Our friends over at the Iowa site hosted me to provide some answers of my own. Passed along here:
1. Penn State is off to a 5-0 start to the season with only one game being a close result and that was the rivalry game with Pittsburgh. What are your overall thoughts on the Nittany Lions five games into the season? Are they better than you expected and what has stood out so far this year?
BAUER: If anything has surprised me to this point, it’s how hot they can get offensively.
Given what the latter two-thirds of the 2018 season turned into on that side of the ball, the Nittany Lions averaging around 24 points per game after starting with 55.5 per game in the first four games, there was no telling how they’d look. They introduced a new quarterback in Sean Clifford after the offseason transfer of fifth-year senior Tommy Stevens, plus a set of four new running backs in Ricky Slade, Journey Brown, Noah Cain and Devyn Ford (whom they still haven’t limited the rotation on), a new left tackle in Rasheed Walker, and for all intents and purposes, new wideouts stepping to the forefront in Justin Shorter, Dan Chisena, Cam Sullivan-Brown, and Daniel George, in addition to second-year guys in the electric K.J. Hamler and sophomore Jahan Dotson.
Hamler showed enough flashes to demonstrate that he could be a playmaker last season, but Penn State has just repeatedly demonstrated this year that it has the skill guys to post some big numbers at a moment’s notice and, maybe more important, a quarterback in Clifford that can get all of them the ball pretty efficiently. And, the offensive line has been better than I expected, with Clifford rarely facing much in the way of sacks or pressure, though it could improve its consistency with the running game.
The reality for Penn State’s offense, however, is that for as hot as it can run, it can go just as dormant for periods. And in this game, in particular, that’s going to be the thing that I think will dictate how it plays out. If Iowa can slow the pace of the game, keep the ball out of Penn State’s hands, and most importantly, get the Nittany Lions into third downs and get them off the field, that’s a recipe for success for the Hawkeyes.
Defensively, the story is pretty much what it was expected to be. Another dominant defensive line is controlling the line of scrimmage to completely snuff out the run with the help of the linebackers, it makes opposing quarterbacks’ lives miserable, and a strong secondary is stepping in to take advantage on third-and-long situations. The improvement that can happen here is in the form of turnover creation. The Nittany Lions, to this point, have just a +0.20 turnover margin through five games.
Special teams have been markedly improved over the 2018 season, but teams are doing a good job taking Hamler out of the equation with the return game and, for an unknown reason, some of Jordan Stout’s dominance booting the ball out of the back of the end zone on kickoff has seemed to fall off in the past couple of games.
2. On the offensive side, Sean Clifford has taken over at quarterback this year. He seems to be another classic dual-threat signal-caller with the ability to run. What can you tell us about his development this season and his strengths and weaknesses?
BAUER: He doesn’t like the comparison, and I’m sure that my own recency bias plays into it, but there are plenty of comparisons to be made between Clifford right now and the start of Trace McSorley’s career as a starter in 2016. Clifford can extend plays the way that McSorley did, though maybe he doesn’t have quite the feel that McSorley had for breaking off long runs. Given the resources that teams have devoted to stopping the run and bottling up Hamler, Clifford has done well with his short to mid-range passes throughout the season, completing 90 of 135 passes for 1,443 yards and 12 touchdowns with just two interceptions.
The thing about those numbers is, both interceptions were downfield passes and, I’m spitballing here, but of his 45 incompletions, I can’t imagine the number of misses on deep balls is any fewer than half. He just has not been sharp on his deep shots and, in some ways, it has prevented Penn State’s offense from being even more explosive than it has to this point. I will say, there have been some instances in which his targets haven’t helped him, but he’s pretty much acknowledged along with James Franklin that it’s an area that has been lacking and will need to improve.
When pointing to that Pitt game as the lone outing that Penn State hasn’t won by a comfortable margin, that was the one that Clifford struggled the most. And I wouldn’t even call it struggling as much as to say that he was just a hair off on his deep shots and, as a result, the big offensive numbers of the day otherwise just didn’t translate to the scoreboard.
No doubt, opponents with corners it feels comfortable putting on an island, and that can devote its resources into the box, will continue to take that plan of attack to Penn State’s offense and force Clifford to make plays.
3. Penn State has had some great individual backs in the past few years, but this year it seems like more of a committee. What can you tell us about the running backs that Iowa fans will see on Saturday and who are the receivers to watch?
BAUER: It’s been four years since Penn State didn’t have an obvious feature back, the first being three years of Saquon Barkley, followed last year by Miles Sanders, both of whom are now playing at the next level. So what emerged for Penn State this offseason, I think partially by design of Franklin and running backs coach Ja’Juan Seider (for a variety of reasons I won’t get into here), has been a running back by committee approach.
And they’re not joking around about it. No matter the protestations from fans or media members, they feel comfortable with all four backs and have no qualms with continuing to get each one touches as the season progresses. For one, they think it’s a beneficial turn in the game to reduce wear and tear, and maybe more important, they claim that none of the four have really gone so far as to separate themselves in every facet of the game, be it at practice, in the position meeting room, or games.
Now, Penn State fans would likely argue otherwise. Specifically, true freshman Noah Cain has now had 35 carries for 208 yards and five touchdowns and, twice now against Pitt and last weekend against Purdue, has produced some game-controlling possessions in which he has consistently rumbled downhill for 6-7 yards at a time. Franklin has seemed to give a little after the Purdue game to suggest that Cain might have climbed into the role of starter, but the intention is still very much to get the likes of Slade, Brown, and Ford carries.
The one aspect that I think is lost in the discussion is the reality that playing the position demands more than just carrying the football, like providing effective pass protection and picking up increasingly exotic blitz packages, catching the ball out of the backfield, and those impact the breadth of what offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne can call.
As for Penn State’s receivers, the ones to watch are no doubt Hamler and Dotson, with tight ends Pat Freiermuth and Nick Bowers not far behind. Hamler’s 19 catches for 394 yards and four scores lead the team, followed by Dotson’s 12 catches for 242 yards and three scores, Freiermuth’s 15 for 178 and three scores, and Bowers’ five receptions for 136 yards and one touchdown. The one caveat to put here is that, when healthy, Justin Shorter is a big-bodied guy that they are patiently waiting to see break out. He was injured and missed the Purdue game, and there has been no indication yet as to whether or not to expect him to play at Iowa.
4. The Penn State defense has been outstanding this year, allowing just 7.4 points a game. One stat that jumped out this week is the Nittany Lions have 25 quarterback sacks this season. Given Iowa allowed eight sacks last week to Michigan, how good is the pass rush and who are the players to watch on defense?
BAUER: Keep in mind, 10 of those sacks came last week against a Purdue team that, God love it, was playing with two hands tied behind its back. The big criticism through the non-conference portion of the schedule was that Penn State’s vaunted pass rush wasn’t getting home nearly enough, even though it was averaging more than three sacks a game. The reality was a little more complicated than it seemed, as Penn State’s opponents are expecting the front four to get in the backfield and have devoted resources to limit the havoc as much as possible.
Between Yetur Gross-Matos, Shaka Toney, Daniel Joseph, and Jayson Oweh on the ends, plus Rob Windsor, Antonio Shelton, Fred Hansard, and P.J. Mustipher increasingly improving with their push in the middle, that defensive line has been deep and effective. And again, it just comes down to that guiding philosophy of stopping the run, which they’ve been among the best in the country (No. 3 in rush defense), and then getting to the quarterback, which is now No. 1 nationally.
If Iowa’s offensive line is going to struggle again, or the Hawkeyes’ running game can’t put the offense into favorable second or third-down situations, those are the areas that Penn State’s defense feasts on. One thing to note here is that Tariq Castro-Fields, one of Penn State’s two pretty good corners, left the game early on Saturday with what appeared to be an injury and he did not return. Penn State has some other options at corner, but one of the backups, Donovan Johnson, has been missing for the past couple of weeks and the others getting reps, Trent Gordon, Keaton Ellis, and Joey Porter Jr., are all young guys.
5. Big game for both Iowa and Penn State on Saturday night at Kinnick. The last two meetings have gone down to the final minutes with Penn State pulling out victories. What are you expecting in this one and what are some keys for the Nittany Lions if they are going to pull off the road victory?
BAUER: Just based on what I think I know of Iowa and what I’ve seen of Penn State this season, this game will boil down to Penn State’s offensive execution against Iowa’s defense. In a lot of ways, Penn State is designed to be feast or famine, and it’s just going to be critical that the Nittany Lion offense finds its connections between Clifford and his targets and then cash in when the opportunities present themselves.
Because really, I don’t see Penn State having the ball many times on Saturday night.
Iowa seems to have a ball-control offense, and even though points haven’t been plentiful for the Hawkeyes (which I don’t expect to change all that much against this Penn State defense), if they can dictate the pace of the game by grounding out possessions of 12-plus plays and eating up clock along the way, and then keep the ball out of Penn State’s hands offensively by stopping the run and taking away the Nittany Lions’ explosive plays, that’s a good way to be in a 17-14 type of game, with either side capable of coming away with a win in that situation.
While I think there’s a chance that happens Saturday night - after all, Penn State has not fared well when Pitt’s defense confused it, as did Purdue’s - I still think Penn State has the edge just based on its ability to be explosive at any moment. After Michigan last weekend, and just based on the fact that Iowa doesn’t seem to want to play a style of game that has points scored in bunches, barring something out of the ordinary, I don’t easily see a path for the Hawkeyes to get into the 20s. Penn State, however, I do.
It’s just going to depend on how effectively Iowa can play keep away and maximize its opportunities when it puts Penn State’s offense off schedule. Either way, I’m taking the under. But I think that Clifford has experienced enough to this point, with enough firepower around him at the skill positions. to be able to guide the visitors to at least three touchdowns for the day. Penn State 27 Iowa 10
1. Penn State is off to a 5-0 start to the season with only one game being a close result and that was the rivalry game with Pittsburgh. What are your overall thoughts on the Nittany Lions five games into the season? Are they better than you expected and what has stood out so far this year?
BAUER: If anything has surprised me to this point, it’s how hot they can get offensively.
Given what the latter two-thirds of the 2018 season turned into on that side of the ball, the Nittany Lions averaging around 24 points per game after starting with 55.5 per game in the first four games, there was no telling how they’d look. They introduced a new quarterback in Sean Clifford after the offseason transfer of fifth-year senior Tommy Stevens, plus a set of four new running backs in Ricky Slade, Journey Brown, Noah Cain and Devyn Ford (whom they still haven’t limited the rotation on), a new left tackle in Rasheed Walker, and for all intents and purposes, new wideouts stepping to the forefront in Justin Shorter, Dan Chisena, Cam Sullivan-Brown, and Daniel George, in addition to second-year guys in the electric K.J. Hamler and sophomore Jahan Dotson.
Hamler showed enough flashes to demonstrate that he could be a playmaker last season, but Penn State has just repeatedly demonstrated this year that it has the skill guys to post some big numbers at a moment’s notice and, maybe more important, a quarterback in Clifford that can get all of them the ball pretty efficiently. And, the offensive line has been better than I expected, with Clifford rarely facing much in the way of sacks or pressure, though it could improve its consistency with the running game.
The reality for Penn State’s offense, however, is that for as hot as it can run, it can go just as dormant for periods. And in this game, in particular, that’s going to be the thing that I think will dictate how it plays out. If Iowa can slow the pace of the game, keep the ball out of Penn State’s hands, and most importantly, get the Nittany Lions into third downs and get them off the field, that’s a recipe for success for the Hawkeyes.
Defensively, the story is pretty much what it was expected to be. Another dominant defensive line is controlling the line of scrimmage to completely snuff out the run with the help of the linebackers, it makes opposing quarterbacks’ lives miserable, and a strong secondary is stepping in to take advantage on third-and-long situations. The improvement that can happen here is in the form of turnover creation. The Nittany Lions, to this point, have just a +0.20 turnover margin through five games.
Special teams have been markedly improved over the 2018 season, but teams are doing a good job taking Hamler out of the equation with the return game and, for an unknown reason, some of Jordan Stout’s dominance booting the ball out of the back of the end zone on kickoff has seemed to fall off in the past couple of games.
2. On the offensive side, Sean Clifford has taken over at quarterback this year. He seems to be another classic dual-threat signal-caller with the ability to run. What can you tell us about his development this season and his strengths and weaknesses?
BAUER: He doesn’t like the comparison, and I’m sure that my own recency bias plays into it, but there are plenty of comparisons to be made between Clifford right now and the start of Trace McSorley’s career as a starter in 2016. Clifford can extend plays the way that McSorley did, though maybe he doesn’t have quite the feel that McSorley had for breaking off long runs. Given the resources that teams have devoted to stopping the run and bottling up Hamler, Clifford has done well with his short to mid-range passes throughout the season, completing 90 of 135 passes for 1,443 yards and 12 touchdowns with just two interceptions.
The thing about those numbers is, both interceptions were downfield passes and, I’m spitballing here, but of his 45 incompletions, I can’t imagine the number of misses on deep balls is any fewer than half. He just has not been sharp on his deep shots and, in some ways, it has prevented Penn State’s offense from being even more explosive than it has to this point. I will say, there have been some instances in which his targets haven’t helped him, but he’s pretty much acknowledged along with James Franklin that it’s an area that has been lacking and will need to improve.
When pointing to that Pitt game as the lone outing that Penn State hasn’t won by a comfortable margin, that was the one that Clifford struggled the most. And I wouldn’t even call it struggling as much as to say that he was just a hair off on his deep shots and, as a result, the big offensive numbers of the day otherwise just didn’t translate to the scoreboard.
No doubt, opponents with corners it feels comfortable putting on an island, and that can devote its resources into the box, will continue to take that plan of attack to Penn State’s offense and force Clifford to make plays.
3. Penn State has had some great individual backs in the past few years, but this year it seems like more of a committee. What can you tell us about the running backs that Iowa fans will see on Saturday and who are the receivers to watch?
BAUER: It’s been four years since Penn State didn’t have an obvious feature back, the first being three years of Saquon Barkley, followed last year by Miles Sanders, both of whom are now playing at the next level. So what emerged for Penn State this offseason, I think partially by design of Franklin and running backs coach Ja’Juan Seider (for a variety of reasons I won’t get into here), has been a running back by committee approach.
And they’re not joking around about it. No matter the protestations from fans or media members, they feel comfortable with all four backs and have no qualms with continuing to get each one touches as the season progresses. For one, they think it’s a beneficial turn in the game to reduce wear and tear, and maybe more important, they claim that none of the four have really gone so far as to separate themselves in every facet of the game, be it at practice, in the position meeting room, or games.
Now, Penn State fans would likely argue otherwise. Specifically, true freshman Noah Cain has now had 35 carries for 208 yards and five touchdowns and, twice now against Pitt and last weekend against Purdue, has produced some game-controlling possessions in which he has consistently rumbled downhill for 6-7 yards at a time. Franklin has seemed to give a little after the Purdue game to suggest that Cain might have climbed into the role of starter, but the intention is still very much to get the likes of Slade, Brown, and Ford carries.
The one aspect that I think is lost in the discussion is the reality that playing the position demands more than just carrying the football, like providing effective pass protection and picking up increasingly exotic blitz packages, catching the ball out of the backfield, and those impact the breadth of what offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne can call.
As for Penn State’s receivers, the ones to watch are no doubt Hamler and Dotson, with tight ends Pat Freiermuth and Nick Bowers not far behind. Hamler’s 19 catches for 394 yards and four scores lead the team, followed by Dotson’s 12 catches for 242 yards and three scores, Freiermuth’s 15 for 178 and three scores, and Bowers’ five receptions for 136 yards and one touchdown. The one caveat to put here is that, when healthy, Justin Shorter is a big-bodied guy that they are patiently waiting to see break out. He was injured and missed the Purdue game, and there has been no indication yet as to whether or not to expect him to play at Iowa.
4. The Penn State defense has been outstanding this year, allowing just 7.4 points a game. One stat that jumped out this week is the Nittany Lions have 25 quarterback sacks this season. Given Iowa allowed eight sacks last week to Michigan, how good is the pass rush and who are the players to watch on defense?
BAUER: Keep in mind, 10 of those sacks came last week against a Purdue team that, God love it, was playing with two hands tied behind its back. The big criticism through the non-conference portion of the schedule was that Penn State’s vaunted pass rush wasn’t getting home nearly enough, even though it was averaging more than three sacks a game. The reality was a little more complicated than it seemed, as Penn State’s opponents are expecting the front four to get in the backfield and have devoted resources to limit the havoc as much as possible.
Between Yetur Gross-Matos, Shaka Toney, Daniel Joseph, and Jayson Oweh on the ends, plus Rob Windsor, Antonio Shelton, Fred Hansard, and P.J. Mustipher increasingly improving with their push in the middle, that defensive line has been deep and effective. And again, it just comes down to that guiding philosophy of stopping the run, which they’ve been among the best in the country (No. 3 in rush defense), and then getting to the quarterback, which is now No. 1 nationally.
If Iowa’s offensive line is going to struggle again, or the Hawkeyes’ running game can’t put the offense into favorable second or third-down situations, those are the areas that Penn State’s defense feasts on. One thing to note here is that Tariq Castro-Fields, one of Penn State’s two pretty good corners, left the game early on Saturday with what appeared to be an injury and he did not return. Penn State has some other options at corner, but one of the backups, Donovan Johnson, has been missing for the past couple of weeks and the others getting reps, Trent Gordon, Keaton Ellis, and Joey Porter Jr., are all young guys.
5. Big game for both Iowa and Penn State on Saturday night at Kinnick. The last two meetings have gone down to the final minutes with Penn State pulling out victories. What are you expecting in this one and what are some keys for the Nittany Lions if they are going to pull off the road victory?
BAUER: Just based on what I think I know of Iowa and what I’ve seen of Penn State this season, this game will boil down to Penn State’s offensive execution against Iowa’s defense. In a lot of ways, Penn State is designed to be feast or famine, and it’s just going to be critical that the Nittany Lion offense finds its connections between Clifford and his targets and then cash in when the opportunities present themselves.
Because really, I don’t see Penn State having the ball many times on Saturday night.
Iowa seems to have a ball-control offense, and even though points haven’t been plentiful for the Hawkeyes (which I don’t expect to change all that much against this Penn State defense), if they can dictate the pace of the game by grounding out possessions of 12-plus plays and eating up clock along the way, and then keep the ball out of Penn State’s hands offensively by stopping the run and taking away the Nittany Lions’ explosive plays, that’s a good way to be in a 17-14 type of game, with either side capable of coming away with a win in that situation.
While I think there’s a chance that happens Saturday night - after all, Penn State has not fared well when Pitt’s defense confused it, as did Purdue’s - I still think Penn State has the edge just based on its ability to be explosive at any moment. After Michigan last weekend, and just based on the fact that Iowa doesn’t seem to want to play a style of game that has points scored in bunches, barring something out of the ordinary, I don’t easily see a path for the Hawkeyes to get into the 20s. Penn State, however, I do.
It’s just going to depend on how effectively Iowa can play keep away and maximize its opportunities when it puts Penn State’s offense off schedule. Either way, I’m taking the under. But I think that Clifford has experienced enough to this point, with enough firepower around him at the skill positions. to be able to guide the visitors to at least three touchdowns for the day. Penn State 27 Iowa 10
