A couple new polls today. The dem's favorite, Rasmussen, has the race narrowed down to 48-45 among 2,500 Likely Voters. That said, more detailed data is behind a pay wall, but its reasonable to assume that Rasmussen has a representative weighted sample of dems, independents, and republicans.
BUT an even more detailed poll oozing with available data came out today. That would be the Economist/YouGov poll which has Biden up 49-40 over Trump among 1,225 Registered Voters.
(Link to poll data: https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/t0qsgk3wcg/econTabReport.pdf )
The breakout of their weighted sample was 28.9% Republican, 35.0% Independent, and 36.0% Democrat.
Per the fake news standard, CNN, the breakout in 2016 was 36% Democrat (accurate weight), but then it was 33% Republican and 31% Independent. Big weighting difference there.
(Link to CNN Exit Polls: https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls )
Had the Economist/YouGov poll been weighted at 2016 levels (a fairly reasonable expectation with two vastly tainted candidates again), Biden would be ahead 46.7% to 42.9%, a margin of 3.8%, with 10.3% undecided.
In the poll Independents were very close on the two 41% to 39% favoring Biden with a whopping 20% of Independents being undecided, voting third party, or not planning to vote.
It is also worth noting that final popular vote margin in 2016 was 2.1%, so Trump is still outside of that margin. That said, this Economist/YouGov poll was based on Registered Voters rather than Likely Voters. That shift tends to favor Republicans. In 2016 when Economist/YouGov put out its final poll guess what the margin was? 4% and it was based on Likely Voters. Their sample was off as well. They had 38% Dem, 32% Ind, and 30% Republican.
Another fascinating trend is how current events have shaped the electorate. Specifically, Biden has a very real minority voter problem, while simultaneously he has materially cut into Trump's share of the white vote.
In 2016, Trump won whites 57-37. Economist/YouGov has Trump leading 49-43 right now. Thats a problem for Trump. A big one. What's kind of crazy though is how badly Biden is struggling with minority voters. Trump has made some gains, and lost some territory, but Biden is off by huge margins compared to Clinton.
In 2016 Hillary got 89% of the black vote. Biden is polling at 76%. Similarly, Hillary won Hispanic voters with 66%. Biden is polling at 54%. To add to this some additional context, Obama in 2012 won 93% of the black vote and 71% of the hispanic vote.
This race is FAR from over, and if the election were held today, it would be extremely close. The idea that Biden can sit in his basement and avoid facing the music until election day is a fallacy. He's effectively tied.
BUT an even more detailed poll oozing with available data came out today. That would be the Economist/YouGov poll which has Biden up 49-40 over Trump among 1,225 Registered Voters.
(Link to poll data: https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/t0qsgk3wcg/econTabReport.pdf )
The breakout of their weighted sample was 28.9% Republican, 35.0% Independent, and 36.0% Democrat.
Per the fake news standard, CNN, the breakout in 2016 was 36% Democrat (accurate weight), but then it was 33% Republican and 31% Independent. Big weighting difference there.
(Link to CNN Exit Polls: https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls )
Had the Economist/YouGov poll been weighted at 2016 levels (a fairly reasonable expectation with two vastly tainted candidates again), Biden would be ahead 46.7% to 42.9%, a margin of 3.8%, with 10.3% undecided.
In the poll Independents were very close on the two 41% to 39% favoring Biden with a whopping 20% of Independents being undecided, voting third party, or not planning to vote.
It is also worth noting that final popular vote margin in 2016 was 2.1%, so Trump is still outside of that margin. That said, this Economist/YouGov poll was based on Registered Voters rather than Likely Voters. That shift tends to favor Republicans. In 2016 when Economist/YouGov put out its final poll guess what the margin was? 4% and it was based on Likely Voters. Their sample was off as well. They had 38% Dem, 32% Ind, and 30% Republican.
Another fascinating trend is how current events have shaped the electorate. Specifically, Biden has a very real minority voter problem, while simultaneously he has materially cut into Trump's share of the white vote.
In 2016, Trump won whites 57-37. Economist/YouGov has Trump leading 49-43 right now. Thats a problem for Trump. A big one. What's kind of crazy though is how badly Biden is struggling with minority voters. Trump has made some gains, and lost some territory, but Biden is off by huge margins compared to Clinton.
In 2016 Hillary got 89% of the black vote. Biden is polling at 76%. Similarly, Hillary won Hispanic voters with 66%. Biden is polling at 54%. To add to this some additional context, Obama in 2012 won 93% of the black vote and 71% of the hispanic vote.
This race is FAR from over, and if the election were held today, it would be extremely close. The idea that Biden can sit in his basement and avoid facing the music until election day is a fallacy. He's effectively tied.
