Illinois is unlike any team we have played thus far.
ILLINOIS OFFENSIVELY:
They are a dink-and-dunk offense (they throw the ball 60% of the time)
Their QB is a typical B12 type....sit back in the shotgun and distribute out of the short passing game.
He is NOT a runner....but he IS pretty efficient at getting the ball out quick, and is tough to sack due to the quick releases...and doesn't force a lot of balls downfield
They do not have any "scary" wideouts....Geronimo "Chief" Allison, #8, is their most dangerous threat - and he isn't "all that". #86 is a big physical guy (kinda built like Allen Robinson)....and they do push they ball downfield to him on occasion.
Josh Ferguson (who has seemingly been on the roster for 11 years) is their top back, but he has missed the last couple games (I'll have to check out their PC to see what his status is for Saturday, I understand "21" has spoken with Cubit, and he is expected to be forthcoming with the injury report
)
If Ferguson doesn't go they have a FR RB who does a lot of the same things....runs the occasional draw, and gets involved as a check down in their passing game.
What could be scary about this offense:
Lunt (the QB) can be effective when given time. He can be very frustrating (ala the traditional Northwestern QBs over the years)....in that the pass rush guys can get frustrated trying to get to him before he delivers the ball.
Over the years, PSU has approached these types of teams by rushing 4, dropping 7 (or sometimes 8), keeping the play in front of them, and forcing the opposition to execute 7,8,9 plays in order to mount a scoring drive. This has generally been successful for PSU when they had a trio of talented LBers (Connor, Lee, Puz, Bowman, Mauti, Hodges etc) and a fairly pedestrian secondary.
I would hope PSU DOES NOT employ this same scheme on Saturday.
My concern would be that PSU does not have their typical deep, quick, athletic LBer corps, and Lunt could string together a lot of completions and allow Illinois to chew up the game clock, and wear down our defensive front. Given the amount of substitutions we see in a normal game, that would lead to a lot of "2nd team front" time for our defense, and also open up more running lanes against that 2nd team unit (when Illinois does choose to run)
What I WOULD hope PSU does on defense:
Play a lot of nickel (probably subbing out Reeder) to get more speed on the field.
Blitz a lot - not with the expectation of getting a lot of sacks, but to make Lunt hurry and get uncomfortable in the pocket (he looses accuracy when hurried. For a guy who dinks and dunks, his completion percentage is a fairly pedestrian "high 50s")
A lot of blitzes with Cabinda up the middle, Bell from the edge, and corners/nickles off of the short side.
I would like to see the PSU D be aggressive early, and not let Lunt get comfortable, and not let Illinois control the TOP. I think our athleticism in the back 7 matches up well enough that we can play a lot of man, without worrying too much about being beaten one-on-one.
If I am Illinois, I am hoping to control the clock, control the field position, and force the PSU O to drive long fields. If I (Illinois) can do that, and if the PSU offense sputters early, there is the very real chance to get this game into the late 3rd Q with PSU only putting up 10 points or so....which would leave Illinois in prime position to pull the upset.
SPECIAL TEAMS:
Overall, from what I can see this is a pretty pedestrian unit. Their punter may be the 2nd worst in the league (though I haven't looked at all the B1G teams). Kicker looks a little shaky on FGs. Return teams decent (a kid named Bentley is somewhat scary as a return guy)....coverage teams "OK"
ILLINOIS DEFENSIVELY:
I would NOT expect Illinois to be nearly as uber-aggressive as Maryland was.
If they do go that route, PSU has to come out right from the opening bell and take shots downfield.
PSU cannot afford to "feel out" Illinois early and have a couple of three-and-outs.....allowing Illinois to gain the early TOP and Field Position battle (our field position difficulties have been HUGE obstacles the last two weeks)
Illinois is a "crappy" pass rush team. #91 is a decent edge rusher from the DE spot.....but no one else on the team is much of a threat. (The PSU defense is #1 in the nation in sacks....Illinois is #111)
We SHOULD (even with our OL troubles) be able to give Hackenberg time (assuming Illinois doesn't go out of character and start jamming the box and blitzing every down - ala Maryland)
If we get the "normal" Illinois defense, Hackenberg has to be accurate early, and take advantage of his opportunities to set up and deliver the ball downfield....the Illinois secondary likes to play zone, and keep the ball in front of them. They are a very experienced, veteran group, and react with good ball skills to poorly thrown passes. It will be a challenge to keep Hackenberg's streak of "no interceptions" over the last five games intact for another week.
The Illinois defense plays more aggressively against the run. Their backers (especially the inside guy, #52) play very "downhill", and will shoot gaps on first step. Both safeties will shoot down into the box as well (kind of Marcus Allen-ish)....which should set them up for play-action IF we can establish some run game early.
It will also provide - if our OL is at least competent - some opportunities for the occasional big run for Barkley.....with his skills, if the line can keep the front four from forcing him to re-direct in the backfield, he may just make some of the IU back 7 defenders look silly.
I wouldn't be surprised if their attacking run defense style makes our run game look bad at times.....but if so, we can't completely abandon it, because we should eventually be able to catch some seams and get some nice gainers.
Overall.....assuming we do get decent pass protection, which we should get (cross your fingers anyway)....Hackenberg's early accuracy and decision making will be key. AND WE HAVE TO CONVERT SOME THIRD DOWNS to prevent Illinois from winning the early TOP and Field Position battle. Stick with the running to some degree, even if we don't have a lot of success early....and as the game goes along look for big plays downfield off of first down and "run down" play action.
__________________________________________
PSU should win this one. The thing I will be watching most closely..........time of possession and field position over the first 20 minutes of the game. If we are winning or even on those measures through 20 minutes, PSU could pull out to a fairly comfortable margin in the second half.
For IU to win, I think they need to win those battles early. If they do, it could be a rather ugly game.....and IU could very well be in position to wear down and frustrate our defensive front over 60 minutes.
Key men for PSU:
Hackenberg on offense
and
The LBers and Safeties in pass coverage on defense.
Enjoy!
.
ILLINOIS OFFENSIVELY:
They are a dink-and-dunk offense (they throw the ball 60% of the time)
Their QB is a typical B12 type....sit back in the shotgun and distribute out of the short passing game.
He is NOT a runner....but he IS pretty efficient at getting the ball out quick, and is tough to sack due to the quick releases...and doesn't force a lot of balls downfield
They do not have any "scary" wideouts....Geronimo "Chief" Allison, #8, is their most dangerous threat - and he isn't "all that". #86 is a big physical guy (kinda built like Allen Robinson)....and they do push they ball downfield to him on occasion.
Josh Ferguson (who has seemingly been on the roster for 11 years) is their top back, but he has missed the last couple games (I'll have to check out their PC to see what his status is for Saturday, I understand "21" has spoken with Cubit, and he is expected to be forthcoming with the injury report
)If Ferguson doesn't go they have a FR RB who does a lot of the same things....runs the occasional draw, and gets involved as a check down in their passing game.
What could be scary about this offense:
Lunt (the QB) can be effective when given time. He can be very frustrating (ala the traditional Northwestern QBs over the years)....in that the pass rush guys can get frustrated trying to get to him before he delivers the ball.
Over the years, PSU has approached these types of teams by rushing 4, dropping 7 (or sometimes 8), keeping the play in front of them, and forcing the opposition to execute 7,8,9 plays in order to mount a scoring drive. This has generally been successful for PSU when they had a trio of talented LBers (Connor, Lee, Puz, Bowman, Mauti, Hodges etc) and a fairly pedestrian secondary.
I would hope PSU DOES NOT employ this same scheme on Saturday.
My concern would be that PSU does not have their typical deep, quick, athletic LBer corps, and Lunt could string together a lot of completions and allow Illinois to chew up the game clock, and wear down our defensive front. Given the amount of substitutions we see in a normal game, that would lead to a lot of "2nd team front" time for our defense, and also open up more running lanes against that 2nd team unit (when Illinois does choose to run)
What I WOULD hope PSU does on defense:
Play a lot of nickel (probably subbing out Reeder) to get more speed on the field.
Blitz a lot - not with the expectation of getting a lot of sacks, but to make Lunt hurry and get uncomfortable in the pocket (he looses accuracy when hurried. For a guy who dinks and dunks, his completion percentage is a fairly pedestrian "high 50s")
A lot of blitzes with Cabinda up the middle, Bell from the edge, and corners/nickles off of the short side.
I would like to see the PSU D be aggressive early, and not let Lunt get comfortable, and not let Illinois control the TOP. I think our athleticism in the back 7 matches up well enough that we can play a lot of man, without worrying too much about being beaten one-on-one.
If I am Illinois, I am hoping to control the clock, control the field position, and force the PSU O to drive long fields. If I (Illinois) can do that, and if the PSU offense sputters early, there is the very real chance to get this game into the late 3rd Q with PSU only putting up 10 points or so....which would leave Illinois in prime position to pull the upset.
SPECIAL TEAMS:
Overall, from what I can see this is a pretty pedestrian unit. Their punter may be the 2nd worst in the league (though I haven't looked at all the B1G teams). Kicker looks a little shaky on FGs. Return teams decent (a kid named Bentley is somewhat scary as a return guy)....coverage teams "OK"
ILLINOIS DEFENSIVELY:
I would NOT expect Illinois to be nearly as uber-aggressive as Maryland was.
If they do go that route, PSU has to come out right from the opening bell and take shots downfield.
PSU cannot afford to "feel out" Illinois early and have a couple of three-and-outs.....allowing Illinois to gain the early TOP and Field Position battle (our field position difficulties have been HUGE obstacles the last two weeks)
Illinois is a "crappy" pass rush team. #91 is a decent edge rusher from the DE spot.....but no one else on the team is much of a threat. (The PSU defense is #1 in the nation in sacks....Illinois is #111)
We SHOULD (even with our OL troubles) be able to give Hackenberg time (assuming Illinois doesn't go out of character and start jamming the box and blitzing every down - ala Maryland)
If we get the "normal" Illinois defense, Hackenberg has to be accurate early, and take advantage of his opportunities to set up and deliver the ball downfield....the Illinois secondary likes to play zone, and keep the ball in front of them. They are a very experienced, veteran group, and react with good ball skills to poorly thrown passes. It will be a challenge to keep Hackenberg's streak of "no interceptions" over the last five games intact for another week.
The Illinois defense plays more aggressively against the run. Their backers (especially the inside guy, #52) play very "downhill", and will shoot gaps on first step. Both safeties will shoot down into the box as well (kind of Marcus Allen-ish)....which should set them up for play-action IF we can establish some run game early.
It will also provide - if our OL is at least competent - some opportunities for the occasional big run for Barkley.....with his skills, if the line can keep the front four from forcing him to re-direct in the backfield, he may just make some of the IU back 7 defenders look silly.
I wouldn't be surprised if their attacking run defense style makes our run game look bad at times.....but if so, we can't completely abandon it, because we should eventually be able to catch some seams and get some nice gainers.
Overall.....assuming we do get decent pass protection, which we should get (cross your fingers anyway)....Hackenberg's early accuracy and decision making will be key. AND WE HAVE TO CONVERT SOME THIRD DOWNS to prevent Illinois from winning the early TOP and Field Position battle. Stick with the running to some degree, even if we don't have a lot of success early....and as the game goes along look for big plays downfield off of first down and "run down" play action.
__________________________________________
PSU should win this one. The thing I will be watching most closely..........time of possession and field position over the first 20 minutes of the game. If we are winning or even on those measures through 20 minutes, PSU could pull out to a fairly comfortable margin in the second half.
For IU to win, I think they need to win those battles early. If they do, it could be a rather ugly game.....and IU could very well be in position to wear down and frustrate our defensive front over 60 minutes.
Key men for PSU:
Hackenberg on offense
and
The LBers and Safeties in pass coverage on defense.
Enjoy!
.
