Buccaneers AfterMath: It feels like the end is near for Jameis Winstons career in Tampa Bay
By Thomas Bassinger·1 hour ago
Sunday was the day you didn't think would come. It was the day you saw the end.
You know the exact moment: 3:27 p.m., when Ryan Fitzpatrick replaced Jameis Winston.
Winston was awful. Four interceptions. Four bad interceptions. So bad that it looked as if was throwing passes in the dark.
During one stretch in the third quarter, he threw two interceptions in three minutes, the second of which the Bengals returned for a touchdown. Down 34-16, coach Dirk Koetter had to make a change. He had to make a change because nothing had changed.
Before Tampa Bay drafted Winston in 2015, scouts identified his decision-making as a potential liability. They've been proven right. Since Winston entered the NFL, he has thrown multiple interceptions in 16 games, more than any other quarterback. He has had four such games this season. His 6.8 percent interception rate is more than double his career rate.
When Fitzpatrick entered the game late in the third quarter, it was as if someone had turned the lights on so that the Bucs could see the defenders wearing black jerseys. That's more than a feeling. The results prove it. Fitzpatrick dropped back to pass 20 times. He didn't lose a single yard or commit a single turnover. He did the improbable and rallied Tampa Bay to a 34-34 tie. Magic? No. Execution. The Bucs had a quarterback who knew what he was doing.
Forty-nine games into Winston's career, it seems as if Tampa Bay can't win with him. The Bucs are 19-30. More troubling: Their win percentage is trending in the wrong direction. They've lost 12 of the past 14 games in which Winston has played. And the two games they won? They won despite him, not because of him.
Is Winston 100 percent to blame for those losses? Of course not. Blame the defense. Blame the offensive line. Blame the wind. Sure, he has gained a lot of passing yards. They don't mean much, though, if you're regularly turning the ball over, which, by the way, he has been. In that 14-game span, he has thrown 19 touchdowns but committed 26 turnovers. That's not franchise quarterback material.
The bottom line: Winston isn't helping. For years, defenses have been sitting back and waiting for him to make mistakes. I'm reminded of cornerback Aqib Talib's response to a question I asked him after he intercepted Winston twice in a Broncos win over the Bucs: "We watched the tape. We saw how confident he was in his arm, so we knew we'd have five to six opportunities today to get our hands on the football."
That was two years ago.
So, where do the Bucs go from here?
In the near term, you identify the people who pushed hardest for Winston in 2015 and keep them as far away as possible from football operations. Even if their last names start with "G" and end in "lazer."
As far as who starts Sunday in Carolina? Koetter already has decided: It's Fitzpatrick. That's what I would do, too, if I were in "win now" mode, as the Bucs claimed they were when DeSean Jackson trade rumors surfaced over the weekend. It's hard to argue with the call. Both have thrown about the same number of passes this season, and Fitzpatrick is averaging about 3 more yards per attempt and has thrown three more touchdown passes and five fewer interceptions.
What happens, though, when Fitzpatrick throws three interceptions in a half? Do you bench him and go back to Winston? Probably. What happens when Winston throws three interceptions in a half again? Do you bench him and go back to Fitzpatrick? I don't know. Talk to the Rays. They invented the "opener." Maybe they have some ideas about alternating quarterbacks between quarters or even plays. Maybe one is better than the other in, say, early-down situations when the Bucs are trailing by three to eight points.
There is a case for going back to Winston eventually, and it has little to do with the fact that the team already has invested time, energy and money - so much money - in his development. That'd be irrational, like continuing to watch The Matrix Reloaded because you bought the DVD. As the great 20th-century poets Green Day once said, "You can't go forcing something if it's just not right."
The case, as flimsy as it is, goes something like this: You've watched football long enough to know where this is headed. What's the difference between five, six, seven, even eight wins? You're thinking about 2019, 2020. Winston's value is at its lowest point since he served a three-game suspension to start the season for violating the league's personal-conduct policy. The NFL trade deadline is 4 p.m. Tuesday, but there isn't going to be a long line of suitors for a benched quarterback who is a liability on and off the field. Your best course might be to try to rebuild his value enough to draw some interest in the offseason. It might seem like it in the moment, but he is not a terrible quarterback. He can play at a high level.
The downside to playing Winston? He is due $21 million next season, and that money becomes guaranteed if he suffers an injury. If the Bucs are concerned about that scenario, they might as well keep him on the bench.
And what an end would be. Winston would finish his Bucs career the same way he started it: by throwing a pick-six .
By Thomas Bassinger·1 hour ago
Sunday was the day you didn't think would come. It was the day you saw the end.
You know the exact moment: 3:27 p.m., when Ryan Fitzpatrick replaced Jameis Winston.
Winston was awful. Four interceptions. Four bad interceptions. So bad that it looked as if was throwing passes in the dark.
During one stretch in the third quarter, he threw two interceptions in three minutes, the second of which the Bengals returned for a touchdown. Down 34-16, coach Dirk Koetter had to make a change. He had to make a change because nothing had changed.
Before Tampa Bay drafted Winston in 2015, scouts identified his decision-making as a potential liability. They've been proven right. Since Winston entered the NFL, he has thrown multiple interceptions in 16 games, more than any other quarterback. He has had four such games this season. His 6.8 percent interception rate is more than double his career rate.
When Fitzpatrick entered the game late in the third quarter, it was as if someone had turned the lights on so that the Bucs could see the defenders wearing black jerseys. That's more than a feeling. The results prove it. Fitzpatrick dropped back to pass 20 times. He didn't lose a single yard or commit a single turnover. He did the improbable and rallied Tampa Bay to a 34-34 tie. Magic? No. Execution. The Bucs had a quarterback who knew what he was doing.
Forty-nine games into Winston's career, it seems as if Tampa Bay can't win with him. The Bucs are 19-30. More troubling: Their win percentage is trending in the wrong direction. They've lost 12 of the past 14 games in which Winston has played. And the two games they won? They won despite him, not because of him.
Is Winston 100 percent to blame for those losses? Of course not. Blame the defense. Blame the offensive line. Blame the wind. Sure, he has gained a lot of passing yards. They don't mean much, though, if you're regularly turning the ball over, which, by the way, he has been. In that 14-game span, he has thrown 19 touchdowns but committed 26 turnovers. That's not franchise quarterback material.
The bottom line: Winston isn't helping. For years, defenses have been sitting back and waiting for him to make mistakes. I'm reminded of cornerback Aqib Talib's response to a question I asked him after he intercepted Winston twice in a Broncos win over the Bucs: "We watched the tape. We saw how confident he was in his arm, so we knew we'd have five to six opportunities today to get our hands on the football."
That was two years ago.
So, where do the Bucs go from here?
In the near term, you identify the people who pushed hardest for Winston in 2015 and keep them as far away as possible from football operations. Even if their last names start with "G" and end in "lazer."
As far as who starts Sunday in Carolina? Koetter already has decided: It's Fitzpatrick. That's what I would do, too, if I were in "win now" mode, as the Bucs claimed they were when DeSean Jackson trade rumors surfaced over the weekend. It's hard to argue with the call. Both have thrown about the same number of passes this season, and Fitzpatrick is averaging about 3 more yards per attempt and has thrown three more touchdown passes and five fewer interceptions.
What happens, though, when Fitzpatrick throws three interceptions in a half? Do you bench him and go back to Winston? Probably. What happens when Winston throws three interceptions in a half again? Do you bench him and go back to Fitzpatrick? I don't know. Talk to the Rays. They invented the "opener." Maybe they have some ideas about alternating quarterbacks between quarters or even plays. Maybe one is better than the other in, say, early-down situations when the Bucs are trailing by three to eight points.
There is a case for going back to Winston eventually, and it has little to do with the fact that the team already has invested time, energy and money - so much money - in his development. That'd be irrational, like continuing to watch The Matrix Reloaded because you bought the DVD. As the great 20th-century poets Green Day once said, "You can't go forcing something if it's just not right."
The case, as flimsy as it is, goes something like this: You've watched football long enough to know where this is headed. What's the difference between five, six, seven, even eight wins? You're thinking about 2019, 2020. Winston's value is at its lowest point since he served a three-game suspension to start the season for violating the league's personal-conduct policy. The NFL trade deadline is 4 p.m. Tuesday, but there isn't going to be a long line of suitors for a benched quarterback who is a liability on and off the field. Your best course might be to try to rebuild his value enough to draw some interest in the offseason. It might seem like it in the moment, but he is not a terrible quarterback. He can play at a high level.
The downside to playing Winston? He is due $21 million next season, and that money becomes guaranteed if he suffers an injury. If the Bucs are concerned about that scenario, they might as well keep him on the bench.
And what an end would be. Winston would finish his Bucs career the same way he started it: by throwing a pick-six .
