NCAA Brackets and discussion
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Before Bigs, I had Davis and then Kasak as the two most likely not to AA. I feel a lot more comfortable now that they can actually do it. I'm kinda putting Nagao as the least likely to AA which I'd have never thought when I was recruiting him all last season. Lol . Before anyone argues, I'm saying he still AAs. And I'm also predicting we get all 10 to do it.
Nagao is definitely the least likely. He starts hitting land mines in round 2. I have him going out on the topside to Nasir then losing a R12 match to the Ragusin-Shawver rematch loser (my guess is Ragusin).
Or: as has been explained several times before, the committee followed the formula that everybody agreed to before the season started.
These seeding criteria for Carter would not have changed if he had done what you suggested:
- He had no RPI --> gave away 10 pts in every seeding sim match
- DNP at B10s --> gave away another 10 pts to every qualifier
- He was 6th in Win % --> gave away 10 pts to Lewis, Griffith, DeVos, Ruth, and Conigliaro; +10 pts vs everyone else
- He only beat 3 NQs (Kennedy, Welsh, Incontrera), none top tier. He likely lost Quality Wins (15-5 split) to many other NQs.
- Losing to Sparks cost him Common Opponents against Ruth and Welsh.
If anything, his seed was pushed up by his #2 Coaches' Rank --> +15 pts against everyone except Lewis. If they wanted to punish him for the 2 injury defaults, the coaches could've ranked him much lower, which would've driven his seed further down.
Two things that worked against him: being held out for a couple matches due to illness (cost him Quality Wins and RPI); and Wittlake not competing in the postseason (cost Quality Wins).
There's no conspiracy. Carter got the seed he earned. And it doesn't matter at all for him.
While I agree with you about Ayala - in my post before, I said he has the best draw through the R16, then Davis has the best quarter as I'd take Figueroa or McKee all day before I would want Spratley - you're crazy if you think Stanich has a better draw. He is either going to get Caleb Smith or DeAugustino in the R16. Both of those guys are tougher than Peterson or Ungar.
Ramos has either Surtain - who I detailed above as well - or Poulin. Then in the quarters he may get Noto or Volk. That's a terrible draw.
C'mon people, pay attention...
And then in the quarters, Stanich either gets Camacho (who's wrestling very well lately) or Barnett. No picnic there either.
I'd rather have Davis' draw, and take my chances that ASU Figs shows up and not Cadet Worlds Figs.
Nasir Bailey is going to be a tough out, but the thing is I only saw his loss to Vito and I can't find a single top 15 win for him.
Going to go through the bracket and give a shot at making predictions. I'll only be doing the champions side and then a guess were the guys finish.
125: What an absolute mess of a weight. However, this weight may be my favorite due to the uncertainty. I believe I read somewhere there were 7 different guys ranked number 1 at some point this season. I don't love Davis draw, but he has proved he is up to the challenge of the bright lights. But the lights at this tournament shine a bit brighter. I think he wins his first one comfortably and then toe the line with Peterson. Peterson obviously had some good wins last week beating Ramos 7-1, and DeAugustino 9-6 in SV. He also took losses to to McKee 6-3SV, and Ayala 4-1. I'm thinking Davis gets by him and sees McKee ( who has no easy path with Terukina and then probably Figs ). McKee has done some of his best work at NCAAs on the backside so who knows. I think it will definitely be one of those three but I'm still going with McKee right now. I think Davis wins this one again to see Ramos in the semis. I would not be in complete shock to see Ramos go down to Noto. I am actually hoping that happens. If Davis hits Noto, I think he makes the finals. However, I see Davis losing to Ramos in the semis. I'm going to say Ramos sees Ayala in the finals and the top 3 go Ayala, Ramos, Davis.
133: Nagao looked like an absolute hammer his last match at BIGs sticking Van Dee in the first period. If that Nagao shows up, he could definitely go on a deep, deep run. I see him beating Yarbrough and then getting Bailey from LR in the second round who is legit. He's going to ride the momentum and get the win to move into the quarters to wrestle Crookham. Their last match was a good match to watch, but I just didn't see enough from Nagao to think he wins the rematch. He was never really close to scoring even though I believe he rode him the entire 3rd. A lot of Crookhams points came from a scramble off Nagao's shots. So maybe Nagao makes that adjustment and keeps it close enough to earn the win via riding time point. But I'm still taking Crookham to win and Nagao to do damage on the backside. I'm gonna say its Crookham over Fix in the finals, Nagao beating Shawver to AA, losing to Vito and end up taking 5th.
141: BB wins agains Owen hopefully with bonus and sets the tone for a more offensive tournament than last weekend where he scored a combined total of 10 points and also gave up 10. The most point he scored was 5 in his semi against Lemley but still only won by 1 point. I don't see Matthews scoring a takedown on BB especially with his up and down year (although the second half he has been much more consistent). That will set up a quarter with Happel where I think BB's counters will be the difference maker in that match. I'm gonna say he wrestles McNeil in the semis and wins setting up a rematch of the BIG finals with Mendez who I think will be challenged by Echemendia but Mendez has too high of a motor. I'm going to say BB wins the rematch getting the only takedown of the match. I belive everytime they have wrestled the only guy with 1 takedown has won, so I'm going to say it will be BB this time.
149: Kasak gets the win over Abas and then Lamer to set up a quarter with Parco. I think history repeats itself with Parco losing to a PSU 149 lber which moves him into the semis against either Arrington or Gomez. Call me crazy, but I think I woud rather see him wrestle Gomez, but I think its going to be Arrington. I don't think he matches up well with Arrington, so I will say Lovett over Arrington in the finals, with Kasak losing to Henson in consi semis and Kasak ends up 5th.
157: Levi over Wilcox and and then Mauller to meet up with Lewan again in the quarters and sees Ed Scott in the semis. I think the Scott, Andonian quarter will be a fun match to watch and wouldn't surprise me to see Levi wrestle Andonian. With Andonian being out, I think his stamina is the difference maker against Scott, and if its not, it definitely will be against Levi as long as Levi stays out of the big move early. One of the most anticipated finals will be Levi vs Shapiro. I think its going to be a great match with Levi's riding ability being the difference maker and giving him his first championship, more to come.
165: The only two guys I could see beating Psycho are both on the opposite side. He goes through Mayfield, then I think Brady. Olejnik has proved he can beat top guys, but I just don't see him winning this one. I think Messenbrink then beats Ramirez to set up maybe the most anticipated match in college wrestling this year with KOT. They've worked out together since they were young and from my understanding their families are still close. I really do not want to pick against either guy, but I'm going to say KOT gets his hand raised. One of the things that make KOT great is his ability to create scrambles. He has the feel in those scrambles that can not be taught. These scrambles will act as clock killers to negate Psycho's high shot count. I think it will be a great match, but I'm taking KOT at the end.
174: What an absolute tragedy that the two best guys in the weight will meet in the quarters. Its almost as if the PIAA did the brackets. I completely understand punishing someone for not wrestling in the conference tournament. However, at some point, I don't think computer data should be the end all be all. At some point, common sense has to come into play so you seperate the best wrestlers in the bracket as much as possible. With all that being said, Carter gets to Mekhi going through Sparks and Thompson to meet up with Mekhi in the quarters. Is Carter fully healthy? I'm not sure. Even with a less than a 100% knee, Mekhi is going to have to wrestle Carter first match after weigh ins. I'll say Carter sees Kennedy in the semis and faces the winner of Ruth and Welsh in the finals. I'll say it's going to be Ruth based on experience.
184: This is going to be the wild weight with 125. I really don't mind Truax's spot here. I'm saying after beating Pine, he is going to see Kane. I think Foca and Plott will be a good second round match but give me Plott and Truax in the quarters. I'm taking Truax to advance to the semis to see TJ Stewart who advances after beating Rogotzke who will upset Salazar. I don't see anyone at the weight who can beat Keckeisen. He is one of the most dominant wrestlers in college and probably the least talked about out of those dominant guys.
197: AB downs Bates, then Stout, then Buchanan, which sets up a great semi with Beard. I don't think Beard has quite enough for AB which then sets up an even better final with Hidlay. They've wrestled each other enough times we know what will and won't happen. The difference this year is I think AB is using an underhook more this year than in the past. AB may give up a takedown, but he'll earn more than he gives up (most likely the ones he gets will be on the edge).
285: Kerk goes through Greer, then Greiss, then Fledman to see Schultz in the semis. Schultz is definitely a dangerous opponent with his upper body abilities. If Kerk stays out of the ties, I think he could live on his legs and win quite comfortably to see the winner of Hendrickson and Bastida in the finals. Hendrickson reverses the results from last weekend and gets to the finals. Kerk gets his hand raised to capture his first championship.
To sum it up, thats 7 finalists, 5 champs, one third, and two fifth. Those two fifth placed guys depending how the brackets fall I could see falling a spot or two. If it plays out like this it will definitely be a tournament to remember.
125: Davis 3rd
133: Nagao 5th
141: BB 1st
149: Kasak 5th
157: Levi 1st
165: Psycho 2nd
174: Carter 1st
184: Truax 2nd
197: AB 1st
285: Kerk 1st
125: What an absolute mess of a weight. However, this weight may be my favorite due to the uncertainty. I believe I read somewhere there were 7 different guys ranked number 1 at some point this season. I don't love Davis draw, but he has proved he is up to the challenge of the bright lights. But the lights at this tournament shine a bit brighter. I think he wins his first one comfortably and then toe the line with Peterson. Peterson obviously had some good wins last week beating Ramos 7-1, and DeAugustino 9-6 in SV. He also took losses to to McKee 6-3SV, and Ayala 4-1. I'm thinking Davis gets by him and sees McKee ( who has no easy path with Terukina and then probably Figs ). McKee has done some of his best work at NCAAs on the backside so who knows. I think it will definitely be one of those three but I'm still going with McKee right now. I think Davis wins this one again to see Ramos in the semis. I would not be in complete shock to see Ramos go down to Noto. I am actually hoping that happens. If Davis hits Noto, I think he makes the finals. However, I see Davis losing to Ramos in the semis. I'm going to say Ramos sees Ayala in the finals and the top 3 go Ayala, Ramos, Davis.
133: Nagao looked like an absolute hammer his last match at BIGs sticking Van Dee in the first period. If that Nagao shows up, he could definitely go on a deep, deep run. I see him beating Yarbrough and then getting Bailey from LR in the second round who is legit. He's going to ride the momentum and get the win to move into the quarters to wrestle Crookham. Their last match was a good match to watch, but I just didn't see enough from Nagao to think he wins the rematch. He was never really close to scoring even though I believe he rode him the entire 3rd. A lot of Crookhams points came from a scramble off Nagao's shots. So maybe Nagao makes that adjustment and keeps it close enough to earn the win via riding time point. But I'm still taking Crookham to win and Nagao to do damage on the backside. I'm gonna say its Crookham over Fix in the finals, Nagao beating Shawver to AA, losing to Vito and end up taking 5th.
141: BB wins agains Owen hopefully with bonus and sets the tone for a more offensive tournament than last weekend where he scored a combined total of 10 points and also gave up 10. The most point he scored was 5 in his semi against Lemley but still only won by 1 point. I don't see Matthews scoring a takedown on BB especially with his up and down year (although the second half he has been much more consistent). That will set up a quarter with Happel where I think BB's counters will be the difference maker in that match. I'm gonna say he wrestles McNeil in the semis and wins setting up a rematch of the BIG finals with Mendez who I think will be challenged by Echemendia but Mendez has too high of a motor. I'm going to say BB wins the rematch getting the only takedown of the match. I belive everytime they have wrestled the only guy with 1 takedown has won, so I'm going to say it will be BB this time.
149: Kasak gets the win over Abas and then Lamer to set up a quarter with Parco. I think history repeats itself with Parco losing to a PSU 149 lber which moves him into the semis against either Arrington or Gomez. Call me crazy, but I think I woud rather see him wrestle Gomez, but I think its going to be Arrington. I don't think he matches up well with Arrington, so I will say Lovett over Arrington in the finals, with Kasak losing to Henson in consi semis and Kasak ends up 5th.
157: Levi over Wilcox and and then Mauller to meet up with Lewan again in the quarters and sees Ed Scott in the semis. I think the Scott, Andonian quarter will be a fun match to watch and wouldn't surprise me to see Levi wrestle Andonian. With Andonian being out, I think his stamina is the difference maker against Scott, and if its not, it definitely will be against Levi as long as Levi stays out of the big move early. One of the most anticipated finals will be Levi vs Shapiro. I think its going to be a great match with Levi's riding ability being the difference maker and giving him his first championship, more to come.
165: The only two guys I could see beating Psycho are both on the opposite side. He goes through Mayfield, then I think Brady. Olejnik has proved he can beat top guys, but I just don't see him winning this one. I think Messenbrink then beats Ramirez to set up maybe the most anticipated match in college wrestling this year with KOT. They've worked out together since they were young and from my understanding their families are still close. I really do not want to pick against either guy, but I'm going to say KOT gets his hand raised. One of the things that make KOT great is his ability to create scrambles. He has the feel in those scrambles that can not be taught. These scrambles will act as clock killers to negate Psycho's high shot count. I think it will be a great match, but I'm taking KOT at the end.
174: What an absolute tragedy that the two best guys in the weight will meet in the quarters. Its almost as if the PIAA did the brackets. I completely understand punishing someone for not wrestling in the conference tournament. However, at some point, I don't think computer data should be the end all be all. At some point, common sense has to come into play so you seperate the best wrestlers in the bracket as much as possible. With all that being said, Carter gets to Mekhi going through Sparks and Thompson to meet up with Mekhi in the quarters. Is Carter fully healthy? I'm not sure. Even with a less than a 100% knee, Mekhi is going to have to wrestle Carter first match after weigh ins. I'll say Carter sees Kennedy in the semis and faces the winner of Ruth and Welsh in the finals. I'll say it's going to be Ruth based on experience.
184: This is going to be the wild weight with 125. I really don't mind Truax's spot here. I'm saying after beating Pine, he is going to see Kane. I think Foca and Plott will be a good second round match but give me Plott and Truax in the quarters. I'm taking Truax to advance to the semis to see TJ Stewart who advances after beating Rogotzke who will upset Salazar. I don't see anyone at the weight who can beat Keckeisen. He is one of the most dominant wrestlers in college and probably the least talked about out of those dominant guys.
197: AB downs Bates, then Stout, then Buchanan, which sets up a great semi with Beard. I don't think Beard has quite enough for AB which then sets up an even better final with Hidlay. They've wrestled each other enough times we know what will and won't happen. The difference this year is I think AB is using an underhook more this year than in the past. AB may give up a takedown, but he'll earn more than he gives up (most likely the ones he gets will be on the edge).
285: Kerk goes through Greer, then Greiss, then Fledman to see Schultz in the semis. Schultz is definitely a dangerous opponent with his upper body abilities. If Kerk stays out of the ties, I think he could live on his legs and win quite comfortably to see the winner of Hendrickson and Bastida in the finals. Hendrickson reverses the results from last weekend and gets to the finals. Kerk gets his hand raised to capture his first championship.
To sum it up, thats 7 finalists, 5 champs, one third, and two fifth. Those two fifth placed guys depending how the brackets fall I could see falling a spot or two. If it plays out like this it will definitely be a tournament to remember.
125: Davis 3rd
133: Nagao 5th
141: BB 1st
149: Kasak 5th
157: Levi 1st
165: Psycho 2nd
174: Carter 1st
184: Truax 2nd
197: AB 1st
285: Kerk 1st
10/10 or GTFO.
8 seed Frost, 11 Romney. Both are top 15 in the coaches' poll.
It was early in the season, but that was an impressive result. Frost is for real.
There are no good draws in 125. There are at least 20, maybe more, guys in the draw who legitimately could win. Everyone is going to start stepping on land mines by round 2 (and some in round 1: Smith-DeAug, Surtin-Poulin, Peterson-Ungar, McKee-Terukina).
He tech’ed Evan Frost 15-0. Frost is 4th in RPI, 8th in coaches 9th on Flo, 9th on Intermat, and 9th on WIN. All are Top 10 but you said he sucks so he doesn’t count.
Edit: I see many others pointed this out for you as well.
C* didn’t get RPI too few matches. Going forward I believe that award RPI if he would have wrestled and lose the number of matches short.
No. Those 2 injury defaults count as wrestled matches. Including them, he was 12-2, short of the 15-match minimum for an RPI.
Had he not skipped any of 3 duals for illness, then he would have had an RPI.
But: WrestleStat calculated his RPI at 14th. RPI doesn't vary much for 1 or 2 matches. If he beat both Griffith and Turley, then maybe he's a top 10 RPI. Maybe, but not absolutely. His schedule was too weak for more than that.
I could live with your prognostication. Let's ask Punksy Phil.
Not sure I would like to see Psycho lose, but it is all an acceptable outcome for this one fan. Now what do the wrestlers think about all this? We will have to wait and see.
And this is the point. By putting in place a “fair” formula there are unintended consequences when you remove the ability to think …
You aren’t punishing CStar… you are punishing the guys who earned the 8 and the 1 (really 9 and 2).
I say he still sucks and I also say Nagao can beat Bailey, AND Crookham.
Kinda surprised how many are simply giving it to O'Toole. He has to get past Hamiti or Carr first, and he has not met Mesenbrink before in the college sport.
My point exactly. After seeing Spencer looking at the lights along with the hundreds of other upsets over the years it's not a stretch at all to think Keegan could get upset. I'm picking hamiti to come out of that side he is dangerous as hell just something about him
And insanely rewarding the true 3 and 4 seeds by making them 2 and 3..... on the side of draw that is missing the two best wrestlers at the weight as well as 3 former Champions??? Utter insanity and complete lack of common sense.
Quick question for the experts. If Shane Griffith's injury is such that he can't go, and he provides notification ahead of R1, would the NCAA redraw the bracket and bring in an alternate at the new 33 slot?
Because he's a two time defending champ. He will be the favorite if they meet. Of course MM has a chance, but KOT is the favorite. Hopefully was as fans get to witness it.
They will and Madden can stop crying because Bubba will get in
Nobody (or at least me) is simply giving it to KOT. He has definitely earned it with being a 2x champ, only losing 3x in his career, and just beating what most would consider the clear cut number 2 ranked guy at the weight by 6. And before anyone says it, I would say other than PSU fans, KOT is the clear cut number 1 ranked guy followed by David Carr, and then I think MM slots in nicely. I am one of the guys that think in order to move ahead of someone, you need to beat them, or they need to lose to someone below you to catapult you above them. Neither of those have happened to the top 2 guys. I also believe Carr should be the 3 seed but thats a different issue. I mean no disrespect to MM by picking KOT. Do I think he can beat him, yes. Would I pick him if they've already wrestled this year due to PSU being notoriously better against guys after they see them, yes (unless of course KOT just completely dominated him, which I don't think would or will happen). But due to all of the factors I've listed, I'm picking KOT this time around.
The Hamiti match gives me major pause about Mitch's ability to beat Keegan, which isn't a slight on Mitch at all, Keegan legitimately will finish his career among GOAT discussions. Mitch is still a freshman and likely an undersized one at 165.
Mitch has literally exceeded every single expectation I had for him coming into this year (and they were high for the record) and then a few levels above that. But the reality is Keegan is way better defensively and stronger than Hamiti and would have feasted on some of the positions Mitch put himself in (Hamiti did) Similarly, he has a 6th sense with the cradle. Mitch cannot dig himself into a 7 point hole against Keegan.
Why am I not writing Mitch off? Honestly, for the same reason Askren said he isn't on FRL. Mitch's goal is to take everyone to deep waters. If your tank hits empty before 7 minutes are up with Mitch, he's won. Mentioned he only needs 30 seconds for 4 takedowns or just a takedown to the back to erase a hole. Can he take Keegan there? It'll be extremely difficult but that is the only pace Mitch knows how to wrestle. Could he and Casey change it up possibly? TBD
Mitch has literally exceeded every single expectation I had for him coming into this year (and they were high for the record) and then a few levels above that. But the reality is Keegan is way better defensively and stronger than Hamiti and would have feasted on some of the positions Mitch put himself in (Hamiti did) Similarly, he has a 6th sense with the cradle. Mitch cannot dig himself into a 7 point hole against Keegan.
Why am I not writing Mitch off? Honestly, for the same reason Askren said he isn't on FRL. Mitch's goal is to take everyone to deep waters. If your tank hits empty before 7 minutes are up with Mitch, he's won. Mentioned he only needs 30 seconds for 4 takedowns or just a takedown to the back to erase a hole. Can he take Keegan there? It'll be extremely difficult but that is the only pace Mitch knows how to wrestle. Could he and Casey change it up possibly? TBD
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Not the easiest first round draw but Abas is 1-2 in his last 2 NCAAs and doesn't have any Ws over NQ this year. It'll be close but give me Tyler there, especially since it seems something clicked for him his last 2 matches at Big Tens (similar thing I saw with SVN and Bartlett last year)
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