FC: 538 College Football Predictor

[NittanyLionFan]

Anyone see or play around with 538's College Football Predictor? It allows you to play out some scenarios based on ESPN's FPI and a few other models. For instance, in a scenario where Penn State wins out and Michigan loses this Saturday (lol!), the model projects Penn State with a 36% chance to win the B1G and a 15% chance to make the CFP (and <1% chance to win it all). Obviously just for fun, but interesting perhaps nonetheless!

 

[Lion Lineage]

Had never heard of it. Thanks for bringing it to my attention. It does sound like fun and I'll definitely check it out.

 

[PaoliLion]

It would seem highly highly unlikely that a two loss team would make the playoff...even if Iowa does knock off UM. Very neat tool they have, but I'm not buying their odds

 

[Woodpecker]

It would seem highly highly unlikely that a two loss team would make the playoff...even if Iowa does knock off UM. Very neat tool they have, but I'm not buying their odds

Maybe you guys can help me out but, if Michigan would lose to Iowa (the original premise) and again to Ohio State (not that far-fetched IMO), wouldn't that ensure that a two-loss team wins the conference championship? I guess if that were to happen, there might be some likelihood that the conference champion doesn't get into the playoffs.

 

[ThePennsyOracle]

If 538's CFB indicator is anything like their election indicator....

 

[PSU0622]

It would seem highly highly unlikely that a two loss team would make the playoff...even if Iowa does knock off UM. Very neat tool they have, but I'm not buying their odds

Not true at all. If Penn State won the Big Ten Championship they would be in the playoff.

 

[PennStateNate]

I predicted Oklahoma to lose to Baylor and Michigan to lose to Iowa and it says less then 1% chance of that happening on a popup.

 

[NittanyLionFan]

If 538's CFB indicator is anything like their election indicator....

Lol - quite true! Lots of pollsters will have some explaining to do before the next election...

 

[ClarkstonMark]

Not true at all. If Penn State won the Big Ten Championship they would be in the playoff.

assuming Alabama, clemson, and Washington are in ....
would likely come down to Lousiville or PSU

I would like to think PSU would be in, but Lousiville is ahead at the moment. Pounding wisc in B10 champ would help PSU's case

 

[PennStateNate]

This thing is dumb, if you pick Oklahoma to lose to Baylor and us to win out, it says predict something else, less then a 1% chance for this outcome to happen.

 

[NittanyLionFan]

This thing is dumb, if you pick Oklahoma to lose to Baylor and us to win out, it says predict something else, less then a 1% chance for this outcome to happen.

Weird... it works for me if I choose the same (Oklahoma chance of winning conference cuts roughly in half and PSU's chance of same are unaffected... PSU's playoff chances increase from 3% to 4% in that scenario...). Are you sure that you don't have other boxes selected?

 

[NittanyLionFan]

I predicted Oklahoma to lose to Baylor and Michigan to lose to Iowa and it says less then 1% chance of that happening on a popup.

This one worked for me as well... perhaps another box is checked? I have gotten that message on several other options, but presumably the chance of those occurrences are less than 1% and therefore not modeled.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Maybe you guys can help me out but, if Michigan would lose to Iowa (the original premise) and again to Ohio State (not that far-fetched IMO), wouldn't that ensure that a two-loss team wins the conference championship? I guess if that were to happen, there might be some likelihood that the conference champion doesn't get into the playoffs.

Yes, if you're also assuming that we win out. If we dropped one of the last 3, then OSU could win it with only 1 loss.