ADVERTISEMENT

Chance of Mens Basketball team finising strong?

Ranger Dan

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Aug 31, 2003
19,928
10,651
1
York PA
We are sitting at 5-5 in the conference after back to back wins against tOSU (in Columbus) and Rutgers in State College. We will be favored in at least three remaining games: home vs Iowa on 02/03, at Illinois on 02/11, and at Nebraska on 02/25. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that we wil all three of these games. The remaining five games include some winnable situations, I think, but they are all against teams with better resumes.

We play at MSU this Wednesday. They are one of the most talented teams in the league, but are experiencing some severe distractions now. Maybe this helps or maybe it creates an us (MSU) against the world mentality and the Spartans finish the year strong. I'm going to say that MSU pulls this game out.

Maryland comes to Happy Valley on 02/07. This was a game we could have won in College park, so I say that we should have a better shot to beat them in our house. Penn State wins here.

We host tOSU on 02/15 after beating the Buckeye's in Columbus this past Thursday. It won't be easy, but I think our playing at home and the confidence of beating them before will help the team. Penn State with a win for what I'm predicting as a 4 game winning streak.

The winning streak comes to an end as we visit West Lafayette to play Purdue on 02/18. Purdue is a final four team and I don't think we beat them at their house.

We host a talented Michigan team on 02/21. We will be coming off a loss to Purdue, but I think we beat Michigan to initiate a two game win streak to end the regular conference season.

Starting from our current 5-5 record, and adding the 6-2 record for the remaining games, we end up as 11 and 7 in the conference and 21-10 overall. I've read that only 4 Big Ten teams are projected to make the big dance this year, but I think this would assure us a spot in the NIT. Winning a couple of Big Ten Tournament games may get us in the bubble conversation for the NCAAs.

What are your thoughts for the remaining conference schedule?
 
  • Like
Reactions: anacreon3
We are sitting at 5-5 in the conference after back to back wins against tOSU (in Columbus) and Rutgers in State College. We will be favored in at least three remaining games: home vs Iowa on 02/03, at Illinois on 02/11, and at Nebraska on 02/25. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that we wil all three of these games. The remaining five games include some winnable situations, I think, but they are all against teams with better resumes.

We play at MSU this Wednesday. They are one of the most talented teams in the league, but are experiencing some severe distractions now. Maybe this helps or maybe it creates an us (MSU) against the world mentality and the Spartans finish the year strong. I'm going to say that MSU pulls this game out.

Maryland comes to Happy Valley on 02/07. This was a game we could have won in College park, so I say that we should have a better shot to beat them in our house. Penn State wins here.

We host tOSU on 02/15 after beating the Buckeye's in Columbus this past Thursday. It won't be easy, but I think our playing at home and the confidence of beating them before will help the team. Penn State with a win for what I'm predicting as a 4 game winning streak.

The winning streak comes to an end as we visit West Lafayette to play Purdue on 02/18. Purdue is a final four team and I don't think we beat them at their house.

We host a talented Michigan team on 02/21. We will be coming off a loss to Purdue, but I think we beat Michigan to initiate a two game win streak to end the regular conference season.

Starting from our current 5-5 record, and adding the 6-2 record for the remaining games, we end up as 11 and 7 in the conference and 21-10 overall. I've read that only 4 Big Ten teams are projected to make the big dance this year, but I think this would assure us a spot in the NIT. Winning a couple of Big Ten Tournament games may get us in the bubble conversation for the NCAAs.

What are your thoughts for the remaining conference schedule?
I think a 5-3 finish in remaining 8 games is very possible. With this said, they will not be favored @ Nebraska, but likely will be @ home vs the Terps.
 
I think PSU will finish at least 9-9 in the conference. I think they need to be 11-7 to even be in the discussion for the NCAA, and 12-6 to be a "lock." The latter (12-6) is extremely unlikely. I think they will end up 10-8. This will mean NIT unless they can pull off a great run in the BTT.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bison13
So many missed opportunities -- In conference -- Wisconsin, Maryland, Northwestern, Minnesota, and out of conference -- NC State and Rider. These were all very winnable games.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bison13
So many missed opportunities -- In conference -- Wisconsin, Maryland, Northwestern, Minnesota, and out of conference -- NC State and Rider. These were all very winnable games.
Who use this thread to complain about these missed opportunities. There have been many of these threads. Why not discuss how many games Penn State will win for their remaining games?
 
I think PSU will finish at least 9-9 in the conference. I think they need to be 11-7 to even be in the discussion for the NCAA, and 12-6 to be a "lock." The latter (12-6) is extremely unlikely. I think they will end up 10-8. This will mean NIT unless they can pull off a great run in the BTT.
You really think we will lose 4 more games? Who are we going to lose to besides MSU and Purdue?
 
You really think we will lose 4 more games? Who are we going to lose to besides MSU and Purdue?

It took a career night from shooting from 3 to beat a ranked OSU team at the buzzer

Michigan also is playing a lot better than people thought this year. Personally I think they're overrated but they're still good.

Nebraska is on a bit of a roll right now as well and the game will be in Lincoln.

It's very possible/likely we lose 2 of those 3.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bison13
Most likely outcome is 4-4, for a conference finish of 9-9. Given the schedule and results to date, they have dug themselves a deep hole for making the NCAA or NIT. Their current RPI is #111, and Live RPI projects them to go 8-10 in conference. They really need to win 2 out of 3 against MSU, Purdue, and OSU to have a shot at the postseason. Very unlikely to happen.
 
Most likely outcome is 3-5, but there are a lot of possibilities on the table. I'd love to dream about 7-1 or 6-2 to get back in the NCAA mix, but we just aren't consistent enough to both pull off an upset or two and win the games we should win. 5-3 would probably give us the 5 seed, which makes for a manageable path to Saturday at MSG. Even 4-4 and there is a good change we are the 6 seed and might avoid MSU/Purdue until the weekend.

My prediction would probably be 3-5, and something like the 8th seed.
 
I agree that 3-5 or 4-4 are much more likely than 5-3 or 6-2.

That said, hopefully tOSU & Rutgers momentum carries forward. If they can upset MSU Wed eve, then this discussion will get very interesting.
 
Another interesting question to me is where the team finished in the big ten standings, and how that affects what the team will face in the conference tourament. IIRC, finishing in the top four means they play three games max, finishing five through ten means four games in four days for the win, and finishing in the bottom four means a prohibitive five wins in five days to get the crown. I can't imagine a scenario where PSU doesn't need a good tournament run to reach their goals.
 
I think we end on a four game losing streak. Penn State had to shoot lights out just to beat OSU on a buzzer beater. I doubt we shoot that well the rest of the season. We will lose to OSU at home and to Purdue on the road. Michigan is good enough to beat us at our arena. Finally, Nebraska leads the league in attendance and plays great at home. I think we end the regular season with a loss. We should also lose to MSU and end the season 3-5.
 
The more we feed the ball to Watkins in the post, the more we win IMO. If Chambers stops allowing the team to get lost for 8-10 minutes at a time, seemingly in the 2nd half, we will win more than half our remaining games. When you do not score for the final 10 minutes of a game how can you expect to beat anyone? The talent is there, whether they do enough with their talent to win these games forthcoming remains to be seen.

I hope they knock off OSU and MSU, can't stand either of them.
 
I really can't understand how anyone has watched this team play and predict a 3-5 or even a 4-4 finish. I think those people have an idea of what this team should end up with as far as total conference wins and then doing the math. We were able to shoot well against tOSU at Columbus and only let a significant lead slip late in the game. Ohio State is a very good team, but we are good enough to beat them again on our court. We should have beaten MD at MD, but have a chance to rectify that. We will beat Illinois, Nebraska, and Iowa. Michigan is also a good team, in the caliber of MD and tOSU. Playing them at home gives us the edge.
 
I really can't understand how anyone has watched this team play and predict a 3-5 or even a 4-4 finish. I think those people have an idea of what this team should end up with as far as total conference wins and then doing the math. We were able to shoot well against tOSU at Columbus and only let a significant lead slip late in the game. Ohio State is a very good team, but we are good enough to beat them again on our court. We should have beaten MD at MD, but have a chance to rectify that. We will beat Illinois, Nebraska, and Iowa. Michigan is also a good team, in the caliber of MD and tOSU. Playing them at home gives us the edge.

Well, there is the crux of the matter. Sure, this team SHOULD be 4-4 or better. Most of us agree on that. Their record right now SHOULD also be 2 or 3 games better than it is.

Let's circle back at the end of the season and see where they actually end up, and then figure out why the record wasn't as good as it should have been.
 
I really can't understand how anyone has watched this team play and predict a 3-5 or even a 4-4 finish. I think those people have an idea of what this team should end up with as far as total conference wins and then doing the math. We were able to shoot well against tOSU at Columbus and only let a significant lead slip late in the game. Ohio State is a very good team, but we are good enough to beat them again on our court. We should have beaten MD at MD, but have a chance to rectify that. We will beat Illinois, Nebraska, and Iowa. Michigan is also a good team, in the caliber of MD and tOSU. Playing them at home gives us the edge.
Pomeroy expectation is 3.39 more wins. Sagarin is 3.42 wins. My ratings have us right about where both of them currently have us, so that 3-5 or 4-4 range sounds right to me. I have watched us play all season, and for us to finish 5-3 or better, we'd need to play at a higher level than we have for the first 2.5 months of the season. Honestly, the path to 2-6 is more likely than the path to 5-3.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ILLINOISLION
The only thing consistent about this team is their inconsistency. How can you lose to Rider at home and then beat OSU on the road? That said, I have become optimistic about this team. Chambers is a good man and is due for some good karma. I say we win 7 of the last 8, 2 in the conference tournament, and make the NCAA's. Lest anyone think I am off my prune juice, may I point out that I picked the OSU upset 1/2 hour before the game started. I feel the good mojo and I say we are ready to hit the Big Dance. So let it be written. So let it be done.:)
 
Last edited:
We went 5-5 vs the easy part of the schedule. Going 4-4 would be an accomplishment. 2 losses are almost guaranteed at MSU and at Purdue. Awfully tough to sweep Ohio State so I think we lose to them in the rematch. We aren't shooting 10-13 from the 3 point line very often.. Michigan and Maryland will be tough but we'll have a chance to win. Iowa should be a win but Rider, Wisconsin and Minnesota were in that same category and all were losses. At Nebraska will be awfully tough. They've taken advantage of the weak BIG by starting 7-4. Winning at Illinois won't be easy either. They only have one conference win but 3 losses were in OT. I think we split vs Iowa, Md, Illinois, Michigan and lose at Purdue, at Michigan State, at Nebraska and home vs OSU.

I was an optimist coming into the season thinking they could be in the mix for the tournament and I have enjoyed the last two wins but watching them throughout the season just doesn't make me feel very confident in them being able to maintain any type of consistency. We'll see flashes of this team's potential and then we'll be brought back to reality with 5 minutes of bad basketball that changes the W into an L.
 
Starting from our current 5-5 record, and adding the 6-2 record for the remaining games, we end up as 11 and 7 in the conference and 21-10 overall.

What are your thoughts for the remaining conference schedule?

139rxc.jpg


@MSU - loss (potentially ugly)
Iowa - should win
MD - loss after all 5 starters foul out, MD called for one foul
@Illinois - should win
OSU - nuts get their revenge
@Purdue - loss (potentially ugly)
Michigan - referines do their magic
@Neb - beat them by 2 at home, unless they shoot 79% from three another loss

Much, much more likely to go 2-6 then 6-2 in the remaining eight games. I am hopeful they can go 4-4 and make some noise in the BTT, but 6-2 would be a miracle.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 84Lion and bdgan
We are sitting at 5-5 in the conference after back to back wins against tOSU (in Columbus) and Rutgers in State College. We will be favored in at least three remaining games: home vs Iowa on 02/03, at Illinois on 02/11, and at Nebraska on 02/25. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that we wil all three of these games. The remaining five games include some winnable situations, I think, but they are all against teams with better resumes.

We play at MSU this Wednesday. They are one of the most talented teams in the league, but are experiencing some severe distractions now. Maybe this helps or maybe it creates an us (MSU) against the world mentality and the Spartans finish the year strong. I'm going to say that MSU pulls this game out.

Maryland comes to Happy Valley on 02/07. This was a game we could have won in College park, so I say that we should have a better shot to beat them in our house. Penn State wins here.

We host tOSU on 02/15 after beating the Buckeye's in Columbus this past Thursday. It won't be easy, but I think our playing at home and the confidence of beating them before will help the team. Penn State with a win for what I'm predicting as a 4 game winning streak.

The winning streak comes to an end as we visit West Lafayette to play Purdue on 02/18. Purdue is a final four team and I don't think we beat them at their house.

We host a talented Michigan team on 02/21. We will be coming off a loss to Purdue, but I think we beat Michigan to initiate a two game win streak to end the regular conference season.

Starting from our current 5-5 record, and adding the 6-2 record for the remaining games, we end up as 11 and 7 in the conference and 21-10 overall. I've read that only 4 Big Ten teams are projected to make the big dance this year, but I think this would assure us a spot in the NIT. Winning a couple of Big Ten Tournament games may get us in the bubble conversation for the NCAAs.

What are your thoughts for the remaining conference schedule?
21-10 would do it but this team won't win 21 games. 18-13 is more likely.
 
You really think we will lose 4 more games? Who are we going to lose to besides MSU and Purdue?

MSU and Purdue as you say. Put the other teams in a hat and pick the other two losses. I strongly suspect OSU will be one of them. This team will have to prove to me that they won’t find a way to lose games that they shouldn’t lose. I hope they do, but until then I’m from Missouri.
 
21-10 and we'd still have work to do at MSG (likely have to make the final).

Semifinal which would make us either 22-11 or 23-11 depending on where we fall ... a semifinal run means we'd more than likely have 3-4 ranked wins in the last 1/3 of the season. With how average most of college basketball is this year that would probably have us in the 10-12 seed range (probably a first four play-in game)
 
Semifinal which would make us either 22-11 or 23-11 depending on where we fall ... a semifinal run means we'd more than likely have 3-4 ranked wins in the last 1/3 of the season. With how average most of college basketball is this year that would probably have us in the 10-12 seed range (probably a first four play-in game)

11-7 and we'd be either the 4 or 5 seed (most likely the 4). Even if the 5, then it would be a Rutgers/Iowa/Illinois that we'd play on Thursday, which wouldn't move the needle at all.

Using the RPIForecast wizard, plugging in losses to Purdue/MSU and winning the other 6, then beating Michigan in the quarters and losing to Purdue in the semi, it gives us an RPI of 51 (22-11, 11-7, 1-1 at MSG).

But the best non-conference win is over a Montana team with an RPI ~100 at home, and shockingly, that would be our only non-conference win over a team with an RPI in the top half (RPIForecast has the next best non-conf win as Pitt at ~195, also at home). And with those scenarios, it's quite possible that we wouldn't have a single top-50 win over a team that isn't named Ohio State (using both the old style and their new "adjusted" numbers for top 50 wins). That would be a pretty long week sitting around waiting for Selection Sunday, and I'd expect it to end in the NIT.

I guess things change a bit if we lost to one of the other teams on the schedule and won at MSU or Purdue, but still don't see how that would be enough.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ILLINOISLION
You really think we will lose 4 more games? Who are we going to lose to besides MSU and Purdue?
It will be very difficult to beat Nebraska away and to beat OSU for the second time at home. Michigan at home is very losable. It’s not impossible to win those games but they won’t be favored in any of them. MSU and Purdue are sure losses. Illinois away won’t be easy either. I think Iowa, Maryland are wins. 5-3 best case scenario in my mind, 3-5 isn’t out of the question.
 
We are sitting at 5-5 in the conference after back to back wins against tOSU (in Columbus) and Rutgers in State College. We will be favored in at least three remaining games: home vs Iowa on 02/03, at Illinois on 02/11, and at Nebraska on 02/25. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that we wil all three of these games. The remaining five games include some winnable situations, I think, but they are all against teams with better resumes.

We play at MSU this Wednesday. They are one of the most talented teams in the league, but are experiencing some severe distractions now. Maybe this helps or maybe it creates an us (MSU) against the world mentality and the Spartans finish the year strong. I'm going to say that MSU pulls this game out.

Maryland comes to Happy Valley on 02/07. This was a game we could have won in College park, so I say that we should have a better shot to beat them in our house. Penn State wins here.

We host tOSU on 02/15 after beating the Buckeye's in Columbus this past Thursday. It won't be easy, but I think our playing at home and the confidence of beating them before will help the team. Penn State with a win for what I'm predicting as a 4 game winning streak.

The winning streak comes to an end as we visit West Lafayette to play Purdue on 02/18. Purdue is a final four team and I don't think we beat them at their house.

We host a talented Michigan team on 02/21. We will be coming off a loss to Purdue, but I think we beat Michigan to initiate a two game win streak to end the regular conference season.

Starting from our current 5-5 record, and adding the 6-2 record for the remaining games, we end up as 11 and 7 in the conference and 21-10 overall. I've read that only 4 Big Ten teams are projected to make the big dance this year, but I think this would assure us a spot in the NIT. Winning a couple of Big Ten Tournament games may get us in the bubble conversation for the NCAAs.

What are your thoughts for the remaining conference schedule?

Although neither is very likely, odds of 2-6 are better than 6-2. 4-4 is most likely. In my opinion of course.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bdgan
Although neither is very likely, odds of 2-6 are better than 6-2. 4-4 is most likely. In my opinion of course.
saying a number without providing any analysis or supporting argument just tells me that you arbitrarily believe that the team is no better than .500.
 
11-7 and we'd be either the 4 or 5 seed (most likely the 4). Even if the 5, then it would be a Rutgers/Iowa/Illinois that we'd play on Thursday, which wouldn't move the needle at all.

Using the RPIForecast wizard, plugging in losses to Purdue/MSU and winning the other 6, then beating Michigan in the quarters and losing to Purdue in the semi, it gives us an RPI of 51 (22-11, 11-7, 1-1 at MSG).

But the best non-conference win is over a Montana team with an RPI ~100 at home, and shockingly, that would be our only non-conference win over a team with an RPI in the top half (RPIForecast has the next best non-conf win as Pitt at ~195, also at home). And with those scenarios, it's quite possible that we wouldn't have a single top-50 win over a team that isn't named Ohio State (using both the old style and their new "adjusted" numbers for top 50 wins). That would be a pretty long week sitting around waiting for Selection Sunday, and I'd expect it to end in the NIT.

I guess things change a bit if we lost to one of the other teams on the schedule and won at MSU or Purdue, but still don't see how that would be enough.
You place way too much credence in the RPI number as opposed to the other more advanced metrics. We are already at 51 in KenPom without the strong finish that I am predicting. That being said, I think the NIT is the safer bet than the NCAA, and even the NIT is not a given based upon our current resume. We need to do the work and win these winnable games down the stretch in order to see some post season play and have (hopefully) a springboard for next season.
 
You place way too much credence in the RPI number as opposed to the other more advanced metrics. We are already at 51 in KenPom without the strong finish that I am predicting. That being said, I think the NIT is the safer bet than the NCAA, and even the NIT is not a given based upon our current resume. We need to do the work and win these winnable games down the stretch in order to see some post season play and have (hopefully) a springboard for next season.
I only place too much emphasis in the RPI because the committee (historically) places too much emphasis in the RPI. It's a terrible tool to use, and is much worse than any of the predictive measures, but the fact remains that it is what the committee is using to separate teams/determine quality wins when they're looking at team sheets or up on the screen.
 
saying a number without providing any analysis or supporting argument just tells me that you arbitrarily believe that the team is no better than .500.

Against the balance of the schedule, yes that is what I believe. The last 8 games are tougher than the first 10, but we didn’t have Reaves for 4 of those. I believe we would have finished above 0.500 in the B1G for sure if he would have been eligible for all games.

With all due respect, as I really do applaud your commitment to PSU basketball, yours wasn’t “analysis” either. It was conjecture with more words wrapped around it. Some would call it wishful thinking. FWIW I really do hope you are right. 6-2 would be a real sign of amazing progress for this program. I guess that’s why they play the games...
 
Against the balance of the schedule, yes that is what I believe. The last 8 games are tougher than the first 10, but we didn’t have Reaves for 4 of those. I believe we would have finished above 0.500 in the B1G for sure if he would have been eligible for all games.

With all due respect, as I really do applaud your commitment to PSU basketball, yours wasn’t “analysis” either. It was conjecture with more words wrapped around it. Some would call it wishful thinking. FWIW I really do hope you are right. 6-2 would be a real sign of amazing progress for this program. I guess that’s why they play the games...
I didn't just say 6-2... I said these are the games we will win and lose and why. For you and others that predict 4-4 or worse, I am asking you to indicate who you think we will lose to besides MSU and Purdue?
 
I didn't just say 6-2... I said these are the games we will win and lose and why. For you and others that predict 4-4 or worse, I am asking you to indicate who you think we will lose to besides MSU and Purdue?

I don’t know and would get no more psychic satisfaction out of picking the 4 wins and 4 losses correctly than I would pulling a slot machine lever and hitting. I could easily see us losing to Purdue, MSU, Mich and OSU, but I could also see beating one of those and losing to someone else. I would be very happy with 5-3, but expect 4-4 and wouldn’t be surprised by 3-5. I sincerely hope they win them all.
 
saying a number without providing any analysis or supporting argument just tells me that you arbitrarily believe that the team is no better than .500.

The Live RPI metrics give Penn State a 4.5% chance of going 6-2 or better and about a 23% chance of going 2-6 or worse.
 
@MSU- loss
Iowa- win
MD- win
@Ill- win
OSU- loss (won’t shoot like we did first time)
@Purdue- loss
Mich- loss (they’re playing well)
@Neb- loss (Home court advantage)

3-5 remainder of the season and no post season play.
 
The Live RPI metrics give Penn State a 4.5% chance of going 6-2 or better and about a 23% chance of going 2-6 or worse.
So, you are saying that there is a chance... welcome on board the bandwagon! There is plenty or room, grad a cold one and make yourself comfortable.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Mixolydian
I think we are what we are....a .500 team. We can’t finish and lose the last 7 minutes of every game. I expect 4-4 finish. Hoping for best but expect the worst. Shoulda coulda woulda in game after game : /
 
I think we are what we are....a .500 team. We can’t finish and lose the last 7 minutes of every game. I expect 4-4 finish. Hoping for best but expect the worst. Shoulda coulda woulda in game after game : /
I can't accept any prediction of final win/loss record without indicating who we beat and who we lose to... Care to provide some color?
 
We are sitting at 5-5 in the conference after back to back wins against tOSU (in Columbus) and Rutgers in State College. We will be favored in at least three remaining games: home vs Iowa on 02/03, at Illinois on 02/11, and at Nebraska on 02/25. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that we wil all three of these games. The remaining five games include some winnable situations, I think, but they are all against teams with better resumes.

We play at MSU this Wednesday. They are one of the most talented teams in the league, but are experiencing some severe distractions now. Maybe this helps or maybe it creates an us (MSU) against the world mentality and the Spartans finish the year strong. I'm going to say that MSU pulls this game out.

Maryland comes to Happy Valley on 02/07. This was a game we could have won in College park, so I say that we should have a better shot to beat them in our house. Penn State wins here.

We host tOSU on 02/15 after beating the Buckeye's in Columbus this past Thursday. It won't be easy, but I think our playing at home and the confidence of beating them before will help the team. Penn State with a win for what I'm predicting as a 4 game winning streak.

The winning streak comes to an end as we visit West Lafayette to play Purdue on 02/18. Purdue is a final four team and I don't think we beat them at their house.

We host a talented Michigan team on 02/21. We will be coming off a loss to Purdue, but I think we beat Michigan to initiate a two game win streak to end the regular conference season.

Starting from our current 5-5 record, and adding the 6-2 record for the remaining games, we end up as 11 and 7 in the conference and 21-10 overall. I've read that only 4 Big Ten teams are projected to make the big dance this year, but I think this would assure us a spot in the NIT. Winning a couple of Big Ten Tournament games may get us in the bubble conversation for the NCAAs.

What are your thoughts for the remaining conference schedule?


 
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT