I usually stay away from predictions, but I'm going on record to predict that Lizzie Warren loses her shit by the time this is all said and done.
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaig...ominating-an-uncompetitive-far-left-candidate
Democrats are headed for a worst scenario: Nominating an uncompetitive far-left candidate. Doing so would amplify their 2016 debacle, when Hillary Clinton helped Donald Trump Trump win. So far, it looks like Democrats could do 2016 one better — for Trump, not themselves.
According to Real Clear Politics’ latest average of national polling on the Democrat contenders, the results differ almost imperceptibly from its average just prior to the first Democrat debates. The top eight have not changed positions and former Vice President Joe Biden still leads Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) by roughly 2-to-1. Changes to individual candidate totals are also relatively minor: Biden and Sanders have dropped by roughly 1 percent each, while Warren has gained almost 3 percent.
Yet, within these small changes, big repercussions loom for the Democrats.
Consensus holds that Biden had a bad first debate, but a better second one. Still he is going backward. More importantly, the establishment Democrats he represents are too. Prior to the first debate, the establishment (represented by Biden, Bullock, Delaney and Hickenlooper) collectively had 33.2 percent support; it is now at 32.2 percent. That means other establishment Democrats did not capture Biden’s lost support.
It was not only establishment Democrats who fell, “undecideds” did too. Prior to the first debate, the Real Clear Politics’ averages did not account for 11.8 percent of Democrats; now that figure is 10.6 percent.
While the establishment and undecideds shrank, the left of the Democrats’ field — everyone but “the establishment four” — have gained. Prior to the first debate, the left already held a collective 55 percent of support. Now, they hold 57.2 percent.
These trends point to several conclusions.
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaig...ominating-an-uncompetitive-far-left-candidate
Democrats are headed for a worst scenario: Nominating an uncompetitive far-left candidate. Doing so would amplify their 2016 debacle, when Hillary Clinton helped Donald Trump Trump win. So far, it looks like Democrats could do 2016 one better — for Trump, not themselves.
According to Real Clear Politics’ latest average of national polling on the Democrat contenders, the results differ almost imperceptibly from its average just prior to the first Democrat debates. The top eight have not changed positions and former Vice President Joe Biden still leads Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) by roughly 2-to-1. Changes to individual candidate totals are also relatively minor: Biden and Sanders have dropped by roughly 1 percent each, while Warren has gained almost 3 percent.
Yet, within these small changes, big repercussions loom for the Democrats.
Consensus holds that Biden had a bad first debate, but a better second one. Still he is going backward. More importantly, the establishment Democrats he represents are too. Prior to the first debate, the establishment (represented by Biden, Bullock, Delaney and Hickenlooper) collectively had 33.2 percent support; it is now at 32.2 percent. That means other establishment Democrats did not capture Biden’s lost support.
It was not only establishment Democrats who fell, “undecideds” did too. Prior to the first debate, the Real Clear Politics’ averages did not account for 11.8 percent of Democrats; now that figure is 10.6 percent.
While the establishment and undecideds shrank, the left of the Democrats’ field — everyone but “the establishment four” — have gained. Prior to the first debate, the left already held a collective 55 percent of support. Now, they hold 57.2 percent.
These trends point to several conclusions.
