didn't recruit well previously either so I find it tough to project them well until they do something.
Washington. They are historically up and down. It's more likely they are the '24 version of '23 TCU (ranked based off last year before ending up with a losing record) than they sniff the playoff. They brought in a decent QB, but probably not the QB/WR combo they expected hiring Fisch from Arizona. They didn't recruit well previously either so I find it tough to project them well until they do something.
I don't think anyone would claim our schedule is tougher than either of those--and, sorry, but WVU is only 27th because they play in a weak Big XII so the theory is they can win 8-9 games if they beat bad teams.
Were you the guy they said predicted WVA as like a 4 win team last year? Thought I saw that on old threads.
Saw in old threads under your old screen name.
And no that's not what I said but reading was never your strong point.
Michigan's biggest loss from last year is Connor Stallions
Holy smokes, I suppose just fully disregard anything that guy has to say about football. Maybe he just doesn't follow it very well.
I'm one of the few here that actually follows it nationally without bias. Lazydave is one of the few others
Just looked up current odds on fanduel
Penn State is -172 over 9.5
Penn State is +140 under 9.5
With the schedule they have and not playing Oregon or Michigan there should be no excuses to not be over 9.5
Penn State is -172 over 9.5
Penn State is +140 under 9.5
With the schedule they have and not playing Oregon or Michigan there should be no excuses to not be over 9.5
We probably should but the odds there tell you that it is nearly as likely that we are under. If it were a slam dunk over, they would increase the win total. Odds makers generally don't make money giving up slam dunk bets.
Money is on the over so far. 9.5 is a fair number and I would be disappointed if Penn state wasn’t over
Yes, from those odds slight favor to the over but like I said, it isn't a no brainer. I'd be disappointed with under as well.
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