Does anyone else think that PSU doesn't cover the 39 point spread?

[PeetzPoolBoy]

i think we're going to be somewhat surprised at the athleticism and resiliency of the GaSt defense. The spread is suggesting that we need to outscore GS by 10 pts per quarter.

I'm suspicious about PSU's ability to do so considering that we should be resting/protecting our stars after Q1.

 

[rmem]

Thanks for the insight, Desmond Howard.

 

[Bob78]

i think we're going to be somewhat surprised at the athleticism and resiliency of the GaSt defense. The spread is suggesting that we need to outscore GS by 10 pts per quarter.

Then good thing we are not playing Tenn. State, who beat Ga. State 17-10, despite all the Ga. State athleticism.
They did hold them Tenn State badboys to 17, though, so there's that for the Panther D.

66-12, PSU.
38-6 at the half.

 

[Grant Green]

The line moved down to -37, so........

 

[AWS1022]

Upset alert!

 

[zwick19050]

Then good thing we are not playing Tenn. State, who beat Ga. State 17-10, despite all the Ga. State athleticism.
They did hold them Tenn State badboys to 17, though, so there's that for the Panther D.

66-12, PSU.
38-6 at the half.

They lost to Wisconsin last year 23-17. Georgia State had the lead in the 4th qtr.

 

[Bob78]

They lost to Wisconsin last year 23-17. Georgia State had the lead in the 4th qtr.

We lost to Pitt last year, 42-39. We were down by 21 and came back to almost pull it out. 2016 was an interesting season. I remember it well.

Our coaches have looked at that Wisconsin film until they know it by heart. Ga. State shot their best shot in that game, and came up short.

This will be a lot more like us vs. Purdue in 2016 than Ga. State vs. Wisconsin last year. Only with a better defense on our side this time around.

 

[LaJolla Lion]

Not me.

 

[phillybillyreprise]

PSU is ranked 5 out of 130.
GaSt is ranked 128.

What do think the spread should be?

 

[PeetzPoolBoy]

PSU is ranked 5 out of 130.
GaSt is ranked 128.

What do think the spread should be?

27-1/2

 

[Obliviax]

spreads of that size always scare me and I run from them. The team and coaches couldn't care less winning by 35 or by 45. So it can easily be that they are up by 40 in the middle of the fourth quarter, dump the fourth team in (walk ons that deserve some game time) give up a field goal or lucky TD.

 

[androcles]

...I don't really care...
...I'm not betting on either team...
...I hope it's a good game and no one gets injured ... and I hope we win...but...
...after all, it is still just a game...

 

[Rip_E_2_Joe_PA]

Burp.

 

[phillybillyreprise]

PSU beat #61 by 19
and 103 by 52.

39 doesn't seem too high.

 

[LafayetteBear]

I understand that it's about the money, and not having to offer this team a home and home deal. But I have to say that I wish PSU never played an OOC team as crappy as this. At least they are an FBS team, having moved up from FCS in 2013, according to Wikipedia.

I know others (many?) here may disagree with me, and cite the fact that Washington played a crap OOC schedule last year and nonetheless made the CFB playoff, but I feel that PSU can readily procure, and beat, better opponents than Georgia State.

 

[Bob78]

27-1/2

So 35-7 covers that. Seems low to me.
If that was the line, the money would pour in on PSU and the line would move back to the mid-30s. At 39ish, the money tends to go to the dog. Then the line moves down to reflect that.

I see an O/U at 55, with a 37 pt spread. The oddsmakers thinking is that the final will be around 46-9, PSU.

I think we hang at least fiddy on 'em, poor bastards, and that their athletic wideouts will have a tough time keeping their poise after a couple of big hits. They get 2 first half FGs (ooo...nice catch; hey, good drive; let's see how Pry adjusts), and a late garbage time TD. We block the PAT.

 

[KCLion]

I understand that it's about the money, and not having to offer this team a home and home deal. But I have to say that I wish PSU never played an OOC team as crappy as this. At least they are an FBS team, having moved up from FCS in 2013, according to Wikipedia.

I know others (many?) here may disagree with me, and cite the fact that Washington played a crap OOC schedule last year and nonetheless made the CFB playoff, but I feel that PSU can readily procure, and beat, better opponents than Georgia State.

We had a camp at their facility. They hosted our guys, so this is a favor to the program. CJF became friends with their head coach. Similar favor to when Joe invited Brown in for a payday.

 

[NittanyLionRoar]

You do realize that the spread is set such that it's unlikely to be covered, right? We shouldn't expect to cover the spread, that would be out of the ordinary. It's close enough to the line that teams could cover it, so it's only slightly unlikely....but if any team could simply expect to cover the spread, there would be lots of rich people.

 

[PSU.:.]

I think PSU should cover fairly easily.

 

[Bob78]

You do realize that the spread is set such that it's unlikely to be covered, right? We shouldn't expect to cover the spread, that would be out of the ordinary. It's close enough to the line that teams could cover it, so it's only slightly unlikely....but if any team could simply expect to cover the spread, there would be lots of rich people.

Not sure if this is meant for me, but I'll respond anyway because it is an interesting conversation.

The line is set to tease half of the money bet to land on either side of the line. It's the best guess, and often extremely accurate, of the oddsmakers to divide the money evenly, and it is flexible enough to move as the money flows one way or the other. That takes into consideration the historical factors that keep money on the underdog in a large spread. It works far more often than not.

But, the large spreads do get beat, too, and mismatches like this one are often prime for that. I think this is one of those times. And I think we beat the Over, too. I don't always think that, but sometimes it seems like it is gonna happen.

The good news is, I have no money on the game, rarely ever do, and so I can say all this without a care about being right or wrong! All that matters is the win.

 

[ericstratton-rushchairman]

I better spread is an educated attempt by lines makers to get even money on both sides. It is more of a read of the psyche of the betting public than a definitive statement on one program vs another. If money gets too heavy on one side the line will move slightly to adjust.

 

[LafayetteBear]

We had a camp at their facility. They hosted our guys, so this is a favor to the program. CJF became friends with their head coach. Similar favor to when Joe invited Brown in for a payday.

Thanks for the info, KC. Did not know that. It explains a lot.

 

[zwick19050]

We lost to Pitt last year, 42-39. We were down by 21 and came back to almost pull it out. 2016 was an interesting season. I remember it well.

Our coaches have looked at that Wisconsin film until they know it by heart. Ga. State shot their best shot in that game, and came up short.

This will be a lot more like us vs. Purdue in 2016 than Ga. State vs. Wisconsin last year. Only with a better defense on our side this time around.

A lot of speculation in that post.

 

[Grant Green]

I better spread is an educated attempt by lines makers to get even money on both sides. It is more of a read of the psyche of the betting public than a definitive statement on one program vs another. If money gets too heavy on one side the line will move slightly to adjust.

The line is set to tease half of the money bet to land on either side of the line.

Often but not always. Sometimes sportsbooks will take a position on a game. They may set a line to attract a lot of public money when they feel strongly that they have a better than 50% chance to cover that spread. It happens more often these days as the sportsbooks press their oddsmakers to make bigger profits.
Also, they can't move the line too much and risk getting middled.

 

[heckmans]

You do realize that the spread is set such that it's unlikely to be covered, right? We shouldn't expect to cover the spread, that would be out of the ordinary. It's close enough to the line that teams could cover it, so it's only slightly unlikely....but if any team could simply expect to cover the spread, there would be lots of rich people.

What? Do you understand how a sportsbook works? It should be covered roughly 50% of the time.

 

[LemonEars]

Whether or not we beat the spread will be Coach Franklin's decision. If he has the first string play hard for four quarters then we will win by 80. If the first string plays only the first quarter and we run the ball up the middle every play the rest of the game then we will win by 25. The outcome of the game is Coach Franklin's decision.

 

[Nitwit]

I don't think we cover. CJF would rather play the 2nd and 3rd teamers or walk ons early. We won't see any attempt to run up the score against GA State. So I'm going with 42 - 10. They may even outscore us in the 4th quarter. Iowa Iowa Iowa Iowa Iowa

 

[Woodpecker]

A lot of speculation in that post.

Is there? Let's break it down: Speculation? Yes or No
We lost to Pitt last year, 42-39.No We were down by 21 No and came back to almost pull it out No. 2016 was an interesting season.No I remember it well. Hard to say. This might be an opinion but I suspect that it is not speculation.

Our coaches have looked at that Wisconsin film No until they know it by heart.Possibly Ga. State shot their best shot in that game Hard to say but I'll give you a yes, and came up short.No

This will be a lot more like us vs. Purdue in 2016 than Ga. State vs. Wisconsin last year.Yes Only with a better defense on our side this time around.Opinion again but I'm gonna side with a No here.
So, while there might be a couple of speculative phrases, I have a hard time saying that there is a lot.

 

[Bob78]

A lot of speculation in that post.

Of course, speculation is the point of the thread, which is talking about whether or not the point spread is covered.
What else would there be in any answer, at least prior to the game?
I assume you did not think I presented my answer as factual, unless you also assume I am back from the future..... and as far as you know.... I'm not.......! (Or am I?!?!!?)

 

[Bob78]

Is there? Let's break it down: Speculation? Yes or No
We lost to Pitt last year, 42-39.No We were down by 21 No and came back to almost pull it out No. 2016 was an interesting season.No I remember it well. Hard to say. This might be an opinion but I suspect that it is not speculation.

Our coaches have looked at that Wisconsin film No until they know it by heart.Possibly Ga. State shot their best shot in that game Hard to say but I'll give you a yes, and came up short.No

This will be a lot more like us vs. Purdue in 2016 than Ga. State vs. Wisconsin last year.Yes Only with a better defense on our side this time around.Opinion again but I'm gonna side with a No here.
So, while there might be a couple of speculative phrases, I have a hard time saying that there is a lot.

Thanks for covering for me there, Woody. I never what to think about those Lansdowne folks.

Note: I am speculating that the 19050 signifies Lansdowne. Could signify something else. After all, that is the nature of speculation, and the fun of it, too.
In any event, remember these numbers: 66-12.

 

[NittanyLionRoar]

What? Do you understand how a sportsbook works? It should be covered roughly 50% of the time.

I understand how it should work, but there are other factors at play. I was looking at the some stats that showed the actual outcome for favored college teams was about 47-49% depending on the source that provided the stats. It's only slight, but it exists.

 

[Indian rocks rich]

i think we're going to be somewhat surprised at the athleticism and resiliency of the GaSt defense. The spread is suggesting that we need to outscore GS by 10 pts per quarter.

I'm suspicious about PSU's ability to do so considering that we should be resting/protecting our stars after Q1.

Yea that's what you think That means a lot. Woooooo!!!

 

[Indian rocks rich]

Thanks for the insight, Desmond Howard.

That's funny right there I'll tell ya

 

[Indian rocks rich]

They lost to Wisconsin last year 23-17. Georgia State had the lead in the 4th qtr.

Exactly. Last year.

 

[Grant Green]

I understand how it should work, but there are other factors at play. I was looking at the some stats that showed the actual outcome for favored college teams was about 47-49% depending on the source that provided the stats. It's only slight, but it exists.

Under dogs are hitting about 57% this season, but over the long run, it's pretty close to 50%. If your stat was true, pros would be betting under dogs almost exclusively and the books would be losing money. That ain't happening.

 

[Judge Smails]

i think we're going to be somewhat surprised at the athleticism and resiliency of the GaSt defense. The spread is suggesting that we need to outscore GS by 10 pts per quarter.

I'm suspicious about PSU's ability to do so considering that we should be resting/protecting our stars after Q1.

 

[Judge Smails]

 

[PeetzPoolBoy]