Measuring coach performance/program success

[PSUbluTX]

The spate of coaching changes got me wondering how to measure a coach’s success at a given school. I'm sure each school defines success and evaluates a coach’s performance differently. Not all have access to the same level of athlete/coaching talent, resources, facilities, etc, or the same commitment to athletics. For one school, anything short of a top 5 team finish at NCAAs would be deemed a disappointment, while another might be thrilled just to send one wrestler to the tournament.

I thought it might be interesting to look at how schools have historically performed at NCAAs and what kind of trends exist over a given coach’s tenure. I’m not saying success at the NCAAs is the most important factor to consider. I’m sure it isn’t. But it’s one factor, and we can at least measure it.

So I put together the table below showing schools that have had some degree of success at NCAAs between 2005-2018, who the coach was for each school at the end of the 2017-18 season, and how long the coach had been there. Tenure is noted numerically and by the yellow highlighted cells. I also highlighted in green the 3 seasons when Cael was at Iowa State. I randomly picked 15 years as a historical snapshot, but somehow ended up with only 14.

I share this here in case others find it interesting, amusing or whatever. One thing that jumped out at me is how many long-term coaches there are with mediocre to poor records at NCAAs -- e.g., Goldman at Indiana (25 yrs); Borelli at C. Michigan (26 yrs); Flynn at Edinboro (21 yrs); Martin at Old Dominion (14 yrs); Goodale at Rutgers (11 yrs).

Also, though not noted here, I was surprised to see that there were years when some schools ended up with less than zero points for the nat'l tourney. For example, Michigan State ended up with -0.5 points in 2015. Anyone know the backstory there? Were they gunning for the record for unsportsmanlike conduct that year or what?

 

[a_mshaffer]

the 'best' coach gets the most out of the athlete and turns/guides them into upstanding citizens. Some coaches are good at creating a program or system that creates the culture to do just that!

 

[ItalianLion]

Hmm...... I might need the help of the mathematicians on the board.

Looking at the New Jersey University line... just curious, but to be a “perennial top 10 team” would not a few of the listed integers need to less 11? (Unless we are counting the 0s)

 

[ItalianLion]

In all seriousness, it’s sort of fun looking over this table... thank you PSUbluTX for putting it together and sharing it.

Some less snarky observations than the one I made earlier:
1. NW drop off from the Pariano years is obvious, but Matt is slowly bring them back (what ever happened to Drew...anything ever come out?)
2. VT has an interesting trend, big pivot in ‘11 midway in Dresser’s reign... wonder what drove that, more scholarship funding, new recruiting assistant coach?
3. The “good coaches” objectively stand out: Cael, T&T, John Smith, Tom Ryan (ouch, that hurt to type), Rob Knoll, & Brian Smith. (Too early for me to put Kevin Dresser there yet until I see what he does at Iowa St given #2 above)

Just my random totally uninformed thoughts on a fun off-season topic

 

[Ian]

Outstanding. The sport is dominated by five teams... PSU, Iowa, O$U, OkSU, and Cornell. The sport needs others like Minnesota, Nebraska, Missouri, Michigan, Va Tech, and N.C. State to elevate and threaten the Big Five.

 

[NoVa Lion]

Outstanding. The sport is dominated by five teams... PSU, Iowa, O$U, OkSU, and Cornell. The sport needs others like Minnesota, Nebraska, Missouri, Michigan, Va Tech, and N.C. State to elevate and threaten the Big Five.

Based on those results I would say the Big 4. Cornell hasn't been on the podium for the last 6 years and Mizzou has finished ahead of them 4 years in a row.

 

[CholleyVandine]

One thing that jumped out at me is how many long-term coaches there are with mediocre to poor records at NCAAs -- e.g., Goldman at Indiana (25 yrs); Borelli at C. Michigan (26 yrs); Flynn at Edinboro (21 yrs); Martin at Old Dominion (14 yrs); Goodale at Rutgers (11 yrs).

Tough evaluator! Five top 10 finishes in the past 14 years at Edinboro seems pretty damn good to me.

 

[7brwnpsu]

I agree with you Cholley, Edinboro has had some good runs. FLynn was hurt this year by a transfer to Iowa.

 

[nitlion6]

I agree with you Cholley, Edinboro has had some good runs. FLynn was hurt this year by a transfer to Iowa.

If Edinboro had the money to fund 9.9 scholies as well as Iowa's hush slush Edinboro might be an unRutgers like perennial top 5 team.

 

[boroscott]

Tough evaluator! Five top 10 finishes in the past 14 years at Edinboro seems pretty damn good to me.

If we had a fully funded program I think perennial top 10 with spurts into top 5 would be the result.

 

[CUPrassler]

Aside from Cael... I am most impressed with Bono on this list. His 6 yrs at SDST he essentially built a winning team. His 1st 2 years, scored zero points ... was probably working thru kids. Kept recruiting and started to see results his 3rd year. They improved in his 4th year. Then his 5th and 6th year when he had been there the entire time with the kids he pulls out a 16th and a 12th place. I think he is going to have continued success at Wisconsin.

 

[Ian]

Another great comparison would be to overlap this chart with the recruiting rankings to see who is maximizing their relative talent... is the a comprehensive review or recruiting site for wrestling?

 

[matter7172]

2. VT has an interesting trend, big pivot in ‘11 midway in Dresser’s reign... wonder what drove that, more scholarship funding, new recruiting assistant coach?

I think it's hard to underestimate (overestimate?) the level to which VT sunk when Brands tanked the program and took a significant portion of the roster (all the good ones) to Iowa. Bad enough they were coming off a 1-15 dual season under Brands, but all the good wrestlers were leaving, they were considering dropping the program and were bringing in a high school coach (sort of like Rutgers without mass defections) to lead the program. The program was a few feet below ground zero. So, yeah, it took a few years to get the ship righted.

 

[Lyons212]

I think it's hard to underestimate (overestimate?) the level to which VT sunk when Brands tanked the program and took a significant portion of the roster (all the good ones) to Iowa. Bad enough they were coming off a 1-15 dual season under Brands, but all the good wrestlers were leaving, they were considering dropping the program and were bringing in a high school coach (sort of like Rutgers without mass defections) to lead the program. The program was a few feet below ground zero. So, yeah, it took a few years to get the ship righted.

I get the bringing in a high school coach for VT, but for this situation I always thought it was an unnecessary shot (mentioned by Brands). The high school coach in question was a NCAA champion, multi time All American under Gable. The high school coach comment for that situation always rubbed me the wrong way, it makes me think back to my high school coach who no experience in wrestling. In this situation, the coach in question had an excellent background. Given where VT was at the time, probably the best hire they could make.

BTW, my high school coach was a good coach, student of the game, but no way he would have been qualified to coach college.

 

[NoVa Lion]

I get the bringing in a high school coach for VT, but for this situation I always thought it was an unnecessary shot (mentioned by Brands). The high school coach in question was a NCAA champion, multi time All American under Gable. The high school coach comment for that situation always rubbed me the wrong way, it makes me think back to my high school coach who no experience in wrestling. In this situation, the coach in question had an excellent background. Given where VT was at the time, probably the best hire they could make.

BTW, my high school coach was a good coach, student of the game, but no way he would have been qualified to coach college.

Not to mention Dresser had Christiansburg HS (a small public school in the middle of nowhere VA, see Bald Eagle Area HS in PA for comparion) regularly in the top 20 in the country.

 

[midniteride]

Not to mention Dresser had Christiansburg HS (a small public school in the middle of nowhere VA, see Bald Eagle Area HS in PA for comparion) regularly in the top 20 in the country.

One of the things that seem to go unnoticed regarding Dresser's time at Christiansburg is the fact that quite a few of his better wrestlers transferred in from out of the area. The most obvious to me are the ones that came from South Jersey, such as Cody Gardner, Ian & Drew Squires, Andrew Pilla, John & Charlie Weber....

 

[matter7172]

I get the bringing in a high school coach for VT, but for this situation I always thought it was an unnecessary shot (mentioned by Brands). The high school coach in question was a NCAA champion, multi time All American under Gable. The high school coach comment for that situation always rubbed me the wrong way, it makes me think back to my high school coach who no experience in wrestling. In this situation, the coach in question had an excellent background. Given where VT was at the time, probably the best hire they could make.

BTW, my high school coach was a good coach, student of the game, but no way he would have been qualified to coach college.

I wasn't taking a shot, but looking at the program at the time from an outsider's perspective, it couldn't have helped recruiting. A high school coach without a track record as a college coach at a program that had an empty cupboard coming off a 1-15 season won't have top HS talent running to your door.

My point is that Dresser had a daunting task in front of him and it was bound to take a few years to get going.

 

[Ian]

Cael just named coach of the year for the 4th time by InterMat.....

 

[jammenz]

Another great comparison would be to overlap this chart with the recruiting rankings to see who is maximizing their relative talent... is the a comprehensive review or recruiting site for wrestling?

Ban, I know that you are new here but this board is very sensitive to any recruiting vs coaching talk.

Ok, I'm confused Ian or Ban.

 

[PSUbluTX]

Outstanding. The sport is dominated by five teams... PSU, Iowa, O$U, OkSU, and Cornell. The sport needs others like Minnesota, Nebraska, Missouri, Michigan, Va Tech, and N.C. State to elevate and threaten the Big Five.

Your comment got me thinking about how these 5 coaches' career NCAA tournament records would stack up against each other. I threw together a spreadsheet with those numbers (plus Mizzou in light of NoVa's comment). The results show the following average finish at NCAAs throughout their career at all schools where they were the head coach:

Here's the complete sheet:

 

[Ian]

Outstanding, PSUbluTX. Never really appreciated the longevity of JSmith and Koll at their schools. And Ryan and BSmith for that matter. JSmith in 91, Koll in 93, Ryan in 95, and BSmith in 98. How about JRob and Davis? McFarland had a good run, too. Cael’s run is still amazing in today’s sport. And still running. Think what he’ll accomplish at 20 yrs, 25 yrs?

 

[LorenzoFan]

Too many variables in each coach's situation to use national placing as the sole factor in determining how good a coach is.

 

[Lyons212]

I wasn't taking a shot, but looking at the program at the time from an outsider's perspective, it couldn't have helped recruiting. A high school coach without a track record as a college coach at a program that had an empty cupboard coming off a 1-15 season won't have top HS talent running to your door.

My point is that Dresser had a daunting task in front of him and it was bound to take a few years to get going.

My comment really wasn't directed at you...no doubt Dresser had a huge challenge there coming into the program as a high school coach.

The high school coach comment was actually used by Brands and the wrestlers that followed him to Iowa from VT as justification that they should be released from their scholarship at VT. It was in the book "Four Days to Glory". Obviously in that context, the comment does not hold water. After all, Dresser had a very similar background to Brands (sans gold medal) with the same mentor coach....they probably had very similar philosophies too.

 

[matter7172]

My comment really wasn't directed at you...no doubt Dresser had a huge challenge there coming into the program as a high school coach.

The high school coach comment was actually used by Brands and the wrestlers that followed him to Iowa from VT as justification that they should be released from their scholarship at VT. It was in the book "Four Days to Glory". Obviously in that context, the comment does not hold water. After all, Dresser had a very similar background to Brands (sans gold medal) with the same mentor coach....they probably had very similar philosophies too.

Gotcha. I didn't know about the high school coach label being used by Brands in that way. Helluva nice guy, that Brands guy. A real prince.

 

[7brwnpsu]

A appreciative Rob Koll story. My son and I were leaving the Auburn Hills arena in 2007 after the last NCAA session, finals were over. Rob Koll was ahead of us walking to the escalator to leave. I called out his name and even though he did not know me he stopped to talk to my 14 year old son and me.

I told him that I had just bought his newest techniques video for the neutral position and told him it was great. He laughed and told my it was a piece of shyt. He further explained that he was doing a clinic that week but did not know they were going to video that day. Had he known, he would have been better prepared. He was too critical on himself; good coaches like perfection.

To this day, I appreciate that he got out of line to leave and delayed himself in going to a party or meet some people to talk to us. Great guy.

From that video, there is a counter to a weak double leg takedown where you jam the guy with your hips and basically run right through the opponent and put him to the mat. My son used it a couple times to stop a takedown and stay in the neutrail position. However years later I saw it to perfection in Rec Hall when David Taylor did it, and then continued to step over the guy rotate his hips to get two plus three. I Don't think the three was ever awarded as if I remember he pinned the guy basically sitting on his chest.

Thanks Coach Koll.

One last thing to say how the dynamics have changed as to team competition. Minnesota won it at Auburn Hills (2007) with Iowa State as runner up. The Ohio State was 10th and Penn State scored 54 team points and finished out of the top ten.

Coaching matters thanks Cael, Cody, Casey and Jake.

 

[PSUer1989]

I went to school with Rob Koll from Boalsburg Elementary on...a very nice guy! I haven't seen him since HS, but I always pull for Cornell as long as they aren't wrestling PSU guys...

 

[matter7172]

Rob Koll sits in the same row as my brother the last couple of years at PIAAs. Seems like a quiet, studious guy.

 

[jammenz]

Lets look at recruiting success as the deciding factor of overall success. Top 10 overall recruits on schools roster 2005-2017 as these 13 years are listed on D1CW.
PSU (21)------ 1,1,1,2,3,3,3,3,4,5,5,5,6,6,7,7,7,8,8,9,10
OH St (15)-----1,1,1,4,4,4,6,6,6,7,8,9,9,10,10
OK St (13)-----1,2,3,4,4,4,5,7,7,8,8,9,10
Corn (10)-------3,3,3,3,4,4,5,6,7,7
Iowa(8)----------2,2,4,6,7,8,8,10
The above five schools get over 51% of all the top 10 recruits available.

IA St (5)---------4,5,5,10,10
MI (4)-------------2,2,2,2
VaTech (4)------1,2,6,10
MN (4)------------1,3,5,9
NE (3)-------------5,6,9
MO (1)-------------7

Top 10 recruits are the best predictors of a schools NCAA success.

 

[jammenz]

Let's look at 11-20 recruits for the same time frame.
Iowa (13)------11,11,12,14,14,15,15,16,17,18,19,19,20
OKSt (10)-----11,13,13,14,15,15,15,16,16,19
MN (9)----------11,12,15,15,16,17,18,20,20
NE (8)----------11,16,17,17,18,19,20,20
IA St (5)--------11,11,13,16,20
OH St (5)------11,12,16,16,16
VA Tech (5)---16,17,19,19,19
PSU (4)--------12,13,15,20
MI (4)------------12,17,18,19
Corn (2)---------11,16
MO (1)-----------19
This does make one wonder how Brian Smith manages to finish 3,4,5,6,6,7,7,10,11,11 at NCAA's.

 

[liex26]

In many sports wrestling included, recruiting is one of the most important aspects of the job. There are exceptions around both good and bad, but in order to be a successful program you have to be able to bring in the talent, manage the egos, fine tune technique.

It's an impossible task to try and measure and put a number on a coaches accomplishments fairly. If you do attempt it, and you try and minimize a coach for recruiting well, your doing it wrong.

 

[PSUbluTX]

Too many variables in each coach's situation to use national placing as the sole factor in determining how good a coach is.

It's an impossible task to try and measure and put a number on a coaches accomplishments fairly. If you do attempt it, and you try and minimize a coach for recruiting well, your doing it wrong.

Completely agree, which is why I noted in the OP,
“I’m not saying success at the NCAAs is the most important factor to consider. I’m sure it isn’t. But it’s one factor, and we can at least measure it.”