LOL ... click on Resume ... and? You're only quoting SOR ... explain how that trumps FPI and other indicators. And ... go ...
Also, explain how that would change if ND wins out and PSU loses one of its final 4 regular season games. And ... go ...
Initial CFP rankings out tonight
- Thread starter Jerry
- Start date
Also, explain how that would change if ND wins out and PSU loses one of its final 4 regular season games. And ... go ...
Tonight went to chalk
We're ahead of Indiana and BYU
We're ahead of Tennessee
We're comparable to Texas
Big Ten has 1/2--you all underestimate how the Big Ten is viewed
We're ahead of Indiana and BYU
We're ahead of Tennessee
We're comparable to Texas
Big Ten has 1/2--you all underestimate how the Big Ten is viewed
We're 6th but can't lose another game and be assured of a playoff spot. Correct.
We can
As soon as Bama popped at 11 I was proven correct then it just got infinitely better with us ahead of BYU Indiana ND and Tennessee
The Big Ten, including Penn State, is valued more than you think
I mean, people keep claiming if we win out the highest we'll be seeded is 7th which, while possible, is already where we're at. Great chance if we win out we jump Texas.
WTF?!?!
You don't even know what you're saying. What the hell were you proven correct about?
What a mess you are.
If Bama wins out (beating LSU in the process), we drop below them with a loss to ... say ... Minny. 100%.
Actually higher than one of the polls
I don't understand why everyone keeps claiming analytics hate us (they don't) or we're going to be lower in this poll
We saw our floor with where Bama is ranked--if we lose we drop to 10 or 11 assuming everyone between us and 12 don't lose which, I think you know, isn't possible.
Not sure how you didn't follow that.
Color me pleasantly surprised. I thought the best we could hope for was #7. But it doesn't change my mind about the perils of losing another game.
People don’t understand who you lose too now is just as important as who you beat
You see that a team that already has 2 losses is in the playoff, right?
And you think we'll fall how many spots by losing?
I just don't understand the illogicalness. I'm 100% convinced people are focused on this "we don't deserve it" if we aren't 12-0 and beat Ohio State because of our schedule but that's not how it works.
LOL. That's completely untrue. On what basis would we be ranked above Bama, if we both had 2 losses? We'd both have losses to good squads, we'd both have losses to unranked squads (Vandy likely to be unranked with a tough schedule ahead of them), and they'd have actual quality wins, unlike us.
You just keep stating things without support. TRY. AT LEAST TRY TO MAKE SENSE AND SUPPORT YOUR STANCES. JUST ONCE.
And it was a game in which we dropped a TD pass and got stuffed instead the 5 against the team the committee thinks is the 2nd best in the country. I think we're closer to Texas than Tennessee.
We don't have to be above them if we have two losses but that's as far as we fall.
Bama would be ahead of us but we're still in the top 12 safely--this proved that
You understand we're 6th today and you're still refusing to acknowledge that.
And Minnesota nor Washington are close to our level
Even if people are frustrated with our offense right now--the defense alone can win those games
Right ... which is why we can't take an L going forward, since we don't play anyone meaningful. Other "contenders" have the opportunity to make moves up the "leaderboard" with big wins, or their losses won't be "bad" losses ... we're stuck with needing to sweep the board in order to DEFINITELY secure a spot. Granted, still ways to get in given all the possibilities of losses among contenders ... but you want to be solidly in there, no question ... and to do that, we need to win out.
@PurposePitch
And if you're seriously focused on "quality wins" please look at how Indiana and BYU are ranked
BYU beat SMU and K-State by about 30 who are ranked
And if you're seriously focused on "quality wins" please look at how Indiana and BYU are ranked
BYU beat SMU and K-State by about 30 who are ranked
Oh look--all four of them agree if BYU loses in CCG they'll be out now
Someday instead of arguing with me you'll just listen
Someday instead of arguing with me you'll just listen
Being 6 is a nice surprise but we have to account for the non-conference champions in front of us and conference champions below.
BYU would move up to 4 which would push PSU down to the 7 seed. Today that gets us Tennessee at home but a lot will change over the next six weeks.
If PSU wins out I think we end up at 4, maybe higher depending on how CCG losers are treated. If PSU ends at 4 I think we get the 5 seed - the most optimal, with a chance of ending up at 6, still not bad.
BYU would move up to 4 which would push PSU down to the 7 seed. Today that gets us Tennessee at home but a lot will change over the next six weeks.
If PSU wins out I think we end up at 4, maybe higher depending on how CCG losers are treated. If PSU ends at 4 I think we get the 5 seed - the most optimal, with a chance of ending up at 6, still not bad.
That makes absolutely NO sense. No, it doesn't prove that.
SMU is currently behind us ... and not in the top 12. If they win the ACC (i.e. they win out) ... do they stay behind us if we lose, dummy?
We don't need them to lose because other teams in that top 12 have to lose as they play each other--keep up kiddo
The math says we're in
Go to ESPN and play with the predictor yourself.
LOL. You poor thing. I already explained it to you. You haven't countered it. Just made baseless, unsupported assertions.
The playoff predictor doesn't cover multiple team what-if scenarios. Oy. You're awful at thinking.
Did you watch the show--they all agreed BYU has to win to get in and Big XII is a 1 bid league
That means, even in your made up scenario the worst we could have been was 13
But, today showed that even with another loss we have a comfortable lead on multiple teams including Indiana and ND.
You're trying to create a scenario but the math doesn't work
Play with the predictor--maybe it will teach you about data.
ESPN just said historical data proves a 3 loss team likely will get in but a 2 loss Penn State ranked 6th today won't lol
We're SIXTH
We're SIXTH
Important games this week. These are under the premise that we lose a 2nd game because if we win out, these would only matter for seeding.
UGA vs Ole Miss. We are big Dawg fans here. Ole Miss wins and they probably win out and steal a spot.
Indiana vs Michigan. As much as I hate to say it, go Wolverines. I think we could beat IU for a spot on brand, but I wouldn't want to tempt it.
Bama vs LSU. Straight up elimination game here, but I think it's best if LSU wins this as they could still lose another game with their schedule; Bama likely is winning out.
BYU vs Utah. With Iowa State losing, now we cheer for all BYU opponents. I'm not sure 2 Big 12 teams can get in now, but I wouldn't want to tempt it.
Upsets can always occur in other games, but none particularly stood out to me.
UGA vs Ole Miss. We are big Dawg fans here. Ole Miss wins and they probably win out and steal a spot.
Indiana vs Michigan. As much as I hate to say it, go Wolverines. I think we could beat IU for a spot on brand, but I wouldn't want to tempt it.
Bama vs LSU. Straight up elimination game here, but I think it's best if LSU wins this as they could still lose another game with their schedule; Bama likely is winning out.
BYU vs Utah. With Iowa State losing, now we cheer for all BYU opponents. I'm not sure 2 Big 12 teams can get in now, but I wouldn't want to tempt it.
Upsets can always occur in other games, but none particularly stood out to me.
Who are "they"? Commentators with no authority? And that's if other teams don't lose, sparky ... they would have to win, according to them (who have no authority), if the other teams don't lose. Oy. Again, you're so bad at thinking.
If BYU doesn't lose until their CCG, and we lose to Wash or Minny (or worse), we very likely drop behind BYU, too. Losing a CCG is different than losing to some schmoe team during the regular season.
And what does BYU have to do with what I said? Again, you just keep saying stupid shit ... moving around, trying to say as many dumb things as possible, hoping nobody pins you down. I talked about SMU jumping us if they win the CCG.
Notre Dame is 10th, dumbass. If they win out, and we lose, we drop behind them. Obviously. Just like we drop behind Alabama, who is currently 11th.
ND at home would be awesome
Excellent analysis.
Two things we know: A) if we win out, we're in and have a home game to boot; and B) if we lose a 2nd game, we have to rely on the outcomes of other games and the votes of assorted committee outsiders.
History has not been kind to us with regard to (B). Therefore, win out and make the whole thing academic. Honestly, we have no excuse for losing to anyone left on the schedule.
Yes, when one team losses another wins and vise versa--good that oyu figure that out
The Big XII is a 1 bid league--tonight proved that--see where they're all ranked--they're considered a G5 league
BYU is a team you need to be ahead of us in your scenario--SMU/Miami doesn't hurt us. We're fine with two ACC teams
ND is 10th--correct--we won't drop behind them with a loss.
Georgia Tech (v. Miami) is a dog by fewer points than Michigan to Indiana. Iowa St. is barely favored v. Kansas.
I think the 7 seed is the ceiling unless SEC teams start getting upset beyond the ranked vs ranked games. I think how a team plays in ccg games matters too. Texas can't lose by 21+ to UGA and carry the 6 seed, but I could be wrong.
Probably could have listed Miami vs GT. I just think Michigan winning is much more important to us than a Miami loss. Unless we think SMU wins out and beats Miami. In that scenario, let's pull for GT.
Iowa State isn't getting in unless they win out and I don't think BYU is either. SMU is in the same boat.
