OK, this was a huge pain in the ass, so I am not sure if I will do it again before the final tournament seeds come out. Especially if no one cares.
But, I used an online expansion calculator to turn my probability of AAing by seed into the probability of each discrete number of AAs per team. I only did this for the 18 teams that have at least two expected AA's.
Now, in addition to seeing the expected AA's, you can see how the distribution shakes out for each number of AA's from 0 to 10, along with the most probable result.
All of this was done with the final pre-season Wrestlestat rankings (again assuming rank = seed).
The one big caveat is that true freshmen who have not wrestled in a college open are not included in the rankings yet, as near as I can tell.
Looks like Minnesota is safe for another year. At least until Lilledahl is ranked? Probably even then.
But, I used an online expansion calculator to turn my probability of AAing by seed into the probability of each discrete number of AAs per team. I only did this for the 18 teams that have at least two expected AA's.
Now, in addition to seeing the expected AA's, you can see how the distribution shakes out for each number of AA's from 0 to 10, along with the most probable result.
All of this was done with the final pre-season Wrestlestat rankings (again assuming rank = seed).
The one big caveat is that true freshmen who have not wrestled in a college open are not included in the rankings yet, as near as I can tell.
Looks like Minnesota is safe for another year. At least until Lilledahl is ranked? Probably even then.
