Looking at this year's line up...just a few questions to be honest (LONG)

[Obliviax]

?????

You ever see OSU play?

They throw the ball deep about as often as any offense in the country.....even without your typical "strong-arm" QB

Their pass game couldn't be any more different from the historical offenses of the NW spread.

just my point.....spread can be used in many ways depending upon the talent on the field. I am sure PSU will throw deep, from time to time, and I note that Trace McS threw the ball 40 yards on a rope in Blue White. You don't have to throw the ball 70 yards to have a deep game.

But nobody has a Barkley or a Hamilton or a Blacknall. So there are a ton of interesting ways to exploit that talent set.

 

[bmw199]

 

[LaJolla Lion]

just my point.....spread can be used in many ways depending upon the talent on the field. I am sure PSU will throw deep, from time to time, and I note that Trace McS threw the ball 40 yards on a rope in Blue White. You don't have to throw the ball 70 yards to have a deep game.

But nobody has a Barkley or a Hamilton or a Blacknall. So there are a ton of interesting ways to exploit that talent set.

Agree. PSU will throw deep and you can go back and watch Trace's high school tape and see him toss the ball 50 yards. Again this is another bad myth out there and some people just run with it. No he doesn't have Hack's arm, but he doesn't need it. Hell Brees probably doesn't have Hack's arm to be honest. Morrelli could throw the ball a country mile, yeah...that really opened things up and scared the life out of everyone. This offense is predicated around finding the mismatch and exploiting it. It's not a long ball contest.

 

[StinkStankStunk]

just my point.....spread can be used in many ways depending upon the talent on the field. I am sure PSU will throw deep, from time to time, and I note that Trace McS threw the ball 40 yards on a rope in Blue White. You don't have to throw the ball 70 yards to have a deep game.

But nobody has a Barkley or a Hamilton or a Blacknall. So there are a ton of interesting ways to exploit that talent set.

I'll go do something less pointless......gonna' go discuss Chinese Calculus with my Lab.

 

[GregInPitt]

I REALLY like Marcus Allen as a safety in this defense - especially playing in this "QB Lacking" conference.

But, for a big-time D1 Safety, he is painfully slow of foot.
All American? No......but I do think he is valuable to this defense.

There were reports that Allen was considerably bigger at LFL than he was last year, and he was a pretty big Safety last year. It would not surprise me, with all the young Safety's breaking into competition for playing time, if Allen get's an audition at LB as Fall practice goes along.....

 

[GregInPitt]

But they are some pretty BIG ones. Guys will be in pads in less than a month so I figured we can start talking about 2016.

QB - Trace or Tommy. Trace will get the nod and he appears to win football games. Hopefully that translates into his college career. A pretty good 1-2 option as both can use their feet and hopefully both stay healthy to let Jake Z grow up for a year. New offense for all so there will be some bumps in the road. Question marks postion.

RB - Barkley, A Rob, Sanders, and Allen. No way around this....just a very talented deep group. Barkley is pretty damn big this year and there is some nice depth behind him this year. He will be able to take a break and PSU should still be able to produce on the ground. No questions. Top 5 talent at RB.

WR - Godwin, Hamilton, Blacknall (forgot initially) Polk, Thompkins, J Johnson, and Charles. Another deep and talented group. Polk and Thomkins provide some speed while Godwin is just a flat out stud. He may not be the fastest, but I'm not sure many are tougher than he is. Hamilton is also very steady. It will be interesting to see what the twin towers bring to the table this year. Both were highly recruited and both will see the field this year. No questions.

TE - Mike G, Bowers, Holland, Dalton - Boom or bust is the best way to describe this position. It is certainly one spot that is a question mark. Mike G is a freak of an athlete at 6-6 and can run. This year is his make or break year and I do expect much more production from him this year. Bowers also has some explosiveness, but this position is certainly one that can really accelerate the growth of this offense this year. Question marks postion.

OL - Nelson, Bates, Gaia, Mahon/DD, Beh/Palmer - Experience is there, but this OL has yet to perform consistently. Depth has been an issue here, but at least you're starting to see a 2 deep full of players on ship. We have to hope Limegrover and Moorhead really make an impact here. It's time to s**t or get off the pot and let the young kids take their lumps. HUGE QUESTION MARKS HERE.

DE - Sickels, Schwann, Brown, Buchholz, Miller, and Simmons (Joseph maybe?). Sickels needs to take that big step up this year and assert himself as a big time player. Schwann believe it or not has testing numbers that are freakish, but nothing has translated on the field. Brown, Miller, Buchholz, Simmons, and Joseph will all have the opportunity to earn PT. The depth is very young and very raw and you aren't going to see lightening strike twice with another Nassib. This unit will have to all pitch in to make an impact. HUGE QUESTION MARKS HERE.

DT - White, Cothren, Givens, Windsor, Cothran, Thrift, and possibly Chavis. No returning starters and comign out of the spring it looks like the most effect DT may be an undersized Givens. This position will have to really step up and make plays. Depth is a little better than we anticpated, but is it quality? HUGE QUESTION MARKS HERE.

LB's - NWW, Bell, Cabinda, Cooper, Bowen, Toney, Brown, Thomas (maybe Farmer again?) - Starting 3 are very solid and proven. This unit just lacks real depth and is very green beyond the starters. Cooper and Bowen will see some time, but Toney and Brown are both a full year away and not typical LB's. I know Toney stated he wants to be a DE, but he is under 200 lbs and the depth chart alone kind of dictates he starts out at LB. Question marks postion most due to depth, starters are very solid if they can stay healthy.

CB's - Reid, Haley, Campbell, Taylor, Amani O, Johnson, McPherson - Again the starters look to be very solid and even the reserves have seen some time. PSU for the last 10-15 years was not very strong at CB, but this is one of the better units they have had. No questions.

Safety - Allen, Golden, Apke, Monroe, Miller, Petrishen, and Farmer maybe. Solid set of safties, but no AA's in the bunch. Some young guys could push for PT, but it's a solid group that actually has a bit of depth. Allen needs to play under control and he will take a step forward this year IMO. No questions. Some may disagree here...get that, but it's not a bad unit overall.

K/P, need Babir and Gilliken to upgrade this position. Huge upgrade if they can perfrom. Question marks for sure.

Bottom line this season will revolve around both lines. No way around it.

Good overview, but I'm not as pessimistic about a few positions, mainly because in college football it's the norm to replace about half of your starters each year...

OL - as has been mentioned above, the OL did get better as last season went on. Sure, many of the experienced returning players have not played at a real high level yet, but experience and maturity do matter in line play. Complementing the experienced OL kids with high end talent like Bates and Menet can't help but produce an improved OL. Not likely a top 3 B10 line, but a respectable mid-B10 line.

DE - having one talented returning starter at DE is a great place to build on. Sickels was highly recruited and has gotten better, and should get even better in 2016. Our past high performing DE's did not all woo us right out of the box. See Nassib.... A kid like Schwan, who has reportedly gotten much bigger, filling out his frame with 15 additional pounds of muscle (see Nassib, again), is likely to be at least an adequate starter. Brown has shown athleticism and also could have a breakout year. I watched Buchholz in the B33 and he has a motor. And Simmons at 240+lbs also looks ready, and we know he could have gone to Bama or anywhere he wanted and gotten playing time. I'm more optimistic than you are at DE.

Safety - I agree with you and don't see why some would question the talent there. Farmer could break out, and the staff commented last year on Monroe's talent during the Fall. Apke is experienced and one of the best athletes on the team. Allen has started for 2 years and Golden is a RS Senior who has gotten considerable playing time the last couple of years - an athletic kid recruited as a WR. Lots of experience and talent - also Miller, Petrishen, and any of the CB's that have outgrown CB..... And there are candidates now slotted at Safety to provide a lift to the LB depth if necessary.....

 

[StinkStankStunk]

There were reports that Allen was considerably bigger at LFL than he was last year, and he was a pretty big Safety last year. It would not surprise me, with all the young Safety's breaking into competition for playing time, if Allen get's an audition at LB as Fall practice goes along.....

I would be surprised.......but, at the same time - it could be the best move for both the team and for Allens future NFL potential (he ain't gonna play S in the NFL)

 

[Option Bob]

Very interesting football thread. I enjoy reading differing opinions about the season.

One small item so far overlooked, IMO: Tyler Davis was perfect on his FGs and XPs. I think he is a plus as a PK.

 

[PSUSignore]

Still think there's a lot of PTSD as it pertains to the OL from the 10 sack Temple game.

Need to step back and consider a lot of fairly sound reasoning to anticipate a better OL this year.

1 - The OL improved last year. As astounding as it is to comprehend, the OL performed fairly well as the season went along. After that opener, PSU gave up just over 2 sacks per game and averaged just under 5 ypc on the ground (and this is while starting 10 different combos due to injuries to some key personnel and with Barkley hampered in the first 1/3rd of the season with the ankle sprain and missing a lot of action.

2 - More depth and more options to plug holes this year on the OL than we've had in 5-6 years.

3 - Better system to make up for OL vulnerabilities. The spread offense with a mobile QB can overcome a lot of deficiences on a suspect (if one believes that is what we have) OL.

I think your 3rd point is going to make the biggest impact this year. I'm excited to see what we can do on offense for the first time since OB left. I think the additions of Moorhead and Limegrover, as well as a change in style at QB, will pay dividends.

I fully expect as the season opens to see 8 men in the box and opposing teams looking to stop the run and force Trace to prove he can throw it. Hopefully the new offense will keep defenses more honest and not allow them to cheat.....and he can make some of those quick throws accurately.

I hope you are right. Based on what I've seen on Moorhead's offense, if teams load the box I like our chances. Keep in mind that during the last 2 years the solution for the OL was to bring in help in the form of more TEs and RBs in blocking support. That allowed the defense to crowd the box with minimal risk of getting beat outside. Given that even with the added protection Hack still had almost no time to throw that reduced the downfield risks even more. Based on everything I've read, this year's offense will not bring in a ton of blocking help and will expose the defense to big risk if they still decide to load the box.

Numbers don't lie:
In 2016 PSU finished 125th out of 127 teams in offensive 3rd down conversion percentage.
That's how not to win football games: offense can't convert and the defense has to defend a short field most of the time.

Has there been enough improvement with the o-line that when you add a running QB to the mix this unit can move into the top 50 in terms of third down conversions on offense? If we have a better punter (I know he is a frosh) than this team will be in the thick of most games.

I think the single biggest issue with 3rd downs was how many negative yardage plays we had. While everyone talks about the sacks, we also had a lot of tackles for loss against us. The offense was seemingly always behind the sticks. Then when faced with 3rd and long our OL had to provide the time for the play to develop and the players to get to first down markers. We all know how that worked out.

I think LJ got 270+ in the first half. Wasn't it a 68 yarder that got him over 2000?

I don't know how many yards he had in the 1st half, but he most definitely eclipsed 2k before halftime. I think he needed ~270 coming into the game. He got it in style, on a TD run as you suggested. I also thought it was a longer one (he had a 78 yard TD earlier in the game) but LJ2k came on a 38 yarder. I had to look it up to confirm some of the details, what a game that was for him. 19 carries, 279 yards (14.7 avg.), 4 TDs in the first half only. PSU beat MSU 61-7.

 

[21Guns]

Very interesting football thread. I enjoy reading differing opinions about the season.

One small item so far overlooked, IMO: Tyler Davis was perfect on his FGs and XPs. I think he is a plus as a PK.

But a liability as a kickoff specialist. Between Barbir and Gillikin, there needs to be someone who can drive the ball into the end zone, unless Franklin appreciably upgrades his kick coverage unit.

 

[Option Bob]

But a liability as a kickoff specialist. Between Barbir and Gillikin, there needs to be someone who can drive the ball into the end zone, unless Franklin appreciably upgrades his kick coverage unit.

That's a good point. Perhaps Joe J has spend the past 8 months mastering the kickoff.

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

The receivers are so solid that Franklin should consider using a tight end with major blocking ability. I doubt that the tight end will play a big role in the passing game anyway.

Moorhead's formations are going to use a "flex" TE, where the TE can be split and line up as a Flanker-back (capable of blocking on the run option) or even possibly as a "slot-back" to pull defensive assets laterally. PSU will not run a lot of formations where the TE is lined-up necessarily as a traditional "Tight" End as it draws defensive assets into the box with 6 men lined up directly on the OL. PSU will likely use many two back sets where the RBs are lined up as "Half-Backs", possibly 2 true WR (e.g., "Split Ends"), TE lined up as a "flanker" to strong-side this type of formation gives you 5 eligible receivers on the Read-Option Spread (both Split Ends, both HBs, and TE lined up as Flanker). Or you could have the 2 Split Ends, 1 RB, a Flanker and a slot receiver.....OR 2 Split Ends, 1 RB and 2 Slot Receivers....OR 1 Split End, one Slot Receiver lined up on LOS (e.g., TE lined up beyond T, but not all the was "Split", 2 RBs and a Flanker.....etc... (the permutations are endless). Essentially, you can only have 7 guys on LOS (player at end of LOS on each side is eligible) if you want the other 3 players other than the QB eligible - the other 3 players must be lined up at least 1-yard behind the LOS.

In any event, I don't know that PSU is going to run that many formations where the TE lines up as a true "tight" end (e.g., right next to T on strong side) without the ability to "motion" and shift, because this will simply draw defensive assets into the box - much easier to just make them spread defensive assets laterally, than have to account for blocking them with an RB, TE, etc.....

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

[


You can't "spread the field" with any success if you are not a threat in the downfield passing game

From the looks of things, that could be a problem for PSU.....but, of course, we have only seen snippets thus far.

Somewhat true, but you don't necessarily need to throw really deep in this regard. I really liked the throw I saw from Trace in the bowl game (UGa had the #1 Pass D in the nation last year) and then the same throw in the B/W game but from the opposite side of the field - the "skinny slant" both for TDs on absolutely perfect passes from Trace (especially the 2nd TD against UGa, that throw was a thing of beauty - put where only the PSU player catch it). That pass absolutely "stretches" a defense as it is extremely quick hitting and can be delivered to a slanting receiver that breaks open to the inside AS SOON as they are open (e.g., if the Safety help on that side creeps forward and into the box post snap and the "Hot Receiver" to that side of the field gets inside leverage....Trace would likely be looking for this on the "Read-Option", but the ball from RB and hit slanting WR breaking into clear..... You only have to hit that play once before the opposing DC is going to get a bit gun-shy on pulling the Safety forward.).

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

His throws were "from the pocket" because that was the kind of offense we ran last year.


I don't agree. You line up with three guys wide right and two guys wide left. to cover that, the D will have to put at least two guys left and two guys right to cover then. Perhaps five. That leaves six or seven in the box against six offensive players (QB and five linemen). Now, the offense can run a quick in, or a quick out, or a bubble screen. One broken tackle and its to the house. Good luck covering Hamilton in the slot with a LB. and what if the D plays a nickel? You have Barkley or Sanders in a wide slot and put him in motion to where you can snap it while he's in the backfield (becoming a RB) or let him go to the other sideline where he is a slot on the other side. Good luck defending a zone/read run with Barkley and McSorely in the backfield. And, once the D commits with the personnel, the O runs hurry up and hammers them since they can't substitute unless the offense does. Then, PSU has a great lineup with big WR's, small/fast WR's, big/fast TE's, and Barkley/Sanders coming out of the backfield (run, pass or block). We've got so much flexibility on offense I have no idea how to defend us as long as we execute.

If you run a no-back set with two true WRs (e.g., "Split Ends") and some combination of 3 "slot receivers" (e.g., 3 Slot Receivers must be at least 1-Yard behind LOS regardless of where they set up to remain eligible), very few defenses would line up with "6 in the box" and zero deep help ("box" is defined as outside shoulder T-to-T [in this case because no TE] and any defender with in two yards of the LOS - IOW, two yard "box" from outside-shoulder of both Tackles). Defense would generally at least account for all eligible receivers and play one Safety probably deep down center of field. If you shifted one of the eligible "Slot Receivers" into backfield (where they are now a threat to run), a defender would probably follow them into "the box", then you would have 6 in the box.

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

No, the offensive line did not, "improve" last year. 2 sacks per game is awful, and the yardage from the ground game came almost exclusively from Barkley doing it on his own.

Regardless of system, you are, what your talent says you are, on the offensive line. We WILL have better talent at 3 of the 5 spots this year, which is an upgrade. We'll see SOME improvement up front this year, but not full improvement until all 5 spots are upgraded.

Somebody forgot to tell ASWP's awesome OL that because I believe they averaged more than 2 sacks given up per game last year (believe ASWP gave up 29 or 30 sacks last year -- like 80th in the nation.....way down the list).

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

Godwin is a deep threat. Blacknall is a deep threat. Johnson is a deep threat. Charles is a deep threat. Polk is a deep threat.

That's five deep threats, as opposed to none, so that "argument" should be thrown away now.

Ummmm, #10 is definitely a "deep threat" - especially right of the LOS on the skinny post with inside leverage and safeties coming up.....

 

[21Guns]

That's a good point. Perhaps Joe J has spend the past 8 months mastering the kickoff.

...or, they could simply put the kid who kicks the ball off the longest, on the field...

That might also work. If that happens to be Joe, then fantastic, if it's somebody else, then that kid should be out there.

 

[Raffycorn]

If you run a no-back set with two true WRs (e.g., "Split Ends") and some combination of 3 "slot receivers" (e.g., 3 Slot Receivers must be at least 1-Yard behind LOS regardless of where they set up to remain eligible), very few defenses would line up with "6 in the box" and zero deep help ("box" is defined as outside shoulder T-to-T [in this case because no TE] and any defender with in two yards of the LOS - IOW, two yard "box" from outside-shoulder of both Tackles). Defense would generally at least account for all eligible receivers and play one Safety probably deep down center of field. If you shifted one of the eligible "Slot Receivers" into backfield (where they are now a threat to run), a defender would probably follow them into "the box", then you would have 6 in the box.

What most defenses would try to do in that situation (5 WR personnel), is probably run four corners (a nickel and dime CB) instead of OLBs and still run two safeties. That leaves five in the box, with a SS trying to cheat down to give you some extra help if the quarterback is mobile to account for him.

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

What most defenses would try to do in that situation (5 WR personnel), is probably run four corners (a nickel and dime CB) instead of OLBs and still run two safeties. That leaves five in the box, with a SS trying to cheat down to give you some extra help if the quarterback is mobile to account for him.

Maybe something like that if they can get the personnel in (say PSU ran same personnel from a two back set prior play...). In any event, if you have a good Run-Option QB, PSU would have the advantage here as you would be hat-on-hat in the box and it would take the SS quite a while to track down the QB..... Also, in this scenario, assume all the slot receivers run medium crossing patterns and SEs run downfield patterns (straight fly or skinny post)....you now have a situation where there is ZERO deep help because you are 5 Eligible Receivers versus 4 CBs and the FS (remember, you have the SS moving up from deep help down center of field to LOS to "spy" QB). QB sees any mismatches out of 5, you have a potential TD.

 

[Raffycorn]

Maybe something like that if they can get the personnel in (say PSU ran same personnel from a two back set prior play...). In any event, if you have a good Run-Option QB, PSU would have the advantage here as you would be hat-on-hat in the box and it would take the SS quite a while to track down the QB..... Also, in this scenario, assume all the slot receivers run medium crossing patterns and SEs run downfield patterns (straight fly or skinny post)....you now have a situation where there is ZERO deep help because you are 5 Eligible Receivers versus 4 CBs and the FS (remember, you have the SS moving up from deep help down center of field to LOS to "spy" QB). QB sees any mismatches out of 5, you have a potential TD.

Absolutely - having a QB who you need to account for and forcing a defense to play 11 vs. 11 instead of 11 vs. 10 changes the equation substantially for defenses.

FWIW, I wasn't talking as much about the SS playing a spy, or even the SS creeping into the box. What a defense would probably try to do there (assuming, as you said, that they're able to get dime personnel in - a big assumption and what Moorhead wants to avoid as much as possible) is creep the SS up a yard or two from his normal position to provide some support if he sees immediate QB Power at the snap - if not, he's dropping in what'd usually be a modified cover-4 with the CBs on each side playing a 2-read and flowing coverage based on the routes off the snap, with the FS running help over the top and the SS flowing to help on the side where the extra receiver is.

But in that situation, you'd probably hope as a defense that your MLB (who in dime personnel would probably be your most athletic LB because he's the only one on the field and has a lot of space to cover) would spy the QB. Or, if the backfield's empty, you could see a 3-2-6, take a DT out and sub with another linebacker. In that case, you'd see one of those LBs running spy on the QB; even though its hat on hat, you still hope as a defense that your most athletic linebacker is able to maneuver around the OL assigned to him - but it doesn't put you in an ideal spot.

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

Absolutely - having a QB who you need to account for and forcing a defense to play 11 vs. 11 instead of 11 vs. 10 changes the equation substantially for defenses.

FWIW, I wasn't talking as much about the SS playing a spy, or even the SS creeping into the box. What a defense would probably try to do there (assuming, as you said, that they're able to get dime personnel in - a big assumption and what Moorhead wants to avoid as much as possible) is creep the SS up a yard or two from his normal position to provide some support if he sees immediate QB Power at the snap - if not, he's dropping in what'd usually be a modified cover-4 with the CBs on each side playing a 2-read and flowing coverage based on the routes off the snap, with the FS running help over the top and the SS flowing to help on the side where the extra receiver is.

But in that situation, you'd probably hope as a defense that your MLB (who in dime personnel would probably be your most athletic LB because he's the only one on the field and has a lot of space to cover) would spy the QB. Or, if the backfield's empty, you could see a 3-2-6, take a DT out and sub with another linebacker. In that case, you'd see one of those LBs running spy on the QB; even though its hat on hat, you still hope as a defense that your most athletic linebacker is able to maneuver around the OL assigned to him - but it doesn't put you in an ideal spot.

In Moorhead's "Read-Option Westcoast Spread Offense", I would assume that if the defense lines up "soft" (e.g., both Safeties deep, 4 CBs lined up in some type of match-up read zone), I would imagine that the base call would be a QB run with the OL zone-blocking in a "swing-gate" type action toward the side of the field with less defensive assets (weak side) with the option to pass IF the SS moves up aggressively post-snap. If the Safeties "drop" immediately post-snap, I would assume TM runs to open space with the OL "zone blocking" in a swinging gate wall trying to seal the pursuit toward the inside and TM running to the weak-side of the defense (and all the Receivers running off all DBs).