CONFERENCE TRENDS
Which conferences are improving? Which are in decline? From 2010 to 2016, D1 Wrestling has lost 7 programs (Cal-Davis, Duquesne, Cal-Fullerton, UNC-Greensboro, Liberty, Millersville, Boston U), while picking up 1 (SIU-Edwardsville), going from 82 schools to 76. (Note: Fresno St will be returning in several years too).
11 Conferences are now down to 8, with the East Regional, Colonial Athletic Association, and the West Regional (which became the WWC for a couple years) no longer in existence. This paragraph and the previous just show the incredible amount of change in only 7 years. Still, I made an honest attempt at looking at each conference and their TREND.
Lots of this is about individual schools. The vast improvement at NC State and Virginia Tech has helped the ACC, Boise St’s decline has hurt the Pac 10 (now Pac 12), and adding Missouri helped the MAC, as examples. Every school fluctuates, but those were dramatic.
For comparison sake, I used percentages, and not whole numbers. The % of a conference’s wrestlers that went to NCAA’s, or the % of a conference’s wrestlers that earned AA, are examples. With the changing landscape, it’s a better basis for comparison.
Big Ten – 14 Schools
Adds: Nebraska in 2012, Maryland and Rutgers in 2015
Departs: None
Trend: Slightly down (though one year does not a trend make).
56% of the conference wrestlers made it to NCAA’s, way down from 2015’s 69%. Can’t excuse it away as just a result of adding Maryland and Rutgers, since 2015 (their 1st year) was our highest percentage in the past 7 years, and 2016 was our lowest. Purdue (-5), Illinois (-4), Michigan (-3), Minnesota (-3), and Northwestern (-3), all had at least 3 fewer representatives, while Rutgers (+5) was the only school with at least 3 more attending NCAA’s from 2015 to 2016.
22% of conference wrestlers earned AA honors in 2016, with a high of 28% in 2012 and 2014 for the conference. The 2016 number was the lowest in the last 7 years, validating that the Big 10 was not as competitive this one year.
Big 12 – 10 Schools
Adds: WVU in 2013. Air Force, ND State, Northern Colorado, SD State, Utah Valley, Wyoming in 2016
Departs: Nebraska in 2012, Missouri in 2013
Trend: Significantly down (2013), then up, but not to pre-2012 years, currently wait-and-see
With only 4 teams for the majority of this time period, and absorbing the weaker WWC in 2016, there’s 2 dynamics here, one is that a talent drop by even one team affects the conference dramatically (pre-2016), and next, absorbing a weaker conference has significantly dropped the Big 12 numbers. Still, in 2012, with over 80% of the conference wrestlers earning a spot at NCAA’s (think about that for a second), only 13% of conference wrestlers earned AA. 2013 followed, and only 57% of conference wrestlers made it to the NCAA’s, so the trend was down.
Losing Nebraska and Missouri affected the overall talent level in the conference, though at 13% AA’s, even Oklahoma State and Oklahoma had lower-than-normal performance in 2012.
2016 was an expansion year, going from 4 to 10 teams and absorbing the WWC, so we’ll see how the trend is in the coming years.
EIWA – 16 Schools
Adds: Sacred Heart in 2012, Binghamton, Boston U, Drexel and Hofstra in 2014
Departs: Rutgers and Boston U (shut down program) in 2015
Trend: Stable through 7 years for NCAA qualifiers, though slightly down 2014, 2015, slightly up in 2016. Significantly down for AA’s.
Largest conference at 16 teams (was 18 in 2014), its stability is because of it numbers. When a couple teams have down years, others were up. This conference sends about 35% of its wrestlers to NCAA’s. In 2010-2012, about 10% of conference wrestlers earned AA, but in 2013-2016 the average is slightly above 5%, showing a downward trend.
Pac 10 (Now the Pac 12) – 6 Schools
Adds: None
Departs: Cal-Davis (shut down program) in 2011, Cal-Fullerton (shut down program) in 2012
Trend: Dramatically down overall, slight uptick in 2015, 2016.
This conference went from averaging sending 45+ percent of its wrestlers to NCAA’s, down to 30% (2014), and returning to around 40% in 2015 and 2016, due to slight resurgence at Arizona St, Oregon St, and Stanford.
About 12% of all Pac10 wrestlers earned AA in 2010 through 2012, and only 5% average from 2013 through 2016. Boise State’s drop off is a significant factor.
MAC – 9 Schools
Adds: Missouri and Northern Iowa in 2013, Old Dominion in 2014
Departs: None
Trend: Stable.
The MAC sent over half its wrestlers to the NCAA’s in 2016. Saw the Missouri-bounce in 2013, going from 42% the year before, to 50%, but not calling that anything more than a realignment result.
At about 10% of its conference wrestlers earning AA, the MAC is the 4th strongest conference, using this metric. This number was trending down, and reached a low of 5% in 2012, but again, Missouri to the rescue in 2013, and the conference has been steady since.
ACC – 6 Schools
Adds: Pittsburgh in 2014
Departs: Maryland in 2015
Trend: Way up!
With 63%+ of all conference wrestlers going to NCAA’s in 2016, the ACC was the class of this year for that metric. Slightly more than 18% of all conference wrestlers earned AA, much higher than all conferences except the Big 10 (at 22%).
The numbers for these 7 years show a rise from 42% (2010) to 63% (2016) for NCAA Qualification, and 8% (2010) to 18% (2016) for AA. The improvement of NC State, and Virginia Tech over these 7 years is significant.
EWL – 7 Schools
Adds: Millersville in 2012, George Mason and Rider in 2014
Departs: West Virginia and Millersville (shut down program) in 2013
Trend: Roller coaster, way down in 2016.
On average, the EWL sends 33% of its wrestlers to NCAA’s and about 15% of all their wrestlers earn AA. Thing is, the conference NCAA % trended up during the 2011, 2012, and 2013 years, while trending down in 2014, 2015, and 2016. And their AA% was down (1.4%) in 2011, way up (18% and 20%) in 2012 and 2013, up again (32%) in 2015, before a precipitous fall (5%) in 2016. Edinboro, with 4 AA’s in 2015, and none in 2016 was part of the reason.
SC (Southern Conference) – 8 Schools
Adds: Campbell and Gardner-Webb in 2012, SIU-Edwardsville in 2013
Departs: UNC-Greensboro (shut down program in 2012)
Trend: Down.
Really consistent, with 18 to 23% of all conference wrestlers earning a spot at NCAA’s. However, the conference has not had an AA in the past 2 years, though that’s only down from 1 or 2 AA’s the 3 years prior (easier to talk numbers here than percentages). The SC is, by far, the worst-performing conference at NCAA’s.
So there you have it…but there’s one additional calculation I made. Above is all about the % of conference rosters qualify for NCAA’s or earn AA. But what about the % of conference qualifiers that become AA. It’s below, and other than that…hope you enjoyed!!
2016 Only (80 out of 330 wrestlers, or 24% on average, earn AA)
Big 10 – 39% of wrestlers that earned their way to NCAA’s, ended as All-Americans, way above 24%
Big 12 – 32 %
ACC – 29%
MAC – 21%
EIWA – 16%
Pac 12 – 16%
EWL – 5%
SC – 0%
Which conferences are improving? Which are in decline? From 2010 to 2016, D1 Wrestling has lost 7 programs (Cal-Davis, Duquesne, Cal-Fullerton, UNC-Greensboro, Liberty, Millersville, Boston U), while picking up 1 (SIU-Edwardsville), going from 82 schools to 76. (Note: Fresno St will be returning in several years too).
11 Conferences are now down to 8, with the East Regional, Colonial Athletic Association, and the West Regional (which became the WWC for a couple years) no longer in existence. This paragraph and the previous just show the incredible amount of change in only 7 years. Still, I made an honest attempt at looking at each conference and their TREND.
Lots of this is about individual schools. The vast improvement at NC State and Virginia Tech has helped the ACC, Boise St’s decline has hurt the Pac 10 (now Pac 12), and adding Missouri helped the MAC, as examples. Every school fluctuates, but those were dramatic.
For comparison sake, I used percentages, and not whole numbers. The % of a conference’s wrestlers that went to NCAA’s, or the % of a conference’s wrestlers that earned AA, are examples. With the changing landscape, it’s a better basis for comparison.
Big Ten – 14 Schools
Adds: Nebraska in 2012, Maryland and Rutgers in 2015
Departs: None
Trend: Slightly down (though one year does not a trend make).
56% of the conference wrestlers made it to NCAA’s, way down from 2015’s 69%. Can’t excuse it away as just a result of adding Maryland and Rutgers, since 2015 (their 1st year) was our highest percentage in the past 7 years, and 2016 was our lowest. Purdue (-5), Illinois (-4), Michigan (-3), Minnesota (-3), and Northwestern (-3), all had at least 3 fewer representatives, while Rutgers (+5) was the only school with at least 3 more attending NCAA’s from 2015 to 2016.
22% of conference wrestlers earned AA honors in 2016, with a high of 28% in 2012 and 2014 for the conference. The 2016 number was the lowest in the last 7 years, validating that the Big 10 was not as competitive this one year.
Big 12 – 10 Schools
Adds: WVU in 2013. Air Force, ND State, Northern Colorado, SD State, Utah Valley, Wyoming in 2016
Departs: Nebraska in 2012, Missouri in 2013
Trend: Significantly down (2013), then up, but not to pre-2012 years, currently wait-and-see
With only 4 teams for the majority of this time period, and absorbing the weaker WWC in 2016, there’s 2 dynamics here, one is that a talent drop by even one team affects the conference dramatically (pre-2016), and next, absorbing a weaker conference has significantly dropped the Big 12 numbers. Still, in 2012, with over 80% of the conference wrestlers earning a spot at NCAA’s (think about that for a second), only 13% of conference wrestlers earned AA. 2013 followed, and only 57% of conference wrestlers made it to the NCAA’s, so the trend was down.
Losing Nebraska and Missouri affected the overall talent level in the conference, though at 13% AA’s, even Oklahoma State and Oklahoma had lower-than-normal performance in 2012.
2016 was an expansion year, going from 4 to 10 teams and absorbing the WWC, so we’ll see how the trend is in the coming years.
EIWA – 16 Schools
Adds: Sacred Heart in 2012, Binghamton, Boston U, Drexel and Hofstra in 2014
Departs: Rutgers and Boston U (shut down program) in 2015
Trend: Stable through 7 years for NCAA qualifiers, though slightly down 2014, 2015, slightly up in 2016. Significantly down for AA’s.
Largest conference at 16 teams (was 18 in 2014), its stability is because of it numbers. When a couple teams have down years, others were up. This conference sends about 35% of its wrestlers to NCAA’s. In 2010-2012, about 10% of conference wrestlers earned AA, but in 2013-2016 the average is slightly above 5%, showing a downward trend.
Pac 10 (Now the Pac 12) – 6 Schools
Adds: None
Departs: Cal-Davis (shut down program) in 2011, Cal-Fullerton (shut down program) in 2012
Trend: Dramatically down overall, slight uptick in 2015, 2016.
This conference went from averaging sending 45+ percent of its wrestlers to NCAA’s, down to 30% (2014), and returning to around 40% in 2015 and 2016, due to slight resurgence at Arizona St, Oregon St, and Stanford.
About 12% of all Pac10 wrestlers earned AA in 2010 through 2012, and only 5% average from 2013 through 2016. Boise State’s drop off is a significant factor.
MAC – 9 Schools
Adds: Missouri and Northern Iowa in 2013, Old Dominion in 2014
Departs: None
Trend: Stable.
The MAC sent over half its wrestlers to the NCAA’s in 2016. Saw the Missouri-bounce in 2013, going from 42% the year before, to 50%, but not calling that anything more than a realignment result.
At about 10% of its conference wrestlers earning AA, the MAC is the 4th strongest conference, using this metric. This number was trending down, and reached a low of 5% in 2012, but again, Missouri to the rescue in 2013, and the conference has been steady since.
ACC – 6 Schools
Adds: Pittsburgh in 2014
Departs: Maryland in 2015
Trend: Way up!
With 63%+ of all conference wrestlers going to NCAA’s in 2016, the ACC was the class of this year for that metric. Slightly more than 18% of all conference wrestlers earned AA, much higher than all conferences except the Big 10 (at 22%).
The numbers for these 7 years show a rise from 42% (2010) to 63% (2016) for NCAA Qualification, and 8% (2010) to 18% (2016) for AA. The improvement of NC State, and Virginia Tech over these 7 years is significant.
EWL – 7 Schools
Adds: Millersville in 2012, George Mason and Rider in 2014
Departs: West Virginia and Millersville (shut down program) in 2013
Trend: Roller coaster, way down in 2016.
On average, the EWL sends 33% of its wrestlers to NCAA’s and about 15% of all their wrestlers earn AA. Thing is, the conference NCAA % trended up during the 2011, 2012, and 2013 years, while trending down in 2014, 2015, and 2016. And their AA% was down (1.4%) in 2011, way up (18% and 20%) in 2012 and 2013, up again (32%) in 2015, before a precipitous fall (5%) in 2016. Edinboro, with 4 AA’s in 2015, and none in 2016 was part of the reason.
SC (Southern Conference) – 8 Schools
Adds: Campbell and Gardner-Webb in 2012, SIU-Edwardsville in 2013
Departs: UNC-Greensboro (shut down program in 2012)
Trend: Down.
Really consistent, with 18 to 23% of all conference wrestlers earning a spot at NCAA’s. However, the conference has not had an AA in the past 2 years, though that’s only down from 1 or 2 AA’s the 3 years prior (easier to talk numbers here than percentages). The SC is, by far, the worst-performing conference at NCAA’s.
So there you have it…but there’s one additional calculation I made. Above is all about the % of conference rosters qualify for NCAA’s or earn AA. But what about the % of conference qualifiers that become AA. It’s below, and other than that…hope you enjoyed!!
2016 Only (80 out of 330 wrestlers, or 24% on average, earn AA)
Big 10 – 39% of wrestlers that earned their way to NCAA’s, ended as All-Americans, way above 24%
Big 12 – 32 %
ACC – 29%
MAC – 21%
EIWA – 16%
Pac 12 – 16%
EWL – 5%
SC – 0%
