NCAA Selection Show Missives, Opinions & Hopefully a Few Facts

[dmm53]

Team scores based solely on the seeds, using only implied placement and advancement points, without factoring in any possible bonus points.

RANK	SCHOOL	PTS
1	Iowa	126.5
2	Penn State	72
3	NC State	63.5
4	Virginia Tech	61.5
5	Missouri	60
6	Nebraska	54.5
7	Michigan	53.5
8	Oklahoma State	50
9	Arizona State	46.5
10	Ohio State	36
11	Pittsburgh	34
11	Minnesota	34
13	Iowa State	31.5
14	Northwestern	29.5
15	Central Michigan	28
16	Rutgers	24.5
16	Northern Iowa	24.5
18	Utah Valley	22.5
19	North Carolina	21
20	Rider	20
21	Oregon State	18.5

 

[johnstownsteel]

Team scores based solely on the seeds, using only implied placement and advancement points, without factoring in any possible bonus points.

RANK	SCHOOL	PTS
1	Iowa	126.5
2	Penn State	72
3	NC State	63.5
4	Virginia Tech	61.5
5	Missouri	60
6	Nebraska	54.5
7	Michigan	53.5
8	Oklahoma State	50
9	Arizona State	46.5
10	Ohio State	36
11	Pittsburgh	34
11	Minnesota	34
13	Iowa State	31.5
14	Northwestern	29.5
15	Central Michigan	28
16	Rutgers	24.5
16	Northern Iowa	24.5
18	Utah Valley	22.5
19	North Carolina	21
20	Rider	20
21	Oregon State	18.5

Looks like another National title to me.

 

[pawrestlersintn]

I wonder if Robbie may benefit from catching Heinselman first match after weigh-ins? Just looks to me like Heinselman has to be cutting more weight.

 

[PSUer1989]

Team scores based solely on the seeds, using only implied placement and advancement points, without factoring in any possible bonus points.

RANK	SCHOOL	PTS
1	Iowa	126.5
2	Penn State	72
3	NC State	63.5
4	Virginia Tech	61.5
5	Missouri	60
6	Nebraska	54.5
7	Michigan	53.5
8	Oklahoma State	50
9	Arizona State	46.5
10	Ohio State	36
11	Pittsburgh	34
11	Minnesota	34
13	Iowa State	31.5
14	Northwestern	29.5
15	Central Michigan	28
16	Rutgers	24.5
16	Northern Iowa	24.5
18	Utah Valley	22.5
19	North Carolina	21
20	Rider	20
21	Oregon State	18.5

What was the predicted score in 2018 with the best second team ever tOSU? I know it was much closer than this year, but what a tournament!

 

[PSU Mike]

157

Kaleb Young 5 and Berge 12. Would meet in second round if both win

Huge if we want to win the whole enchilada.

 

[PSU Mike]

I wonder if Robbie may benefit from catching Heinselman first match after weigh-ins? Just looks to me like Heinselman has to be cutting more weight.

If it didn’t matter in duals prolly not a factor.

 

[Irv ONian]

Well, the simulator says that we have a chance...

penn state wins	iowa wins	nc state wins	va tech wins	missouri wins	oklahoma state wins	nebraska wins
1.5%​	97.6%​	0.3%​	0.1%​	0.5%​	0.0%​	0.1%​

 

[KidDagger]

I wonder if Robbie may benefit from catching Heinselman first match after weigh-ins? Just looks to me like Heinselman has to be cutting more weight.

I wouldn’t consider heinselman a good first round draw for Robbie... honestly thought Robbie would get a higher seed but most likely he will have to win back through the wrestle backs...

 

[johnstownsteel]

If it didn’t matter in duals prolly not a factor.

I guess I should know this but isnt there another weight in friday morning? Unlike after a dual weighin, Heinselman cant really eat and refuel right?

 

[PSU Mike]

I guess I should know this but isnt there another weight in friday morning? Unlike after a dual weighin, Heinselman cant really eat and refuel right?

Yes, but I don’t think went from too light to struggling with the cut. He showed no signs of fading in either match against Robbie, in two different scenarios.

 

[js8793]

I wonder if Robbie may benefit from catching Heinselman first match after weigh-ins? Just looks to me like Heinselman has to be cutting more weight.

Heinselman is one of the most notoriously undersized 125s in the country.

 

[McScoreley]

Our freshman (except for Carter) weren't going to get good draws. We knew that.

 

[johnstownsteel]

Yes, but I don’t think went from too light to struggling with the cut. He showed no signs of fading in either match against Robbie, in two different scenarios.

Oh now that I agree with. I dont think hes struggling with a cut either. But if he is, getting him early could help. I'll ask this too, not really two types of scenarios was it? Both times the two met, Heinselman didnt really have to worry about weighing in again right?

 

[johnstownsteel]

Heinselman is one of the most notoriously undersized 125s in the country.

Correct. It's all we heard last year. Kids grow and not hearing it so much this year tho. He does look to me like hes bigger than Howard. But what do I know?

 

[johnstownsteel]

Heinselman is one of the most notoriously undersized 125s in the country.

So what do you think? Are you happy about Iowas draws? PSU's.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Cerniglia in Round 1 is not an easy opener by any means.

Navy on lockdown, so that may help

 

[PSU Mike]

Oh now that I agree with. I dont think hes struggling with a cut either. But if he is, getting him early could help. I'll ask this too, not really two types of scenarios was it? Both times the two met, Heinselman didnt really have to worry about weighing in again right?

True, but the lapse b/w weigh in and match time wasn’t so great that he was going to go full Dake Saturday night 2011.

 

[McScoreley]

You can argue Max and Young got good draws to get to the semis. Bull got a tough quarter but I think Mekhi being in the semis is a bit overblown if he wasn't even healthy enough to compete at ACCs. Even if some of Warner, ADS or Cass loses the quarters, they'll go on a run in the backside. (Cass might rack up quite a bit of pins) Spencer, Kemerer and Eierman will bulldoze to the finals likely.

Iowa as shown by the numbers ultimately controls their own fate and can lock it up pretty early. They have a huge margin of error similar to us in 2019 when we had Shak (a 2 seed) DNP.

 

[Eastern HWT]

WORST draw of the tournament:

141 Grant Willits -Oregon St. won the PAC 10 by beating Real Woods - Stanford in Finals and gets #12 seed . His reward the #21 seed from Standford -REAL WOODS!!

 

[js8793]

So what do you think? Are you happy about Iowas draws? PSU's.

Mostly happy with Iowa's. Marinelli's isn't ideal and Warner's isn't great. Brands' sucks. 184 is a total mess. Bolen got completely hosed. Somewhat balanced out by the fact it gives Brooks a tougher semi, but I don't think it matters. I think Murin is in the best quarter to make the semis. Don't love Desanto's quarter, but I think he'll be fine. Would prefer to not have Red in the quarters at 141, but feel good overall having Lee/Rivera opposite. Don't love 174. Would have preferred Labriola on the other side.

For PSU, I feel good. I think some of your dangerous guys got rough draws. Heinselman should take care of Howard. Cerniglia is a tough 1st round match for Berge, but he could also make the semis out of that quarter. He'll be in dogfights all the way. Hope his head is okay. Wittlake should dispatch Joe Lee. Schultz should beat Beard, but that will be close. Kerk won't be making a deep frontside run. Starocci got a cakewalk to at least the semis. Anything less than 2nd is a huge letdown imo. O'Malley is a potential trap match though. Good upperbody. He pinned Kennedy in a double overs throw this fall. If I'm a PSU fan, I probably prefer Desanto at the 3 because I don't think there's any way he beats RBY again. Myers is at least a bit of an unknown.

One caveat is I'm waiting on interactive brackets, so I haven't looked to see how some of these backside draws shake out. But first glance, I'm fine from a fan perspective. Somewhat frustrated by the lack of consistency overall, but glad they didn't just go with the matrix chaos seeds.

 

[Ian]

Iowa will have to crap the bed to not have this wrapped up on Saturday morning. A 50+ spread without bonus based on seeds? Pretty dominate. The race will be for second place which PSU will love to have in a punt year. Should be fun cause it always is but give the Hawks their due. That’s one heck of a lineup they have developed. You gotta have at three winners to dominate. They have 4 most likely!

 

[johnstownsteel]

You can argue Max and Young got good draws to get to the semis. Bull got a tough quarter but I think Mekhi being in the semis is a bit overblown if he wasn't even healthy enough to compete at ACCs. Even if some of Warner, ADS or Cass loses the quarters, they'll go on a run in the backside. (Cass might rack up quite a bit of pins) Spencer, Kemerer and Eierman will bulldoze to the finals likely.

Iowa as shown by the numbers ultimately controls their own fate and can lock it up pretty early. They have a huge margin of victory similar to us in 2019 when we had Shak (a 2 seed) DNP.

I like that Berge could see Young early. This is Nationals and just like every year we are going to see some surprising results even in the early rounds. Aside from Spencer, I would not be surprised to see any Iowa wrestler get beat even against those we'd expect to bulldoze way to the finals. Everyone is predicting a runaway and it's probably smart to do but I think its going to be a lot tighter than people expect.

 

[Mcnulty7310]

Hearing Alirez is a scratch for Nationals. If they replace him, I hope Bartlett gets the spot.

 

[dunkej01]

Team scores based solely on the seeds, using only implied placement and advancement points, without factoring in any possible bonus points.

RANK	SCHOOL	PTS
1	Iowa	126.5
2	Penn State	72
3	NC State	63.5
4	Virginia Tech	61.5
5	Missouri	60
6	Nebraska	54.5
7	Michigan	53.5
8	Oklahoma State	50
9	Arizona State	46.5
10	Ohio State	36
11	Pittsburgh	34
11	Minnesota	34
13	Iowa State	31.5
14	Northwestern	29.5
15	Central Michigan	28
16	Rutgers	24.5
16	Northern Iowa	24.5
18	Utah Valley	22.5
19	North Carolina	21
20	Rider	20
21	Oregon State	18.5

 

[js8793]

Hearing Alirez is a scratch for Nationals. If they replace him, I hope Bartlett gets the spot.

He would end up with Sasso first round if that's the case (I would think).

However, I think Ed Scott is probably ahead of Bartlett on the list. Win over finesilver probably gives him the edge.

 

[RoarLions1]

I guess I should know this but isnt there another weight in friday morning? Unlike after a dual weighin, Heinselman cant really eat and refuel right?

Weigh-ins are two hours or sooner before the start time of competition
on Thursday, and one hour or sooner before the start of competition on Friday and Saturday. Also, there's a 1-pound allowance on day 2, and an additional 1-pound allowance on day 3.

 

[El-Jefe]

WORST draw of the tournament:

141 Grant Willits -Oregon St. won the PAC 10 by beating Real Woods - Stanford in Finals and gets #12 seed . His reward the #21 seed from Standford -REAL WOODS!!

Joe Lee's draw is worse.

But, yeah, I wish the NCAA would put in the very minimal effort to avoid these opening rematches.

 

[McScoreley]

Iowa will have to crap the bed to not have this wrapped up on Saturday morning. A 50+ spread without bonus based on seeds? Pretty dominate. The race will be for second place which PSU will love to have in a punt year. Should be fun cause it always is but give the Hawks their due. That’s one heck of a lineup they have developed. You gotta have at three winners to dominate. They have 4 most likely!

Similar story to last year - they are about a 50 point favorite by seed.

 

[McScoreley]

Joe Lee's draw is worse.

But, yeah, I wish the NCAA would put a very minimal effort into avoiding these opening rematches.

Joe got what he earned unfortunately. A 6-5 record, 8th at Big Tens will get you in the 20s.

 

[Lyons212]

WORST draw of the tournament:

141 Grant Willits -Oregon St. won the PAC 10 by beating Real Woods - Stanford in Finals and gets #12 seed . His reward the #21 seed from Standford -REAL WOODS!!

There should be a rule, you cannot wrestle someone from the same conference in the first round of the tournament. That is the case for the hoops tournament.

 

[johnstownsteel]

He would end up with Sasso first round if that's the case (I would think).

However, I think Ed Scott is probably ahead of Bartlett on the list. Win over finesilver probably gives him the edge.

Sasso would be pissed. Lol

 

[Firemans2711]

There should be a rule, you cannot wrestle someone from the same conference in the first round of the tournament. That is the case for the hoops tournament.

Wasn’t this the case until about 5 years ago?

 

[El-Jefe]

Joe got what he earned unfortunately. A 6-5 record, 8th at Big Tens will get you in the 20s.

Joe got the seed he earned.

Wittlake should not be a 10, unless this is how they seeded:

Lee should've opened with Weber.

 

[okinburg1]

Well, the simulator says that we have a chance...

penn state wins	iowa wins	nc state wins	va tech wins	missouri wins	oklahoma state wins	nebraska wins
1.5%​	97.6%​	0.3%​	0.1%​	0.5%​	0.0%​	0.1%​

So you're sayin there's a chance!

 

[dunkej01]

 

[johnstownsteel]

View embedded media

Gotta admit, gonna miss watching Spyker penciling Griffith into the PSU lineup this summer...

 

[dunkej01]

 

[1032004]

125- Think Robbie got screwed, how does Ragusin get ranked soo much higher when Robbie just beat him at Big Ten

Yeah overall I think the seeds look OK but this might be the worst seeding job IMO. I guess I could see Ragusin being higher since he beat DeAugustino who Howard lost to, but 12 spots apart is crazy.

 

[RoarLions1]

Wasn’t this the case until about 5 years ago?

It was the rule, but longer ago than 5 years. It's been at least 9 or 10.

 

[CurtisLoew40]

Well the NCAA made sure the big 12 197s had little chance to do much. If they all four win they face each other in the exact same matchups as the big12 semi final. Smh. The second best conference getting shit on badly but no surprise.