Can we sneak into the Tourney?
- Thread starter Nittany1997
- Start date
not without winning the Big Tourney
Zero chance at an at-large bid. Good news is we’ve really put ourselves in position to get a bye Wednesday, so it would be 4 games in 4 days. We’ll need to win a couple of them easily though if we don’t want Ace playing 160 minutes across the 4 days (he’s been such a warrior as of late going the distance game after game with no drop in his play).
The way they played yesterday that team could do some damage in the BIG10 tournament or the NCAA tournament maybe they can play there way into the NIT.
The losses to VCU, Bucknell, Texas Am, Georgia Tech, and Butler were huge. Win 3 of those and they’d go from 14-14 to 17-11 with a shot at the ncaas.
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Winning 2 straight is making people forget about losing 3 straight.
I’d hope so, but he’d certainly have other options if he wants to pursue them.
One good thing about NIL is that these players make enough money to make considering another year in college worthwhile. In the old days getting a couple hundred grand made hoping pro no brainer.
Now, injury is less a concern if you money in the bank. And playing another year may get you a better draft position.
The game threads for basketball are probably worse than football. I'll scroll through and think we are losing by 20 and check the score; up by 2 at halftime.
Winning cures all and losing means throw the baby out with the bathwater.
I don’t think the game threads are as bad, but what are way worse are when they win a couple in a row and people automatically think that means they can get in the tournament. It’s like they forgot about the three losses to teams in the lower 50 of all of NCAA division one.
It as soon as we lose one, we’re horrible and have completely forgotten how to play basketball…as if the other team has no impact on whether we win or lose.
If we won the next three in a row, we have a chance. However, two of them are on the road. It’s a very outside chance at this point. Frankly, we’re playing as well as all but a handful of teams in the conference. We’ve had more talented teams, but only a small number.
We'd have no chance...it's all about winning it in Minneapolis at this point.
I'd love to find our way into the 7/10 game, as I see that as our best path in the B1G tourney.
I don’t think we could beat Purdue - I’d give a chance in most of the other games
Just trying to be positive, I know it is a long shot, but any team in this conference is a 50/50 game except for Purdue, and upsets can happen.
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Last 8 games:
Clary out - win
Clary out - win
Clary limited to. 18 minutes - win *
Clary in - loss
Clary in - loss
Clary out- loss. <<==anamoly
Clary out - win
Clary out - win
Clary out = win 80% of the time
Clary in = lose 67% of the time
Limited to less than half his typical playing time so this data point is throw out.
We need more data to prove the theory, but it's sure looking like a trend.
Clary out - win
Clary out - win
Clary limited to. 18 minutes - win *
Clary in - loss
Clary in - loss
Clary out- loss. <<==anamoly
Clary out - win
Clary out - win
Clary out = win 80% of the time
Clary in = lose 67% of the time
Limited to less than half his typical playing time so this data point is throw out.
We need more data to prove the theory, but it's sure looking like a trend.
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First off, you have him playing in a loss that he didn't play in (which was our worst game of the past 8, getting our doors blown off at Nebraska).
And secondly, wouldn't you need to look at quality of opponent if you're doing that analysis?
If you want to be positive about our team improving, by all means.
However, this team has ONE path to the tournament and it has ZERO to do with the next 3 games.
Well...it has a little bit to do with them, as getting one more win to make sure we avoid Wednesday is important (though if things fall right, we could go 0-3 and still do it). But I generally agree with your point.
Yeah We beat the #12 team in ghe country without him,
Watching games we are obviously better without him. Move the ball around much better. Team hustles more. Everyone involved,
I stated as much on the second game without him. Wasn’t well received but I stand by that post.
Without a doubt. You buying the ticket and holding the door open?
Yep, an 8 or 9 seed guarantees a loss to Purdue in the quarters if we win our first round game. Edey could get 40 against us, total field day in the post.
We can beat Purdue, but we'd need a lot of things to go right (and a lot of things to go wrong for them)...I'd much rather take my chances with the other side of the bracket, likely featuring teams like Illinois and Wisconsin that we've already beaten.
Thanks for the catch. Corrected. I guess the team was still getting used to him being gone.
My analysis is based on my eyes and they clearly show me the team is better without him. Everyone moving with what appears to be real effort and distributing the ball nicely. I also noticed they tend to hold their heads up when the other goes on the run which was missing earlier in the season.
Why can't you see this?
Anything is possible and it would be a neutral court but highly unlikely. Edey would have to have a terrible game such as getting into foul trouble. All their role players would have to shoot lousy meanwhile we would have to totally light it up from 3 with Wahab playing the game of his life. So you're telling me I have a shot!
A lot of my analysis with basketball will be based on numbers more than eyes...mostly due to the fact that humans get preconceived notions, confirmation bias, etc. Nothing that I've seen with my eyes tells me that our team is better without Kanye. We had big wins with him, and we had big wins without him. We've had awful performances with him, and had played poorly without him.
Torvik allows you to isolate certain periods of time to see how a team is currently playing. If I isolate on games after Kanye left the team, we're ranked 87th in the country. If I look at the entire season, we're ranked 86th.
And looking at offensive efficiency (since you referenced our offense improving)...in 5 games without Kanye, our raw efficiency has been 1.073 points/possession. On a whole this season, our adjusted efficiency is 1.123. We've certainly played tougher competition in those 5 games than the season as a whole, so there would be some level of adjustment to bump the raw number, but the numbers would certainly tell you that the offense doesn't improve without him.
So no, I don't see the offense improving without Clary.
1. You forgot to mention that the team played poorly ONE time without him while they played very well EVERY other time without him.
2. You changed the hypothesis from "the team is playing better" to "I don't see the OFFENSE improving". Spin and I (and others) think (clearly see) the team is playing better.
The team plays better without him, imo.
I’m a math guy so I look at numbers but I’ve also been a basketball coach for 25 years so I trust what my eyes tell me. I’m not going to go as far as saying the team is better without him yet, we need more information but it’s hard to deny that the chemistry is better and the growth and production from three specific players (Ace, Nick and Zach) has grown since he has been out.
Some of this is just the general maturation and improvement in learning what Coach wants them to do, but you can see the confidence level of those guys and their mentality of how now it’s their team really start to show.
Q has been much improved after a midseason, slump and Puff, Dunn and Brown have been slightly better as well.
There must’ve been some things going on in the locker room that we don’t know about and chemistry can make a huge difference
Some of this is just the general maturation and improvement in learning what Coach wants them to do, but you can see the confidence level of those guys and their mentality of how now it’s their team really start to show.
Q has been much improved after a midseason, slump and Puff, Dunn and Brown have been slightly better as well.
There must’ve been some things going on in the locker room that we don’t know about and chemistry can make a huge difference
I agree with this. When I miss a game I always think we were blown out. Football people just bitch that we aren't perfect
Yep, and they are improving as they play more games. And that is most important.
Hopefully they will continue to improve. They were pretty stagnant and inconsistent before.
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Was it Clary’a fault no one on the team could hit water if they were shooting from a boat for most of the season? He had to score because no one else could. He played a great first half in the game he got hurt and they were winning pretty handily.
It seems so, doesn't it? It's very rare for a team to lose their best offensive player and dramatically improve both by the eye test and the win-loss column.
As long as we’re focusing on record without context…
We are 4-0 when Andy Cristos plays, but 10-14 without him. Get him on the floor Mike!
Lately, it doesn't appear we're missing his total of 5.4 minutes played this season, but it does appear we don't miss Clary's 35+ minutes/game. 🤣🤣🤣
