Is PSU currently an NCAA underdog - FRL discussion

[dunkej01]

I think the boys in blue and white are underdogs. All the rankings say that. All the talking heads say that tO$U is favored.

not sure why that is wrong and a PSU message board thing....which Im assuming is a BWI thing since Im unaware of another PSU board with a higher level of PSU traffic.

EDIT: although TBarr creates his own traffic on the mat

What says you folks?

https://www.flowrestling.org/articles/6075252-wno-duals-schedule-released

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Slight underdog but that changes if Lee and Sheed stay healthy and wrestle the way they can. Season odds will ebb and flow

 

[Lyons212]

Ohio State is the favorite right now based upon the various rankings. Both teams have questions at several weight classes, that is, will the individual finish as high as the ranking?

Ohio State - 125, 133, 141, 149, 157
Penn State - 165, 174, 197, 285 along with no ranked wrestler at 125, 133 and 141.

Lot of wrestling to go, lot of tough matches, injuries and a season of cutting can also be a factor.

I like our guys chances, PSU under Cael has either wrestled to or exceeded their seeds overall at NCAA's. Whoever wins it is going to earn it.

 

[James P. Whitters III]

It will be very FUN to see if the relatively unknown over achievers from Happy Valley can shock the world and take down the battle proven fighting tanners. I'm most interested if a staller like Zain,a lucky senior citizen like Hall,a one hit wonder like Cenzo, and noodle arm like Bo can even compete at this level.

It is really easy to understand the expectation for PSU to under achieve as the last several years have taught us Cael has no idea how to get guys ready to wrestle come March- I think that probably explains his personal failures as a wrestler as well.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

I think the boys in blue and white are underdogs. All the rankings say that. All the talking heads say that tO$U is favored.

not sure why that is wrong and a PSU message board thing....which Im assuming is a BWI thing since Im unaware of another PSU board with a higher level of PSU traffic.

EDIT: although TBarr creates his own traffic on the mat

What says you folks?

https://www.flowrestling.org/articles/6075252-wno-duals-schedule-released

Haven’t heard it yet, but that also shows the difference between rankings and predictions. They are currently ranked higher as a team - no disputing that. If we aren’t underdogs, then it is incumbent upon critics of our purported underdog status to determine which of the Buckeye’s higher rankings are soft. I have an opinion as to that (sure to piss off part-time visitors to isolated Ohio hunting cabins, for example), but I’d like to hear from them.

 

[dunkej01]

Haven’t heard it yet, but that also shows the difference between rankings and predictions. They are currently ranked higher as a team - no disputing that. If we aren’t underdogs, then it is incumbent upon critics of our purported underdog status to determine which of the Buckeye’s higher rankings are soft. I have an opinion as to that (sure to piss off part-time visitors to isolated Ohio hunting cabins, for example), but I’d like to hear from them.

Counter point: FRL talks about NN and kind of sort of agrees with many board posters about his weight gain and lack of leg attacks.

 

[manatree]

I think a simple argument could be made that Penn State is an underdog in a dual with OSU. Two teams, one's the favorite and the other is the underdog.

However, when you are talking about a multiple teamn event like the NCAA, or even the BigTen tourney the term underdog takes on a whole new meaning. To me, in order for a team to be considered to be an underdog to win the NCAAs they have to at least be outside of the top five. In a multi-team/competitor event, just because you aren't the favorite doesn't make you an underdog. You have a favorite, a handful of contenders, some underdogs, some long shots and then your impossible dreamers.

Right now, I see no argument that could convince me that we are outside of the top five. You can argue that we are not the favorite, but to say that we are not a contender is asinine.

 

[RoarLions1]

InterMat Rankings this morning calculate out as follows, top-10 are listed, and no Bonus Points are included;

Row Labels Sum of Pts
Ohio State 134
Penn State 103.5
North Carolina State 67.5
Michigan 67.5
Iowa 59.5
Oklahoma State 56
Missouri 53.5
Lehigh 46
Arizona State 43
Virginia Tech 38

 

[RoarLions1]

...and at Big Ten's, here's where the current InterMat Rankings place the finishers, again no Bonus Points considered...top-9 listed;

Row Labels Sum of Pts
Ohio State 159
Penn State 123.5
Michigan 105
Iowa 80.5
Minnesota 69
Rutgers 58.5
Nebraska 55
Northwestern 43.5
Illinois 34

 

[RoarLions1]

Having posted my spreadsheet info, I will add the following, as stated for decades...

The matches are wrestled for a reason. I personally really like our chances, more at the NCAA Tournament than at Big Ten's, simply because of the compression factor for B1G's.

The rankings will change often between now and March, and even if they don't, are not reflective of how wrestlers fare in the post-season. So many variables, so many factors, so many lots of things, that predicting an outcome that will hold up is fruitless. This from a guy that provides some level of stats and data for you!! Best I can hope for is good health for all the wrestlers, and for the Penn State guys to wrestle to their capability.

 

[pish69]

Isn't this the norm? The last 2 yrs everyone picked Okie State to win it all, this year it's tOSU. What else is new?

Wonder where we'll be ranked after Lee beats McKenna and Rasheed cradles up Moore in early Feb?

 

[dunkej01]

30 points below the top rung which is essentially a 1st place champ with bigly bonus. Further we only have 7 guys ranked compared to tO$U with 10 ranked......seems like an underdog to me.

 

[El-Jefe]

Every year, Bonus Points outperforms its rank.

 

[greenmanRD]

I really don't see us as an underdog, even with the rankings as they are. These rankings don't even include Nick Lee, who is certainly a threat to outscore Joey McKenna at this point. Ohio State has a great team, and they will possibly give us our most difficult challenge under Cael to a team title. However, Zain and Nolf just by themselves can account for 55 points or more. That doesn't even include three other finalists, with some bonus, which accounts for another 60 or so points. That leaves us at 115 before Nevills, who will likely AA and could end as high as 3rd, Nick Lee who will win some matches by bonus, and Shakur Rasheed, who will also win some matches by bonus. In my eyes, we have a really good chance to have 135+ points even with only two champs. The Buckeyes may beat that, but it's a hell of a task to score that much.

 

[purescurve]

I really don't see us as an underdog, even with the rankings as they are. These rankings don't even include Nick Lee, who is certainly a threat to outscore Joey McKenna at this point. Ohio State has a great team, and they will possibly give us our most difficult challenge under Cael to a team title. However, Zain and Nolf just by themselves can account for 55 points or more. That doesn't even include three other finalists, with some bonus, which accounts for another 60 or so points. That leaves us at 115 before Nevills, who will likely AA and could end as high as 3rd, Nick Lee who will win some matches by bonus, and Shakur Rasheed, who will also win some matches by bonus. In my eyes, we have a really good chance to have 135+ points even with only two champs. The Buckeyes may beat that, but it's a hell of a task to score that much.

I look for Rasheed to be in the finals in both tournaments.

 

[NoVa Lion]

I look for Rasheed to be in the finals in both tournaments.

I would call that a bit overly optimistic. However, that doesn't mean that he can't accomplish that. Would like to see him go Friday night against Beazley to see what happens.

 

[nitlion6]

6 out of 7 and at some point of each of those 6 the Lions were perceived as the dog. It seems people make the same mistake every year. They forget that what is important is the fight in that dog.

 

[diggerpup]

PSU can definitely make the case for 135+ at NCAAs.

125 - 0
133 - 1
141 - 6 (could get on a roll)
149 - 27
157 - 27
165 - 18
174 - 18 (conservative)
184 - 22
197 - 8 (see 141)
285 - 8 (conservative)

= 135

How often in history have two squads scored over 135 points ?

 

[greenmanRD]

I look for Rasheed to be in the finals in both tournaments.

Maybe Rasheed can do that, and I hope he can. I am going to wait for him against Beazley before making a determination. The good news is 197 is wide open, and I expect that bracket to have a lot of chaos this year.

 

[dunkej01]

Maybe Rasheed can do that, and I hope he can. I am going to wait for him against Beazley before making a determination. The good news is 197 is wide open, and I expect that bracket to have a lot of chaos this year.

probably gonna hear on this shortly

 

[dunkej01]

healthy enough to photobomb...and maybe roll?

 

[nitlion6]

PSU can definitely make the case for 135+ at NCAAs.

125 - 0
133 - 1
141 - 6 (could get on a roll)
149 - 27
157 - 27
165 - 18
174 - 18 (conservative)
184 - 22
197 - 8 (see 141)
285 - 8 (conservative)

= 135

How often in history have two squads scored over 135 points ?

135 is conservative.

 

[greenmanRD]

probably gonna hear on this shortly

My guess is we'll see Cassar or Rasheed or McCutcheon on the release this week.

 

[diggerpup]

135 is conservative.

Exactly. That’s why I posted 135+ ...

Withstanding injuries, I’ll say 135 is PSU’s point floor at NCAAs.

 

[dunkej01]

the champ speaks

 

[RoarLions1]

I look for Rasheed to be in the finals in both tournaments.

I would call that a bit overly optimistic. However, that doesn't mean that he can't accomplish that. Would like to see him go Friday night against Beazley to see what happens.

Maybe Rasheed can do that, and I hope he can. I am going to wait for him against Beazley before making a determination. The good news is 197 is wide open, and I expect that bracket to have a lot of chaos this year.

Geez guys...Cassar?? Let the process unfold...

 

[ClarkstonMark]

I think a simple argument could be made that Penn State is an underdog in a dual with OSU. Two teams, one's the favorite and the other is the underdog.

However, when you are talking about a multiple teamn event like the NCAA, or even the BigTen tourney the term underdog takes on a whole new meaning. To me, in order for a team to be considered to be an underdog to win the NCAAs they have to at least be outside of the top five. In a multi-team/competitor event, just because you aren't the favorite doesn't make you an underdog. You have a favorite, a handful of contenders, some underdogs, some long shots and then your impossible dreamers.

Right now, I see no argument that could convince me that we are outside of the top five. You can argue that we are not the favorite, but to say that we are not a contender is asinine.

I disagree OSU is favorite in a dual, for the same reason they are not favorite at NCAA's - PSU will out-bonus OSU, and we are favored in 5 matches. That said, OSU could win the dual with an upset, and could win the NCAA's. The possibility will make for a great dual and a great NCAA's.

 

[nitlion6]

the champ speaks

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I really like Snyder as an athlete that always represents our country and sport with great class, but his math is a tad weak. Right now Ohio State, Penn State, Oklahoma State and Iowa are tied at 0.0 points.

 

[diggerpup]

Big Tens are a completely different animal.

I would be surprised if the Buckeyes did not win BIGs.

At BIGs, it’s not crazy to see tOSU with 9 in the semis and 7 in the finals.

Then for NCAA seeding, we can all cheer for the Bucks to go 1-6 in the finals.

 

[tikk10]

I really like Snyder as an athlete that always represents our country and sport with great class, but his math is a tad weak. Right now Ohio State, Penn State, Oklahoma State and Iowa are tied at 0.0 points.

True that. But I'll mention anyway that his point--I think--is that the rankings are giving tOSU too much credit.

 

[pish69]

Geez guys...Cassar?? Let the process unfold...

Of course it will unfold, but after the tournament Rasheed just had, I'm sure you can understand the optimism. Cassar hasn't pinned a guy all year (iirc), Rasheed just pinned 3 ranked guys in under a minute

 

[nitlion6]

True that. But I'll mention anyway that his point--I think--is that the rankings are giving tOSU too much credit.

I know. He is just promoting wrestling and the Bucknuts. I don't Twitter so I can't rib back there. I can here.

Damn man, I just reread his tweet. You are right. He isn't boasting.

Shame on me. I need to tread more lightly around Cap America.

 

[tomsc]

I disagree OSU is favorite in a dual, for the same reason they are not favorite at NCAA's - PSU will out-bonus OSU, and we are favored in 5 matches. That said, OSU could win the dual with an upset, and could win the NCAA's. The possibility will make for a great dual and a great NCAA's.

I'm not so sure that PSU will out-bonus tOSU. I would like to think so, and we may. But the likely bonus matches are: PSU--149, 157 tOSU--125, Hwt Could work out pretty close in bonus points.

 

[nitlion6]

I'm not so sure that PSU will out-bonus tOSU. I would like to think so, and we may. But the likely bonus matches are: PSU--149, 157 tOSU--125, Hwt Could work out pretty close in bonus points.

Don't sell Joseph short.

 

[PSUcup1]

True that. But I'll mention anyway that his point--I think--is that the rankings are giving tOSU too much credit.

i actually dont think that is his point ... I think his point is that the rankings show Ohio State is that much better than everyone else & they have NOT come back down to earth

 

[tomsc]

Don't sell Joseph short.

I agree, I almost put that down. But I was looking at highly likely bonus. Bo has pinned MyMar before, but I wouldn't bet on it again--although with Bo, you never know!

 

[diggerpup]

LMFAO.

CP @ 1:03 - re: Guy automatically choosing bottom.


“Who was it that took bottom vs Zain ? Heil ? And he got pinned !

Look - I know there are not a lot of good options with Zain. But you know the really bad option. You know that there is a “Limb-Removal Option” ....

....you watch NCAAs, and you see guys make the quarters and semis; but if they’re getting their arms ripped off and pinned, you know chances are it could happen to you too.”

 

[El-Jefe]

Don't sell Joseph short.

Or Bo.

Or Hall, at least in the first couple rounds.

 

[tikk10]

i actually dont think that is his point ... I think his point is that the rankings show Ohio State is that much better than everyone else & they have NOT come back down to earth

I should've gone and looked at the context, the tweet he was responding to.

He's criticizing Flo's characterizing Ohio State's rankings as "coming back down to earth," which, if you look at Flo's last team ranking, he's right. tOSU went from 137.5 to 134. Penn State went from 112-108. Par for the course--a nominal drop for both and Flo hypes it as something else entirely.

 

[lockhavenlion3]

Big Tens are a completely different animal.

I would be surprised if the Buckeyes did not win BIGs.

At BIGs, it’s not crazy to see tOSU with 9 in the semis and 7 in the finals.

Then for NCAA seeding, we can all cheer for the Bucks to go 1-6 in the finals.

fully agree bts are probably o$u's. nationals are a different animal. much more help along the way.