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Early 2025 NCAA Tournament discussions

Pennstate1985

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Mar 14, 2016
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(Mod - posts below moved from the OKST-VA Tech dual thread)


Yeah. There was definitely a sense of familiarity while watching OkieSt wrestle.
Despite the dual meet between OSU and Iowa currently looking like a 5 to 5 split by the end of the year I will be surprised if OSU hasn't separated themselves from any Hawk concerns.
Even if OSU beat Iowa head to head, I'd still take Iowa to place higher at nationals.
 
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OSU has a shot at second, the Hawks just can't finish second to the Nits.
My guess is Taylor's kids out perform expectations and Iowa not so much.
As of today, I'd also pick Iowa over OKST at nationals because of NCAA Tournament Math.

OKST's 3 best wrestlers (Hamiti, Plott, Hendrickson) each have 2 returning national champs at their weights, thus likely capped at 3rd. Spratley is the only other realistic top 4 guy.

If healthy, Iowa has 5 realistic top 4 guys (Ayala, Parco, Teemer, Caliendo, Buchanan). Probably 2-3 of them will make the finals, and Buchanan is currently the favorite.

OKST will score more bonus, and Iowa seems more likely to underperform. And if Teemer isn't right in March, then OKST will pass them.
 
As of today, I'd also pick Iowa over OKST at nationals because of NCAA Tournament Math.

OKST's 3 best wrestlers (Hamiti, Plott, Hendrickson) each have 2 returning national champs at their weights, thus likely capped at 3rd. Spratley is the only other realistic top 4 guy.

If healthy, Iowa has 5 realistic top 4 guys (Ayala, Parco, Teemer, Caliendo, Buchanan). Probably 2-3 of them will make the finals, and Buchanan is currently the favorite.

OKST will score more bonus, and Iowa seems more likely to underperform. And if Teemer isn't right in March, then OKST will pass them.
yep
 
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As of today, I'd also pick Iowa over OKST at nationals because of NCAA Tournament Math.

OKST's 3 best wrestlers (Hamiti, Plott, Hendrickson) each have 2 returning national champs at their weights, thus likely capped at 3rd. Spratley is the only other realistic top 4 guy.

If healthy, Iowa has 5 realistic top 4 guys (Ayala, Parco, Teemer, Caliendo, Buchanan). Probably 2-3 of them will make the finals, and Buchanan is currently the favorite.

OKST will score more bonus, and Iowa seems more likely to underperform. And if Teemer isn't right in March, then OKST will pass them.
Spratley could win. 125 is wide open again this year. Figs has always been inconsistent and is hurt again this year, so he’s not a strong favorite. Spratley is one of the guys good enough to step up and take it if he peaks at the right time (LL is as well).
 
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Spratley could win. 125 is wide open again this year. Figs has always been inconsistent and is hurt again this year, so he’s not a strong favorite. Spratley is one of the guys good enough to step up and take it if he peaks at the right time (LL is as well).
He is really good, but Spratley's weakness is on bottom. I've seen him fail to get out twice so far this year (to my recollection).
 
As of today, I'd also pick Iowa over OKST at nationals because of NCAA Tournament Math.

OKST's 3 best wrestlers (Hamiti, Plott, Hendrickson) each have 2 returning national champs at their weights, thus likely capped at 3rd. Spratley is the only other realistic top 4 guy.

If healthy, Iowa has 5 realistic top 4 guys (Ayala, Parco, Teemer, Caliendo, Buchanan). Probably 2-3 of them will make the finals, and Buchanan is currently the favorite.

OKST will score more bonus, and Iowa seems more likely to underperform. And if Teemer isn't right in March, then OKST will pass them.
I will go on a limb here and say Iowa's number of finalists will top out at 1.
3 in the top 5
and 5 AAs.
 
The way Ohio State clobbered Iowa State might they be in the same battle at OK State and Iowa. If Rocco was wrestling I'd put The Tan Toms right there in the mix.

Jesse Mendez and Kharchla both looked good, McCrone in a wide open 25, Buzakis is always dependent on who shows up. Feldman will be in a wild hwt bracket but I think he can take out Ben or hang with Wyatt when he's firing on all cylinders.
 
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Interesting point that if the current teams perform to expectations, the excitement at the NCAA tournament will be the competition for 2nd place.

Also, don’t forget the Brands’ March performance factor. Based on what we’re seeing so far, I think DT will have his guys doing their best in March. If Iowa follows the standard pattern, not so much.
 
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The way Ohio State clobbered Iowa State might they be in the same battle at OK State and Iowa. If Rocco was wrestling I'd put The Tan Toms right there in the mix.

Jesse Mendez and Kharchla both looked good, McCrone in a wide open 25, Buzakis is always dependent on who shows up. Feldman will be in a wild hwt bracket but I think he can take out Ben or hang with Wyatt when he's firing on all cylinders.
Iowa State wrestled backups at 125, 133, 149, 197, and HWT. All of them lost, and they gave up 20 of Ohio State's 29 points. Ohio State took care of business, but it's hard to draw any conclusions from that dual.

Mendez is their only possible finalist, and it's hard to say anybody else is a probable top 4. That will limit their team score at nationals.
 
The way Ohio State clobbered Iowa State might they be in the same battle at OK State and Iowa. If Rocco was wrestling I'd put The Tan Toms right there in the mix.

Jesse Mendez and Kharchla both looked good, McCrone in a wide open 25, Buzakis is always dependent on who shows up. Feldman will be in a wild hwt bracket but I think he can take out Ben or hang with Wyatt when he's firing on all cylinders.
I can't see Feldman ever hanging with a healthy Wyatt.
I would like to see both OSU become top tier teams and Cornell.
PSU at the top

Competing for 2 through 6
OSUX2
Cornell
Mich

Iowa, finishing 7th with their typical April finish of 10AAs, 6 finalists, 5 champs and 190 points. Damn, that reads like a 2025 Nittany Lion team. Who knew. All these years the folks on HR posting the April predictions for next year's Iowa finishes were simply dreaming of being Lion fans.
 
the 2 guys that worry me most Kasak and Davis at Nationals I have no reason!
Hmmm. To be perfectly honest, I don't have a worry in the world right now when it comes to this squad. A few guys might just need a loss here and there just to make Nationals more interesting.

Anyone on the team who doesn't AA would certainly at this point seem be a disappointment. It's Insane! Aside from that, in a few more weeks we might have to change that to anyone who isn't top 4... Yeah, we are getting greedy, but this team is more than special, and they are just getting started.

How in hell do we move on from an all time record scoring team, with a new one where the trajectory is still up from there?

There will never be another Cael. We need to stop and smell the roses because they are as sweet as they can be.

 
Hmmm. To be perfectly honest, I don't have a worry in the world right now when it comes to this squad. A few guys might just need a loss here and there just to make Nationals more interesting.

Anyone on the team who doesn't AA would certainly at this point seem be a disappointment. It's Insane! Aside from that, in a few more weeks we might have to change that to anyone who isn't top 4... Yeah, we are getting greedy, but this team is more than special, and they are just getting started.

How in hell do we move on from an all time record scoring team, with a new one where the trajectory is still up from there?

There will never be another Cael. We need to stop and smell the roses because they are as sweet as they can be.

I mean, this is a near historic recruiting class this year, and only the #1 pfp recruit in the class made the starting lineup (and not because any of them look disappointing in any way). Next year, we once again have two top 5 pfp recruits coming. The arrow is still pointed straight up.
 
Hmmm. To be perfectly honest, I don't have a worry in the world right now when it comes to this squad. A few guys might just need a loss here and there just to make Nationals more interesting.

Anyone on the team who doesn't AA would certainly at this point seem be a disappointment. It's Insane! Aside from that, in a few more weeks we might have to change that to anyone who isn't top 4... Yeah, we are getting greedy, but this team is more than special, and they are just getting started.

How in hell do we move on from an all time record scoring team, with a new one where the trajectory is still up from there?

There will never be another Cael. We need to stop and smell the roses because they are as sweet as they can be.

My next step that I would like to see is the 10 AAs. Don't want to look further until that is achieved. The fact that is realistic is amazing
 
I am excited to see how 174 plays out in March - Hamiti is a real threat to Keegan ... dual is scheduled for 2/2 ... will Keegan be back on the mat? Hamiti will need a W over Keegan for Levi to get #1 seed ... if that happens at Big 12s ... will they go 2/3?

157 B1Gs will be the weight I want to see most --- Kasak doesn't have much room for error, Friday night will be a nice test to see if the jump up drops Kasak in the rankings - I doubt we see Teemer / Kasak in the dual if Kasak beats Taylor.

Vince Robinson has looked great at 125 - he could be the spoiler in Philly depending on how the B1G plays out ...

McEnelly / Arnold match on 2/14 is looking like a treat for fans ... Okie St shouldn't count on top 3 points for Plott!

Still waiting on AJ to screw up ... I would have bet the house he would be done by now!

Mid January report: 2024-25 season is living up to the levels of excitement that I want!!
 
As of today, I'd also pick Iowa over OKST at nationals because of NCAA Tournament Math.

OKST's 3 best wrestlers (Hamiti, Plott, Hendrickson) each have 2 returning national champs at their weights, thus likely capped at 3rd. Spratley is the only other realistic top 4 guy.

If healthy, Iowa has 5 realistic top 4 guys (Ayala, Parco, Teemer, Caliendo, Buchanan). Probably 2-3 of them will make the finals, and Buchanan is currently the favorite.

OKST will score more bonus, and Iowa seems more likely to underperform. And if Teemer isn't right in March, then OKST will pass them.
I can see iowa having 1 in finals and possibly no one there but all depends on brackets. If iowa gets good seeds and a cpl get set up in a easy bracket then maybe 2-3
 
Jan 19: Portal closes to name starters for 1st coaches ranking (must have 8 matches at the same weight against D1 competition)
Jan 20-22: Portal open for coaches to submit rankings
Jan 23: First Top 33 Coaches Ranking Released
Feb 9: Portal closes to name starters for 2nd coaches ranking
Feb 10-12: Portal open for coaches to submit rankings
Feb 13: Second Top 33 Coaches Ranking Released and first RPI released (15 match minimum to be ranked in RPI)
Feb 23: Portal closes to name starts for 3rd coaches ranking and final matches to be included in final RPI for allocation selection
Feb 24-25: Portal open for 3rd coaches ranking
Feb 27: Third Top 33 Coaches Ranking Released and 2nd RPI released; Conference allocations for each weight released.
Mar 4: Portal for teams to select starters for postseason opens
Mar 9-10: Portal open for Top 33 Final Coaches Ranking
Mar 12: NCAA Championship Brackets Released
Mar 20: Session 1 (Noon ET) and Session 2 (7pm ET)
Mar 21: Session 3 (Noon ET) and Session 4 (8pm ET)
Mar 22: Session 5 (11am ET) and Session 6 (7pm ET)
 
Jan 19: Portal closes to name starters for 1st coaches ranking (must have 8 matches at the same weight against D1 competition)
Jan 20-22: Portal open for coaches to submit rankings
Jan 23: First Top 33 Coaches Ranking Released
Feb 9: Portal closes to name starters for 2nd coaches ranking
Feb 10-12: Portal open for coaches to submit rankings
Feb 13: Second Top 33 Coaches Ranking Released and first RPI released (15 match minimum to be ranked in RPI)
Feb 23: Portal closes to name starts for 3rd coaches ranking and final matches to be included in final RPI for allocation selection
Feb 24-25: Portal open for 3rd coaches ranking
Feb 27: Third Top 33 Coaches Ranking Released and 2nd RPI released; Conference allocations for each weight released.
Mar 4: Portal for teams to select starters for postseason opens
Mar 9-10: Portal open for Top 33 Final Coaches Ranking
Mar 12: NCAA Championship Brackets Released
Mar 20: Session 1 (Noon ET) and Session 2 (7pm ET)
Mar 21: Session 3 (Noon ET) and Session 4 (8pm ET)
Mar 22: Session 5 (11am ET) and Session 6 (7pm ET)
Kind of a parenthetical thought here, but I selfishly miss the days of being able to see my favorite wrestlers wrestle 30-40 times a year. Imagine, instead of Cael's record being 159-0 he ended up 89-0 or similar in today's wrestling landscape. It would still obviously be impressive, but in my mind it lacks the impressiveness of having wrestled many more matches. I do get the counter arguments as far as protecting the wrestlers from potential injuries from over-wrestling, but the wrestling fan in me still longs for more matches.

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Jan 19: Portal closes to name starters for 1st coaches ranking (must have 8 matches at the same weight against D1 competition)
Jan 20-22: Portal open for coaches to submit rankings
Jan 23: First Top 33 Coaches Ranking Released
Feb 9: Portal closes to name starters for 2nd coaches ranking
Feb 10-12: Portal open for coaches to submit rankings
Feb 13: Second Top 33 Coaches Ranking Released and first RPI released (15 match minimum to be ranked in RPI)
Feb 23: Portal closes to name starts for 3rd coaches ranking and final matches to be included in final RPI for allocation selection
Feb 24-25: Portal open for 3rd coaches ranking
Feb 27: Third Top 33 Coaches Ranking Released and 2nd RPI released; Conference allocations for each weight released.
Mar 4: Portal for teams to select starters for postseason opens
Mar 9-10: Portal open for Top 33 Final Coaches Ranking
Mar 12: NCAA Championship Brackets Released
Mar 20: Session 1 (Noon ET) and Session 2 (7pm ET)
Mar 21: Session 3 (Noon ET) and Session 4 (8pm ET)
Mar 22: Session 5 (11am ET) and Session 6 (7pm ET)
Welcome Home Yo GIF by Bombay Softwares
 
Jan 19: Portal closes to name starters for 1st coaches ranking (must have 8 matches at the same weight against D1 competition)
Jan 20-22: Portal open for coaches to submit rankings
Jan 23: First Top 33 Coaches Ranking Released
Feb 9: Portal closes to name starters for 2nd coaches ranking
Feb 10-12: Portal open for coaches to submit rankings
Feb 13: Second Top 33 Coaches Ranking Released and first RPI released (15 match minimum to be ranked in RPI)
Feb 23: Portal closes to name starts for 3rd coaches ranking and final matches to be included in final RPI for allocation selection
Feb 24-25: Portal open for 3rd coaches ranking
Feb 27: Third Top 33 Coaches Ranking Released and 2nd RPI released; Conference allocations for each weight released.
Mar 4: Portal for teams to select starters for postseason opens
Mar 9-10: Portal open for Top 33 Final Coaches Ranking
Mar 12: NCAA Championship Brackets Released
Mar 20: Session 1 (Noon ET) and Session 2 (7pm ET)
Mar 21: Session 3 (Noon ET) and Session 4 (8pm ET)
Mar 22: Session 5 (11am ET) and Session 6 (7pm ET)
You missed an important date.
Jan 31: Any remaining delusions by Iowa of winning a national title in 2025 are dashed.
 
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