Football Michigan opens as a 7pt favorite versus PSU next weekend

[Richie O]

Penn State has opened as a touchdown underdog to Michigan for their upcoming matchup between the two top-10, undefeated teams.

Happy Valley Insider - Penn State enters gameweek against Michigan as touchdown underdog

Penn State is a touchdown underdog to Michigan as they enter their week seven matchup.

pennstate.rivals.com

 

[Parkerdam555]

6.5 as of tonight

 

[Online Persona]

6.5 as of tonight

Should continue to go down IMO. This is likely a coin flip and I can understand why Vegas would believe that the referines ensure which side wins. But we may just be good enough to overcome the typical 7 to 10 point Michigan bias of the referines.

 

[KCLion]

Should continue to go down IMO. This is likely a coin flip and I can understand why Vegas would believe that the referines ensure which side wins. But we may just be good enough to overcome the typical 7 to 10 point Michigan bias of the referines.

I think it was actually 5.5 yesterday morning.

 

[Online Persona]

I think it was actually 5.5 yesterday morning.

Sharps probably pushed it down right away

 

[lowhandicapper]

Sharps probably pushed it down right away

Based on how awesome Michigan is I'm really surprised the line isn't like -27 or something. Their first year quarterback has completed like 6 passes under pressure this year and their running back ran for 5 touchdowns against UConn.... 5 touchdowns. It's his Heisman to lose, that is if McCarthey doesn't snatch it from him along the way.

 

[tlbakernc]

Have a feeling last years home game played into the 7 points. Gambling is as much about psychology as anything. You also have the perceptions of Michigan being dominant by playing, what so far, has been a weak schedule. Then you can also question which PSU OL will show up and how long will Clifford go ice cold in the game.

 

[TN Lion]

Penn State is the better team and should win but may not be able to overcome bad officiating. The degree of that bad officiating will determine the outcome.

 

[bvillebaron]

Based on how awesome Michigan is I'm really surprised the line isn't like -27 or something. Their first year quarterback has completed like 6 passes under pressure this year and their running back ran for 5 touchdowns against UConn.... 5 touchdowns. It's his Heisman to lose, that is if McCarthey doesn't snatch it from him along the way.

You weren’t impressed with their home performance against a 50 point underdog, Hawaii?

 

[psuno1]

Based on how awesome Michigan is I'm really surprised the line isn't like -27 or something. Their first year quarterback has completed like 6 passes under pressure this year and their running back ran for 5 touchdowns against UConn.... 5 touchdowns. It's his Heisman to lose, that is if McCarthey doesn't snatch it from him along the way.

Wait, I thought it was CJ Stroud, TreVeyon Henderson and Jaxson Smith-Njigba Heisman to lose?

 

[lazydave841]

their running back ran for 5 touchdowns against UConn.... 5 touchdowns. It's his Heisman to lose, that is if McCarthey doesn't snatch it from him along the way.

Corum is a very good back. I won't discredit him because Wolverine fans that pop in here are trolls. He's vital to their offense. He makes it go. Their primary backup seems to be a better 3rd down back than a bell cow. He's not done anything yet that leads one to believe he can take the reins yet.

Still, can Corum do this vs Big 10 competition? His numbers are actually better vs Big 10 teams save for the TDs, but Harbaugh didn't waste him vs the 3 cellar dwellers they had beat just by showing up.

 

[bcspsu]

Corum is a very good back. I won't discredit him because Wolverine fans that pop in here are trolls. He's vital to their offense. He makes it go. Their primary backup seems to be a better 3rd down back than a bell cow. He's not done anything yet that leads one to believe he can take the reins yet.

Still, can Corum do this vs Big 10 competition? His numbers are actually better vs Big 10 teams save for the TDs, but Harbaugh didn't waste him vs the 3 cellar dwellers they had beat just by showing up.

My guess is that OSU handily will beat this UM team at home; UM just will not be able to match points with them. I'm not going to say what I think OSU will do against PSU. It's mind-boggling that Day only has lost one Big 10 game in his tenure as OSU head coach.

 

[ryoder1]

Corum is a very good back. I won't discredit him because Wolverine fans that pop in here are trolls. He's vital to their offense. He makes it go. Their primary backup seems to be a better 3rd down back than a bell cow. He's not done anything yet that leads one to believe he can take the reins yet.

Still, can Corum do this vs Big 10 competition? His numbers are actually better vs Big 10 teams save for the TDs, but Harbaugh didn't waste him vs the 3 cellar dwellers they had beat just by showing up.

We have to be able to slowdown Corum. They want to give him about 25 carries and expect 125 yards or more. If he has those numbers it will be tough for us to overcome unless we run very well and/or Clifford has a great day.

 

[lazydave841]

My guess is that OSU handily will beat this UM team at home; UM just will not be able to match points with them. I'm not going to say what I think OSU will do against PSU.

I'm not fast to forget what Notre Dame did week 1. They slowed the offensive juggernaut down and forced them to run the ball to win the game. An inept ND offense hurt them. Or it could have been a vastly improved Buckeye defense.

Still, Michigan DL should match up well. Their LBs play the run well. Can they hold up in pass defense? What will the weather be? That helped Michigan last year.

 

[bcspsu]

I'm not fast to forget what Notre Dame did week 1. They slowed the offensive juggernaut down and forced them to run the ball to win the game. An inept ND offense hurt them. Or it could have been a vastly improved Buckeye defense.

Still, Michigan DL should match up well. Their LBs play the run well. Can they hold up in pass defense? What will the weather be? That helped Michigan last year.

For whatever reason, OSU was not in top form offensively against ND, and you do have to give some credit to ND for that. However, their offense has been a machine lately; they just move up and down the field so fast and score almost at will. Unless there are really extreme weather conditions, I have to believe that they will score at least in the 30s against any of their Big 10 opponents, and that may be shortchanging them.

 

[ND Heaven68]

I'm not fast to forget what Notre Dame did week 1. They slowed the offensive juggernaut down and forced them to run the ball to win the game. An inept ND offense hurt them. Or it could have been a vastly improved Buckeye defense.

Still, Michigan DL should match up well. Their LBs play the run well. Can they hold up in pass defense? What will the weather be? That helped Michigan last year.

I'm not sure if ND did the B1G any favors in that game. The key to slowing down OSU's offense (notice I didn't say stop) are the two safeties. We played them back almost the whole game to prevent anything deep and OSU tried to force a few things in the 1st half. The 2nd half was a different story as you said, they figured it out and just pounded it on the ground and they're excellent at both the passing and running games. ND's strengths are the OL and DL lines and OSU just took over the LOS in the 2nd half

 

[doctornick]

I'm not fast to forget what Notre Dame did week 1. They slowed the offensive juggernaut down and forced them to run the ball to win the game. An inept ND offense hurt them. Or it could have been a vastly improved Buckeye defense.

I hate too take too much away from the first game of the season when there is so much adjustment. I think any offensive sluggishness vs ND in week 1 was likely more a fluke than a trend unless the Buckeyes start scuffling again.

 

[lazydave841]

I'm not sure if ND did the B1G any favors in that game. The key to slowing down OSU's offense (notice I didn't say stop) are the two safeties. We played them back almost the whole game to prevent anything deep and OSU tried to force a few things in the 1st half. The 2nd half was a different story as you said, they figured it out and just pounded it on the ground and they're excellent at both the passing and running games. ND's strengths are the OL and DL lines and OSU just took over the LOS in the 2nd half

OSU is a tough finesse team. You have to disrupt what they do or the timing will kill you with completions and one missed tackle and one of their WRs will burn you. If you have to commit too much attention to stopping the run, you can't cover 4 WRs/TE and a RB slipping out. You have to disrupt them because they otherwise play like a machine.

I hate too take too much away from the first game of the season when there is so much adjustment. I think any offensive sluggishness vs ND in week 1 was likely more a fluke than a trend unless the Buckeyes start scuffling again.

You could be right. ND did have a great plan. 2 high safeties. DL disrupting the pass game without a lot of blitzing and containing the run. LBs held up very well.

But their QB couldn't hit any big passes. They don't have a WR who can break a defense. You gotta score more than 10 to beat OSU. It a gargantuan ask to think your defense should hold them to 9 or less.

 

[lowhandicapper]

I hate too take too much away from the first game of the season when there is so much adjustment. I think any offensive sluggishness vs ND in week 1 was likely more a fluke than a trend unless the Buckeyes start scuffling again.

Losing what most experts considered the best WR in the country, maybe the best non-QB player in the first few minutes of game had to be devastating to the team and offensive gameplan. I'm sure a significant part of the plan was to include JSI. So months of planning had to be immediately altered. Not to mention the pyche of the team losing a leader.

 

[AdvanSix]

Corum is a very good back. I won't discredit him because Wolverine fans that pop in here are trolls. He's vital to their offense. He makes it go. Their primary backup seems to be a better 3rd down back than a bell cow. He's not done anything yet that leads one to believe he can take the reins yet.

Still, can Corum do this vs Big 10 competition? His numbers are actually better vs Big 10 teams save for the TDs, but Harbaugh didn't waste him vs the 3 cellar dwellers they had beat just by showing up.

I've spent a little time looking at our respective schedules. PSU's best two opponents have been Purdue and Auburn. UM's are Maryland and Iowa or Indiana. Purdue and Maryland just played a pretty even game. Iowa and Indiana are both lousy - I give credit for scheduling Auburn OOC but reality is they're really not much better. CMU, Ohio and NW aren't exactly world beaters either.

 

[lazydave841]

Early sack. LBs tackling well on the short stuff. Harrison dropped a TD. ND dropped from their 2 high and Stroud attacked it 2nd time they showed it and scored their 1st TD. LBs playing good downhill on expected run plays. Lot of zone coverage. Forcing OSU to make drives. Very good tackling. Day not being aggressive here. He tends to go for 4th and 3 or less vs PSU.

Williams running tougher than Henderson but both are getting yards. Didn't take JSN out soon enough. Their depth was better than him less than 100%. 2 high safeties very slow to support the run. ND didn't correct this. Let the backs come out of the line bottled up and the help was still 10 yards off the LoS. End of half.

3 straight passes out of halftime. Short and into zones. Next possession. Run, quick throw, sneak. Coverage stays tight, forcing throws into tough windows. And short of line to gain. Still not aggressive on 4th and short. Next possession. First down passing 2nd down running. ND seemed dead set on not giving up the middle. Let the ends play in, giving up the edge. OSU slowing down tempo. Stroud is considerably less accurate if his first read isn't there. Here's the telegraphed double safety blitz. 1 on 1 burnt em, TD. 14-10 now.

Run, run. 1st down. Rollout, pass short. Passes against the side lines moving the ball. Churning time though. Good mix of running and passing. Far more passing than I remember. Not the "OSU got tough and ran the ball" theme that was pervasive. 14 plays, 95 yards. 7 minutes. Death knell drive for ND.

Re-watched the YouTube version of just ND on defense. Interesting stuff when you change your focus.

Stroud wasn't perfect, but he connected with some really precise but lucky throws on the edge. One probably should have been reviewed, but alas.

 

[lazydave841]

I've spent a little time looking at our respective schedules. PSU's best two opponents have been Purdue and Auburn. UM's are Maryland and Iowa or Indiana. Purdue and Maryland just played a pretty even game. Iowa and Indiana are both lousy - I give credit for scheduling Auburn OOC but reality is they're really not much better. CMU, Ohio and NW aren't exactly world beaters either.

This is the week we both find out what we have. Hopefully neither of us falls apart thereafter, dulling the sheen of either sides win.

 

[Ole_Ted]

Honestly, Michigan should be a 10 point favorite. They’re at home, they have a better coach, and they simply put up more points Per game.

Penn State has played a pretty soft schedule so far. They looked absolutely terrible against a really bad Northwestern team.

Penn State also has a habit of shitting the bed when they come to Ann Arbor

 

[lazydave841]

Honestly, Michigan should be a 10 point favorite. They’re at home, they have a better coach, and they simply put up more points Per game.

Penn State has played a pretty soft schedule so far. They looked absolutely terrible against a really bad Northwestern team.

Penn State also has a habit of shitting the bed when they come to Ann Arbor

Maybe if Michigan had beat Indiana the same way they beat UConn or Hawaii, yall would be 10 pt favorites.

Instead, the game was uglier than many expected. Pollsters might have seen 31-10. Vegas saw 17-10 before IU petered out.

The gall of a person whining about the spread. 😭 😆

 

[bcspsu]

Honestly, Michigan should be a 10 point favorite. They’re at home, they have a better coach, and they simply put up more points Per game.

Penn State has played a pretty soft schedule so far. They looked absolutely terrible against a really bad Northwestern team.

Penn State also has a habit of shitting the bed when they come to Ann Arbor

Didn’t PSU beat Michigan the last time they played in Ann Arbor? I guess that game doesn’t count.

 

[81b&w]

Penn State also has a habit of shitting the bed when they come to Ann Arbor

I'd imagine you do the same and you live there, ouch

 

[crm114psu]

Didn’t PSU beat Michigan the last time they played in Ann Arbor? I guess that game doesn’t count.

2020 didn't count, as I've been told a bazillion times on this site. I don't really agree, but some people here need to make up their minds.