Donald Trump's Chances of Winning 2024 Election Soar to Near-Record High
Donald Trump's odds of winning the 2024 presidential election surged to a near record high since he announced his candidacy in November 2022 with a leading bookmaker on Monday.
After the Supreme Court ruled unanimously that the former president can appear on the ballot in Colorado—overturning a previous decision from the state's supreme court—the Betfair odds on Trump securing a second term surged to 50 percent, up from 6/5 or 45.5 percent on Sunday.
Speaking to Newsweek, Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said the latest odds are Trump's most favorable with the company since he announced his 2024 presidential bid with the exception of "about an hour" in September when they hit 51 percent.
In December, the Colorado Supreme Court had concluded Trump was constitutionally ineligible to serve a second term as president due to "Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution," which deals with insurrection. The 14th Amendment states no person shall "hold any office, civil of military" if they previously swore an oath "to support the Constitution" then went on to engage in "insurrection or rebellion."
Trump's critics argue his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election result, including the storming of Congress by hundreds of his supporters on January 6 2021, constituted an insurrection thus making him ineligible to serve a second term.
The Supreme Court ruled "States have no power under the Constitution to enforce Section 3 [of the 14th Amendment] with respect to federal offices, especially the Presidency." It did not comment on whether Trump had engaged in an insurrection.
In the latest Betfair odds, released after Monday's ruling, President Joe Biden was the second most favored candidate to win in November with odds of 11/4, or 26.7 percent. He was followed by Michelle Obama, who hasn't announced a presidential bid and has endorsed Biden, on 13/1 or 7.1 percent.
Then came independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on 29/1, Vice President Kamala Harris on 37/1 and Republican candidate Nikki Haley on 41/1.
Like Michelle Obama, Harris hasn't launched her own bid for the 2024 presidential election and is currently Biden's running mate.
"Following yesterday's Supreme Court decision, punters have backed Donald Trump into one of his shortest positions on the Betfair Exchange market to win the 2024 US Election," Rosbottom told Newsweek via email. "He's the even money favourite, which gives him a 50% chance. He's only ever been shorter to win on one previous occasion, back in September. He clearly leads the way, with Joe Biden's chance of a second term drifting to 11/4."
Betfair odds gave Trump a 37 percent chance of securing reelection on the morning of Election Day in 2020. Trump would go on to lose the 2020 election to Biden.
Newsweek reached out to representatives of Donald Trump's presidential campaign by email outside of regular office hours on Tuesday. This article will be updated if they decide to comment.
On Sunday, Trump suffered his first Republican primary defeat when Haley won the party's Washington D.C. primary.
Primaries and caucuses are taking place in 15 states and one territory, though the latter only concerns the Democratic Party, in what is known as Super Tuesday. A convincing victory would move Trump within touching distance of the 2024 GOP presidential nomination.
The states being contested are Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia, along with the American Samoa territory.
