It's time! My wacky look at Week 1 CFB point spreads

[TenerHallTerror]

this is not gambling advice. these are just point spreads that jump out to me as a little weird.

PSU -23.5 vs App State . . . should be a good game, maybe App State covers, maybe they don't. I just think 23.5 is a weird weird number. Where I have to do math in my head to figure out if 41-17 covers the spread or not.

OSU -37 vs OSU . . . omg they are playing themselves! MIND BLOWN! Seriously, what will the buckeyes do with Urban Meyer likely in the tunnel right on the edge of field still sending in plays with a jacked up head set? btw, the Beavers were 1-11 last season, but only lost by more than 37 points ONCE.

Rutgers -16.5 vs Texas State . . . Rutgers a 2 TD+ favorite. that just cracks me up.

ND -1 vs MI . . . so MI opened up as #14 and a 1-1/2 point favorite over #12 ND. Line shifts to ND -1. you know what to do

Navy -14 1/2 @ Hawaii . . . Navy is good and should be pumped up to honor McCain. usually that trip to Hawaii is an energy drainer, but Hawaii hasn't covered at home as well as they used to. Plus, the won the LLWS. Sports gods will balance.

 

[royboy]

Hawaii opened with a 43-34 upset over Colorado State (at CSU). Their QB threw for over 400 yards. Rainbow Warriors seem like a good choice to cover.

 

[PSU87]

this is not gambling advice. these are just point spreads that jump out to me as a little weird.

PSU -23.5 vs App State . . . should be a good game, maybe App State covers, maybe they don't. I just think 23.5 is a weird weird number. Where I have to do math in my head to figure out if 41-17 covers the spread or not.

OSU -37 vs OSU . . . omg they are playing themselves! MIND BLOWN! Seriously, what will the buckeyes do with Urban Meyer likely in the tunnel right on the edge of field still sending in plays with a jacked up head set? btw, the Beavers were 1-11 last season, but only lost by more than 37 points ONCE.

Rutgers -16.5 vs Texas State . . . Rutgers a 2 TD+ favorite. that just cracks me up.

ND -1 vs MI . . . so MI opened up as #14 and a 1-1/2 point favorite over #12 ND. Line shifts to ND -1. you know what to do

Navy -14 1/2 @ Hawaii . . . Navy is good and should be pumped up to honor McCain. usually that trip to Hawaii is an energy drainer, but Hawaii hasn't covered at home as well as they used to. Plus, the won the LLWS. Sports gods will balance.

Maybe App St covers, maybe they don't.
That about covers it.

 

[TenerHallTerror]

Maybe App St covers, maybe they don't.
That about covers it.

I'd say bet whichever way makes you feel comfortable.

but without question, 23.5 is a dirty dirty number

 

[78SweetRevenge]

Hawaii opened with a 43-34 upset over Colorado State (at CSU). Their QB threw for over 400 yards. Rainbow Warriors seem like a good choice to cover.

Colorado State threw for 500 yards--just a crazy game. We'll see if Hawaii can stop Navy's run game.

 

[Woodpecker]

Not to look ahead but Illinois is a 16.5 point favorite over Kent State. Illinois! Think about that in relation to how many think the next 2 weeks will play out.

 

[78SweetRevenge]

Not to look ahead but Illinois is a 16.5 point favorite over Kent State. Illinois! Think about that in relation to how many think the next 2 weeks will play out.

I think that tells us exactly how bad Kent St is supposed to be this year

 

[roswelllion]

in those games I'll go with

AppSt +23.5 I see it at 14-17 point win
Buckeyes - The other OSU is terrible and theBucks show what "real football factory" can do when pissed and playing an inferior opponent
Rutgers -who is Texas ST?
Navy - Hawaii can't stop 3 option
ND - emotional bet, because I hate scUM more than ND. I root for ND against Um MSU and Pitt only
Go Lions!!!

 

[KnightSlayer]

I'd say bet whichever way makes you feel comfortable.

but without question, 23.5 is a dirty dirty number

Bovada must not have liked that number either. They bumped it to 24 and I still took Penn State. I just think this offense will continue to hum with Trace and the Oline being the key. We have highly talented kids at WR and RB. While we won't replace Gesicki's receiving skills with any of his replacements, I think they will run block better than he did. This will lead to fewer tackles for loss and a more consistent run game.

While App State may have raised their game with their move to the Sun Belt and new coach, I think there is too much to overcome this year for them to come out of the gate strong. They lost a 4 year starting QB, top WR and, they lost an OG and OT that are currently on NFL rosters. There D has a good secondary but, they lost 3 starting LBs and they are small along the Dline.

PSU 48 - App St. 13

 

[Grant Green]

th

ND -1 vs MI . . . so MI opened up as #14 and a 1-1/2 point favorite over #12 ND. Line shifts to ND -1. you know what to do
.

ND actually opened up as a 7 point favorite at the South Point and was immediately bet down to -1. Betonline opened around -1 or -1.5 - can't remember exactly. Last week I saw that UM had been bet to as much as -2 and now the line has swung back to ND.

Not sure what is so strange about the -23.5 for PSU. The line opened at 25 at the Southpoint. I thought I saw it around 27-28 online, but either way, it has been bet down.

 

[78SweetRevenge]

ND actually opened up as a 7 point favorite at the South Point and was immediately bet down to -1. Betonline opened around -1 or -1.5 - can't remember exactly. Last week I saw that UM had been bet to as much as -2 and now the line has swung back to ND.

Not sure what is so strange about the -23.5 for PSU. The line opened at 25 at the Southpoint. I thought I saw it around 27-28 online, but either way, it has been bet down.

I agree about the Penn State line...I think 21-27 range was likely
ND-Michigan is a game I'd stay completely away from

 

[LafayetteBear]

Auburn is apparently -2.5 vs. Washington in a game to be played at a "neutral" site (Benz stadium in Atlanta) Who do are you guys taking here?

 

[Howie'81]

Auburn is apparently -2.5 vs. Washington in a game to be played at a "neutral" site (Benz stadium in Atlanta) Who do are you guys taking here?

Auburn. I think Washington is overrated.

 

[Grant Green]

Auburn is apparently -2.5 vs. Washington in a game to be played at a "neutral" site (Benz stadium in Atlanta) Who do are you guys taking here?

I have those teams almost dead even, so maybe lean to UW. Auburn may be getting a little bump due to easier travel for team and fans. Since Petersen took over, UW is 2-11 straight up when they are an underdog.

 

[interrobang]

Bet the over in that Navy/Hawaii game

 

[78SweetRevenge]

Auburn. I think Washington is overrated.

Washington. I think Auburn and Washington are overrated but Auburn's more overrated

 

[TenerHallTerror]

Bet the over in that Navy/Hawaii game

I went back to check it thinking it HAD to be over 70 . . . seeing it at 62-1/2 seems like a gimme . . .

 

[TenerHallTerror]

Bovada must not have liked that number either. They bumped it to 24 and I still took Penn State. I just think this offense will continue to hum with Trace and the Oline being the key. We have highly talented kids at WR and RB. While we won't replace Gesicki's receiving skills with any of his replacements, I think they will run block better than he did. This will lead to fewer tackles for loss and a more consistent run game.

While App State may have raised their game with their move to the Sun Belt and new coach, I think there is too much to overcome this year for them to come out of the gate strong. They lost a 4 year starting QB, top WR and, they lost an OG and OT that are currently on NFL rosters. There D has a good secondary but, they lost 3 starting LBs and they are small along the Dline.

PSU 48 - App St. 13

Penn State feels like addition by subtraction . . . I think the improved O line, and McSorely motivated to win a championship, will more than compensate for the losses of Hamilton, Barkley, and Gesicki. with a strong O line, I could see Johnson, Thompkins, and Polk all going for over 700 yds this season.

 

[BUFFALO LION]

Washington. I think Auburn and Washington are overrated but Auburn's more overrated

Washington is beyond nuts for playing down there without a return game. Neutral field my a$$. SEC crowd will do everything they can to knock the PAC 12 out of the Playoffs in week 1. And if Washington gets trounced, the PAC 12 is toast.

 

[TenerHallTerror]

Washington is beyond nuts for playing down there without a return game. Neutral field my a$$. SEC crowd will do everything they can to knock the PAC 12 out of the Playoffs in week 1. And if Washington gets trounced, the PAC 12 is toast.

Pac-12 deserves no respect . . .

 

[Sunsox]

in those games I'll go with

AppSt +23.5 I see it at 14-17 point win
Buckeyes - The other OSU is terrible and theBucks show what "real football factory" can do when pissed and playing an inferior opponent
Rutgers -who is Texas ST?
Navy - Hawaii can't stop 3 option
ND - emotional bet, because I hate scUM more than ND. I root for ND against Um MSU and Pitt only
Go Lions!!!

 

[PSUFBFAN]

Auburn is apparently -2.5 vs. Washington in a game to be played at a "neutral" site (Benz stadium in Atlanta) Who do are you guys taking here?

That's a long plane ride from Seattle to Atlanta and it is always tougher on the body clock going west to east. Plus, this is essentially a home game for Auburn (100 miles from Atlanta) and this will be the third game in a row they will have played in that Benz stadium.

That will be a very tough environment for Washington to get a w.

 

[Grant Green]

Money coming in on Hawaii, as that line moved down to 11. I'm thinking a bit of an overreaction to a win over a bad CSU team. How is Hawaii going to deal with Malcolm Perry?
Hawaii switch to the run and shoot and I was surprised that they put up that many points in their first game in a new system. I would tend to bet the under based on some regression to the mean and Navy's propensity to grind clock.

 

[78SweetRevenge]

Washington is beyond nuts for playing down there without a return game. Neutral field my a$$. SEC crowd will do everything they can to knock the PAC 12 out of the Playoffs in week 1. And if Washington gets trounced, the PAC 12 is toast.

I'll give Washington a ton of credit for scheduling it. Washington needs that kind of game to have any shot at making the playoff if they lose a single Pac XII game which they likely will. That team is great but not elite IMO

 

[78SweetRevenge]

Pac-12 deserves no respect . . .

I also think this is fair lol
Outside of Stanford, USC & Washington the Pac XII is horrific. And USC and Stanford aren't exactly lighting things up. They really need UCLA and one of the Arizona schools to become good. Plus Oregon

 

[djr4rebs]

Think I read that USC is starting a true freshman this year as well. What gives?

 

[Grant Green]

I also think this is fair lol
Outside of Stanford, USC & Washington the Pac XII is horrific. And USC and Stanford aren't exactly lighting things up. They really need UCLA and one of the Arizona schools to become good. Plus Oregon

Oregon is definitely not horrific. They struggled last year when their starting QB went down, but Jim Leavitt has vastly improved their defense.
Watch out for Arizona this year. I think they can win the south.

 

[Rollin Stone]

Just for fun, this weekend I watched the PSU vs UW Fiesta bowl (quick version 35 mins) just to kinda get the FB season juices flowing.

I have to tell you I was not overly impressed wit UW at all. PSU basically kept them in the game with turnovers / short fields. It seemed we could have easily won the game by 21+ points. Interception in the end zone in the 1st qtr., Fumble in the backfield for a short field, tipped pass for another interception and that just off the top of my head.

I am sure that the "love" for them is the returning QB and RB and others. But to me they seemed like they wouldn't win either division in the BIG and maybe not finish higher than 3rd in either.

I'm not rooting for Auburn, but I wouldn't be surprised with an Auburn win. Like someone else said I also think Auburn is overrated, if I had to pick one I'd say Auburn just because of it being played in Atlanta.

 

[78SweetRevenge]

Oregon is definitely not horrific. They struggled last year when their starting QB went down, but Jim Leavitt has vastly improved their defense.
Watch out for Arizona this year. I think they can win the south.

With Tate they can make a run. Oregon isn't what it once was--that's the level they need to be at for the Pac XII to be relevant but, yes, they aren't "horrific"

 

[mcm265]

I got in at PSU -23 for all the same reasons. It's not about what App State is/isn't. Its about playing at home with an experienced SR QB and a talented OLine. Defense might be thin up front but there's talent and skill spread everywhere. Sprinkle in the home crowd will be fired up and making some noise. I don't think this will be a close game. PSU 48-14

Bovada must not have liked that number either. They bumped it to 24 and I still took Penn State. I just think this offense will continue to hum with Trace and the Oline being the key. We have highly talented kids at WR and RB. While we won't replace Gesicki's receiving skills with any of his replacements, I think they will run block better than he did. This will lead to fewer tackles for loss and a more consistent run game.

While App State may have raised their game with their move to the Sun Belt and new coach, I think there is too much to overcome this year for them to come out of the gate strong. They lost a 4 year starting QB, top WR and, they lost an OG and OT that are currently on NFL rosters. There D has a good secondary but, they lost 3 starting LBs and they are small along the Dline.

PSU 48 - App St. 13

 

[LafayetteBear]

I am sure that the "love" for them is the returning QB and RB and others. But to me they seemed like they wouldn't win either division in the BIG and maybe not finish higher than 3rd in either.

I get the B1G love on this Board. Totally understandable. But c'mon, dude. What does the B1G West have other than Wisconsin? Nebraska has sucked for quite some time. Iowa? They're good for an upset each season at Kinnick Stadium, but the Hawkeyes are not a Top 25 team.

 

[Rollin Stone]

I am actually not a BIG homer. I am just saying that after watching the Fiesta bowl again I wasn't impressed with Washington. I am sure that they would be better this year than they were last year.

As for the BIG West, people always tend to forget about the team in Evanston that has won 10+ games 3 out of the last 6 years. I realized when I typed no higher than 3rd in either division that that may be a stretch with regard to the West, but I don't think I'm smoking Crack either.

I really felt that if they played in the West that it's possible that they wouldn't. Just an opinion not a statement of fact.

 

[TenerHallTerror]

almost as good as Sinbad's genie movie . . .

 

[ralphster]

The ND-Michigan spread should always include the square root of a negative number. Because in my imaginary world, they both lose.

 

[Woodpecker]

The ND-Michigan spread should always include the square root of a negative number. Because in my imaginary world, they both lose.

They could make the spread π but that wouldn't be rational.