Nico - What does he need to do...?

[nagromth]

I have been a Nico fan for 5 years now. Love how he starts out our matches, high energy, high pace, almost always a guaranteed win. However, it seems like his playbook is understood by 2 or 3 other wrestlers that use his aggressive style against him and do the slide by and counters, late in the 3rd prd. to snatch a close win from him.

What does Nico have to do to turn these close losses to wins and finish at the top of the podium at MSG?

TIA for your constructive insights.

 

[James P. Whitters III]

I have been a Nico fan for 5 years now. Love how he starts out our matches, high energy, high pace, almost always a guaranteed win. However, it seems like his playbook is understood by 2 or 3 other wrestlers that use his aggressive style against him and do the slide by and counters, late in the 3rd prd. to snatch a close win from him.

What does Nico have to do to turn these close losses to close wins?

TIA for your constructive insights.

Finish his shots. JG same deal. Easier said than done. I do think Nico ended up with his leg in a bad place which caused him to release the leg. That takedown I don't want to call a fluke, but not likely to happen that way again.

 

[clucas]

No worries...he was right there with the returning national champ and got caught in a crazy position. The two matches he has lost this year, he could have won just as easily. He has just as good a chance as winning B10's/Nationals as any other 125 pounder in the field. He'll be right there in the mix.

 

[Annieat285]

He needs to learn to wrestle on top and get out reliably. He lost to Dance because of what happened on the mat. It's been 5 years of generally ineptitude on top. He may be close to beating Dance and NaTo but the bottom line is he's 0-2. Those guys are all so good on their feet and Nico doesn't have the arsenal on top to seperate himself. I actually think Nico has close to 0 chance of winning nationals. He's very, very good, but he'll have to beat some combination of Gilman, Dance and NaTo 2 matches in a row to do it and I just don't see it happening. I hope he surprises me, but I've seen nothing this season to indicate he's the best guy at 125.

 

[hlstone]

He needs to learn to wrestle on top and get out reliably. He lost to Dance because of what happened on the mat. It's been 5 years of generally ineptitude on top. He may be close to beating Dance and NaTo but the bottom line is he's 0-2. Those guys are all so good on their feet and Nico doesn't have the arsenal on top to seperate himself. I actually think Nico has close to 0 chance of winning nationals. He's very, very good, but he'll have to beat some combination of Gilman, Dance and NaTo 2 matches in a row to do it and I just don't see it happening. I hope he surprises me, but I've seen nothing this season to indicate he's the best guy at 125.

Wow Annie, that was brutally honest. I agree

 

[dunkej01]

Too much respect for nico.....the worst thing I can say is he might not reach his goals and this is very hard to fathom after watching him beat sanders in philly.

 

[CSauertiegPSU]

He needs to learn to wrestle on top and get out reliably. He lost to Dance because of what happened on the mat. It's been 5 years of generally ineptitude on top. He may be close to beating Dance and NaTo but the bottom line is he's 0-2. Those guys are all so good on their feet and Nico doesn't have the arsenal on top to seperate himself. I actually think Nico has close to 0 chance of winning nationals. He's very, very good, but he'll have to beat some combination of Gilman, Dance and NaTo 2 matches in a row to do it and I just don't see it happening. I hope he surprises me, but I've seen nothing this season to indicate he's the best guy at 125.

Idk, he lost to Dance because of mental mistake and nothing more. If he cuts him rather than riding too long and getting reversed he wins that match

 

[Annieat285]

Idk, he lost to Dance because of mental mistake and nothing more. If he cuts him rather than riding too long and getting reversed he wins that match

And that happened on the mat. If I remember correctly he then got ridden out in SV to lose the match.

 

[CSauertiegPSU]

And that happened on the mat. If I remember correctly he then got ridden out in SV to lose the match.

But he also rode Dance for a minute plus, so it's not like he's incapable. I get what you're saying but if Nico wrestles a smarter match there he walks off with a fairly comfortable 4-1 victory including a RT point.

 

[LemonPie]

He needs to beat Gilman, get the 3 seed, and then make the finals by beating Dance.

 

[CSauertiegPSU]

He needs to beat Gilman, get the 3 seed, and then make the finals by beating Dance.

This would be the ideal scenario, yes.

 

[Brian LB-U]

He needs to learn to wrestle on top and get out reliably. He lost to Dance because of what happened on the mat. It's been 5 years of generally ineptitude on top. He may be close to beating Dance and NaTo but the bottom line is he's 0-2. Those guys are all so good on their feet and Nico doesn't have the arsenal on top to seperate himself. I actually think Nico has close to 0 chance of winning nationals. He's very, very good, but he'll have to beat some combination of Gilman, Dance and NaTo 2 matches in a row to do it and I just don't see it happening. I hope he surprises me, but I've seen nothing this season to indicate he's the best guy at 125.

"Close to zero chance", Really?? I disagree. Nico blew the match against Dance (gave up a bad escape point and later the reversal) and was in clean on the winning TD against NaTo only to get tripped up over his own feet (or whatever it was that happened - very odd).

 

[psualt]

i think he is so comfortable in his ability to win close scoring matches that he does not take many risks. This doesn't give you a lot of room for error. Did anyone really think there would be a real attempt at a takedown last night until late in that match?

 

[Allensville Amos]

He needs to learn to wrestle on top and get out reliably. He lost to Dance because of what happened on the mat. It's been 5 years of generally ineptitude on top. He may be close to beating Dance and NaTo but the bottom line is he's 0-2. Those guys are all so good on their feet and Nico doesn't have the arsenal on top to seperate himself. I actually think Nico has close to 0 chance of winning nationals. He's very, very good, but he'll have to beat some combination of Gilman, Dance and NaTo 2 matches in a row to do it and I just don't see it happening. I hope he surprises me, but I've seen nothing this season to indicate he's the best guy at 125.

"5 years of generally ineptitude on top"...C'mon man. Just off the top of my head, Nico over Waters on riding time in the 2013 semi's at the NCAAs. Oh, and Nico is not 0-1 vs Dance, he beat Dance pretty easily for 3rd at the 2014 NCAAs, including a riding time point! Nato didn't ride him at all so that loss had nothing to do with mat wrestling.

Maybe Nico's top game has suffered from the RS year he just spent doing mostly freestyle, but to say he's always been inept on top just isn't true.

As far as scenarios go, I got Nico beating Gilman in the semi's at B1Gs, he's 2-0 against Gilman, once in folk and once in free with Gilman scoring zero takedowns in those two matches. Then another crack at Nato. A win would likely get him the 2 seed with Dance #1. A loss to Nato and Mega would likely be the 3 seed behind Nato and Dance.

 

[gtown mike]

"Close to zero chance", Really?? I disagree. Nico blew the match against Dance (gave up a bad escape point and later the reversal) and was in clean on the winning TD against NaTo only to get tripped up over his own feet (or whatever it was that happened - very odd).

I may not go quite as far as zero chance, but I pretty much agree with Annie. I truly wish that I didn't. After the red shirt, I figured he'd be improved in at least one of the areas that he "struggled" (only against elite competition). He's still not that great on top and loses a lot of the scrambles (again, only against the elite, but who will he be wrestling at Big 10's and nat'ls?). I am sympathetic to many fans who always think the best for our guys, but I'm afraid I see a 4th place finish this year for Nico. Unfortunately all of the rankings are accurate.

 

[dunkej01]

Gilman s aggressiveness may be his undoing against nico and/or nato. I can't see Gillman going 3 periods with only half shots and staying in the ties

 

[SRATH]

I am a fan, not an expert. It appeared to me, OSU has some incredibly strong kids, but they are not going to wrestle for 7 minutes. They are going to do enough to not get called for stalling. It appeared to me many of their shots were not more than flopping to the mat and I would call it activity....not an attempt.

Same on bottom.

Sometimes you are going to have to change your style to beat some of these guys. I think NATO is more than happy going into overtime 1-1, then using superior strength to win at the end. I would do as little as possible......as little as possible and conserve my strength and try to get lucky in OT. It is a crappy way to win....but all folks remember from last night was NATO won 3-1, not that Nico pushed the pace the whole match.

 

[El-Jefe]

The premise of this thread is factually incorrect, or misleading at best. Going back to Nico's SO year, Tomasello yesterday is the only one. Maybe you could also make a case for Delgado with his retreating and ankle diving, though he would be unable to backpedal out of bounds this year, and he's gone anyway. That's it.

Dance and Gilman have combined for zero career takedowns against Nico, so they do not have any late 3rd period counter takedowns.

I can't say absolutely that the rest of the field has never taken him down. But I can say with 100% confidence that none of them are a threat to beat him.

 

[PSU-Knocker]

My impression of Nico's performance last evening was that he tried to hurry the the end of the match and rushed his shot. If he had taken it into overtime, he would have likely had a better outcome.

 

[Used2BEerie]

My impression of Nico's performance last evening was that he tried to hurry the the end of the match and rushed his shot. If he had taken it into overtime, he would have likely had a better outcome.

It looked to me the shot was fine and he either circled the wrong way on his attempted finish or thought he should try to stalemate off of his shot. Either way this led to Tomesello's counter.

 

[Annieat285]

The premise of this thread is factually incorrect, or misleading at best. Going back to Nico's SO year, Tomasello yesterday is the only one. Maybe you could also make a case for Delgado with his retreating and ankle diving, though he would be unable to backpedal out of bounds this year, and he's gone anyway. That's it.

Dance and Gilman have combined for zero career takedowns against Nico, so they do not have any late 3rd period counter takedowns.

I can't say absolutely that the rest of the field has never taken him down. But I can say with 100% confidence that none of them are a threat to beat him.

Then how come he is 0-2 vs wrestlers of comparable skill this season? The easiest and most accurate way to predict future behavior or performance is to review past experiences and extrapolate forwards. Nico is 0-2 in close matches this year. If you had to ask me what the most common result would be if he wrestled Tomasello/Dance/Gilman I would tell you it would be Nico losing a close match. The reason I would say that is because that's exactly what has happened thus far. There is absolutely zero evidence from this season to show that Nico is capable of winning a close match vs the 1-3 ranked wrestlers in the weight class. Maybe there was in seasons prior, but this year he's fallen short twice. That leads me to believe he will again. Of course we're talking about 60/40 splits as far as who will win in those situations, not some landslid which might be inferred from my critical language, but it's always more reasonable to assume the outcome in the future will be the same as that which has repeated itself in the past.
I do think that Nico has an approximately a 40% chance to beat Dance, Gilman and Tomasello. The problem for me (and this is as person rooted in logic to a fault) I don't see him doing something he has failed to do twice this year (that is to beat Dance or Nato (and I'm lumping Gilman into this group because he's looked very good this year)) twice consecutively at Nationals. I unfairly and inaccurately exaggerated when I said "near zero" percent chance of doing so earlier, but if you asked me what the most likely result at Nationals is, Nico getting 1/2 or 3/4, I would (and I think anyone who has objectively watched Nico wrestle this year would agree) take Nico to get 3/4 as the most likely result, then 2nd and lastly 1st.
I get that a lot of people feel that Nico has been close to beating NaTo and Dance and that's a correct and perfectly viable assertion which I agree with. He has been close both times, but he lost both times. 125 is just an exceedingly close weight class. All those guys are right there with one another, but Tomasello seems to find a way to win in those close situations against other top guys where Nico has not.
Lastly I'd like to say that I hope I'm wrong in all this, but I personally have a easier time (due to my general outlook on life and past experiences) approaching these sort of scenarios as expecting past results to continue and being pleasantly surprised when they don't versus expecting Nico to win when all the information I've observed tells me that it's likely he won't. So here's me looking forward to being surprised. I want someone to be able to tell me "I told you so" in person at MSG.

 

[T J]

What does Nico have to do

Deliver ZPain...

"That's the Chicago.. er um, the Penn State way!"

 

[Allensville Amos]

Then how come he is 0-2 vs wrestlers of comparable skill this season? The easiest and most accurate way to predict future behavior or performance is to review past experiences and extrapolate forwards. Nico is 0-2 in close matches this year. If you had to ask me what the most common result would be if he wrestled Tomasello/Dance/Gilman I would tell you it would be Nico losing a close match. The reason I would say that is because that's exactly what has happened thus far. There is absolutely zero evidence from this season to show that Nico is capable of winning a close match vs the 1-3 ranked wrestlers in the weight class. Maybe there was in seasons prior, but this year he's fallen short twice. That leads me to believe he will again. Of course we're talking about 60/40 splits as far as who will win in those situations, not some landslid which might be inferred from my critical language, but it's always more reasonable to assume the outcome in the future will be the same as that which has repeated itself in the past.
I do think that Nico has an approximately a 40% chance to beat Dance, Gilman and Tomasello. The problem for me (and this is as person rooted in logic to a fault) I don't see him doing something he has failed to do twice this year (that is to beat Dance or Nato (and I'm lumping Gilman into this group because he's looked very good this year)) twice consecutively at Nationals. I unfairly and inaccurately exaggerated when I said "near zero" percent chance of doing so earlier, but if you asked me what the most likely result at Nationals is, Nico getting 1/2 or 3/4, I would (and I think anyone who has objectively watched Nico wrestle this year would agree) take Nico to get 3/4 as the most likely result, then 2nd and lastly 1st.
I get that a lot of people feel that Nico has been close to beating NaTo and Dance and that's a correct and perfectly viable assertion which I agree with. He has been close both times, but he lost both times. 125 is just an exceedingly close weight class. All those guys are right there with one another, but Tomasello seems to find a way to win in those close situations against other top guys where Nico has not.
Lastly I'd like to say that I hope I'm wrong in all this, but I personally have a easier time (due to my general outlook on life and past experiences) approaching these sort of scenarios as expecting past results to continue and being pleasantly surprised when they don't versus expecting Nico to win when all the information I've observed tells me that it's likely he won't. So here's me looking forward to being surprised. I want someone to be able to tell me "I told you so" in person at MSG.

It must have been a miracle that Tomasello won it last year. He got beat by Dance, Gilman, and Waters last season. Had to go into the Big Tens the 3rd seed, he must have gone into the post season with less than a 40% chance to win it all?

And Gilman has looked very good this year, his best win was 9-1 over 5th ranked Klimara, Nico only beat Klimara 8-1, guess that means Gilman has a 60% chance to beat Mega!

Your argument doesn't appear to me to hold much water. The top 4 guys at this weight have for the most part beat one another, all in very close matches. Dance beat Gilman at Midlands last year. Gilman beat Dance at NCAA's. Gilman beat Tomasello in the Iowa-tOSU dual last season. Tomasello beat Gilman at B1Gs last season. True, Nato has a win over Nico and Nico has never beat Nato. But Nico has a win over Gilman, and Gilman has no win over Nico. Dance must have beat the odds to get that win over Nico this year having lost to him in the past, and Nato beat the odds by beating Dance this year having lost to him last year!

What it looks like to me is that you have 4 guys here that are all capable of beating each other on any given day. I guess you could say Tomasello has slightly separated himself from the others, with very close wins over Mega and Dance this season, and having won the most recent match with Gilman. That along with being the only guy here that got it done on the biggest stage. These are wrestlers, not numbers. Styles, or just who is a little more healthy or motivated on a given day can make the difference to guys so close in talent. I could see Nico taking 1st through 4th, same with Nato, or Gilman, or Dance. If you think you can extrapolate just how these guys will place, I suggest you go to Vegas and get rich. They will have odds on the NCAA tournament!

 

[NittanyChris]

I love Nico. Love his motor, intensity, guts and drive. Unfortunately, I tend to agree with Annie. He's got to make some type of adjustment (I don't know enough to know what type) to push him over the top against the top opponents. Neither Dance nor NATO did much of anything for the majority of the match only to pull it out on defensive maneuvers. Much the way that boring force, Delgado, did against Nico in the past. Something has to change. Just not sure what.

 

[jschrantz]

I love Nico. Love his motor, intensity, guts and drive. Unfortunately, I tend to agree with Annie. He's got to make some type of adjustment (I don't know enough to know what type) to push him over the top against the top opponents. Neither Dance nor NATO did much of anything for the majority of the match only to pull it out on defensive maneuvers. Much the way that boring force, Delgado, did against Nico in the past. Something has to change. Just not sure what.

I may get shot for saying this, sometimes the other guy is better at what he does though. We are currently spoiled with an embarrassment of riches and now any loss is over analyzed.

 

[NittanyChris]

Not shot, but I disagree. Nico has the ability to win it all, and I guess the point of the OP is to discuss what small adjustments he might make that will help him to do just that.

 

[Allensville Amos]

Over on the Iowa board they have pick'em contest every year for NCAAs. Maybe we should have one over here. Then we can all see just who does have a crystal ball.

 

[Lyco1990]

Wow I guess I'm ignorant, I was thinking the answer was much simpler. Mat sense. He offered a leg to Delgado and paid for it, same with Tomesello. They are waiting for the flexibility of Nico and train to capitalize. He is fine just push the pace and wrestle his match and he is on top. Dance was an anomaly. He is really smart and can use that to his advantage,if not over thought which is always the rub.

 

[AgSurfer]

This point might sound brain dead obvious, but I think that the real issue is that Nico needs to avoid making mistakes in critical matches against top level competitors. Both of his losses this year are due to mistakes on his part. He got out of position and made a strategic error against Dance, and his loss to Tomasello was more or less a positioning error too. I also think that he is quite capable of winning a national title this year if he wrestles at his best and does not repeat some of the errors that caused his losses.

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

Wow I guess I'm ignorant, I was thinking the answer was much simpler. Mat sense. He offered a leg to Delgado and paid for it, same with Tomesello. They are waiting for the flexibility of Nico and train to capitalize. He is fine just push the pace and wrestle his match and he is on top. Dance was an anomaly. He is really smart and can use that to his advantage,if not over thought which is always the rub.

He absolutely did not "offer a leg" to NATO Friday night. Mega made the shot with ~15 seconds remaining and had NATO dead to rights - was in very deep - but while finishing and stepping through with his legs, Mega's foot got caught in a morass of tangled body parts. Beyond that, after It got caught, NATO grabbed and torqued his ankle in a way that is supposed to be whistled dead as a "potentially dangerous" mover by NATO. It was extremely flukey and Mega had him dead to rights on the shot - NATO produced zero of his own offense and genuine shots the entire match. Mega was the aggressor the entire match. Hope Dance and NATO pull this nonsense at nationals with a quality official, they will likely be wrestling the entire 3rd period with a stall warning or worse. Like Mega's chances come March because he is the only wrestler of the top tier looking to control his destiny off his own offense and has the motor for a multi-day, multi-match tourney.

 

[royboy]

This point might sound brain dead obvious, but I think that the real issue is that Nico needs to avoid making mistakes in critical matches against top level competitors. Both of his losses this year are due to mistakes on his part. He got out of position and made a strategic error against Dance, and his loss to Tomasello was more or less a positioning error too. I also think that he is quite capable of winning a national title this year if he wrestles at his best and does not repeat some of the errors that caused his losses.

Agree. Nico does not have exceptional strength or exceptional quickness; it's hard to recover when he makes mistakes against the top competition. But Nico is tough, smart, and tireless. He has a shot at winning it all, though it will require errorless wrestling.

 

[Gray52]

Nico will end his PSU career as one of the all-time best. Do we really need to fix him?

 

[royboy]

Nico will end his PSU career as one of the all-time best. Do we really need to fix him?

I think it's mainly that PSU fans like and admire the guy so much that they REALLY want to see him on top of the podium. I do agree that even if he doesn't win a national championship, he should be greatly appreciated for his performance and the way he has represented Penn State. A fine young man.

 

[Lyco1990]

He absolutely did not "offer a leg" to NATO Friday night. Mega made the shot with ~15 seconds remaining and had NATO dead to rights - was in very deep - but while finishing and stepping through with his legs, Mega's foot got caught in a morass of tangled body parts. Beyond that, after It got caught, NATO grabbed and torqued his ankle in a way that is supposed to be whistled dead as a "potentially dangerous" mover by NATO. It was extremely flukey and Mega had him dead to rights on the shot - NATO produced zero of his own offense and genuine shots the entire match. Mega was the aggressor the entire match. Hope Dance and NATO pull this nonsense at nationals with a quality official, they will likely be wrestling the entire 3rd period with a stall warning or worse. Like Mega's chances come March because he is the only wrestler of the top tier looking to control his destiny off his own offense and has the motor for a multi-day, multi-match tourney.

Im sorry, I agree with you whole heartedly maybe my point was stated poorly. From my vantage point Mega's flexibility is what allowed NATO to pick the ankle. I also believe he will be fine if he does not overthink it. Roy is correct with regards to me atleast. Last year no one deserved a NC more than Matt Brown and I feel equally strong for Morgan and Mega.

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

Im sorry, I agree with you whole heartedly maybe my point was stated poorly. From my vantage point Mega's flexibility is what allowed NATO to pick the ankle. I also believe he will be fine if he does not overthink it. Roy is correct with regards to me atleast. Last year no one deserved a NC more than Matt Brown and I feel equally strong for Morgan and Mega.

NATO also grabbed, did not let go and pulled on Mega's headgear multiple times during the match - it is illegal to do this and the official didn't even give NATO a warning despite doing it multiple times. One occasion it was the top straps...on another occasion it was the chin strap which NATO pulled on so aggressively and for such an extended period, it nearly ripped Mega's headgear clean off and his chin-strap ended up across the middle of his face - nothing from the official, not even a warning?!?!

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

NATO also grabbed, did not let go and pulled on Mega's headgear multiple times during the match - it is illegal to do this and the official didn't even give NATO a warning despite doing it multiple times. One occasion it was the top straps...on another occasion it was the chin strap which NATO pulled on so aggressively and for such an extended period, it nearly ripped Mega's headgear clean off and his chin-strap ended up across the middle of his face - nothing from the official, not even a warning?!?!

BTW, I'm pretty sure grabbing the headgear, clothing or the mat and pulling on them (e.g., not letting go of them), are "Technical Violations" punished with a penalty point on the 1st and 2nd violation and 2 points on the third - there isn't any warnings on this violation. In the case of Mega's match Friday, not only was it not called as a clear Technical Violation as it is supposed to be, but the official didn't even give NATO a verbal warning on any of the occassions and it happened mutiple times.

 

[lauren68]

Nico can't improve his strength or couldn't make the weight. But he has the smarts and stamina that make him a great wrestler. He will win it all this year based on history. We all saw he just had to leave go and give up an escape against Dance to get the win. And against Nato that fluke leg position cost the match. Historically, Nico always improves during the the course of the year and shines during the tourny. He has the motor for multiple tough close matches. I don't think Gilman or Dance does. That just leaves Nato; and with a better late shot attempt by Nico, I like his chances. After everything else tourny wrestling is about pace and stamina (unless you can pin everyone early).

 

[jack66]

Cael: "Nico did a nice job, he just needs to slow down. Gave himself a chance to win there and just needs to slow down when he's finishing a shot."

 

[dsauer22]

I obviously dont have inside info, but from my perspective I feel Nico is just physically smaller than alot of the other 125's. I know some of these guys are cutting from walking weights of 150 or more. I cant imagine Nico is that big. He is technically top level and his heart and conditioning are there......I just think he lacks the horsepower to finish shots at times and that hurts him.

that being said, I think the top 4 at 125 this year are all pretty even and any one of them could be on top of the podium at the end. Pretty clear separation after those 4. Gilman is wrestling really well, and he's the only one we haven't seen vs the others to gauge him.

 

[PSUAllTheWay]

Cael: "Nico did a nice job, he just needs to slow down. Gave himself a chance to win there and just needs to slow down when he's finishing a shot."

Probably very true in general but when its the last 20 seconds of a bout, hard to slow down as the clock is working against you as well. If there had been 45 seconds left, I believe Nico would have done things differently. In my mind he knew he had to hurry and that cost him this time. Regardless, he's right there with Tomasello and can beat anyone in this weight class on any given day. I hope that day is March 19th.