It’s over.
Penn State’s 2020 season came to a close on Dec. 19 with a dominating, 56-21 win against Illinois during a Big Ten “Champions Week” in which only eight of the conference’s 14 programs participated.
Within a few hours after the game, the program announced it would not participate in a bowl game, declining an invitation even if one were to come and putting its season to rest at 4-5.
More than two weeks have passed since then, the Nittany Lions finally permitted to return to see their families and the calendar flipping to the new year. Even within that loosely defined “break” for the program, plenty has already transpired and figures to continue to take place in the coming weeks as a potential Jan. 19 return to campus for the spring semester nears.
So where does that leave the program?
We recently checked in on the Nittany Lions to get a lay of the land as the program turns the page and looks toward the start of the 2021 offseason:
1) Comings…
We already understood that Penn State would be active in the NCAA transfer market given the comments of Director of Player Personnel, Andy Frank, as well as those of cornerbacks coach Terry Smith and tight ends assistant Tyler Bowen, back on the Early Signing Day on Dec. 15.
That has already come to fruition for the Nittany Lions in the form of Baylor senior running back John Lovett, who made his transfer announcement on Dec. 21, as well as second-year South Carolina defensive back Johnny Dixon, Duke defensive tackle Derrick Tangelo, and Temple defensive end Arnold Ebiketie on Dec. 28, 29, and 31, respectively.
Just a couple of notes to pass along here among the guys who’ve already announced their transfers before we get into what’s left.
The first piece of news here is a corollary to Lovett’s addition in that Noah Cain is expected back and healthy for next season. So, should the Nittany Lions’ sophomore be able to return to form, he will certainly be expected to emerge as the top option at running back on the depth chart. With that in mind, then, Lovett becomes an important piece of the depth picture at the position. You’ll have Cain as the primary, with Lovett and Devyn Ford returning as two experienced backs, and Keyvone Lee and Caziah Holmes as the two rising sophomores who showed glimpses of their potential this season. That picture will have to sort itself out and we won’t venture to take a crack at how it will look here, but that’s the color palate Ja’Juan Seider will have to work with next season as things stand presently. After a year in which Penn State quickly found itself with only two healthy options at the position, with a kid Penn State already had a relationship with from his high school days, it was a worthy addition.
One other note of interest among this group is for Tangelo, who we understand is being viewed as a three-technique DT. If he falls into that role as expected, that frees up the opportunity to shift P.J. Mustipher back to his more natural nose position from the three that he appeared at in an overwhelming majority of his snaps this season. Hakeem Beamon and D’Von Ellies would appear to be the other guys vying for that starting three-tech spot opposite Mustipher.
2) … and goings
So far Penn State has seen Pat Freiermuth and Jayson Oweh leave early for the NFL, fifth-year seniors Shane Simmons, Will Fries, and Shaka Toney announce they’re moving on, Antonio Shelton announce his look at the transfer portal, redshirt sophomore Judge Culpepper hit the portal, and Tariq Castro-Fields announced Jan. 2 that he would return for his fifth year.
Others who have yet to make an official announcement are Michal Menet (who accepted a Senior Bowl invitation), Jaquan Brisker (the same), and Lamont Wade (who was invited to the Shrine Bowl, which has since been canceled due to COVID-19).
The biggest name yet to make an announcement, of course, is junior receiver Jahan Dotson following his third-team All-Big Ten season in 2020. Another name that has been discussed as having the possibility of testing the NFL waters is rising redshirt junior left tackle, Rasheed Walker. Our anticipation, at present, is that both will be back for Penn State’s 2021 season.
On the other hand, we don’t expect Donovan Johnson to be back for a fifth year after suffering through injuries most of his Penn State career. Other names to monitor are at receiver as Cam Sullivan-Brown is coming off another year plagued by injury, despite coming into the season as a likely starter, and T.J. Jones saw limited action as well in his second year in the program, targeted just twice in seven games and finishing without a reception, and we'll touch on Daniel George here in a bit.
3) What’s left?
Penn State is still in the market for additions to the roster this offseason, both via the recruiting ranks as well as the transfer portal.
Specifically, the priorities are at safety and defensive end, with the end position preferably coming out of the high school ranks.
There has been some chatter about two transfer possibilities, in particular, that are worth addressing here. Clemson quarterback Taisun Phommachanh and Illinois second-team All-Big Ten selection Owen Carney Jr. have both been noted as potential targets for the Nittany Lions, with mutual interest.
That said, it is our understanding, at present, that both would be considered unlikely additions.
For Phommachanh, quarterback transfers, in particular, are delicate with established returning presences already in the room. Unless Phommachanh is a no-brainer guarantee to become the starter in 2021 or the immediate back-up, at worst, the move immediately jeopardizes the rest of the room and likely sends at least the starter or backup into the portal. Our understanding is that Phommachanh has produced a limited amount of work that would create that type of certainty for Penn State to want to make that move.
Carney, meanwhile, isn’t an identical situation, but he also did not produce the type of performance that has left Penn State necessarily knocking down the door for his services. Graded out at 56.4 overall, with a highlight pass-rush grade of 69.8 by PFF coming off a season in which he finished with five sacks distributed over two games (three against Purdue and two at Nebraska), Carney is not the priority, as we understand it, Penn State instead placing its preference on a younger player with Adisa Isaac and Ebiketie seemingly in line to be the Nittany Lions’ starters next season.
We’re leaving the window open for both players here, but we’d be more surprised than not if either land at Penn State based on our current understanding of their situations.
4) Movement
A few interesting pieces of personnel news to consider here heading into the offseason.
Let’s start at linebacker, where the opt-out of Micah Parsons necessitated some last-minute changes that Penn State will finally have the luxury of time to get a plan in place within the group.
The first move is for rising senior Jesse Luketa from the Will back to the Mike. We had bandied about the notion that Luketa could make the switch to end for the 2021 season, but it appears now that he’ll drop some of his weight and return to the Mike so that Brandon Smith can make the move from Sam over to Will. With Smith coming on and playing his best football in the latter half of the season, he has to stay on the field, and with his experience now built up, he can make that move to the Will more confidently. Meanwhile, you’ll likely see Lance Dixon and Curtis Jacobs battling it out for the Sam.
Other movements on the table as possibilities:
- It will depend on how the transfer market works out at safety in the coming weeks, but Penn State could see Keaton Ellis shift from corner to safety. That move is more of a challenge to make though given how thin they were at corner this season due to injuries, but with the Dixon transfer in, and the need at safety, that might become a solution to some of Penn State's personnel needs there.
- Daniel George could also be an option at safety, should he be willing to consider and make the move. With size, strength, and speed, and given Penn State’s improving situation at receiver, the change could create an opportunity for George to make a bigger impact.
Penn State’s 2020 season came to a close on Dec. 19 with a dominating, 56-21 win against Illinois during a Big Ten “Champions Week” in which only eight of the conference’s 14 programs participated.
Within a few hours after the game, the program announced it would not participate in a bowl game, declining an invitation even if one were to come and putting its season to rest at 4-5.
More than two weeks have passed since then, the Nittany Lions finally permitted to return to see their families and the calendar flipping to the new year. Even within that loosely defined “break” for the program, plenty has already transpired and figures to continue to take place in the coming weeks as a potential Jan. 19 return to campus for the spring semester nears.
So where does that leave the program?
We recently checked in on the Nittany Lions to get a lay of the land as the program turns the page and looks toward the start of the 2021 offseason:
1) Comings…
We already understood that Penn State would be active in the NCAA transfer market given the comments of Director of Player Personnel, Andy Frank, as well as those of cornerbacks coach Terry Smith and tight ends assistant Tyler Bowen, back on the Early Signing Day on Dec. 15.
That has already come to fruition for the Nittany Lions in the form of Baylor senior running back John Lovett, who made his transfer announcement on Dec. 21, as well as second-year South Carolina defensive back Johnny Dixon, Duke defensive tackle Derrick Tangelo, and Temple defensive end Arnold Ebiketie on Dec. 28, 29, and 31, respectively.
Just a couple of notes to pass along here among the guys who’ve already announced their transfers before we get into what’s left.
The first piece of news here is a corollary to Lovett’s addition in that Noah Cain is expected back and healthy for next season. So, should the Nittany Lions’ sophomore be able to return to form, he will certainly be expected to emerge as the top option at running back on the depth chart. With that in mind, then, Lovett becomes an important piece of the depth picture at the position. You’ll have Cain as the primary, with Lovett and Devyn Ford returning as two experienced backs, and Keyvone Lee and Caziah Holmes as the two rising sophomores who showed glimpses of their potential this season. That picture will have to sort itself out and we won’t venture to take a crack at how it will look here, but that’s the color palate Ja’Juan Seider will have to work with next season as things stand presently. After a year in which Penn State quickly found itself with only two healthy options at the position, with a kid Penn State already had a relationship with from his high school days, it was a worthy addition.
One other note of interest among this group is for Tangelo, who we understand is being viewed as a three-technique DT. If he falls into that role as expected, that frees up the opportunity to shift P.J. Mustipher back to his more natural nose position from the three that he appeared at in an overwhelming majority of his snaps this season. Hakeem Beamon and D’Von Ellies would appear to be the other guys vying for that starting three-tech spot opposite Mustipher.
2) … and goings
So far Penn State has seen Pat Freiermuth and Jayson Oweh leave early for the NFL, fifth-year seniors Shane Simmons, Will Fries, and Shaka Toney announce they’re moving on, Antonio Shelton announce his look at the transfer portal, redshirt sophomore Judge Culpepper hit the portal, and Tariq Castro-Fields announced Jan. 2 that he would return for his fifth year.
Others who have yet to make an official announcement are Michal Menet (who accepted a Senior Bowl invitation), Jaquan Brisker (the same), and Lamont Wade (who was invited to the Shrine Bowl, which has since been canceled due to COVID-19).
The biggest name yet to make an announcement, of course, is junior receiver Jahan Dotson following his third-team All-Big Ten season in 2020. Another name that has been discussed as having the possibility of testing the NFL waters is rising redshirt junior left tackle, Rasheed Walker. Our anticipation, at present, is that both will be back for Penn State’s 2021 season.
On the other hand, we don’t expect Donovan Johnson to be back for a fifth year after suffering through injuries most of his Penn State career. Other names to monitor are at receiver as Cam Sullivan-Brown is coming off another year plagued by injury, despite coming into the season as a likely starter, and T.J. Jones saw limited action as well in his second year in the program, targeted just twice in seven games and finishing without a reception, and we'll touch on Daniel George here in a bit.
3) What’s left?
Penn State is still in the market for additions to the roster this offseason, both via the recruiting ranks as well as the transfer portal.
Specifically, the priorities are at safety and defensive end, with the end position preferably coming out of the high school ranks.
There has been some chatter about two transfer possibilities, in particular, that are worth addressing here. Clemson quarterback Taisun Phommachanh and Illinois second-team All-Big Ten selection Owen Carney Jr. have both been noted as potential targets for the Nittany Lions, with mutual interest.
That said, it is our understanding, at present, that both would be considered unlikely additions.
For Phommachanh, quarterback transfers, in particular, are delicate with established returning presences already in the room. Unless Phommachanh is a no-brainer guarantee to become the starter in 2021 or the immediate back-up, at worst, the move immediately jeopardizes the rest of the room and likely sends at least the starter or backup into the portal. Our understanding is that Phommachanh has produced a limited amount of work that would create that type of certainty for Penn State to want to make that move.
Carney, meanwhile, isn’t an identical situation, but he also did not produce the type of performance that has left Penn State necessarily knocking down the door for his services. Graded out at 56.4 overall, with a highlight pass-rush grade of 69.8 by PFF coming off a season in which he finished with five sacks distributed over two games (three against Purdue and two at Nebraska), Carney is not the priority, as we understand it, Penn State instead placing its preference on a younger player with Adisa Isaac and Ebiketie seemingly in line to be the Nittany Lions’ starters next season.
We’re leaving the window open for both players here, but we’d be more surprised than not if either land at Penn State based on our current understanding of their situations.
4) Movement
A few interesting pieces of personnel news to consider here heading into the offseason.
Let’s start at linebacker, where the opt-out of Micah Parsons necessitated some last-minute changes that Penn State will finally have the luxury of time to get a plan in place within the group.
The first move is for rising senior Jesse Luketa from the Will back to the Mike. We had bandied about the notion that Luketa could make the switch to end for the 2021 season, but it appears now that he’ll drop some of his weight and return to the Mike so that Brandon Smith can make the move from Sam over to Will. With Smith coming on and playing his best football in the latter half of the season, he has to stay on the field, and with his experience now built up, he can make that move to the Will more confidently. Meanwhile, you’ll likely see Lance Dixon and Curtis Jacobs battling it out for the Sam.
Other movements on the table as possibilities:
- It will depend on how the transfer market works out at safety in the coming weeks, but Penn State could see Keaton Ellis shift from corner to safety. That move is more of a challenge to make though given how thin they were at corner this season due to injuries, but with the Dixon transfer in, and the need at safety, that might become a solution to some of Penn State's personnel needs there.
- Daniel George could also be an option at safety, should he be willing to consider and make the move. With size, strength, and speed, and given Penn State’s improving situation at receiver, the change could create an opportunity for George to make a bigger impact.
