How long do you think covid has been in the US?

[helixville]

I read an interesting article this week on the wjactv6 Johnstown site this week. There was a husband/wife that test positive for antibodies for covid. The were ill in december the husband was hospitalized and recovered. They tested negative for flu A and B, and strep. It is inferred in the article that they would have had covid in December.

My question is how long do you think covid was here before the March quarantine? There was plenty of "upper respiratory" illness late fall and early winter in our area (bedford/cambria/somerset). Could this have been covid? I know early on here it was speculated that was the case. Will there be confirmation of this by govt organizations?

 

[Rip_E_2_Joe_PA]

I read an interesting article this week on the wjactv6 Johnstown site this week. There was a husband/wife that test positive for antibodies for covid. The were ill in december the husband was hospitalized and recovered. They tested negative for flu A and B, and strep. It is inferred in the article that they would have had covid in December.

My question is how long do you think covid was here before the March quarantine? There was plenty of "upper respiratory" illness late fall and early winter in our area (bedford/cambria/somerset). Could this have been covid? I know early on here it was speculated that was the case. Will there be confirmation of this by govt organizations?

December makes sense to me for a lot of reasons.

 

[CoastGuard2018]

I read an interesting article this week on the wjactv6 Johnstown site this week. There was a husband/wife that test positive for antibodies for covid. The were ill in december the husband was hospitalized and recovered. They tested negative for flu A and B, and strep. It is inferred in the article that they would have had covid in December.

My question is how long do you think covid was here before the March quarantine? There was plenty of "upper respiratory" illness late fall and early winter in our area (bedford/cambria/somerset). Could this have been covid? I know early on here it was speculated that was the case. Will there be confirmation of this by govt organizations?

I think it was here at the latest by the Christmas Holiday period. Just my opinion but I have talked to numerous people in health care. I think there were numerous undiagnosed cases in January and February.

 

[BBG65]

The 1st confirmed case in the U.S. was right at the end of January. There are unconfirmed reports that it was circulating in China as far back as Nov., but it seems unlikely it was here that early. I had an upper respiratory illness with a cough in Oct., but It's very unlikely it was covid.

 

[PS4814]

My personal opinion is that it has been here since early last fall, namely the mysterious vaping deaths. To me that was the canary in the coal mine.

If not early all then late fall as in November my SO came down with a sickness that certainly resembled the flu/covid - high fever, cough that lasted for weeks, was tested for the flu but came back negative. The doctor said they had no answer to what it was.

 

[BudatPSU]

Only since there was "only one person who came in from China" and it was all "perfectly under control."
And further, "if we stop doing testing, pretty soon we will not have any new cases."

 

[psuaxe70]

My third grade granddaughter’s bff came back from a Christmas trip to China feeling sick. My granddaughter, son, and daughter in law were all sick in mid January. They had all had flu shots. They were never tested. There is so much contact with China that there must have been cases in December if not earlier.

 

[whart]

I read an interesting article this week on the wjactv6 Johnstown site this week. There was a husband/wife that test positive for antibodies for covid. The were ill in december the husband was hospitalized and recovered. They tested negative for flu A and B, and strep. It is inferred in the article that they would have had covid in December.

My question is how long do you think covid was here before the March quarantine? There was plenty of "upper respiratory" illness late fall and early winter in our area (bedford/cambria/somerset). Could this have been covid? I know early on here it was speculated that was the case. Will there be confirmation of this by govt organizations?

My sense is that it would be December. My youngest daughter was married in November at our home with almost 200 attendees in a Huge tent setup in our back yard. To our knowledge there have been zero guests who came down with the virus. Given that a Large Party tent with almost 200 people would be the ultimate Petri dish for community spread....my SWAG would be it began here in Texas sometime in late December. My wife was sick as all get out in mid January with similar covid symptoms with me having a mild 3 day version but not as intense. We both are getting tested to see if we indeed had an early case. Should be interesting.

 

[Art]

I read an interesting article this week on the wjactv6 Johnstown site this week. There was a husband/wife that test positive for antibodies for covid. The were ill in december the husband was hospitalized and recovered. They tested negative for flu A and B, and strep. It is inferred in the article that they would have had covid in December.

My question is how long do you think covid was here before the March quarantine? There was plenty of "upper respiratory" illness late fall and early winter in our area (bedford/cambria/somerset). Could this have been covid? I know early on here it was speculated that was the case. Will there be confirmation of this by govt organizations?

When? Anyone's guess

As far as getting definitive confirmation, by the government or anyone else, that the virus was here earlier than currently indicated, that's pretty much impossible.

 

[Lion Lineage]

For some reason in the winter I tend to get an upper respiratory infection late January early February. This past winter I got one in November, which was odd, then again in late January. Living near a major university and with the traveling I did in the US for business I wouldn’t be surprised if I tested positive for the antibodies. Both were bad infections producing fever, chills, and a bad cough. But the cough wasn’t dry, so maybe it wasn’t COVID-19. Never saw a doctor because I’m accustomed to getting an upper respiratory infection and generally get over it in two weeks no problem. I think one of them lasted a bit longer - but otherwise they didn’t seem to be out of the ordinary. And I had the flu vaccine. So who knows. The rest of the year I’m never sick. I guess I’m particularly susceptible to something in the winter months.

 

[BW Lion]

If the uncorroborated cell-phone data blackout at the Wuhan lab in early-mid October is correct, it would make sense that it arrived in the USA, probably in/near a major metropolitan area, by late November or early December.

 

[bison13]

If the uncorroborated cell-phone data blackout at the Wuhan lab in early-mid October is correct, it would make sense that it arrived in the USA, probably in/near a major metropolitan area, by late November or early December.

A very good friend working on covid testing for nih said there is a solid portion of those he works with that believe Thanksgiving or even a bit earlier.

 

[katchthis]

My personal opinion is that it has been here since early last fall, namely the mysterious vaping deaths. To me that was the canary in the coal mine.

If not early all then late fall as in November my SO came down with a sickness that certainly resembled the flu/covid - high fever, cough that lasted for weeks, was tested for the flu but came back negative. The doctor said they had no answer to what it was.

vaping deaths were largely young people with popcorn lung.

 

[CentexLion]

When? Anyone's guess

As far as getting definitive confirmation, by the government or anyone else, that the virus was here earlier than currently indicated, that's pretty much impossible.

Agree. So I'm guessing it was here Sept 30, 2018 during Franklin's 4th and run up the middle play. Covid affected the play calling and lost us the game. Or maybe as early as 2012, during the BOT deliberation to kill the PSU football and school reputation. Unfortunately, it was the non-lethal version, that just scrambled their brains and morals. Can anybody disprove it?

 

[Player2BNamedL8r]

I read an interesting article this week on the wjactv6 Johnstown site this week. There was a husband/wife that test positive for antibodies for covid. The were ill in december the husband was hospitalized and recovered. They tested negative for flu A and B, and strep. It is inferred in the article that they would have had covid in December.

My question is how long do you think covid was here before the March quarantine? There was plenty of "upper respiratory" illness late fall and early winter in our area (bedford/cambria/somerset). Could this have been covid? I know early on here it was speculated that was the case. Will there be confirmation of this by govt organizations?

My wife had a cough/chest cold that she couldn’t shake from Thanksgiving through the new year. Doctors never figured out what it was. We live on the coast in new england, so plenty of international travel in/out of our area.

 

[OhioLion]

A very good friend working on covid testing for nih said there is a solid portion of those he works with that believe Thanksgiving or even a bit earlier.

Several students at our high school were out last year with flu-like symptoms. All testing for flu A, B, C..., and strep were negative.
Stayed home a week and came back to school. That was around Thanksgiving.
Baseball coach in January and softball coach in February. Both same as students - symptoms, test for flu and strep, those come back negative, go home and rest a week.

OL

 

[ralphster]

It is highly unlikely anyone in this country had COVID-19 prior to December. But you will hear about people testing positive for antibodies who have had no viral symptoms since prior to then. It would very likely be a false positive. Let me explain:

If you get the antibody test that is being used by Quest or LabCorp, you are likely getting the Abbott "Architect" test. It has a specificity of 99.6%. That sounds pretty good. However, specificity is only useful when looked at in light of the prevalence of disease. Only by looking at both of these, can you come up with a positive predictive value, what is what you really want. Positive predictive value means negativity in the absence of disease.

In some parts of the country, the disease prevalence is approaching 20%, so the positive predictive value would be high, and a positive test would be likely to actually represent exposure to the disease.

In my part of the country, and probably many others, the prevalence is likely closer to 2%. If you have a prevalence of 2% and use a test with a specificity of 99.6%, you will have 16.7% FALSE positives. Probably the people who have a positive antibody test and think they got the disease prior to December are FALSE positives.

In addition, the influenza test used in most physician offices and EDs that takes 15 minutes is only about 50% sensitive, so many people have influenza and test negative.

Furthermore, there are many other respiratory viruses that give fever, rhinitis, cough, etc. that are NOT influenza or SARS-CoV-2. Examples are metapneumovirus, respiratory syncitial virus, other coronoviruses, and rhinoviruses.

 

[rll1957]

My wife and I and best friend all had terrible cold. Weeks long cough and fever in early December. Attended Psu game in late November with friend from philly who happens to work as entertainer on cruise ships in pacific. No way to know but it was worst cold and cough of my life and I’m 62

 

[83wuzme]

With a over a million people a day flying into and out of the US before the lockdown, it had ample opportunity to arrive. This virus is highly transmissible, if it had been here earlier, say, prior to Thanksgiving, it would be reasonable to expect earlier peaks. It was certainly in the US around Christmastime.

 

[CDLionFL]

My friend tested positive for the covid antibody and she traces her sickness back to early-mid December. Her husband was sick prior to that with similar symptoms. Amazingly, a dozen of us were on a work trip with her during this time and none of us came down with anything. So I'd count that as a stroke of luck.

 

[mrmk5110]

Most likely was here by the end of December, however also remember that the Flu-B was really bad this year as well and so a lot of the symptoms that people were saying they were having around that time could have resulted from that as well (I had some coworkers around that time that tested positive for flu-b)

 

[UncleLar]

I read an interesting article this week on the wjactv6 Johnstown site this week. There was a husband/wife that test positive for antibodies for covid. The were ill in december the husband was hospitalized and recovered. They tested negative for flu A and B, and strep. It is inferred in the article that they would have had covid in December.

My question is how long do you think covid was here before the March quarantine? There was plenty of "upper respiratory" illness late fall and early winter in our area (bedford/cambria/somerset). Could this have been covid? I know early on here it was speculated that was the case. Will there be confirmation of this by govt organizations?

I'm going to continue to believe that the best way to determine this is to test fatalities during Dec/Jan. Until you find someone in the US who died in that timeframe and was COVID-19, I'm not going to believe the virus was here any earlier than has already been identified. There's no way that people were getting infected for months without some dying. So show me the bodies.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

vaping deaths were largely young people with popcorn lung.

Yeah - irreversibly scarring their lungs by inhaling diacetyl or pot resin. Bad news

 

[dontgojoepa]

I'm going to continue to believe that the best way to determine this is to test fatalities during Dec/Jan. Until you find someone in the US who died in that timeframe and was COVID-19, I'm not going to believe the virus was here any earlier than has already been identified. There's no way that people were getting infected for months without some dying. So show me the bodies.

Well - I tested positive for the antibodies and I was symptomatic in mid-Feb (deep cough lasted 5 weeks and still have some minor lingering effects even today). Although not December - I believe that is still earlier than initially identified.

 

[TheGLOV]

I read an interesting article this week on the wjactv6 Johnstown site this week. There was a husband/wife that test positive for antibodies for covid. The were ill in december the husband was hospitalized and recovered. They tested negative for flu A and B, and strep. It is inferred in the article that they would have had covid in December.

My question is how long do you think covid was here before the March quarantine? There was plenty of "upper respiratory" illness late fall and early winter in our area (bedford/cambria/somerset). Could this have been covid? I know early on here it was speculated that was the case. Will there be confirmation of this by govt organizations?

I’m positive it was out here in Las Vegas around Thanksgiving. I had a dry hacking cough for 3 weeks or so. I’d lay money that it arrived here via the jet-stream!!

 

[Ski]

I think it was here at the latest by the Christmas Holiday period. Just my opinion but I have talked to numerous people in health care. I think there were numerous undiagnosed cases in January and February.

I believe I had it (not confirmed) by January 27th. Have a coworker whose spouse lives in Vancouver CA. He traveled there for a couple of weeks after New Years through Seattle WA. He came back with a persistent cough and about 10 days later I got the persistent cough as well. Dry nose and throat, but congestion in my chest. When I would lay down at night in bed I would cough for about 30 minutes, I think from the fluid moving around in my lungs, before I could sleep. I was fine after about 5 days. I have thought about getting the antibody test, but I don't have $160 worth of curiosity to know for sure.

 

[CoastGuard2018]

I believe I had it (not confirmed) by January 27th. Have a coworker whose spouse lives in Vancouver CA. He traveled there for a couple of weeks after New Years through Seattle WA. He came back with a persistent cough and about 10 days later I got the persistent cough as well. Dry nose and throat, but congestion in my chest. When I would lay down at night in bed I would cough for about 30 minutes, I think from the fluid moving around, before I could sleep. I was fine after about 5 days. I have thought about getting the antibody test, but I don't have $160 worth of curiosity to know for sure.

Had a 13 day dry cough in mid February and my sense of taste was messed up. I thought it was weird at the time but didn’t really think Covid. I almost made an appointment because of the taste issue but it went away. Wife was sick about a week before with an intermittent fever that would go and then reappear.

 

[UncleLar]

Well - I tested positive for the antibodies and I was symptomatic in mid-Feb (deep cough lasted 5 weeks and still have some minor lingering effects even today). Although not December - I believe that is still earlier than initially identified.

The earliest confirmed US case was in Washington state January 20th. He became symptomatic five days earlier shortly after returning to the U.S. from Wuhon. The earliest death in the U.S. was a San Jose CA women who died in her home on Feb 6th. So even if that was when you were infected, it wasn't earlier than previously reported.

 

[shifix]

I read an interesting article this week on the wjactv6 Johnstown site this week. There was a husband/wife that test positive for antibodies for covid. The were ill in december the husband was hospitalized and recovered. They tested negative for flu A and B, and strep. It is inferred in the article that they would have had covid in December.

My question is how long do you think covid was here before the March quarantine? There was plenty of "upper respiratory" illness late fall and early winter in our area (bedford/cambria/somerset). Could this have been covid? I know early on here it was speculated that was the case. Will there be confirmation of this by govt organizations?

 

[shifix]

I believe it was here as early as December 2019.

 

[ralphster]

There are literally a hundred different strains of various respiratory viruses out there that could give you fevers, snot, sore throat, and cough lasting for a month. You all did not have the novel coronavirus in 2019. And if you know about how tests work, if you have a friend of a friend who has positive antibodies despite no disease symptoms in 2020, and they are from a low prevalence area, they are a false positive.

 

[PSUFBFAN]

The earliest confirmed US case was in Washington state January 20th. He became symptomatic five days earlier shortly after returning to the U.S. from Wuhon. The earliest death in the U.S. was a San Jose CA women who died in her home on Feb 6th. So even if that was when you were infected, it wasn't earlier than previously reported.

The earliest confirmed US case was in Washington state January 20th.

Just because that was the earliest CONFIRMED case doesn't mean it wasn't here weeks prior and the medical community had very little awareness of it and thus, wasn't testing for it (were covid tests even available in the USA in Nov and Dec?).

Considering the amount of daily travel between China and the USA, I find it very believable the virus was circulating in the USA prior to "that WA guy that returned from Wuhan in Jan". Hard to believe that his infection caused the death of the lady in San Jose two weeks later.

 

[Art]

I'm going to continue to believe that the best way to determine this is to test fatalities during Dec/Jan. Until you find someone in the US who died in that timeframe and was COVID-19, I'm not going to believe the virus was here any earlier than has already been identified. There's no way that people were getting infected for months without some dying. So show me the bodies.

I have the same inclination, but testing post-mortem going back that long is iffy, assuming one could get permission to exhume bodies.

 

[Woodpecker]

Years.

It was here and it was a non factor. End the lockdown

May 31, 2017: Covfefe!

 

[Art]

May 31, 2017: Covfefe!

The mystery is revealed! Who woulda thunk it?

 

[PearlSUJam]

There are literally a hundred different strains of various respiratory viruses out there that could give you fevers, snot, sore throat, and cough lasting for a month. You all did not have the novel coronavirus in 2019. And if you know about how tests work, if you have a friend of a friend who has positive antibodies despite no disease symptoms in 2020, and they are from a low prevalence area, they

https://bwi.forums.rivals.com/threads/was-the-first-case-really-in-the-northwest.266188/

So I've had 6 chest xrays since mid January and it's finally showing signs of healing. Are you saying it's pointless for me to get a test at Quest tomorrow?

 

[roswelllion]

I read an interesting article this week on the wjactv6 Johnstown site this week. There was a husband/wife that test positive for antibodies for covid. The were ill in december the husband was hospitalized and recovered. They tested negative for flu A and B, and strep. It is inferred in the article that they would have had covid in December.

My question is how long do you think covid was here before the March quarantine? There was plenty of "upper respiratory" illness late fall and early winter in our area (bedford/cambria/somerset). Could this have been covid? I know early on here it was speculated that was the case. Will there be confirmation of this by govt organizations?

I know a lot of folks hope that is the case as that would spread the immunities, but my question is if it was here earlier why did
. we just the spikes in March-May and
. why the rash of deaths in March - May

 

[ralphster]

https://bwi.forums.rivals.com/threads/was-the-first-case-really-in-the-northwest.266188/

So I've had 6 chest xrays since mid January and it's finally showing signs of healing. Are you saying it's pointless for me to get a test at Quest tomorrow?

Your case sounds like a decent possibility of being COVID-19. Some of the others in this thread do not. I was just trying to get everyone to realize that a positive test result is not always true.

If someone's symptoms started in January, and you live in a "hot area" like NE PA (or visited Wuhan!), then no, of course it is not pointless to test. But if your symptoms started in November and you live in say rural central PA, then you have a very good chance of having a positive antibody test result be a false positive. The chance of ANY positive test result for ANY disease being a true positive depends on the likelihood of your having the disease in the first place.

As I have written in another thread, if the sensitivity of the Quest test is 99.6% (it is), but the prevalence of disease in your area is just 2% (it is estimated to be in my area), you will have a 16.4% chance of being a false positive. So hopefully you can use this to make your own decision as to whether the test is right for you or not. Good luck!

 

[sluggo72]

I think October. My wife and I had something whose symptoms are e
What Covid are. Went to the hospital the MD said it going around. It’s not the flu, but we don’t know what it is. They were going to test us, but didn’t. I still don’t understand why. Was it because they were worried what they found? IDK

 

[ralphster]

^^^^
Yes. It's a big conspiracy.