More to ignore, Book 51..........
- Thread starter Ten Thousan Marbles
- Start date
Ukraine update: What we learned from the first day of Russia's big Donbas offensive
kos
Trench warfare in the Donbas region. These guys are getting hammered right now.
Season two of Putin’s war in Ukraine is now underway, and while it’s early, we’re starting to get an idea of Russia’s designs. Say goodbye to a push toward Dnipro (the notion was idiotic), and so long pipe-dream pincer—a 200-kilometre attempted encirclement of Ukrainian defensive positions on the eastern Donbas front—that was stupid too. What we’re getting instead is the same shit from the last eight years: direct attacks on the entire Donbas front lines. It looks like this:
Not only is the entire front under pressure, but the Izyum salient is pushing toward Slovyansk (pre-war population 111,000), and Kramtorsk (population 157,000). The pincer maneuver would’ve aimed to cut off Ukraine resupplies to this entire region, starving a third of Ukraine’s army into submission. Perhaps after Mariupol, which still hasn’t fallen, Russia decided that would take too long—parades must be marched on May 9 after all. So Russian troops are gunning for the region’s two major population and cultural centers, cutting them off from supplies, and maybe attempting a Mariupol-style operation to take them.
For once, a Russian move doesn’t appear utterly idiotic. This is what they should’ve done at the start of the war when they were at full strength. Russia can’t maintain long supply lines. This minimizes that deficiency while also making them less vulnerable to Ukrainian artillery hitting them hard from the west. And broad pressure across a wide line means they can keep doing their small-scale advances without having to figure out how to mass forces for a major singular push. In other words, it’s making lemonade out of lemons.
The amount of territory exchanging hands was minimal, but of course it’s early.
So Russia is making the best of the hand it’s been dealt, but let’s talk about that hand, because … it’s still not great.
Russia began the war with 120-130 battalion tactical groups (BTG), which have a paper strength of 800-1,000 troops, 1,200 tanks, and around 5,000 infantry fighting vehicles. We’ve discussed at length how most BTGs showed up understrength, and how few soldiers in a BTG are actually combat troops (230, to be exact). The problem has only gotten worse as the war has attritted unit strength (dead, wounded, and destroyed equipment), and soldiers desert and outright refuse to redeploy after fighting in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Sumy regions. Russia has lost at least 519 tanks and 838 armored fighting vehicles. Those are just publicly available, visually confirmed losses, which means the real number is even higher. So unbelievably, Russia has lost around half the tanks they likely started with, and those were their best, most modern tanks. The stuff coming in from reserve piles is 1960s crap.
The Pentagon thinks another 22 BTGs are currently being rebuilt/retrofitted outside of Ukraine, and another 12 around Mariupol (though the open source intelligence community has only been able to identify around six).
You look at those numbers, and wow, that sounds like a lot! Yet 22 are still hypothetical units, not engaged. Ukraine claims many of these units are refusing orders to deploy, and they’ve released intercepted calls supporting that assessment. Whether it’s six or 12 around Mariupol, they’re still stuck there trying to deal with only 1-2,000 remaining Ukrainian defenders, in a massive city-sized factory literally designed to withstand a nuclear attack (no joke).
So for now, as the big offensive gets underway, we’re talking 76 BTGs. At full strength, that would be 760 tanks, 3,000 infantry fighting vehicles, and 17,480 soldiers. Of course, we’ve seen Russia put all manner of unqualified, untrained soldiers in vehicles, so let’s assume double that were thrown into the wood chipper: that’s still only about 35,000 troops trying to take and hold an area that is hundreds of square miles, with deeply entrenched and protected defensive positions. (If I were Russia, I’d station a garrison outside the factory and move everything else to the north. Not worth the lives, equipment, and effort to root out Ukrainians when they’re cornered in this pocket.)
Of course, we know know that Russia isn’t fielding full-strength BTGs. They never did—the entire concept of the BTG was designed by grifters to make it easier to pilfer material and money—a regiment kept one BTG ready for missions like Syria and stole from the other two for villas, dachas, and vodka. The Russian army was ill equipped to send 120-130 of its total 170 at the start of the war. It’s even worse now. Take this video, for example:
It’s not a gigantic column. It’s a BTG. Except that instead of 40 IFVs, I counted 30 or so. No tanks when it’s supposed to have 10. And as you can see, there are lots of supply trucks, so no matter how many soldiers they force into combat roles from the supply teams, they can’t get them all on the front lines. They need to ferry fuel, ammo, and supplies. They need their mechanics and other maintenance people alive to fix broken gear. Too bad we can’t count soldiers, but already, this BTG is below combat strength (it has lost over a third of its vehicles even before it reaches the front). Not that Russia cares, since it’s just throwing them into frontal assaults without thought of tactics.
With enough artillery, air support, and frontal assaults, Russia might finally punch through some of the prepared lines. Seems kind of inevitable, actually. Then what? They fight their way to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk and once again find what they’ve found in every city of any significant size: Russia doesn’t know how to do urban warfare, and a small, outgunned defensive garrison can tie up Russian forces nearly indefinitely.
The two cities will be reduced to rubble, that we can assume. But that doesn’t end resistance. In fact, it gives defenders more places to hide and ambush the enemy. And these two towns are not Mariupol, isolated, deep in the country’s southeast corner, far from friendly lines. There’s an entire Ukrainian army breathing down their necks just on the western edge of the Donbas region. By most estimates, one-third of the Ukrainian army is in Donbas, which means that most of the rest is right outside the door, preparing to engage.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is on the offensive around Kharkiv, threatening Russia’s supply lines. It looks like this:
Two major rail lines from Russia converge at Kupiansk, as well as another from the Russian-occupied east. Take that out, and that entire Izyum salient is in trouble. Of course Russia is attempting to connect that salient with Russian-held territory in the east, but even if they connect, losing direct access from Russia will dramatically reduce Russia’s abilities to resupply that entire area, and bottleneck their supply lines into fewer roads—both slowing down the pace of supply (traffic jams), and making those convoys easier ambush targets.
My guess is that Kupiansk is too valuable to lose, and Russia will have to move troops north to protect those supply lines. That’s called “fixing the enemy in place.” Every BTG babysitting their supply lines north of the Izyum salient is one less BTG on the offensive down south, just like every BTG trying to dislodge Ukraine from the Azovstal steel plant is one less BTG pushing north.
Please note that I write these late at night before going to bed, Pacific time. Lots can change by the time the morning crew publishes this live. We are definitely in “fog of war” territory here, so I’m using the best available information at the time I write this. On Tuesday, I’ll be digging for details on the specific attacks: Is Russia attacking with larger force, or are they still limited to one or two BTGs per attack? Also, word is that Ukrainian artillery reinforcements are making it to the east in time to engage. Will we see some of the results? If true, that’ll make things particularly unpleasant for Russians on the Izyum salient. I’ll be paying close attention to Kharkiv and whether Ukraine pushes that attack, and whether Russia rushes defensive troops to protect their lines.
As for Kherson down south, Russia is laying down a wall of artillery, preventing Ukrainian forces—lacking sufficient armor and artillery of their own—from traversing that wide-open exposed terrain. I suspect Ukraine will prioritize the eastern Donbas front over Kherson’s liberation for the time being. Still, Ukraine continues to reportedly roll back Russian forces from the Kryvyi Rih approach. The little white circles (look like dots) I circled below are all settlements liberated in the last few days.
One last thought: Russia must really be freaked out about arriving Western arms shipments and Putin’s May 9 deadline, because this attack is coming at a really shitty time: spring rainy season. While the forecast is showing less rain than it did yesterday, it’s still wet season, preventing the ground from drying out.
Russia’s heavy equipment will need to either stay on roads, where they are easy to ambush and target with artillery, or they risk a losing confrontation with General Mud. Not that any of the good guys are complaining, however. Ukraine could use all the help it can get.
kos
Trench warfare in the Donbas region. These guys are getting hammered right now.
Season two of Putin’s war in Ukraine is now underway, and while it’s early, we’re starting to get an idea of Russia’s designs. Say goodbye to a push toward Dnipro (the notion was idiotic), and so long pipe-dream pincer—a 200-kilometre attempted encirclement of Ukrainian defensive positions on the eastern Donbas front—that was stupid too. What we’re getting instead is the same shit from the last eight years: direct attacks on the entire Donbas front lines. It looks like this:
Not only is the entire front under pressure, but the Izyum salient is pushing toward Slovyansk (pre-war population 111,000), and Kramtorsk (population 157,000). The pincer maneuver would’ve aimed to cut off Ukraine resupplies to this entire region, starving a third of Ukraine’s army into submission. Perhaps after Mariupol, which still hasn’t fallen, Russia decided that would take too long—parades must be marched on May 9 after all. So Russian troops are gunning for the region’s two major population and cultural centers, cutting them off from supplies, and maybe attempting a Mariupol-style operation to take them.
For once, a Russian move doesn’t appear utterly idiotic. This is what they should’ve done at the start of the war when they were at full strength. Russia can’t maintain long supply lines. This minimizes that deficiency while also making them less vulnerable to Ukrainian artillery hitting them hard from the west. And broad pressure across a wide line means they can keep doing their small-scale advances without having to figure out how to mass forces for a major singular push. In other words, it’s making lemonade out of lemons.
The amount of territory exchanging hands was minimal, but of course it’s early.
So Russia is making the best of the hand it’s been dealt, but let’s talk about that hand, because … it’s still not great.
Russia began the war with 120-130 battalion tactical groups (BTG), which have a paper strength of 800-1,000 troops, 1,200 tanks, and around 5,000 infantry fighting vehicles. We’ve discussed at length how most BTGs showed up understrength, and how few soldiers in a BTG are actually combat troops (230, to be exact). The problem has only gotten worse as the war has attritted unit strength (dead, wounded, and destroyed equipment), and soldiers desert and outright refuse to redeploy after fighting in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Sumy regions. Russia has lost at least 519 tanks and 838 armored fighting vehicles. Those are just publicly available, visually confirmed losses, which means the real number is even higher. So unbelievably, Russia has lost around half the tanks they likely started with, and those were their best, most modern tanks. The stuff coming in from reserve piles is 1960s crap.
The Pentagon thinks another 22 BTGs are currently being rebuilt/retrofitted outside of Ukraine, and another 12 around Mariupol (though the open source intelligence community has only been able to identify around six).
You look at those numbers, and wow, that sounds like a lot! Yet 22 are still hypothetical units, not engaged. Ukraine claims many of these units are refusing orders to deploy, and they’ve released intercepted calls supporting that assessment. Whether it’s six or 12 around Mariupol, they’re still stuck there trying to deal with only 1-2,000 remaining Ukrainian defenders, in a massive city-sized factory literally designed to withstand a nuclear attack (no joke).
So for now, as the big offensive gets underway, we’re talking 76 BTGs. At full strength, that would be 760 tanks, 3,000 infantry fighting vehicles, and 17,480 soldiers. Of course, we’ve seen Russia put all manner of unqualified, untrained soldiers in vehicles, so let’s assume double that were thrown into the wood chipper: that’s still only about 35,000 troops trying to take and hold an area that is hundreds of square miles, with deeply entrenched and protected defensive positions. (If I were Russia, I’d station a garrison outside the factory and move everything else to the north. Not worth the lives, equipment, and effort to root out Ukrainians when they’re cornered in this pocket.)
Of course, we know know that Russia isn’t fielding full-strength BTGs. They never did—the entire concept of the BTG was designed by grifters to make it easier to pilfer material and money—a regiment kept one BTG ready for missions like Syria and stole from the other two for villas, dachas, and vodka. The Russian army was ill equipped to send 120-130 of its total 170 at the start of the war. It’s even worse now. Take this video, for example:
It’s not a gigantic column. It’s a BTG. Except that instead of 40 IFVs, I counted 30 or so. No tanks when it’s supposed to have 10. And as you can see, there are lots of supply trucks, so no matter how many soldiers they force into combat roles from the supply teams, they can’t get them all on the front lines. They need to ferry fuel, ammo, and supplies. They need their mechanics and other maintenance people alive to fix broken gear. Too bad we can’t count soldiers, but already, this BTG is below combat strength (it has lost over a third of its vehicles even before it reaches the front). Not that Russia cares, since it’s just throwing them into frontal assaults without thought of tactics.
With enough artillery, air support, and frontal assaults, Russia might finally punch through some of the prepared lines. Seems kind of inevitable, actually. Then what? They fight their way to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk and once again find what they’ve found in every city of any significant size: Russia doesn’t know how to do urban warfare, and a small, outgunned defensive garrison can tie up Russian forces nearly indefinitely.
The two cities will be reduced to rubble, that we can assume. But that doesn’t end resistance. In fact, it gives defenders more places to hide and ambush the enemy. And these two towns are not Mariupol, isolated, deep in the country’s southeast corner, far from friendly lines. There’s an entire Ukrainian army breathing down their necks just on the western edge of the Donbas region. By most estimates, one-third of the Ukrainian army is in Donbas, which means that most of the rest is right outside the door, preparing to engage.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is on the offensive around Kharkiv, threatening Russia’s supply lines. It looks like this:
Two major rail lines from Russia converge at Kupiansk, as well as another from the Russian-occupied east. Take that out, and that entire Izyum salient is in trouble. Of course Russia is attempting to connect that salient with Russian-held territory in the east, but even if they connect, losing direct access from Russia will dramatically reduce Russia’s abilities to resupply that entire area, and bottleneck their supply lines into fewer roads—both slowing down the pace of supply (traffic jams), and making those convoys easier ambush targets.
My guess is that Kupiansk is too valuable to lose, and Russia will have to move troops north to protect those supply lines. That’s called “fixing the enemy in place.” Every BTG babysitting their supply lines north of the Izyum salient is one less BTG on the offensive down south, just like every BTG trying to dislodge Ukraine from the Azovstal steel plant is one less BTG pushing north.
Please note that I write these late at night before going to bed, Pacific time. Lots can change by the time the morning crew publishes this live. We are definitely in “fog of war” territory here, so I’m using the best available information at the time I write this. On Tuesday, I’ll be digging for details on the specific attacks: Is Russia attacking with larger force, or are they still limited to one or two BTGs per attack? Also, word is that Ukrainian artillery reinforcements are making it to the east in time to engage. Will we see some of the results? If true, that’ll make things particularly unpleasant for Russians on the Izyum salient. I’ll be paying close attention to Kharkiv and whether Ukraine pushes that attack, and whether Russia rushes defensive troops to protect their lines.
As for Kherson down south, Russia is laying down a wall of artillery, preventing Ukrainian forces—lacking sufficient armor and artillery of their own—from traversing that wide-open exposed terrain. I suspect Ukraine will prioritize the eastern Donbas front over Kherson’s liberation for the time being. Still, Ukraine continues to reportedly roll back Russian forces from the Kryvyi Rih approach. The little white circles (look like dots) I circled below are all settlements liberated in the last few days.
One last thought: Russia must really be freaked out about arriving Western arms shipments and Putin’s May 9 deadline, because this attack is coming at a really shitty time: spring rainy season. While the forecast is showing less rain than it did yesterday, it’s still wet season, preventing the ground from drying out.
Russia’s heavy equipment will need to either stay on roads, where they are easy to ambush and target with artillery, or they risk a losing confrontation with General Mud. Not that any of the good guys are complaining, however. Ukraine could use all the help it can get.
Tuesday, Apr 19, 2022 · 9:45:38 AM EDT · Mark Sumner
Popasna is the town we talked about last week — just 2 miles of open fields separating it from the Russian-occupied positions in Pervomaisk that they have held for 8 years. In the first two days of their new major attack, Russia has been unable to advance through the existing defensive lines at this town, or at many others.
Popasna is the town we talked about last week — just 2 miles of open fields separating it from the Russian-occupied positions in Pervomaisk that they have held for 8 years. In the first two days of their new major attack, Russia has been unable to advance through the existing defensive lines at this town, or at many others.
MSNBC’s Malcolm Nance Joins Fight Against Russia In Ukraine: ‘I’m Done Talking’
The network analyst said he had joined a foreign military unit of Ukraine's armed forces.
“They massacre men, women and children, and that is the reason everyone [in the legion] is here.”
He appealed directly to President Joe Biden for “counter-battery long-range artillery” to guard civilians against rocket attacks.
“Russia has one advantage on the battlefield, and that is long range artillery,” he said.
After serving in the Navy, Nance, 61, began appearing on MSNBC and other national news networks as an intelligence and terrorism expert and foreign policy analyst. He has written several books on those subjects......
Trump's loving every minute of kneecapping Republicans' midterm chances
Kerry Elevel
Mere weeks after Donald Trump sicced his cultists on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, Republicans began showing up at Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort to pledge their undying loyalty to the man who put the lives of U.S. lawmakers on the line in a desperate bid to overturn his loser status.
Republicans, including some who had feared for their lives that day, just couldn't get enough Trump as they sought the upper hand in the next election cycle. They eagerly shelled out cash at his property, hoping to score an appearance at their event or, god willing, a supposed golden-ticket endorsement from the man who sought to end American democracy.
Trump's political operation has since amassed more than $120 million. "Federal records show that his PAC raised more online than the party on every day but two in the last six months of 2021, one of which was Christmas Eve,” according to The New York Times.
......
Now, some 15 months into the 2022 cycle, Trump is stronger than ever as he whimsically drops bomb after bomb onto an electoral landscape that, left alone, would undoubtedly favor the GOP based on historical trends alone.
Trump's latest direct hit came over the weekend in Ohio, where he endorsed "Hillbilly Elegy" author JD Vance in the GOP primary for an open Senate seat. Trump made his move after a harried effort by Vance's rivals, GOP party chairs, and politicos to convince the trigger-happy meddler to keep his powder dry.
Sorry, all, bombs away! Then Trump quit taking phone calls, dodging the blowback from the havoc he'd wrought.
Trump knew the drill: He was fresh off stirring up a similar shitstorm in Pennsylvania with his second toxic primary endorsement for the state's open Senate seat (his first went down in flames). The difference in the Keystone State is that Democrats have a decent chance of picking up a Senate seat there, and Trump's ceaseless tinkering is helping them every step of the way. But hey, let’s not count out Democratic chances in Ohio either, especially with Trump running interference.
But even as Republican strategists pull their hair out, Trump flits merrily about.
“I’m a gambler,” Trump told one aide about wading into the Pennsylvania primary a second time—this time to endorse fellow TV huckster Dr. Mehmet Oz.
Plus, Trump "likes endorsing against candidates, advisers say, just to see their numbers go down," according to The Washington Post. Who could have ever guessed the guy who orchestrated a deadly coup attempt to stay in power would turn out to be such a sadist?
But as such, Trump has exactly nothing to lose this cycle. If Republicans fail to convert in either the House or Senate, he will simply blame them for not being subservient enough to him. In fact, it's patently obvious Trump would love nothing more than to saddle Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell with defeat after expectations had been so high.
Trump couldn't care less. The Republican Party, control of Congress, and individual candidates mean nothing to him. The only thing that matters to Trump is undying loyalty, and he'll gladly destroy anything or anyone who isn't meeting his insatiable expectations.
Just ask the guy who once wore body armor on Jan. 6 as he did his level best to help incite Trump's coup. Trump had endorsed Rep. Mo Brooks of Alabama for that state's open Senate seat until such time as it looked like he was turning into a loser. Instead of sticking by his guy as his candidacy faltered, Trump capriciously pulled the rug out from under Brooks.
Right on cue, Trump blamed Brooks' faltering campaign on what he perceived as Brooks' softening loyalty to him.
“The reason he went down is he got off the 2020 election fraud,” Trump told the Post in an interview.
Brooks hit back after Trump's endorsement of Oz, which has confounded Keystone State Republicans across the spectrum.
“This is happening because Trump’s surrounded himself by staff who are on McConnell’s payroll & hostile to the MAGA agenda. Everybody telling Trump who to endorse in primaries works for The Swamp,” Brooks tweeted. “They played him. Again.”
The notion that Trump has surrounded himself with McConnell staffers is sheer fantasy.
But Brooks is right about the swamp—the swamp Trump generated from his White House perch is indeed playing him.
But as long as Trump can watch someone else’s poll numbers plummet after he endorses their rival, who cares? Trump's just pocketing the cash, drinking in the sycophancy, and reveling in his thrilling game of Battleship, one candidate at a time, as Republican Party operatives hold their breath and brace for impact.
They built that.
Kerry Elevel
Mere weeks after Donald Trump sicced his cultists on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, Republicans began showing up at Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort to pledge their undying loyalty to the man who put the lives of U.S. lawmakers on the line in a desperate bid to overturn his loser status.
Republicans, including some who had feared for their lives that day, just couldn't get enough Trump as they sought the upper hand in the next election cycle. They eagerly shelled out cash at his property, hoping to score an appearance at their event or, god willing, a supposed golden-ticket endorsement from the man who sought to end American democracy.
Trump's political operation has since amassed more than $120 million. "Federal records show that his PAC raised more online than the party on every day but two in the last six months of 2021, one of which was Christmas Eve,” according to The New York Times.
......
Now, some 15 months into the 2022 cycle, Trump is stronger than ever as he whimsically drops bomb after bomb onto an electoral landscape that, left alone, would undoubtedly favor the GOP based on historical trends alone.
Trump's latest direct hit came over the weekend in Ohio, where he endorsed "Hillbilly Elegy" author JD Vance in the GOP primary for an open Senate seat. Trump made his move after a harried effort by Vance's rivals, GOP party chairs, and politicos to convince the trigger-happy meddler to keep his powder dry.
Sorry, all, bombs away! Then Trump quit taking phone calls, dodging the blowback from the havoc he'd wrought.
Trump knew the drill: He was fresh off stirring up a similar shitstorm in Pennsylvania with his second toxic primary endorsement for the state's open Senate seat (his first went down in flames). The difference in the Keystone State is that Democrats have a decent chance of picking up a Senate seat there, and Trump's ceaseless tinkering is helping them every step of the way. But hey, let’s not count out Democratic chances in Ohio either, especially with Trump running interference.
But even as Republican strategists pull their hair out, Trump flits merrily about.
“I’m a gambler,” Trump told one aide about wading into the Pennsylvania primary a second time—this time to endorse fellow TV huckster Dr. Mehmet Oz.
Plus, Trump "likes endorsing against candidates, advisers say, just to see their numbers go down," according to The Washington Post. Who could have ever guessed the guy who orchestrated a deadly coup attempt to stay in power would turn out to be such a sadist?
But as such, Trump has exactly nothing to lose this cycle. If Republicans fail to convert in either the House or Senate, he will simply blame them for not being subservient enough to him. In fact, it's patently obvious Trump would love nothing more than to saddle Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell with defeat after expectations had been so high.
Trump couldn't care less. The Republican Party, control of Congress, and individual candidates mean nothing to him. The only thing that matters to Trump is undying loyalty, and he'll gladly destroy anything or anyone who isn't meeting his insatiable expectations.
Just ask the guy who once wore body armor on Jan. 6 as he did his level best to help incite Trump's coup. Trump had endorsed Rep. Mo Brooks of Alabama for that state's open Senate seat until such time as it looked like he was turning into a loser. Instead of sticking by his guy as his candidacy faltered, Trump capriciously pulled the rug out from under Brooks.
Right on cue, Trump blamed Brooks' faltering campaign on what he perceived as Brooks' softening loyalty to him.
“The reason he went down is he got off the 2020 election fraud,” Trump told the Post in an interview.
Brooks hit back after Trump's endorsement of Oz, which has confounded Keystone State Republicans across the spectrum.
“This is happening because Trump’s surrounded himself by staff who are on McConnell’s payroll & hostile to the MAGA agenda. Everybody telling Trump who to endorse in primaries works for The Swamp,” Brooks tweeted. “They played him. Again.”
The notion that Trump has surrounded himself with McConnell staffers is sheer fantasy.
But Brooks is right about the swamp—the swamp Trump generated from his White House perch is indeed playing him.
But as long as Trump can watch someone else’s poll numbers plummet after he endorses their rival, who cares? Trump's just pocketing the cash, drinking in the sycophancy, and reveling in his thrilling game of Battleship, one candidate at a time, as Republican Party operatives hold their breath and brace for impact.
They built that.
GOP civil war: conservative outlet reports Madison Cawthorn’s outrageous spending of taxpayer money
Walter Einenkel
Republican Rep. Madison Cawthorn has been a busy bee these past few weeks. The blaring drone of his misinformation madness machine (aka his mouth), usually reserved for simply telling vacuous lies, has been cranked up to slander of late. His relentless pathological need to say anything and everything in order to glorify himself has led him to slander his own political party. Whether these moves by Rep.Cawthorn are a desperate attempt at boosting fundraising numbers remains to be seen.
Recently, the youngest GOP fiscal conservative hypocrite has been under the microscope after his FEC campaign filings revealed his finances to be what economists would call piss poor. On Sunday, the Washington Examiner published a report on the North Carolina teller of untruths and his extravagant use of taxpayer money. According to the report, Cawthorn spent just under $5,000 on "legislative planning food and beverage” expenses over a week in August. Also during that week, he took a trip to the Skylaranna luxury mountain resort in North Carolina.
Before we go further, it is important to note here that Cawthorn was one of 174 Republicans to vote against the PACT Act at the beginning of March. This bill is set to help cover the broad range of expenses that military service members, who have been injured or poisoned during their service to our country, need in medical treatment. The Republican Party and Madison Cawthorn’s excuse for not voting to support our troops is that they would like to find a cheaper way to not deal with the military members they enjoy sending off to conflicts in foreign lands.
.......
The Examiner broke down some of the expenses accrued during the week of Aug 6-10:
- $2,950 allotted to his Skylaranna resort stay.
- $556 for four trips to local grocery stores that week.
- $491 spent at Papa’s and Beer Mexican Restaurant
- $382 worth of Chick-fil-A
- $53 at Joey’s NY Bagel
- $47 at Bojangles
The fact that this story has come through a conservative media outlet like the Examiner is just another example of the civil war going on within the den of thieves called the Republican Party. Cawthorn’s hyper-MAGA-style hucksterism has freaked out the more neocon established sectors of the party. That’s in part because the conservative Christian political party may be having all kinds of non-Christian-style drug-fueled orgies (if Madison is to be believed), and also because Cawthorn and other Republican members of Congress like Lauren Boebert and Paul Gosar represent a new tea party-inspired rat that has climbed aboard the sinking Republican ship. And trapped in a small space, rats will eat anything until there is only one rat left.
But to put Cawthorn’s expenses into perspective, the Washington Examiner gave an easy-to-understand comparison of Madison’s frivolousness—even in his own craven and corrupt political party:
In a different time in our country’s history, Rep. Cawthorn would have been expelled from the House of Representatives so many times it would have have created new laws in our country. Excuse me for one second, Madison Just finished off a couple hundred dollars in chicken sandwiches. He just wiped his hands with a wet towlette.
It’s nice if you can have someone else pay for it. It seems like Madison thinks of those “dollars” as “HIS” dollars, not “OURS.” It is important to realize here how truly malignant a narcissist like Cawthorn is. As the Smokey Mountain News reported on Monday, a former Cawthorn staff member is filing a labor violation claim against him, saying she was fired after being “denied leave when her uncle passed away and her husband had a heart attack during the same week.”
Lisa WIggins was a former caseworker and campaign aide to Rep. Madison Cawthorn, whose complaints were legally recorded by “David Wheeler, co-founder of nonpartisan advocacy PAC American Muckrakers.” Among other things, Wiggins explains that Cawthorn has closed virtually all of his district offices, making it more than difficult for constituents to interact with their representative. She also claimed that Cawthorn’s home offices in Henderson, North Carolina, housed more liquor bottles than water bottles.
Please, Miss—may I have another?
Russian forces capture first city in battle for Donbas
Governor of Kreminna says Ukrainian troops have withdrawn after being attacked ‘from all sides’
Russian forces have seized the city of Kreminna in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region and Ukrainian troops have withdrawn from the city, the regional governor has said.
Kreminna, a city of more than 18,000 people about 350 miles (560km) south-east of the capital, Kyiv, appears to be the first city captured in a Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine.
“Kreminna is under the control of the ‘Orcs’ [Russians]. They have entered the city,” Serhiy Gaidai, the governor of the Luhansk region, told a briefing on Tuesday. “Our defenders had to withdraw. They have entrenched themselves in new positions and continue to fight the Russian army.”......
Trump's MAGA PAC is now just a slush fund for his legal bills—and it's running dry
Hunter
The news has been terrible of late, full of war and bloodshed and an unending series of American meatheads and godbotherers combing through libraries to find new books to ban, so here's a moment of actual good news to bask in for a moment. Remember Donald Trump's "Make America Great Again PAC," aka the remnants of his campaign fundraising committee? It reported yet another loss this last fundraising quarter, and at the rate things are going, it will run dry of cash in just a few more quarters.
Instead, Trump's MAGA PAC has been reduced to that most primal of all Donald Trump-adjacent schemes. It's an entity that pays Donald's legal bills so that Donald doesn't have to. The people still donating to Donald Trump can be assured that little to none of their money will be going to Make America Great Again. Nope! They're just acting as Donald's walking checkbooks.
The Daily Beast reports that MAGA PAC lost $1.2 million in 2022's first quarter, the third straight quarter of deficit. $1.1 million of that loss was "legal fees." The PAC now has roughly $5.5 million of remaining cash on hand, which means that if their fundraising efforts continue to (ahem) suck, they won't have any cash left to pay Donald's legal bills around this time next year. That's assuming that Donald does not start ordering his lawyers to screw around with challenges to whatever midterm voting totals his most devoted suck-ups convince him are "suspicious." We all know the chance of Donald not ordering spurious election challenges is approximately zero, so long as he personally doesn't have to write the checks.
It may be a way to the 2024 presidential season, but these aren't the fundraising numbers of someone who's trying to retain his status as the King of Republicanism. This is just Donald scraping up whatever's left in the cash barrels to throw towards his lawyers.
Trump continues to have a whole lot of legal expenses for a whole lot of things. He has to defend himself against evidence-gathering probes of his role in a violent assault on Congress. He's got New York investigators breathing down his neck for that whole lifetime-of-financial-crimes bit. But he's also got to pay all the lawyers filing asinine claims disputing the results of his election losses.
So yeah, there you go. It's not so much a Make America Great Again fundraising PAC as it is a Pay Donald's Legal Defenses PAC, and while there are apparently still enough Trump allies around to have given the PAC $1.4 million in donations last quarter, that's ... not a lot, right? It feels conspicuously like the whole thing's coasting on Trump voters who forgot to uncheck the "donate this amount every month" box on one of Trump's dodgy fundraising sites and now don't even know they're being charged.
There you go, then. Some genuinely good news. Donald Trump's Pay My Legal Bills PAC is running so dry that it will soon not be able to pay Donald's legal bills, all the money it is raising is coming from pro-Trump Americans who we don't have to feel bad for because they chose to be scammed of their own free will, and Donald will have to spend actual effort coming up with a new grift. Maybe he'll form a new PAC, one with blackjack and overpriced drinks. Maybe he'll turn Mar-a-Lago into an unlicensed casino.
He's fortunate he's turned the whole Republican National Committee into a cash machine for the rest of his legal bills, because with all the criminal and civil probes poking at him those bills will be going away approximately never. And maybe the even the Republican National Committee will at some point figure that out, and maybe they won't. It's no skin off our noses. If they want to spend less money on getting Republicans elected and more money on Donald Trump's personal legal grooming, who are we to object.
Hunter
The news has been terrible of late, full of war and bloodshed and an unending series of American meatheads and godbotherers combing through libraries to find new books to ban, so here's a moment of actual good news to bask in for a moment. Remember Donald Trump's "Make America Great Again PAC," aka the remnants of his campaign fundraising committee? It reported yet another loss this last fundraising quarter, and at the rate things are going, it will run dry of cash in just a few more quarters.
Instead, Trump's MAGA PAC has been reduced to that most primal of all Donald Trump-adjacent schemes. It's an entity that pays Donald's legal bills so that Donald doesn't have to. The people still donating to Donald Trump can be assured that little to none of their money will be going to Make America Great Again. Nope! They're just acting as Donald's walking checkbooks.
The Daily Beast reports that MAGA PAC lost $1.2 million in 2022's first quarter, the third straight quarter of deficit. $1.1 million of that loss was "legal fees." The PAC now has roughly $5.5 million of remaining cash on hand, which means that if their fundraising efforts continue to (ahem) suck, they won't have any cash left to pay Donald's legal bills around this time next year. That's assuming that Donald does not start ordering his lawyers to screw around with challenges to whatever midterm voting totals his most devoted suck-ups convince him are "suspicious." We all know the chance of Donald not ordering spurious election challenges is approximately zero, so long as he personally doesn't have to write the checks.
It may be a way to the 2024 presidential season, but these aren't the fundraising numbers of someone who's trying to retain his status as the King of Republicanism. This is just Donald scraping up whatever's left in the cash barrels to throw towards his lawyers.
Trump continues to have a whole lot of legal expenses for a whole lot of things. He has to defend himself against evidence-gathering probes of his role in a violent assault on Congress. He's got New York investigators breathing down his neck for that whole lifetime-of-financial-crimes bit. But he's also got to pay all the lawyers filing asinine claims disputing the results of his election losses.
So yeah, there you go. It's not so much a Make America Great Again fundraising PAC as it is a Pay Donald's Legal Defenses PAC, and while there are apparently still enough Trump allies around to have given the PAC $1.4 million in donations last quarter, that's ... not a lot, right? It feels conspicuously like the whole thing's coasting on Trump voters who forgot to uncheck the "donate this amount every month" box on one of Trump's dodgy fundraising sites and now don't even know they're being charged.
There you go, then. Some genuinely good news. Donald Trump's Pay My Legal Bills PAC is running so dry that it will soon not be able to pay Donald's legal bills, all the money it is raising is coming from pro-Trump Americans who we don't have to feel bad for because they chose to be scammed of their own free will, and Donald will have to spend actual effort coming up with a new grift. Maybe he'll form a new PAC, one with blackjack and overpriced drinks. Maybe he'll turn Mar-a-Lago into an unlicensed casino.
He's fortunate he's turned the whole Republican National Committee into a cash machine for the rest of his legal bills, because with all the criminal and civil probes poking at him those bills will be going away approximately never. And maybe the even the Republican National Committee will at some point figure that out, and maybe they won't. It's no skin off our noses. If they want to spend less money on getting Republicans elected and more money on Donald Trump's personal legal grooming, who are we to object.
Fulton County DA says Trump Election Tampering Grand Jury will begin to hear testimony June 1st
Lefty Coaster
While Attorney General Garland is taking his sweet time to hold the former president accountable for his seditious attempts to destroy our Constitutional Republic, TFG continues to undermine our democratic institutions.
It’s true, Justice delayed is justice denied.
But there is a good chance that Mr. Trump will be held accountable for his attempts at Election Tampering under state laws by a less lethargic County District Attorney in Georgia, named Fani Willis.
.......
www.ajc.com
Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis will wait until after the May 24 primaries to call in witnesses to testify about whether former President Donald Trump tried to illegally overturn election results in Georgia in 2020.
Selection of a special grand jury will begin on May 2, but the group won’t hear from witnesses until June 1, Willis said in an interview with The Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Monday.
Willis said the four-week gap would give jurors time to approve subpoenas for reluctant witnesses and for the district attorney’s office to deliver those documents into people’s hands. The veteran prosecutor also acknowledged that she’s waiting until after the primaries to avoid the perception that her actions are politically motivated, as her Republican critics allege.......
Lefty Coaster
While Attorney General Garland is taking his sweet time to hold the former president accountable for his seditious attempts to destroy our Constitutional Republic, TFG continues to undermine our democratic institutions.
It’s true, Justice delayed is justice denied.
But there is a good chance that Mr. Trump will be held accountable for his attempts at Election Tampering under state laws by a less lethargic County District Attorney in Georgia, named Fani Willis.
.......
Fulton DA clarifies timeline for witness testimony in Trump probe
Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis will wait until after the May 24 primaries to call witnesses for a special grand jury investigating whether former President Donald Trump tried to illegally overturn election results in Georgia in 2020. Several of the people Willis is likely to seek an...
Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis will wait until after the May 24 primaries to call in witnesses to testify about whether former President Donald Trump tried to illegally overturn election results in Georgia in 2020.
Selection of a special grand jury will begin on May 2, but the group won’t hear from witnesses until June 1, Willis said in an interview with The Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Monday.
Willis said the four-week gap would give jurors time to approve subpoenas for reluctant witnesses and for the district attorney’s office to deliver those documents into people’s hands. The veteran prosecutor also acknowledged that she’s waiting until after the primaries to avoid the perception that her actions are politically motivated, as her Republican critics allege.......
Trump lawyer Eastman petitions to shield 37,000 pages of Jan. 6 plotting from committee
Joan McCarter
John Eastman—he of insurrection memo fame—is petitioning to shield thousands of documents from the House Jan. 6 committee, Politico reports. Eastman filed a new petition this week in which he seeks to shield more than 3,200 documents comprising nearly 37,000 pages, claiming attorney-client privilege.
U.S. District Judge David Carter has proven unsympathetic to Eastman thus far in Eastman’s attempts to drag out the release of documents. Carter has ordered Eastman to produce at least 1,500 pages of records per day from a 19,000-page tranche obtained by a committee subpoena sent to Eastman’s ex-employer, Chapman University, and has further ordered him to prioritize emails for the days immediately before and after the Jan. 6 insurrection: Jan. 4-7.
This filing, however, is for the whole period of Eastman’s use of his Chapman account emails. There were nearly 100,000 pages originally included in the House committee’s subpoena of the records, but about 30,000 have already been removed as they were mass mailings unrelated to Eastman’s work with Trump to subvert the election.
.........
Now Eastman is attempting to shield these emails and the Jan. 6 committee has refused “every claim,” so Eastman is asking Carter for a case-by-case review on the 37,000 or so pages left. Carter has already ruled that Trump “more likely than not” attempted to illegally obstruct Congress in a criminal conspiracy in his efforts to overturn the 2020 election. “Based on the evidence, the Court finds it more likely than not that President Trump corruptly attempted to obstruct the Joint Session of Congress on January 6, 2021,” Carter wrote in a March decision.
He described the work of the committee as urgent in ordering Eastman to cough up the records, but now will have to look through this tranche of documents. The committee has questioned whether Eastman was actually acting as Trump’s lawyer that early, making his claim for attorney-client privilege at that point moot. Carter’s determination that Eastman was eventually Trump’s attorney puts all this in the chunk of stuff that needs to be reviewed page by page.
Ultimately, though, Eastman now has 3,200 documents that he refuses to turn over, which is not suspicious at all.
“Defendants made no objection to Dr. Eastman’s claims of privilege over 643 documents totaling 3,006 pages, but did object to every claim of attorney-client privilege and work-product protection that Dr. Eastman asserted with respect to his representation of former President Trump and/or his campaign committee,” Eastman’s attorney, Charles Burnham, wrote in this request to Carter. “Those 3,264 documents, totaling 37,650 pages, have therefore been submitted for in camera inspection.”
This is a delaying tactic as much as anything else. Meanwhile, Eastman is still at it. He took his “alternate electors” show on the road last month to Wisconsin, pressuring the legislature to decertify the election results........
Joan McCarter
John Eastman—he of insurrection memo fame—is petitioning to shield thousands of documents from the House Jan. 6 committee, Politico reports. Eastman filed a new petition this week in which he seeks to shield more than 3,200 documents comprising nearly 37,000 pages, claiming attorney-client privilege.
U.S. District Judge David Carter has proven unsympathetic to Eastman thus far in Eastman’s attempts to drag out the release of documents. Carter has ordered Eastman to produce at least 1,500 pages of records per day from a 19,000-page tranche obtained by a committee subpoena sent to Eastman’s ex-employer, Chapman University, and has further ordered him to prioritize emails for the days immediately before and after the Jan. 6 insurrection: Jan. 4-7.
This filing, however, is for the whole period of Eastman’s use of his Chapman account emails. There were nearly 100,000 pages originally included in the House committee’s subpoena of the records, but about 30,000 have already been removed as they were mass mailings unrelated to Eastman’s work with Trump to subvert the election.
.........
Now Eastman is attempting to shield these emails and the Jan. 6 committee has refused “every claim,” so Eastman is asking Carter for a case-by-case review on the 37,000 or so pages left. Carter has already ruled that Trump “more likely than not” attempted to illegally obstruct Congress in a criminal conspiracy in his efforts to overturn the 2020 election. “Based on the evidence, the Court finds it more likely than not that President Trump corruptly attempted to obstruct the Joint Session of Congress on January 6, 2021,” Carter wrote in a March decision.
He described the work of the committee as urgent in ordering Eastman to cough up the records, but now will have to look through this tranche of documents. The committee has questioned whether Eastman was actually acting as Trump’s lawyer that early, making his claim for attorney-client privilege at that point moot. Carter’s determination that Eastman was eventually Trump’s attorney puts all this in the chunk of stuff that needs to be reviewed page by page.
Ultimately, though, Eastman now has 3,200 documents that he refuses to turn over, which is not suspicious at all.
“Defendants made no objection to Dr. Eastman’s claims of privilege over 643 documents totaling 3,006 pages, but did object to every claim of attorney-client privilege and work-product protection that Dr. Eastman asserted with respect to his representation of former President Trump and/or his campaign committee,” Eastman’s attorney, Charles Burnham, wrote in this request to Carter. “Those 3,264 documents, totaling 37,650 pages, have therefore been submitted for in camera inspection.”
This is a delaying tactic as much as anything else. Meanwhile, Eastman is still at it. He took his “alternate electors” show on the road last month to Wisconsin, pressuring the legislature to decertify the election results........
Judge allows challenge by Georgia voters to block Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene from the ballot
Rebekah Sager
A federal judge will allow a group of Georgia voters to move forward with a case to disqualify Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene from running for a second term, arguing that her role in the Jan. 6 insurrection disallows her from appearing on the ballot.
The ruling reads that Greene “voluntarily aided and engaged in an insurrection to obstruct the peaceful transfer of presidential power, disqualifying her from serving as a Member of Congress under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment ...”
Judge Amy Totenberg, a President Barack Obama appointee, also denied Greene’s request for an injunction and temporary restraining order, The New York Times reports. Greene’s attorney has argued that without the injunction, the case is unlikely to be resolved before the May 24 primaries, putting her in further jeopardy of having her name in the running.
“After a thorough analysis of the evidentiary and legal issues presented in this complex matter involving unsettled questions of law, the Court finds Plaintiff has not carried her heavy burden to establish a strong likelihood of success on the legal merits in this case,” Totenberg wrote in the 73-page ruling.
The challenge was filed with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger by five voters represented by Free Speech for People, a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization founded in 2010 offering legal assistance with a focus on election and constitutional issues.
In a news release, one of the voters named in the challenge, Michael Rasbury, said: “Everything I’ve read says Rep. Greene was involved in the Jan. 6th insurrection that was trying to override everything I believe in — Our Constitution, how we run elections, and how our government is set up … She should not be on the ballot.”
In an email to the Times, Ron Fein, the legal director of Free Speech for People, applauded Totenberg’s latest ruling.
“Judge Totenberg’s well-reasoned opinion explains why the Georgia voters who filed this challenge against Greene have the right to have their challenge heard, and why none of Greene’s objections to the Georgia state challenge have any merit,” Fein wrote. “At the hearing on Friday, we look forward to questioning Greene under oath about her involvement in the events of Jan. 6, and to demonstrating how her facilitation of the insurrection disqualifies her from public office under the United States Constitution.”
Greene, 47, an openly unapologetic Trump bootlicker, has denied being involved in the Jan. 6 insurrection on the Capitol, and no evidence has linked her to the attack from Congress, the Jan. 6 congressional committee, or law enforcement.
“This is fundamentally antidemocratic,” said Greene’s attorney, James Bopp Jr., adding that the congresswoman has “publicly and vigorously condemned the attack on the Capitol.”
She has, however, made a lot of ridiculous and incendiary comments. Just this month, she told NBC News: “The American people are fed up with this over-dramatization of a riot that happened here at the Capitol one time … They are sick and tired of Jan. 6 — it’s over, OK?”
On Jan. 5, 2021, Greene appeared on Newsmax for a Facebook Watch interview where she proclaimed that the next day when Congress was meeting in a joint session to formally count the votes of the Electoral College, when asked what she or her party would do, she said, “This is our 1776 moment,” a reference to the American Revolution in 1776 that has become synonymous with far-right extremists......
.......
Greene was famously relieved of her House duties on both the Education and Budget Committees last year after spewing violent, racist, and Islamophobic vitriol on social media.
According to the Daily Beast, the proudly unvaccinated Greene spent over half her $174,000 salary on mask fines during her first year in Congress.
Let’s not forget the relief we all felt when Greene was banned from Twitter in January after violating the company’s COVID-19 misinformation policies.
Greene’s challenge will resume Friday with a hearing where the congresswoman will be questioned under oath, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports, but the final ruling on whether or not Greene will appear on the ballot will come from Raffensperger.
Rebekah Sager
A federal judge will allow a group of Georgia voters to move forward with a case to disqualify Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene from running for a second term, arguing that her role in the Jan. 6 insurrection disallows her from appearing on the ballot.
The ruling reads that Greene “voluntarily aided and engaged in an insurrection to obstruct the peaceful transfer of presidential power, disqualifying her from serving as a Member of Congress under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment ...”
Judge Amy Totenberg, a President Barack Obama appointee, also denied Greene’s request for an injunction and temporary restraining order, The New York Times reports. Greene’s attorney has argued that without the injunction, the case is unlikely to be resolved before the May 24 primaries, putting her in further jeopardy of having her name in the running.
“After a thorough analysis of the evidentiary and legal issues presented in this complex matter involving unsettled questions of law, the Court finds Plaintiff has not carried her heavy burden to establish a strong likelihood of success on the legal merits in this case,” Totenberg wrote in the 73-page ruling.
The challenge was filed with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger by five voters represented by Free Speech for People, a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization founded in 2010 offering legal assistance with a focus on election and constitutional issues.
In a news release, one of the voters named in the challenge, Michael Rasbury, said: “Everything I’ve read says Rep. Greene was involved in the Jan. 6th insurrection that was trying to override everything I believe in — Our Constitution, how we run elections, and how our government is set up … She should not be on the ballot.”
In an email to the Times, Ron Fein, the legal director of Free Speech for People, applauded Totenberg’s latest ruling.
“Judge Totenberg’s well-reasoned opinion explains why the Georgia voters who filed this challenge against Greene have the right to have their challenge heard, and why none of Greene’s objections to the Georgia state challenge have any merit,” Fein wrote. “At the hearing on Friday, we look forward to questioning Greene under oath about her involvement in the events of Jan. 6, and to demonstrating how her facilitation of the insurrection disqualifies her from public office under the United States Constitution.”
Greene, 47, an openly unapologetic Trump bootlicker, has denied being involved in the Jan. 6 insurrection on the Capitol, and no evidence has linked her to the attack from Congress, the Jan. 6 congressional committee, or law enforcement.
“This is fundamentally antidemocratic,” said Greene’s attorney, James Bopp Jr., adding that the congresswoman has “publicly and vigorously condemned the attack on the Capitol.”
She has, however, made a lot of ridiculous and incendiary comments. Just this month, she told NBC News: “The American people are fed up with this over-dramatization of a riot that happened here at the Capitol one time … They are sick and tired of Jan. 6 — it’s over, OK?”
On Jan. 5, 2021, Greene appeared on Newsmax for a Facebook Watch interview where she proclaimed that the next day when Congress was meeting in a joint session to formally count the votes of the Electoral College, when asked what she or her party would do, she said, “This is our 1776 moment,” a reference to the American Revolution in 1776 that has become synonymous with far-right extremists......
.......
Greene was famously relieved of her House duties on both the Education and Budget Committees last year after spewing violent, racist, and Islamophobic vitriol on social media.
According to the Daily Beast, the proudly unvaccinated Greene spent over half her $174,000 salary on mask fines during her first year in Congress.
Let’s not forget the relief we all felt when Greene was banned from Twitter in January after violating the company’s COVID-19 misinformation policies.
Greene’s challenge will resume Friday with a hearing where the congresswoman will be questioned under oath, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports, but the final ruling on whether or not Greene will appear on the ballot will come from Raffensperger.
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