I enjoyed the Penn State era....Flo picks the bucks

[diggerpup]

I'll toss this out ...

Due to the dilution of NCAAs vs our elite guys (1st & 2nd rounds)

... compared to B1Gs, where our elite guys take BYEs and vault right to quarters.

.... and that corresponding artificial reduction in PSU Bonus Point potential:

At Big Tens, I'd guess tOSU will be slight favorites over PSU - largely because of tourney structure.

The Buckeyes could easily have 6 or 7 finalists at Big Tens, and PSU will have reduced bonus due to seeding & BYEs.

 

[manmythlegend1]

I do NOT underestimate our opponent. tOSU is a phenominal team at the wrong time.

Basically in every scenario I've seen where tOSU is predicted ahead of us it's always the same. Our guys get worse and others get better and I don't buy that.

Out of our 5 champs, I see 4 of them as favorites so NO I don't see them going down. Joseph will be 1-3. So you have 100+ points from 4 champs and let's say 16 for Joseph. You are now at 120 points or so with nothing from Nevills, Lee, Cutch, Cortez/Keener (whoever mans 133). I don't see tOSU beating that unless you want to predict Snyder, NAto, Jordan and Moore all win NC's which I don't believe. Even if they all did..those 4 aren't scoring more than 100 points (factoring bonus).

So yes..anyone can predict the perfect storm for tOSU..the difference is..we are proven..they aren't. So why would they get the edge?

I think your logic is sound here. What scares me is that I think tOSU will have 1 or 2 more AA than PSU. If we run the table again this will not matter but that is alot of pressure to have another great tourney. No real margin for error especially if Snyder, Moore and tomassssssellllllo have no let downs...Hayes scares me also, he is very good.(I think Lee is better though) This race is going to be so much f*n to watch

 

[manmythlegend1]

tOSU does have an extremely strong team that is fully capable of wining it. It just seems that PSU doesn't get the benefit of the doubt much for a team that consistently peaks at nationals. Throw that on top of keeping OSU ahead last year despite FLO's own individual rankings saying otherwise and you can see how we start to question their reasoning.

Very Good Point!!!

 

[KidNittany]

tOSU does have an extremely strong team that is fully capable of wining it. It just seems that PSU doesn't get the benefit of the doubt much for a team that consistatly peaks at nationals. Throw that on top of keeping OSU ahead last year despite FLO's own individual rankings saying otherwise and you can see how we start to question their reasoning.

Eh, I do think that Flo has given PSU a few instances of benefit of the doubt with the "Penn State Bump" but maybe I'm misremembering

 

[CropDuster507]

Ya'll gotta chill. It's an article. It's one dude's opinion.
6 titles in the last 7 years, and we're bitching about an internet article? 3x, undefeated state champ from a rival school's state commits, and we're bitching about an internet article?

I'm all for being uppity, but let's pick our spots, guys.

 

[Crusher1950]

How can you have 5 national champs and not be favored? Just more idiots not knowing what they are talking about

 

[funkisfun12]

compared to B1Gs, where our elite guys take BYEs and vault right to quarters.

tOSU could get a similar number of byes to the quarters as well, no? Definitely Snyder, probably Moore, Tomasello, maybe Myles, Mckenna? Is it only top seeds, or random amongst the higher seeds?

 

[smalls103]

no, no, no.

if you think it's clickbait....i'm over it. i won't defend it.

if you think a plausible scenario is click bait, that's ok.

i'll have my rebuttal though

 

[KidNittany]

no, no, no.

if you think it's clickbait....i'm over it. i won't defend it.

if you think a plausible scenario is click bait, that's ok.

i'll have my rebuttal though

All plausible scenarios are clickbait if they don't end well for us

 

[Ian]

It will be a battle but historically (since Cael) very few teams have been able to deliver as expected like PSU. They have always peaked at the right time. Every year someone is picked to knock them off but they don’t. O$U is stacked but they potentially have three guys cutting weight. That takes its toll late in the year. Besides, PSU has fun. Others don’t seem to.....

 

[86PSUPaul]

F*#! That dirty word!

 

[Pennstate1985]

F*#! That dirty word!

FUN. Post it with pride!

 

[86PSUPaul]

I was pretending i was an HR poster, but can’t pull it off, it is too much FUN supporting our NITS!

 

[RoarLions1]

no, no, no.

if you think it's clickbait....i'm over it. i won't defend it.

if you think a plausible scenario is click bait, that's ok.

i'll have my rebuttal though

Anyone that believes it's not plausible should remove their b&w shades. tOSU has a dangerous team, talented at every weight class. It'll bring out the best in the PSU guys, so we'll just have to wait and see. I like our chances.

Based on the "compression" of the seedings (there's another thread where this is discussed in more detail), Big Ten's will be tougher to win for Penn State than NCAA's, on way-too-early information.

You'll get no bravado from me...I'm going to sit back and do my thing, enjoying and being grateful for the current state of Penn State wrestling.

 

[RoarLions1]

... compared to B1Gs, where our elite guys take BYEs and vault right to quarters.

.... and that corresponding artificial reduction in PSU Bonus Point potential:

Not necessarily true. Only happens if there are 9 or more allocation spots at that weight class. Random draw determines bye's otherwise, and a #1 or #2 seed has a 75% chance of a 1st Round bout (or conversely, a 25% chance of a bye).

 

[NittanyChris]

If Daton Fix and Spencer Lee do not redshirt, NATO could very well finish FOURTH behind those two and Suriano.
A very realistic possibility with him cutting a lot of weight AND coming off a significant injury.

 

[NoVa Lion]

tOSU could get a similar number of byes to the quarters as well, no? Definitely Snyder, probably Moore, Tomasello, maybe Myles, Mckenna? Is it only top seeds, or random amongst the higher seeds?

Yes, they could. Based on Flo's preseason rankings both tOSU and PSU would have 6 wrestlers seeded #1 or #2 at BIGs. More importantly for the team title is that there are only 14 teams. Again based on Flo's preseason rankings tOSU at BIGs would have 3 champs, 3 2nds, 2 3rds, and 2 5ths. We would have 4 champs and 2 2nds, 1 3rd and 3 DNP. I don't think we will actually have 3 DNP, but we will almost certainly have 1 and that will make a BIG team title difficult. Very similar to what happened last year where tOSU won BIGs and we won NCAAs in a BIG way.

 

[RoarLions1]

tOSU could get a similar number of byes to the quarters as well, no? Definitely Snyder, probably Moore, Tomasello, maybe Myles, Mckenna? Is it only top seeds, or random amongst the higher seeds?

For the Big Ten bracketing...

-- If there are 9 or more allocation spots, that weight class is seeded though 14, and the #1 and #2 seeds GET BYES.
-- If there are 8 or fewer, the weight class is seeded through 8, those 8 are placed in the brackets, and the remaining 6 are randomly drawn into the brackets, meaning a #1 or #2 seed could have a 1st Round bout (75% chance of having one, 25% chance of not having one).
-- This past March, 5 weight classes (133, 141, 157, 174, 184) were seeded to 14, 5 were seeded to 8.

tOSU and PSU could have the same number of 1st round byes, or they might not. The overall strength of the conference (# of allocation spots at each weight), and then the luck of the draw will determine byes.

 

[funkisfun12]

For the Big Ten bracketing...

-- If there are 9 or more allocation spots, that weight class is seeded though 14, and the #1 and #2 seeds GET BYES.
-- If there are 8 or fewer, the weight class is seeded through 8, those 8 are placed in the brackets, and the remaining 6 are randomly drawn into the brackets, meaning a #1 or #2 seed could have a 1st Round bout (75% chance of having one, 25% chance of not having one).
-- This past March, 5 weight classes (133, 141, 157, 174, 184) were seeded to 14, 5 were seeded to 8.

tOSU and PSU could have the same number of 1st round byes, or they might not. The overall strength of the conference (# of allocation spots at each weight), and then the luck of the draw will determine byes.

Thank you Roar!

 

[matter7172]

no, no, no.

if you think it's clickbait....i'm over it. i won't defend it.

if you think a plausible scenario is click bait, that's ok.

i'll have my rebuttal though

I think it's sort of a best case for tOSU and middling case for PSU. I'll be a little surprised if everything goes so well for the Buckeyes and as poorly for PSU. But it is refreshingly straightforward and explained. Personally, I have a little trepidation about this season's NCAAs. The perfect storm could occur but I still feel good about the Nittany Lions' chances for 7 of 8.

And to think I coached the author when he was a junior high wrestler.

 

[LemonPie]

For those who are saying click-bait...

Let's talk about a popular phrase real quick

"beating Nico in the room."

That should be considered "like"-bait, and it's far far worse.

 

[Cali_Nittany]

For those who are saying click-bait...

Let's talk about a popular phrase real quick

"beating Nico in the room."

That should be considered "like"-bait, and it's far far worse.

I heard Teske was beating Nico in the room during his official visit. Spyker told me that Cael emailed him about it.

 

[JOESTROSSER]

I heard Keener has been healthy so I hope that continues. Injury bug has really impacted his career. He stays healthy he could surprise some people.

 

[pish69]

Who will Flo pick to win next year? They've been wrong 3 yrs in a row now..

I love bringing these old threads to life after the fact.

Until someone knocks us off the top wer'e number 1

 

[Chickenman Testa]

This analysis aged well.

 

[SRATH]

I’m picking State, Penn State. It is what I do!

 

[NittanyChris]

Next year they'll pick Iowa or maybe Oklahoma St.

 

[ptomaselli]

125: Prediction PSU-Nada, OSU-2nd, Actual PSU-Nada, OSU 3rd...(OSU under-performs prediction)
133: Prediction PSU-1 win, OSU-6th, Actual PSU-1 win, OSU 4th...(OSU over-performs prediction)
141: Prediction PSU-R16, OSU-3rd, Actual PSU-5th, OSU 3rd...(PSU over-performs prediction)
149: Prediction PSU-1st, OSU-5th, Actual PSU-1st, OSU DNP (OSU under-performs prediction)
157: Prediction PSU-1st, OSU-4th, Actual PSU-1st, OSU 6th...(OSU under-performs prediction)
165: Prediction PSU-3rd, OSU-DNP, Actual PSU-1st, OSU DNP...(PSU over-performs prediction)
174: Prediction OSU's Jordan edges Hall, Actual PSU-1st, OSU 5th...(PSU over-performs prediction)
184: Prediction PSU-1st, OSU 2nd, Actual PSU-1st, OSU 2nd...(Correct)
197: Prediction PSU-5th, OSU-1st, Actual PSU-7th, OSU 4th...(PSU & OSU under-perform prediction)
285: Prediction PSU-4th, OSU-1st, Actual PSU-7th, OSU 1st...(PSU under-performs prediction)

Flo Correct on PSU: 5 times
Flo Correct on OSU: 4 times

Flo was wrong...a lot.

 

[LemonPie]

This analysis aged well.

While overall it wasn't terrible, the 174 analysis does stick out as exceptionally bad. Come on Spey, you can't let one shirtless circuit routine sway you like that.

 

[dunkej01]

While overall it wasn't terrible, the 174 analysis does stick out as exceptionally bad. Come on Spey, you can't let one shirtless circuit routine sway you like that.

Flo loves deadlifts

 

[nitlion6]

Flo will start the year with Penn State 4th, 5th or 6th. Three freshmen in the first 4 weights.
Iowa and Okie St will be 1 and 2.
Assuming Penn State and Okie State send regulars to Scuffle and Penn State dominates Scuffle and assuming Tommy refuses to travel to Penn State for a dual, by the end of the regular season Penn State will be 3rd with whoever wins the dual between Iowa and Okie St ranked 1 and the loser 2nd.

 

[psumacw]

125: Prediction PSU-Nada, OSU-2nd, Actual PSU-Nada, OSU 3rd...(OSU under-performs prediction)
133: Prediction PSU-1 win, OSU-6th, Actual PSU-1 win, OSU 4th...(OSU over-performs prediction)
141: Prediction PSU-R16, OSU-3rd, Actual PSU-5th, OSU 3rd...(PSU over-performs prediction)
149: Prediction PSU-1st, OSU-5th, Actual PSU-1st, OSU DNP (OSU under-performs prediction)
157: Prediction PSU-1st, OSU-4th, Actual PSU-1st, OSU 6th...(OSU under-performs prediction)
165: Prediction PSU-3rd, OSU-DNP, Actual PSU-1st, OSU DNP...(PSU over-performs prediction)
174: Prediction OSU's Jordan edges Hall, Actual PSU-1st, OSU 5th...(PSU over-performs prediction)
184: Prediction PSU-1st, OSU 2nd, Actual PSU-1st, OSU 2nd...(Correct)
197: Prediction PSU-5th, OSU-1st, Actual PSU-7th, OSU 4th...(PSU & OSU under-perform prediction)
285: Prediction PSU-4th, OSU-1st, Actual PSU-7th, OSU 1st...(PSU under-performs prediction)

Flo Correct on PSU: 5 times
Flo Correct on OSU: 4 times

Flo was wrong...a lot.

i think you're being a little too demanding on some of these. i'm only counting 4 material differences: PSU 141, OSU 149, OSU 174, OSU 197. i'm not going to quibble with nato taking 3rd instead of 2nd or even cenzo winning instead of placing 3rd when they say "Cenzo could win it all again, but I think third is more likely". the rest of the predicted ~4th/finished ~7th is small beans.