Next Year

[NOVABuck45]

He’s 2-1 vs top 15 pac 12 teams (beat #11 and #8, lost to #9). usc/Washington/ucla aren’t going to be top 5 teams next year. Probably not top 10.

I’m honestly less concerned about the newcomers with the caveat that Washington is the game after OSU which brings its own set of challenges assuming OSU goes to script.

Yeah.....Washington loses Penix and several of their offensive weapons. As much as you all complain about your offense, their defense is just as bad. And with the game in Happy Valley next year, you all will win that game.

Going to USC will be interesting, assuming Lincoln Riley is even there. I suspect Malachi Nelson will be their QB, and they'll have decent firepower on offense per usual. But their home field is no advantage at all, and their defense will be trash. You'll win that game.

You all have a legit chance to go 11-1.

 

[LandoComando]

He’s 2-1 vs top 15 pac 12 teams (beat #11 and #8, lost to #9). usc/Washington/ucla aren’t going to be top 5 teams next year. Probably not top 10.

I’m honestly less concerned about the newcomers with the caveat that Washington is the game after OSU which brings its own set of challenges assuming OSU goes to script.

Why are we counting bowl games?
Washington/Oregon/USC aren't Ohio State/Michigan but they're better than the other 10 teams on our schedule

 

[fastlax16]

Why are we counting bowl games?
Washington/Oregon/USC aren't Ohio State/Michigan but they're better than the other 10 teams on our schedule

Because they played the games and if he was 0-3 people would be knocking him for it.

We don’t play Oregon next year.

Washington loses Penix and hasn’t shown they reload. They’ve played close games this year against teams much worse than us. USC loses Williams. USC still won’t have a defense.

I’m not saying they’re guaranteed wins but I don’t think they’re lost causes like OSU and UM were before the games even started. There’s nothing historically that says he can’t win those games because, as you noted, none of those teams are at UM/OSUs level.

 

[donboy6499]

Yeah.....Washington loses Penix and several of their offensive weapons. As much as you all complain about your offense, their defense is just as bad. And with the game in Happy Valley next year, you all will win that game.

Going to USC will be interesting, assuming Lincoln Riley is even there. I suspect Malachi Nelson will be their QB, and they'll have decent firepower on offense per usual. But their home field is no advantage at all, and their defense will be trash. You'll win that game.

You all have a legit chance to go 11-1.

Thanks for the kind words, but this could have been written any year between 2016 and now. And yet…

 

[LandoComando]

Because they played the games and if he was 0-3 people would be knocking him for it.

We don’t play Oregon next year.

Washington loses Penix and hasn’t shown they reload. They’ve played close games this year against teams much worse than us. USC loses Williams. USC still won’t have a defense.

I’m not saying they’re guaranteed wins but I don’t think they’re lost causes like OSU and UM were before the games even started. There’s nothing historically that says he can’t win those games because, as you noted, none of those teams are at UM/OSUs level.

Fair enough--I wouldn't be knocking him at all for them but, yes, some would.
Agreed--they're not on that level but I'm not confident in us beating anyone that's a good team right now. USC and Washington may not be on that level next year with the departure of their QBs but after watching yesterday's game I have zero confidence. I think Washington is a better coached team with comparable talent. USC--yeah, their D is horrendous but can we take advantage of that?
Should be interesting next year. Less than 10-2 won't be acceptable.

 

[fastlax16]

Yeah.....Washington loses Penix and several of their offensive weapons. As much as you all complain about your offense, their defense is just as bad. And with the game in Happy Valley next year, you all will win that game.

The problem with Washington next year has nothing to do with Washington. The results of the games played immediately after losing to OSU are not great.

2017- L Michigan state
2018- L Michigan state
2019- W rutgers
2020- L maryland
2021- w maryland
2022- w indiana
2023- w indiana

Even the wins have tended to be ugly (see this year’s indiana game.

This is one of the reasons why I think it’s bullshit osu and um play the final week every season. I want to see them dust themselves off the week after a heartbreaking loss to the other.

 

[PSU20]

It's difficult to predict who returns because existing players could enter the portal but here goes. Correct me if I'm wrong.

QB: Allar, Pribula, & Smolik all return
RB: Allen & Singleton return
WR: I think Lambert-Smith, Wallace, Cephas, McClain, and Saunders can all return
TE: Johnson, Warren, and Dinkins can all return but my guess is that at least 1 moves on
OL: Nourzad, Wallace, Wormley, and Fashnau will all be gone. That leaves Nelson, Ioane, Birchmeier, and Williams.

DE: Isaac, Vilbert, and Chop will be gone. That leaves Sutton, Fisher, and Vanover
DT: Beamon & Ellies are gone. Izzard, Ford, Durant, and Van den Berg
LB: Jacobs gone. Carter, King, and Rojas
CB: Dixon, Hardy, and King will be gone. That leaves only Cam Miller and some young kids.
S: Ellis is gone. Will Jaylen Reed come back? Wheatley & Winston.

K: We need 2 new kickers

So it looks like a solid offense except our OL will be young and the existing WRs returning might not be the best. The defense could be good except for CB.

Won't Vilbert return? He certainly has eligibility and has barely played.

 

[j-buff]

It’s obvious Allar is the wrong QB for a Franklin offense. The offense works much better with QB who can run it opens up the offense. I remember the the first few games under Trace the offense struggled once he started running the ball the offense flourished and that was with a offensive line that was inferrior to what we have now. The way I see it we are playing checkers and the elite teams are playing chess.

 

[fastlax16]

Fair enough--I wouldn't be knocking him at all for them but, yes, some would.
Agreed--they're not on that level but I'm not confident in us beating anyone that's a good team right now. USC and Washington may not be on that level next year with the departure of their QBs but after watching yesterday's game I have zero confidence. I think Washington is a better coached team with comparable talent. USC--yeah, their D is horrendous but can we take advantage of that?
Should be interesting next year. Less than 10-2 won't be acceptable.

To be fair, based on arguments you’ve made previously, you wouldn’t even consider USC a good win this season since they’re unranked… I think it’s 50/50 next years edition is any better. Replace their helmet with UCLA and no one here is doom and gloom about that game.

 

[LandoComando]

To be fair, based on arguments you’ve made previously, you wouldn’t even consider USC a good win this season since they’re unranked… I think it’s 50/50 next years edition is any better. Replace their helmet with UCLA and no one here is doom and gloom about that game.

USC isn't a good team this year but it's not because they're unranked. There's ranked teams that aren't good either.

I'm guessing they'll be better next year but you're right that's far from a given. Riley has been very successful before and he's going to be feeling a lot of pressure next year. A new DC maybe they're good again. Still USC is better than anyone we beat this year with the possible exception of Iowa. Iowa's just tough to take seriously with that offense which might be as bad as USC's defense lol

 

[KCLion]

Because they played the games and if he was 0-3 people would be knocking him for it.

We don’t play Oregon next year.

Washington loses Penix and hasn’t shown they reload. They’ve played close games this year against teams much worse than us. USC loses Williams. USC still won’t have a defense.

I’m not saying they’re guaranteed wins but I don’t think they’re lost causes like OSU and UM were before the games even started. There’s nothing historically that says he can’t win those games because, as you noted, none of those teams are at UM/OSUs level.

How do you know Washington won’t reload? They have a second year coach who reloaded at the lower division to win multiple national titles.

I haven’t been impressed with their defense this year, but to be fair, they haven’t been playing against our offense.

 

[SR108]

The offense will suck again. Franklin has to completely overhaul the staff on that side of the ball which will lead to a bunch of guys transferring out.

If I’m Franklin, I’m backing up a truck of cash to keep Manny around. Because losing both coordinators this off-season could mean really dark days ahead in the new BIG.

I think people are over estimating the new arrivals to the league. The only team that may be on Michigan and or TOSU level is Oregon. We could beat all three of the other teams even with this offense.

 

[PAgeologist]

It’s obvious Allar is the wrong QB for a Franklin offense. The offense works much better with QB who can run it opens up the offense. I remember the the first few games under Trace the offense struggled once he started running the ball the offense flourished and that was with a offensive line that was inferrior to what we have now. The way I see it we are playing checkers and the elite teams are playing chess.

And to make things even sadder and more frustrating, is the staff refuses to adjust the game plan to Allars strengths. Instead choosing to destroy his confidence and causing him to look worse every game.

I'd rather see Beau run this offense. He may not be able to throw well, but he is a running threat. At this point Allar can't throw well, plus he doesn't have the wheels needed to be a regular threat. Would Beaus running threat cause adjustments in defenses that will allow receivers to be open?

 

[bdgan]

I'd rather see Beau run this offense. He may not be able to throw well, but he is a running threat. At this point Allar can't throw well, plus he doesn't have the wheels needed to be a regular threat. Would Beaus running threat cause adjustments in defenses that will allow receivers to be open?

Allar is big, strong, and has a really good arm. He seems to have a good feel for the pocket against lesser opponents. Remember his performance in week 1 vs WVa? But when the pass rush is stronger and receivers are covered more closely he can't handle it. He has to find a way to slow the game down in his head. If he does he'll turn out to be a great PSU QB. If he can't he'll be one of the weaker QBs we've seen.

The staff hasn't helped him at all. For example only 1 quick swing pass to RBs on 1st down. It went to Singleton for 6 yards. Easy, 2nd and 4, and Allar has confidence. We did that exactly once.

The scary thing is that most of us fans have watched enough football to know that you want to give a struggling QB some easy throws to build confidence. Apparently Franklin knows it too based on his post game presser comments but for some reason we don't do it. Does the staff get afraid or confused in these games? It certainly seems like they can't handle the pressure situations.

 

[fastlax16]

How do you know Washington won’t reload? They have a second year coach who reloaded at the lower division to win multiple national titles.

I haven’t been impressed with their defense this year, but to be fair, they haven’t been playing against our offense.

They don’t have another heisman contending qb waiting in the wings and they’ve just been getting by some mediocre competition.

Their recruiting class this year was 26.

Last year was 95…

Next years is currently ranked 40th.

I don’t think they’re reloading with a top 5 team next year. If I was gambling I’d bet they win fewer games next season.

 

[LandoComando]

They don’t have another heisman contending qb waiting in the wings and they’ve just been getting by some mediocre competition.

Their recruiting class this year was 26.

Last year was 95…

Next years is currently ranked 40th.

I don’t think they’re reloading with a top 5 team next year. If I was gambling I’d bet they win fewer games next season.

Penix wasn't exactly elite at Indiana
Recruiting classes matter less with the portal truthfully
Logic states they take a step back--we're losing 3 potential first round picks--do we take a step back? Hopefully we use the portal

 

[fastlax16]

Penix wasn't exactly elite at Indiana
Recruiting classes matter less with the portal truthfully
Logic states they take a step back--we're losing 3 potential first round picks--do we take a step back? Hopefully we use the portal

They matter less but it’s not a cure all especially when you’ve got something like the 95th ranked class thrown in.

The odds they strike lightning twice in the portal are also not great.

Not sure why it’s controversial stating Washington is not likely a top 5 team next year. If someone wants to lay money down I’ll take that bet.

 

[LandoComando]

They matter less but it’s not a cure all especially when you’ve got something like the 95th ranked class thrown in.

The odds they strike lightning twice in the portal are also not great.

Not sure why it’s controversial stating Washington is not likely a top 5 team next year. If someone wants to lay money down I’ll take that bet.

I'm not even sure they're a top 5 team this year--we'll see how things play out but I think we're taking it as you seeing them as someone we should be able to beat. I have zero confidence in that happening right now. I do trust DeBoer to find a QB

 

[blair10]

Joe Moorhead had a mediocre QB when he was the OC at Oregon. They went to Columbus Ohio and embarrassed the Buckeyes because Moorhead out schemed the hell out of Ohio State.

Without a doubt, Moorhead was the greatest OC in Penn State history. I give coach Franklin credit for finding Moorhead.

Unfortunately, since Moorhead’s departure, the Penn State offense has been steadily in decline reaching the current dumpster fire level.

I would pay Moorhead a fortune to come back. Moorhead is light years ahead of Yurcich.

 

[fastlax16]

I'm not even sure they're a top 5 team this year--we'll see how things play out but I think we're taking it as you seeing them as someone we should be able to beat. I have zero confidence in that happening right now. I do trust DeBoer to find a QB

Franklin is 9-14 against ranked teams (at kickoff) since 2016. 10 of the 14 losses osu/um.

 

[LandoComando]

Franklin is 9-14 against ranked teams (at kickoff) since 2016. 10 of the 14 losses osu/um.

"Ranked teams" is misleading.
1-12 as an underdog since 2018.

 

[fastlax16]

"Ranked teams" is misleading.
1-12 as an underdog since 2018.

And that is going to skew heavily osu/um as well. Back to the point, I don’t see Washington being a team we’re a home dog to next season.

 

[LandoComando]

And that is going to skew heavily osu/um as well. Back to the point, I don’t see Washington being a team we’re a home dog to next season.

I guess we shall see. I agree Washington isn't Michigan but still a much tougher opponent than anyone we beat this year. I'm not expecting a win unless our offense is entirely different next year.

 

[fastlax16]

I guess we shall see. I agree Washington isn't Michigan but still a much tougher opponent than anyone we beat this year. I'm not expecting a win unless our offense is entirely different next year.

What’s franklins record in games we’re 3 point or less favorites.

 

[LandoComando]

What’s franklins record in games we’re 3 point or less favorites.

I don't have that info--do you?

 

[rrdd2021]

It's not impossible but I'm not sure how you could truly be worried about Penn State at this moment.
Oregon and Michigan will be breaking in new QBs as well

Michigan loses a TON after this year. I expect them to take a step back.

It will be tough next year to evaluate teams - especially the ones coming in from the PAC. The problem is that very few of those teams play defense. It should be interesting to see how they fit in. The B1G East - at least this year - is all about defenses.

 

[rrdd2021]

UCLA, USC, and definitely Wisconsin should be beatable. Wisky got manhandled by lowly Northwestern today. I don't know what's going on there with Fickell.
OSU and Washington will most likely be losses, although both games are at PSU. USC is at USC, that can be a tough place to play.
I would guess 9-3, although I could see 8-4 or even 7-5 if there are key injuries or the wheels otherwise come off. If Franklin pulls his head out of his posterior, he could go 11-1.

Wisky is a head scratcher. One week they look like world beaters, the next.........

Those B1G West teams better enjoy this year. Once they restructure the conference - especially with those PAC teams entering - their easy path to the B1G conference championship game is over.

 

[rrdd2021]

I wouldn't write you guys off in that game just yet.

We lose Harrison, Egbuka, Stover, and Henderson. That's a ton of firepower. Granted, McCord returns and I expect Carnell Tate to become our next stud WR. True freshman Jeremiah Smith is arguably the top WR prospect since Julio Jones, and we have some solid RB and WR prospects. But we also lose a TON on defense.

Next year *could* be a bit of a transition year for us. And by that, I mean a 10-2 type of season. @ Oregon, @ PSU, and Michigan are our big games. I'd bet we lose 2 of those 3 -- probably @ Oregon and @ Penn State.

OSU goes through this turnover crap every year. Their depth is staggering and losing players of that caliber doesn't affect them like other programs.

 

[NOVABuck45]

OSU goes through this turnover crap every year. Their depth is staggering and losing players of that caliber doesn't affect them like other programs.

Well, it's not quite accurate to suggest that programs like OSU reload and are exactly as good (or better) no matter what. They do in fact take steps back. It's just that the steps are smaller. So, instead of 11-1, they may be only 10-2. That's what I'm envisioning next season.

Michigan will take a much bigger step back next year. As will Washington. 9-3 type seasons. I don't think our step back will be as large, but there's a very good chance we're not as good next year as this year. (and some would argue that we're not as good this year as last year given how good CJ was at QB)

 

[hoflane]

And with Joe they could never get a yard or two to close out and win a game when they needed it. They both had warts that cost the team winnable games.

Joe’s offense was just more exciting and the defense wasn’t as good as what’s been squandered the last two years

OSU goes through this turnover crap every year. Their depth is staggering and losing players of that caliber doesn't affect them like other programs.

You have to understand the source and amount of money pumped into OSU vs PSU. It’s apples and oranges in comparison. It shouldn’t be, but it is.

 

[fastlax16]

I don't have that info--do you?

Went and checked. Small sample size going back to 2018 if you exclude bowls.

Only 3 games have been 3 point or less spreads with us favored and 2 were 2020.

1-2 with the win being Auburn in 2022. Losses were Nebraska and Iowa 2020.

Moving from a FG favorite to a TD favorite (or less) he's 10-3 with the two losses above plus 2021 MSU.

 

[LandoComando]

Went and checked. Small sample size going back to 2018 if you exclude bowls.

Only 3 games have been 3 point or less spreads with us favored and 2 were 2020.

1-2 with the win being Auburn in 2022. Losses were Nebraska and Iowa 2020.

Moving from a FG favorite to a TD favorite he's 10-3 with the two losses above plus 2021 MSU.

And I think you know my feelings on Harsin with that win lol
10-3 is decent though in that scenario. It's just the complete inability to win when it's not obvious.