More to ignore, Book 103...

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Thread by @COUPSURE on Thread Reader App

@COUPSURE: Russia is preparing to lose the city of Kherson and the whole left bank of the Dnieper. They are currently getting ready to defend the right bank of the river. In this thread, I will show...…

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UPDATE: Saturday, Nov 5, 2022 · 12:03:00 PM EDT · Mark Sumner
News today concerning Russia’s destruction of HIMARS systems. That news would be that the count of HIMARS taken out so far is: 0.

Also, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead.

 

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UPDATE: Saturday, Nov 5, 2022 · 10:16:53 AM EDT · Mark Sumner
Weeks ago, there were warnings that Russia had laid out multiple lines of defense in a semi-circle around Svatove. After pressing forward from multiple directions, Ukraine now seems to be encountering the last line of that defense, but so far has been unable to punch through — in spite of claims a few days ago that a breach had opened on the north side of the city.

The result is that on Saturday, there’s a series of battles going on that seem to map out exactly where those Russian defenses are located. There have been videos showing Ukrainian forces moving right up to several of these locations, but they’ve been unable to dislodge Russian troops and really liberate any of these points.

In large part that’s because the roads are separated by areas of dense woods where Russia has set up defensive positions to shoot at armor along the roads, and trip wires / mines to prevent infantry advancing through the trees. Ukraine is reportedly clearing out these wooded areas, and it is reportedly taking time.

 

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A New Jersey-based fundraising firm headed by the daughter of prominent Rabbi Shmuley Boteach filed a lawsuit in federal court on Friday alleging that Dr. Mehmet Oz’s U.S. Senate campaign stole a list of predominately Jewish donors and then cheated them out of their commission.

Light Nation Media, LLC, and its head, Shterny Glick, claim that the Oz campaign signed a fundraising contract “with an ulterior motive” of accessing a large network of “established donors to political and other causes drawn from the American Jewish community” to help fund his bid for a United States Senate seat in Pennsylvania.

“It was no secret that plaintiff’s list of established donors to political and other causes was drawn almost exclusively from the American Jewish community. Such potential donors were well known for generously supporting political candidates sympathetic to Israel, and other issues dear to the Jewish community,” the lawsuit states.

In a filing with the U.S. District Court in New Jersey, the Teaneck firm claims that Oz and other entities backing his campaign have raised millions from the list, without paying the 5% commission they had agreed to in a December 2021 contract. The firm estimates the loss of commissions to be “hundreds of thousands of dollars.”

The lawsuit alleges that after being hired late last year, Glick “immediately began working tirelessly with her contacts, many of whom were family friends and communal contacts, in an effort to garner financial and political support for Dr. Oz and his campaign within the American Jewish community.”

Oz, the lawsuit claims, had committed to providing Glick with policy papers demonstrating his support for the Jewish community and Israel, but never did. In a call last February, Oz fired Glick.

“Glick realized that Dr. Oz never had an actual desire to cooperate with her in her capacity as a fundraiser,” the lawsuit states. “Instead, Dr. Oz purposefully obstructed Plaintiff’s ability to perform pursuant to the Agreement by withholding his official campaign position on the State of Israel and other topics of particular interest to the American Jewish community.”

Boteach, an early Oz supporter, has bashed the TV doctor recently.....

 

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If Trump announces a 2024 run, the DOJ may announce a special counsel to investigate him​

Mark Sumner

It can definitely be confusing trying to keep up with all the various ways that Donald Trump is in legal trouble. There’s the investigation in Georgia looking into intimidation of state officials and selection of false electors. There’s the investigation in New York that’s focused primarily on the Trump Organization's tax fraud schemes. And there are two main investigations being handled by the Department of Justice: one into the theft and mishandling of classified documents found at Mar-a-Lago, the other looking at Trump’s involvement in attempts to overturn the 2020 election and in creating the violence of Jan. 6.

As Trump lays down hint after hint that he will run again in 2024 (spoiler alert: he will), the DOJ is faced with something of a dilemma in determining how to handle, at the very least, two major investigations into not just a former occupant of the White House, but an announced candidate. This is further complicated by a Republican Party which is already screaming about defunding the DOJ and FBI — because they’re all in favor of law enforcement, as long as it isn’t being enforced against anyone they know.

Now CNN reports that, should Trump finally pull the trigger and make an official announcement, the DOJ may respond by appointing a special counsel who would roll up all the investigations against Trump into one operation. At the same time, they’re also lining up some of their most experienced prosecutors for what happens after the midterms—which could include federal indictments against Trump and others.
.......
Since James Comey is not there to deploy his very select view of what constitutes the right thing, and override both his superiors and departmental guidelines, the DOJ has been staying quiet in the run up to the midterms. Frustratingly quiet, considering that not only Trump, but a number of Republican candidates at all levels, have connections with the January 6 investigation and with other efforts to overthrow democracy.

However, according to CNN, the gears continue to turn behind the scenes. Investigators have reportedly “remained busy, using aggressive grand jury subpoenas and secret court battles to compel testimony from witnesses in both the investigation into Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election and his alleged mishandling of national security documents kept at his Palm Beach home.”

Both investigators and prosecutors are reportedly poised for a “burst” of activity as soon as the midterm results roll in. Even though hundreds of those who stormed the Capitol have now been sentenced, and the sedition trial of the Proud Boys leaders is underway (as Brandi Buchman has been covering live from the courthouse), the DOJ team handling Jan. 6 is said to be expanding.

Grand juries dealing with both Jan. 6 and the theft of the Mar-a-Lago materials are still seated, and there have been a steady stream of familiar faces making appearances. It can be expected that some of them, as with former Devin Nunes’ aide Kash Patel’s testimony before the House select committee this week, have been given limited immunity to compel their testimony. Others may have already agreed to a plea. Still more may be waiting for issues surrounding executive privilege to finally be wiped away.

The U.S. could well see Republicans elected or reelected to office in the coming week, only to have that result be immediately followed by an indictment on serious charges related to a conspiracy against the United States — which is a good reason that the DOJ’s unevenly applied “pre election window” is both harmful, and on this occasion, silly.

Charges against additional Republican officials could only accelerate attempts by Republicans to cut the funding of the DOJ. Should the GOP gain control of the House, they will also certainly attempt to slow and interfere in those investigations by launching their own hearings into the DOJ and leaking information vital to any criminal proceedings.

Against all this, Attorney General Merrick Garland faces a big decision on how to go forward. A special counsel might help provide another level of insulation, especially if Republicans attempt to use the House as an instrument to defeat the investigation of crimes.

 

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Russia Reactivates Its Trolls and Bots Ahead of Tuesday’s Midterms

Researchers have identified a series of Russian information operations to influence American elections and, perhaps, erode support for Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

.....The campaign — using accounts that pose as enraged Americans like Nora Berka — have added fuel to the most divisive political and cultural issues in the country today.

It has specifically targeted Democratic candidates in the most contested races, including the Senate seats up for grabs in Ohio, Arizona and Pennsylvania, calculating that a Republican majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives could help the Russian war effort.

The campaigns show not only how vulnerable the American political system remains to foreign manipulation but also how purveyors of disinformation have evolved and adapted to efforts by the major social media platforms to remove or play down false or deceptive content.

Last month, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency issued an alert warning of the threat of disinformation spread by “dark web media channels, online journals, messaging applications, spoofed websites, emails, text messages and fake online personas.” The disinformation could include claims that voting data or results had been hacked or compromised......

 

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Ukraine Update: Russian naval infantry decimated at Pavlivka in stunning defeat​

kos

We haven’t talked much about Pavlivka before (prewar population: 1,000)

Pavlivka is located in a grinding part of the front. Russia has occupied the purple territory on this map since 2014, so you can see the general lack of progress pushing westward since the war began. Most of those red gains have come from the south, up from Mariupol.

This line hasn’t budged very much since the Spring, yet Russia seems very interested in this area of late, so what’s at play? Perhaps it’s logistics:

The green is railways

With the destruction of the rail line on the Kerch Bridge into Crimea (which still hasn't been repaired), Russia is currently struggling to supply Kherson and occupied territory in southeastern Ukraine via rail. The rail connection between Mariupol and the rest of that region is currently under fire control of Ukrainian tube artillery. The magenta ring is the range of M777 tube artillery using standard-range rounds—21 kilometers, or 13 miles.

Still, that entire east-west rail line is currently in range of HIMARS rockets, as well as extended-range howitzers and speciality rounds. A French Caesar self-propelled artillery gun has a firing range of 42 kilometers (26 miles), so Ukraine would only be slightly inconvenienced by any Russian gains along that front. That rail line isn’t becoming operational any time soon.

Despite that, Russia launched a massive attack on the settlement sometime around October 30-31. First video of the battle was this video:



This is called the “flying tank man” video, as a body is thrown upon the tank’s detonation. This drone view of the ambush shows it more clearly, so click at your own discretion. The good thing about that linked video is that it gave the geolocators the material they needed to do their work.



The attacks came head-on from the south. “Killbox” is the right word. Look at this video compilation of Russian armor decimated in that approach:



Early last week, Russian sources were claiming victory. And we do know that Russian forces did eventually push their way into the town. But it wasn’t long before the tone from Russian sources was turning sour, as one Russian Telegram source reported:

You know, there were persistent rumors "around the city" that,
just like in the Great Patriotic War, the commander who takes
Ugledar [Vuledar] will be given a Hero. Now, they say the same thing, but we are already talking about Pavlovka, which I remember was already "cleaned up", but something went wrong. In reality, they entered the outskirts and that's it, the process stalled, in general the situation is clear: "pull-push" will continue for quite a long time and, most likely, without particular success. Why does this happen? The mobilization in Russia has passed, the forces are now available, right? The answer is simple: it's on the chest. A harsh answer, but a true one, and the village we are talking about is actually Pavlovka.

Actually, Russia got through Ukrainian lines, deeper than the “outskirts.” Here are Ukrainian forces celebrating the capture of a Russian tank with the engine still running inside the town, reportedly its center:



We also know, from Russian reports, that Ukrainian forces counterattacked and trapped a significant contingent of naval infantry troops inside the town. Here’s a report from Russian milblogger Alexey Sukonkin:

Events in Pavlivka, however, continue to develop. Participants say that at present there is a dilemma: in order to withdraw exhausted units from Pavlivka, fresh ones must be brought in. There are no fresh units, no opportunity to withdraw and replace, because everything is under fire from Uhledar and other directions. And the enemy continues to methodically level Pavlova to the ground with artillery. What to do?
And this question should be asked to those who started this
bloody mess.

Here is video of Ukrainian infantry sweeping through the village during its recapture, likely clearing it of those trapped Russian marines:



(Ignore the “94 kilometers from Mariupol” thing, making it sound as if these were new Ukrainian gains. This had always been Ukrainian held territory.)

And here is visual evidence that Pavlivka is clear of Russian presence:



As a result of this slaughter, Pavlivka now has a new distinction—it is the graveyard of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet. Furious members of that unit have written this letter widely circulating through Russian Telegram.

Full letter from the soldiers of the 155th Marine Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet addressed to the Governor of Primorsky Krai:
"Dear Oleg Nikolaevich. The Marines of the 155th Marine Brigade are appeal to you. Once again, General Muradov and his fellow countryman Akhmedov threw us into an incomprehensible offensive in order for Muradov to earn bonuses from Gerasimov, and Muradov promised to Akhmedov the Hero of Russia award.
As a result, us and Kamchatka marines are advancing on Pavlivka. As a result of the "carefully" planned offensive by the "great commanders", we lost about 300 people killed, wounded and missing in 4 days. 50 percent of vehicles. This is just our brigade. The command of the district, together with Akhmedov, hide this and replace the official figures of losses for fear of responsibility.
How are they planning to capture the settlement by slipping through the tree plantations in which the enemy remained, now destroying our guys on the wounded evacuation and ammunition supply routes? In addition, Pavlivka is lower than Uhledar, they're striking us from the latter.
Oleg Nikolaevich, Primorye people! For how long will such mediocrities like Muradov and Akhmedov be planning military operations for the sake of their reports and receiving awards at the cost of the lives of so many people? They don't care about anything but demonstrating themselves. They call people meat.
We ask you to turn to the Supreme Commander so that they would send a commission, not from the Ministry of Defense where Muradov is protected by Gerasimov, but an independent one. Let them be asked about the purpose of such actions, their supply, and the results, without any embellishment.
How long can we endure this?

300 killed, wounded, and missing! For context, a full-strength naval infantry brigade has around 2,000 men and at least a couple of hundred vehicles. There is zero chance this unit was at full strength. So whatever was left of it was utterly decimated.

It’s cute that they think anyone is interested in a “commission.” Russian military blogger Alexander Khodakovsky, with over 628,000 followers on Telegram, isn’t happy.

Still, eight years in the war and next to the war sharpen intuition and improve understanding of the military space - my fears about Pavlovka were not in vain. I am making a proposal: to keep the design of the star of the hero of the DPR for the Russian award series, and to hand it over in cases where the market situation requires it, but when the military leader has accomplished a "feat", the "game" from which "manufacturing" is not worth it. For Pavlovka, just such a star - with a black stripe - should be awarded to the generator of this operation - as a sign of special distinction.

WarGonzo:

Everything is objectively bad in Pavlovka The first joy from the fact that the Donbass special forces of the OBTF and the Cascade went there was replaced by extremely depressing news about the situation of the 155th brigade of the Pacific Fleet. Khodakovsky openly runs into those who planned the operation (so far without names). A colleague and our military "father" Sladkov reports painful losses and the appeal of marines from the 155th to the leadership of the Moscow Region. We are waiting for specifics and organizational conclusions.

Pavlivka may explain, in large part, those gaudy Russian losses claimed by Ukraine in recent days. And given the fury in a Russian Telegram scene already under extreme pressure from Moscow censors, this may reverberate deeply inside Russian itself.

 

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Сотни погибших: под Макеевкой уничтожен батальон мобилизованных из Воронежской области - Вёрстка

Родственники мобилизованных из Воронежской области заявляют о брошенных на передовую солдатах, огромных потерях и бежавшем командовании в боях под Сватово

verstka.media

 

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