Obli's "What I heard and what I think I heard"

[Obliviax]

General

• I went to college in WVA and can tell you that Mountaineer Football is their everything. This is their Super Bowl. They play Pitt away this year. Their home games include Kansas and K-State as the only other ranked teams visiting this season. This will be the loudest crowd we play in front of with the only exception being tOSU. We should have a lot of upper class leadership on the field so we should be able to handle the noise and excitement.
• PSU is more talented at almost every position. But mobile QBs, like Greene, can change the game.
• Turnovers, penalties and mistakes need to be avoided. If we bring our A game we win. If we bring our B game we will be at risk. If we bring our C game this is an upset waiting to happen.
• If it rains, that presents even more problems in terms of turnovers.

On Offense

• The entire focus has been WR since the OC was fired after UM. CJF has expressed guarded optimism. But often times, the thing you work on gets better while other factions suffer. I expect to see much improved WR play.
• WVUs glaring weakness is their defensive secondary which is almost entirely new as well as using a lot of xfers. You never know how a kid will play in a game as this is always different from practice. I expect PSU to attack the WVU secondary early and often. I am hoping for a big day from our WRs.
• I am told Warren will be a big part of the gameplan. CJF called him one of the top two best TEs in the nation and said that he can do it all. I expect to see a lot of him as the WVU LBers will be challenged. They do have a kid that looks to be a really good OLB in Josiah Trotter. He played at St. Joe's prep and is the son of NFL pro bowler Jeremiah Trotter. He hurt his leg and redshirted as a Frosh last year. He was a 4 star and is 6-2 and 230. WVU is really high on him and he'll start. However, their depth at linebacker is really thin. If anyone gets banged up, they are in trouble.
• I am hearing that we'll show a lot of 2X sets. In other words, two RBs. In some cases, a 2-2 which is two RBs and two TEs.
• I expect we'll see a lot of pre-snap movement with WVU under adjusting as they expect us to play our typical offense disguised to look different by pre-snap movement. But with several TE's, RBs and WRs to choose from, PSU could come out with some creativity. But I expect us to be conservative, early, in a hostile environment on a potentially wet night. We'll see if AK opens it up in the second half.
• I am not sure what to expect out of our Running Game. We replace a lot of OL and WVUs' front 4 has been good. I expect Allar to run more. I've heard he is much quicker and stronger this year. Moreover, the staff didn't want him running last year as they were not convinced the backup was ready. I understand they are much more comfortable at backup QB for both #2 and #3,
• Overall, we should be able to put points up and I hope to be well into the 30s or more.

Defense

• I am pretty comfortable but am concerned about two things: stopping the run and containing Greene.
• I am told that much of WVUs success last year was their Center who played great against us last year. With two really strong RBs. CJ Donaldson was having a good year and is a load at 6-2 and almost 240 lbs. He got banged up and didn't get the carries later in the season but still had a good year with just under 1000 years rushing and a 5 YPC average. He was also a second-team all-academic B12 player. he may be the one most affected by the loss of their AA center as he is not an outside runner. So that guy is Jahiem White. A PA kid who played at Wiliam Penn in York. He is 5-9 and 195 so he is Mr. Outside. He had just under 900 yards last year as a Frosh and 7.7 YPC. They are really good at RB, perhaps as good as we are.
• They also have a really good TE in 6-7, 255 lb Kole Taylor. he was a highly rated recruit that went to LSU and Xfers to WVU last year and played well against us. He's put on some weight as he was in the 230 range for last years game. He'll be good and we'll be challenged to contain him.
• They've got a stable of WRs that are good but not great. They seem confident but they are not highly recruited guys but come after you with depth. Hudson Clement really came on at the end of last season and looks like one of those "steve largent" or "julian edelman" type of players.
• While they lost a great C and really good LT they seem confident in their OL. They move a starter over to C. But they have a hole to fill at RT. I expect PSU to try and go after that hole by bringing a lot of heat from the Offensive right side in DDS and "Sticks" Abdul Carter. I would guess that we'll do a lot of spying with Rojas and the safeties to contain Greene.
• WVU is going to be, IMHO, a better offense than USC. The only O we'll see better is tOSU's. They are going to score points.

My prediction is PSU 41, WVU 31.

 

[Fayette_LION]

General

• I went to college in WVA and can tell you that Mountaineer Football is their everything. This is their Super Bowl. They play Pitt away this year. Their home games include Kansas and K-State as the only other ranked teams visiting this season. This will be the loudest crowd we play in front of with the only exception being tOSU. We should have a lot of upper class leadership on the field so we should be able to handle the noise and excitement.
• PSU is more talented at almost every position. But mobile QBs, like Greene, can change the game.
• Turnovers, penalties and mistakes need to be avoided. If we bring our A game we win. If we bring our B game we will be at risk. If we bring our C game this is an upset waiting to happen.
• If it rains, that presents even more problems in terms of turnovers.

On Offense

• The entire focus has been WR since the OC was fired after UM. CJF has expressed guarded optimism. But often times, the thing you work on gets better while other factions suffer. I expect to see much improved WR play.
• WVUs glaring weakness is their defensive secondary which is almost entirely new as well as using a lot of xfers. You never know how a kid will play in a game as this is always different from practice. I expect PSU to attack the WVU secondary early and often. I am hoping for a big day from our WRs.
• I am told Warren will be a big part of the gameplan. CJF called him one of the top two best TEs in the nation and said that he can do it all. I expect to see a lot of him as the WVU LBers will be challenged. They do have a kid that looks to be a really good OLB in Josiah Trotter. He played at St. Joe's prep and is the son of NFL pro bowler Jeremiah Trotter. He hurt his leg and redshirted as a Frosh last year. He was a 4 star and is 6-2 and 230. WVU is really high on him and he'll start. However, their depth at linebacker is really thin. If anyone gets banged up, they are in trouble.
• I am hearing that we'll show a lot of 2X sets. In other words, two RBs. In some cases, a 2-2 which is two RBs and two TEs.
• I expect we'll see a lot of pre-snap movement with WVU under adjusting as they expect us to play our typical offense disguised to look different by pre-snap movement. But with several TE's, RBs and WRs to choose from, PSU could come out with some creativity. But I expect us to be conservative, early, in a hostile environment on a potentially wet night. We'll see if AK opens it up in the second half.
• I am not sure what to expect out of our Running Game. We replace a lot of OL and WVUs' front 4 has been good. I expect Allar to run more. I've heard he is much quicker and stronger this year. Moreover, the staff didn't want him running last year as they were not convinced the backup was ready. I understand they are much more comfortable at backup QB for both #2 and #3,
• Overall, we should be able to put points up and I hope to be well into the 30s or more.

Defense

• I am pretty comfortable but am concerned about two things: stopping the run and containing Greene.
• I am told that much of WVUs success last year was their Center who played great against us last year. With two really strong RBs. CJ Donaldson was having a good year and is a load at 6-2 and almost 240 lbs. He got banged up and didn't get the carries later in the season but still had a good year with just under 1000 years rushing and a 5 YPC average. He was also a second-team all-academic B12 player. he may be the one most affected by the loss of their AA center as he is not an outside runner. So that guy is Jahiem White. A PA kid who played at Wiliam Penn in York. He is 5-9 and 195 so he is Mr. Outside. He had just under 900 yards last year as a Frosh and 7.7 YPC. They are really good at RB, perhaps as good as we are.
• They also have a really good TE in 6-7, 255 lb Kole Taylor. he was a highly rated recruit that went to LSU and Xfers to WVU last year and played well against us. He's put on some weight as he was in the 230 range for last years game. He'll be good and we'll be challenged to contain him.
• They've got a stable of WRs that are good but not great. They seem confident but they are not highly recruited guys but come after you with depth. Hudson Clement really came on at the end of last season and looks like one of those "steve largent" or "julian edelman" type of players.
• While they lost a great C and really good LT they seem confident in their OL. They move a starter over to C. But they have a hole to fill at RT. I expect PSU to try and go after that hole by bringing a lot of heat from the Offensive right side in DDS and "Sticks" Abdul Carter. I would guess that we'll do a lot of spying with Rojas and the safeties to contain Greene.
• WVU is going to be, IMHO, a better offense than USC. The only O we'll see better is tOSU's. They are going to score points.

My prediction is PSU 41, WVU 31.

I would not be surprised to see WVU go Illinois style with multiple O Linemen and power sets that put real pressure on our D line and LBers. They'll run that big back as long as we can't stop the ground and pound. IMO Greene has some of that McSorely A game in him. We will need to be disciplined.

 

[The Spin Meister]

If we go 2 backs 2 TEs that doesn’t leave much for the wide outs. Hard to challenge their dbacks in that scheme. And our TEs don’t seem to be the speedy hybrid types go do so. Singleton has the speed but we will need more than that to pressure their D.

Going to have to do a lot of situational substitutions. Play the matchup game. Test different packages.

Going to be a major chess game. Which puts this on Coach K and Allar.

 

[jferretti]

General

• I went to college in WVA and can tell you that Mountaineer Football is their everything. This is their Super Bowl. They play Pitt away this year. Their home games include Kansas and K-State as the only other ranked teams visiting this season. This will be the loudest crowd we play in front of with the only exception being tOSU. We should have a lot of upper class leadership on the field so we should be able to handle the noise and excitement.
• PSU is more talented at almost every position. But mobile QBs, like Greene, can change the game.
• Turnovers, penalties and mistakes need to be avoided. If we bring our A game we win. If we bring our B game we will be at risk. If we bring our C game this is an upset waiting to happen.
• If it rains, that presents even more problems in terms of turnovers.

On Offense

• The entire focus has been WR since the OC was fired after UM. CJF has expressed guarded optimism. But often times, the thing you work on gets better while other factions suffer. I expect to see much improved WR play.
• WVUs glaring weakness is their defensive secondary which is almost entirely new as well as using a lot of xfers. You never know how a kid will play in a game as this is always different from practice. I expect PSU to attack the WVU secondary early and often. I am hoping for a big day from our WRs.
• I am told Warren will be a big part of the gameplan. CJF called him one of the top two best TEs in the nation and said that he can do it all. I expect to see a lot of him as the WVU LBers will be challenged. They do have a kid that looks to be a really good OLB in Josiah Trotter. He played at St. Joe's prep and is the son of NFL pro bowler Jeremiah Trotter. He hurt his leg and redshirted as a Frosh last year. He was a 4 star and is 6-2 and 230. WVU is really high on him and he'll start. However, their depth at linebacker is really thin. If anyone gets banged up, they are in trouble.
• I am hearing that we'll show a lot of 2X sets. In other words, two RBs. In some cases, a 2-2 which is two RBs and two TEs.
• I expect we'll see a lot of pre-snap movement with WVU under adjusting as they expect us to play our typical offense disguised to look different by pre-snap movement. But with several TE's, RBs and WRs to choose from, PSU could come out with some creativity. But I expect us to be conservative, early, in a hostile environment on a potentially wet night. We'll see if AK opens it up in the second half.
• I am not sure what to expect out of our Running Game. We replace a lot of OL and WVUs' front 4 has been good. I expect Allar to run more. I've heard he is much quicker and stronger this year. Moreover, the staff didn't want him running last year as they were not convinced the backup was ready. I understand they are much more comfortable at backup QB for both #2 and #3,
• Overall, we should be able to put points up and I hope to be well into the 30s or more.

Defense

• I am pretty comfortable but am concerned about two things: stopping the run and containing Greene.
• I am told that much of WVUs success last year was their Center who played great against us last year. With two really strong RBs. CJ Donaldson was having a good year and is a load at 6-2 and almost 240 lbs. He got banged up and didn't get the carries later in the season but still had a good year with just under 1000 years rushing and a 5 YPC average. He was also a second-team all-academic B12 player. he may be the one most affected by the loss of their AA center as he is not an outside runner. So that guy is Jahiem White. A PA kid who played at Wiliam Penn in York. He is 5-9 and 195 so he is Mr. Outside. He had just under 900 yards last year as a Frosh and 7.7 YPC. They are really good at RB, perhaps as good as we are.
• They also have a really good TE in 6-7, 255 lb Kole Taylor. he was a highly rated recruit that went to LSU and Xfers to WVU last year and played well against us. He's put on some weight as he was in the 230 range for last years game. He'll be good and we'll be challenged to contain him.
• They've got a stable of WRs that are good but not great. They seem confident but they are not highly recruited guys but come after you with depth. Hudson Clement really came on at the end of last season and looks like one of those "steve largent" or "julian edelman" type of players.
• While they lost a great C and really good LT they seem confident in their OL. They move a starter over to C. But they have a hole to fill at RT. I expect PSU to try and go after that hole by bringing a lot of heat from the Offensive right side in DDS and "Sticks" Abdul Carter. I would guess that we'll do a lot of spying with Rojas and the safeties to contain Greene.
• WVU is going to be, IMHO, a better offense than USC. The only O we'll see better is tOSU's. They are going to score points.

My prediction is PSU 41, WVU 31.

Good analysis but your final score is too high. Neither team has WR's that scare the opposition. Expect a lower scoring game, especially in the rain.

 

[Hugh Laurie]

General

• I went to college in WVA and can tell you that Mountaineer Football is their everything. This is their Super Bowl. They play Pitt away this year. Their home games include Kansas and K-State as the only other ranked teams visiting this season. This will be the loudest crowd we play in front of with the only exception being tOSU. We should have a lot of upper class leadership on the field so we should be able to handle the noise and excitement.
• PSU is more talented at almost every position. But mobile QBs, like Greene, can change the game.
• Turnovers, penalties and mistakes need to be avoided. If we bring our A game we win. If we bring our B game we will be at risk. If we bring our C game this is an upset waiting to happen.
• If it rains, that presents even more problems in terms of turnovers.

On Offense

• The entire focus has been WR since the OC was fired after UM. CJF has expressed guarded optimism. But often times, the thing you work on gets better while other factions suffer. I expect to see much improved WR play.
• WVUs glaring weakness is their defensive secondary which is almost entirely new as well as using a lot of xfers. You never know how a kid will play in a game as this is always different from practice. I expect PSU to attack the WVU secondary early and often. I am hoping for a big day from our WRs.
• I am told Warren will be a big part of the gameplan. CJF called him one of the top two best TEs in the nation and said that he can do it all. I expect to see a lot of him as the WVU LBers will be challenged. They do have a kid that looks to be a really good OLB in Josiah Trotter. He played at St. Joe's prep and is the son of NFL pro bowler Jeremiah Trotter. He hurt his leg and redshirted as a Frosh last year. He was a 4 star and is 6-2 and 230. WVU is really high on him and he'll start. However, their depth at linebacker is really thin. If anyone gets banged up, they are in trouble.
• I am hearing that we'll show a lot of 2X sets. In other words, two RBs. In some cases, a 2-2 which is two RBs and two TEs.
• I expect we'll see a lot of pre-snap movement with WVU under adjusting as they expect us to play our typical offense disguised to look different by pre-snap movement. But with several TE's, RBs and WRs to choose from, PSU could come out with some creativity. But I expect us to be conservative, early, in a hostile environment on a potentially wet night. We'll see if AK opens it up in the second half.
• I am not sure what to expect out of our Running Game. We replace a lot of OL and WVUs' front 4 has been good. I expect Allar to run more. I've heard he is much quicker and stronger this year. Moreover, the staff didn't want him running last year as they were not convinced the backup was ready. I understand they are much more comfortable at backup QB for both #2 and #3,
• Overall, we should be able to put points up and I hope to be well into the 30s or more.

Defense

• I am pretty comfortable but am concerned about two things: stopping the run and containing Greene.
• I am told that much of WVUs success last year was their Center who played great against us last year. With two really strong RBs. CJ Donaldson was having a good year and is a load at 6-2 and almost 240 lbs. He got banged up and didn't get the carries later in the season but still had a good year with just under 1000 years rushing and a 5 YPC average. He was also a second-team all-academic B12 player. he may be the one most affected by the loss of their AA center as he is not an outside runner. So that guy is Jahiem White. A PA kid who played at Wiliam Penn in York. He is 5-9 and 195 so he is Mr. Outside. He had just under 900 yards last year as a Frosh and 7.7 YPC. They are really good at RB, perhaps as good as we are.
• They also have a really good TE in 6-7, 255 lb Kole Taylor. he was a highly rated recruit that went to LSU and Xfers to WVU last year and played well against us. He's put on some weight as he was in the 230 range for last years game. He'll be good and we'll be challenged to contain him.
• They've got a stable of WRs that are good but not great. They seem confident but they are not highly recruited guys but come after you with depth. Hudson Clement really came on at the end of last season and looks like one of those "steve largent" or "julian edelman" type of players.
• While they lost a great C and really good LT they seem confident in their OL. They move a starter over to C. But they have a hole to fill at RT. I expect PSU to try and go after that hole by bringing a lot of heat from the Offensive right side in DDS and "Sticks" Abdul Carter. I would guess that we'll do a lot of spying with Rojas and the safeties to contain Greene.
• WVU is going to be, IMHO, a better offense than USC. The only O we'll see better is tOSU's. They are going to score points.

My prediction is PSU 41, WVU 31.

Good write up but if our D gives up 31 then we need to rehire Manny.

 

[Lion_Backer]

I would not be surprised to see WVU go Illinois style with multiple O Linemen and power sets that put real pressure on our D line and LBers. They'll run that big back as long as we can't stop the ground and pound. IMO Greene has some of that McSorely A game in him. We will need to be disciplined.

Getting off the field on 3rd downs - particularly 3rd and med./long - will be critical in negating their power running game.

It will be very difficult to wear down our very quick and talented 'D' if they are unable to put together sustained drives.

They are a quality opponent that will provide an early season test to help gauge where we are at as a team.

With the new playoff format, and having 3 new coordinators, my wish for this game and the early part of our schedule is Win, avoid injuries, and show continued improvement from week to week.

More of an NFL mentality and approach. Qualify for the playoffs and then see what we can do from there.

 

[The Spin Meister]

Getting off the field on 3rd downs - particularly 3rd and med./long - will be critical in negating their power running game.

It will be very difficult to wear down our very quick and talented 'D' if they are unable to put together sustained drives.

They are a quality opponent that will provide an early season test to help gauge where we are at as a team.

With the new playoff format, and having 3 new coordinators, my wish for this game and the early part of our schedule is Win, avoid injuries, and show continued improvement from week to week.

More of an NFL mentality and approach. Qualify for the playoffs and then see what we can do from there.

Exactly. Don’t care how we win…. just win baby. Even if it is an ugly win it will be long forgotten by December other than it being a win.

 

[PSUSignore]

I sure hope it's not a 41-31 track meet. I figured with this being game 1 under Kotelnicki the offense will start slower, and we are going to need the defense to do when PSU defenses have done for decades. If we give up 31 I'm concerned that we aren't going to win. I was thinking (hoping?) for a lower scoring game like 24-14 or something, with a slow start in the first half and PSU taking control in the 2nd. The offense will be better later in the season but I'm not expecting too much of Kotelnicki's influence to appear in week 1 as he surely will have to phase things in over time.

 

[The Spin Meister]

I sure hope it's not a 41-31 track meet. I figured with this being game 1 under Kotelnicki the offense will start slower, and we are going to need the defense to do when PSU defenses have done for decades. If we give up 31 I'm concerned that we aren't going to win. I was thinking (hoping?) for a lower scoring game like 24-14 or something, with a slow start in the first half and PSU taking control in the 2nd. The offense will be better later in the season but I'm not expecting too much of Kotelnicki's influence to appear in week 1 as he surely will have to phase things in over time.

Plus ‘eers will run the ball a lot. Even the QB will run. We will likely run a lot too since we have two great backs and three new O line men. As long as they stay inbounds it will burn a lot if clock time.

Just to be different…. 27-13.

 

[bcspsu]

I sure hope it's not a 41-31 track meet. I figured with this being game 1 under Kotelnicki the offense will start slower, and we are going to need the defense to do when PSU defenses have done for decades. If we give up 31 I'm concerned that we aren't going to win. I was thinking (hoping?) for a lower scoring game like 24-14 or something, with a slow start in the first half and PSU taking control in the 2nd. The offense will be better later in the season but I'm not expecting too much of Kotelnicki's influence to appear in week 1 as he surely will have to phase things in over time.

If we give up 31 against WVU, think how many points we'll give up against USC and OSU. In its watered down state in the Peach Bowl, PSU gave up 38 points to an offense that had a much more refined passing attack than WVU, so I would hope that it surrenders points much more grudgingly against a plodding offense.

 

[LandoComando]

If we give up 31 against WVU, think how many points we'll give up against USC and OSU. In its watered down state in the Peach Bowl, PSU gave up 38 points to an offense that had a much more refined passing attack than WVU, so I would hope that it surrenders points much more grudgingly against a plodding offense.

He's just buying into the nonsense around Greene.

31-13. Similar to last year.

 

[bdgan]

General

• I went to college in WVA and can tell you that Mountaineer Football is their everything. This is their Super Bowl. They play Pitt away this year. Their home games include Kansas and K-State as the only other ranked teams visiting this season. This will be the loudest crowd we play in front of with the only exception being tOSU. We should have a lot of upper class leadership on the field so we should be able to handle the noise and excitement.
• PSU is more talented at almost every position. But mobile QBs, like Greene, can change the game.
• Turnovers, penalties and mistakes need to be avoided. If we bring our A game we win. If we bring our B game we will be at risk. If we bring our C game this is an upset waiting to happen.
• If it rains, that presents even more problems in terms of turnovers.

On Offense

• The entire focus has been WR since the OC was fired after UM. CJF has expressed guarded optimism. But often times, the thing you work on gets better while other factions suffer. I expect to see much improved WR play.
• WVUs glaring weakness is their defensive secondary which is almost entirely new as well as using a lot of xfers. You never know how a kid will play in a game as this is always different from practice. I expect PSU to attack the WVU secondary early and often. I am hoping for a big day from our WRs.
• I am told Warren will be a big part of the gameplan. CJF called him one of the top two best TEs in the nation and said that he can do it all. I expect to see a lot of him as the WVU LBers will be challenged. They do have a kid that looks to be a really good OLB in Josiah Trotter. He played at St. Joe's prep and is the son of NFL pro bowler Jeremiah Trotter. He hurt his leg and redshirted as a Frosh last year. He was a 4 star and is 6-2 and 230. WVU is really high on him and he'll start. However, their depth at linebacker is really thin. If anyone gets banged up, they are in trouble.
• I am hearing that we'll show a lot of 2X sets. In other words, two RBs. In some cases, a 2-2 which is two RBs and two TEs.
• I expect we'll see a lot of pre-snap movement with WVU under adjusting as they expect us to play our typical offense disguised to look different by pre-snap movement. But with several TE's, RBs and WRs to choose from, PSU could come out with some creativity. But I expect us to be conservative, early, in a hostile environment on a potentially wet night. We'll see if AK opens it up in the second half.
• I am not sure what to expect out of our Running Game. We replace a lot of OL and WVUs' front 4 has been good. I expect Allar to run more. I've heard he is much quicker and stronger this year. Moreover, the staff didn't want him running last year as they were not convinced the backup was ready. I understand they are much more comfortable at backup QB for both #2 and #3,
• Overall, we should be able to put points up and I hope to be well into the 30s or more.

Defense

• I am pretty comfortable but am concerned about two things: stopping the run and containing Greene.
• I am told that much of WVUs success last year was their Center who played great against us last year. With two really strong RBs. CJ Donaldson was having a good year and is a load at 6-2 and almost 240 lbs. He got banged up and didn't get the carries later in the season but still had a good year with just under 1000 years rushing and a 5 YPC average. He was also a second-team all-academic B12 player. he may be the one most affected by the loss of their AA center as he is not an outside runner. So that guy is Jahiem White. A PA kid who played at Wiliam Penn in York. He is 5-9 and 195 so he is Mr. Outside. He had just under 900 yards last year as a Frosh and 7.7 YPC. They are really good at RB, perhaps as good as we are.
• They also have a really good TE in 6-7, 255 lb Kole Taylor. he was a highly rated recruit that went to LSU and Xfers to WVU last year and played well against us. He's put on some weight as he was in the 230 range for last years game. He'll be good and we'll be challenged to contain him.
• They've got a stable of WRs that are good but not great. They seem confident but they are not highly recruited guys but come after you with depth. Hudson Clement really came on at the end of last season and looks like one of those "steve largent" or "julian edelman" type of players.
• While they lost a great C and really good LT they seem confident in their OL. They move a starter over to C. But they have a hole to fill at RT. I expect PSU to try and go after that hole by bringing a lot of heat from the Offensive right side in DDS and "Sticks" Abdul Carter. I would guess that we'll do a lot of spying with Rojas and the safeties to contain Greene.
• WVU is going to be, IMHO, a better offense than USC. The only O we'll see better is tOSU's. They are going to score points.

My prediction is PSU 41, WVU 31.

Nice analysis. I'll add my thoughts:

Defense:

My biggest concern is being able to stop the running game. I feel good about our DTs but not as good about our DEs. Sutton and Carter are tremendous talents but I worry that their primary objective will be to get to Green instead of sealing the edge. Greene is very dangerous if he can break containment. With all the pressure we applied last year we never forced a TO. A lot of times I wish we would contain him instead of going for a sack/strip all the time.

My other concern is at LB. Last year I recall Greene scrambling and our LBs followed only to see Green cut back and make big yards because the LB had left his gap.


Offense:

PSU struggled to run the ball vs WVa last year. Why would we expect to do better with the same RBs and 3 new OL? The only reason I can think of is that better scheme will keep WVa defenders off balance. We'll see what happens. Allar probably had his best game vs WVa last year. He struggled a bit after that so I'm not counting on a similar performance. I hope I'm wrong but it will be difficult for him to repeat 72% completion, 325 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT. I think we need either 200 yds rushing or a TO to win this one.

I think we'll need 28 pts to win this game.

 

[Fac]

Nice Obi, I always liked your football post game posts as well.

Regarding your general point #3. You're assuming WVU brings their A game which is a possibility but unlikely.
Looking forward to reading future posts.

 

[tjp013]

I would not be surprised to see WVU go Illinois style with multiple O Linemen and power sets that put real pressure on our D line and LBers. They'll run that big back as long as we can't stop the ground and pound. IMO Greene has some of that McSorely A game in him. We will need to be disciplined.

Remember when Illinois did that we had just lost PJ for the season during the prior game and Beaman and Issac were out the entire year. Our D line was young and lacked depth, this D line is old(2 6 yr guys one the 5 th year player and a 3rd yr. guy on Durant who could be an A-A) Let them try that package-we'll stuff them!

 

[lazydave841]

PSU struggled to run the ball vs WVa last year. Why would we expect to do better with the same RBs and 3 new OL?

Disagree.

Singleton had 13/70.
Allen had 10/51.

5.4 and 5.1 ypc. We struggled to break off long runs perhaps, but nobody should be upset with that type of rushing.

 

[lazydave841]

Remember when Illinois did that we had just lost PJ for the season during the prior game and Beaman and Issac were out the entire year. Our D line was young and lacked depth

Pry failed to change his defensive front until they got in the red zone. It was insane to defend a 7 man OL / 2 TE formation with a 4-3 base front.

 

[LandoComando]

Disagree.

Singleton had 13/70.
Allen had 10/51.

5.4 and 5.1 ypc. We struggled to break off long runs perhaps, but nobody should be upset with that type of rushing.

Thank you--I never understood the "we struggled to run the ball" narrative.

 

[lazydave841]

Thank you--I never understood the "we struggled to run the ball" narrative.

I'm not sure that I follow it either, particularly for this game. Perhaps enough WVU media has stated "we stopped their rushing attack" and people remember our rushing game vs Illinois, Michigan, and OSU and it all just runs together.

WVU didn't stop anything last year. Our place kicker choice cost us 6 pts before a switch was made. Other than that, we efficiently ran the ball and Allar had his best passing game of the season.

 

[LandoComando]

I'm not sure that I follow it either, particularly for this game. Perhaps enough WVU media has stated "we stopped their rushing attack" and people remember our rushing game vs Illinois, Michigan, and OSU and it all just runs together.

WVU didn't stop anything last year. Our place kicker choice cost us 6 pts before a switch was made. Other than that, we efficiently ran the ball and Allar had his best passing game of the season.

I honestly think a lot of this is simply because of McAfee--he does a great job creating hype and it's truly altered what actually happened last year. WVU lost, by far, their best player.

 

[lazydave841]

I honestly think a lot of this is simply because of McAfee--he does a great job creating hype and it's truly altered what actually happened last year. WVU lost, by far, their best player.

Bingo. WVU loses 2 players off their line: "they'll be tough to stop running"

We lose 3: "we will never effectively run the ball again"

They have 1 OL we'd kill to have and we have 8 that would probably start in any of the other 4 spots.

Their starting NT would be, at best, 6th in the rotation if he didn't transfer out. We are as deep at DT as we have ever been under JF. Those guys were not the problem last year and they all came back.

Their secondary: "they brought in a bunch of transfers to go along with their 1 returning safety; they shored things up." A Northwestern CB and some small school guys. No draft prospects, no high star recruits. Just different body's.

Our secondary: "they brought in transfers to go along with their 3 returning safeties; it will be a tough adjustment". We brought in a guy with SEC starting experience and a former 5*/high 4* guy.

How do we not win that conversation?

 

[LandoComando]

Bingo. WVU loses 2 players off their line: "they'll be tough to stop running"

We lose 3: "we will never effectively run the ball again"

They have 1 OL we'd kill to have and we have 8 that would probably start in any of the other 4 spots.

Their starting NT would be, at best, 6th in the rotation if he didn't transfer out. We are as deep at DT as we have ever been under JF. Those guys were not the problem last year and they all came back.

Their secondary: "they brought in a bunch of transfers to go along with their 1 returning safety; they shored things up." A Northwestern CB and some small school guys. No draft prospects, no high star recruits. Just different body's.

Our secondary: "they brought in transfers to go along with their 3 returning safeties; it will be a tough adjustment". We brought in a guy with SEC starting experience and a former 5*/high 4* guy.

How do we not win that conversation?

Right? It's beyond ridiculous. It's always weird how when anyone we play adds anyone in the portal they got someone amazing and everyone we add was just because we were desperate because X flopped.

Looking at the two teams objectively--where's the argument?

 

[bdroc]

Disagree.

Singleton had 13/70.
Allen had 10/51.

5.4 and 5.1 ypc. We struggled to break off long runs perhaps, but nobody should be upset with that type of rushing.

IIRC we had 146 yds rushing and 332 yds passing last year. I don't expect a repeat of that passing performance. If that's true we'll need more from the running game if we hope to score 30+ points.

FWIW we averaged 185 yds rushing last year.

 

[LandoComando]

IIRC we had 146 yds rushing and 332 yds passing last year. I don't expect a repeat of that passing performance. If that's true we'll need more from the running game if we hope to score 30+ points.

FWIW we averaged 185 yds rushing last year.

Why are you worried about our pass game? You realize WVU's pass defense was awful and even our mediocre WRs should be able to win battles. And that's not even including the fact our new scheme can't be worse.

 

[bdroc]

Bingo. WVU loses 2 players off their line: "they'll be tough to stop running"

Our secondary: "they brought in transfers to go along with their 3 returning safeties; it will be a tough adjustment". We brought in a guy with SEC starting experience and a former 5*/high 4* guy.

How do we not win that conversation?

Harris is highly rated but hasn't played much. I hope he plays like a seasoned 5* but that's to be seen.

Saunders was rated 95 which is high 4*. How can we have a problem at WR?

My point is that saying Harris will be dominant doesn't make it so. Time will tell.

 

[lazydave841]

IIRC we had 146 yds rushing and 332 yds passing last year. I don't expect a repeat of that passing performance. If that's true we'll need more from the running game if we hope to score 30+ points.

FWIW we averaged 185 yds rushing last year.

478 yards off offense is a fine day.

Why don't you expect a repeat? Just curious. If WVU can limit the passing game, sure, we will need more rushing yards. Or turnovers. Or special teams scores / setups. I'm not arguing the IF. I'm arguing the WHY.

Averaging 185 rushing, what did we average passing? Without looking, I assume 250 ish? Our offense struggled with top 5 teams. They had bad quarters, sometimes a bad half vs everyone else, but that's it.

WVU- do you think they are a top 5 team? I don't.

 

[lazydave841]

Harris is highly rated but hasn't played much. I hope he plays like a seasoned 5* but that's to be seen.

Saunders was rated 95 which is high 4*. How can we have a problem at WR?

My point is that saying Harris will be dominant doesn't make it so. Time will tell.

Excellent take.

Apply it to the WVU secondary. They were terrible last year. Replacements aren't considered high end. Why are we going to struggle yet our guys have to prove it.

 

[ryoder1]

I was thinking about this more and think one of the narratives on this board that can be debunked for the most part is that because we have new coordinators that hurts us or helps WVU in some way. Why?

Both guys have great experience. Kotelnicki torched WVU for 55 points just last year in Morgantown. He has had 9 months to work with the PSU personnel. Allar is a returning veteran, smart so has had time to grasp the changes to the offense that have been made. No excuse for lousy play because we have a new coordinator. This change seems to be a positive for us.

On defense we are not changing much and whatever we have changed like going to a 4-2-5 for certain situations or for our base D should not be some negative. Allen is a very good coach.

I don't see us missing a beat because of new coordinators in fact this is a net positive for us with Kotelnicki and Allen is equal to Diaz.

 

[bdroc]

478 yards off offense is a fine day.

Why don't you expect a repeat? Just curious. If WVU can limit the passing game, sure, we will need more rushing yards. Or turnovers. Or special teams scores / setups. I'm not arguing the IF. I'm arguing the WHY.

Averaging 185 rushing, what did we average passing? Without looking, I assume 250 ish? Our offense struggled with top 5 teams. They had bad quarters, sometimes a bad half vs everyone else, but that's it.

WVU- do you think they are a top 5 team? I don't.

Of course I don’t think WVa is a top 5 team. That's just silly.

I completely agree that 478 yds of offense is great. I'm just not confident that Allar is going to have another career day, especially on the road with a new OC. I think we need to be a little more balanced in this year's game.

Of course I could be wrong. Maybe Allar passes for 375 yds this year and Flemming/Clifford look like studs. It's just not my prediction. JMO

 

[lazydave841]

I was thinking about this more and think one of the narratives on this board that can be debunked for the most part is that because we have new coordinators that hurts us or helps WVU in some way. Why?

Both guys have great experience. Kotelnicki torched WVU for 55 points just last year in Morgantown. He has had 9 months to work with the PSU personnel. Allar is a returning veteran, smart so has had time to grasp the changes to the offense that have been made. No excuse for loudy play becausexwe have a new coordinator.
This change seems to be a positive for us.

On defense we are not changing much and whatever we have changed like going to a 4-2-5 for certain situations or for our base D should not be some negative. Allen is a very good coach.

I don't see us missing a beat because of new coordinators in fact this is a net positive for us with Kotelnicki and Allen is equal to Diaz.

Some of the concerns are legitimate. New coordinators can take time to jive. It's all good conversation. The problem I have is when the opponent is clearly in a different tier (no matter what metric you use, we are top 10: fpi, recruiting rankings over entire span of the roster, polls vs WVU clearly outside the top 25 or lower in the same metrics) and they get the favored opinion simply because.

If we played their '23 schedule, we finish 11-1 or 12-0. All depends on how we would have done vs OU. All of our warts would have been hidden until the playoff and who knows how that would have went.

 

[lazydave841]

I'm just not confident that Allar is going to have another career day, especially on the road with a new OC. I think we need to be a little more balanced in this year's game.

Agree completely, but you didn't convey this in the prior post. Allar, new OC, hostile road environment.

 

[knickslions]

Wow 41-31 seems way off. WV offense isn’t going to put 31 up against PSU. 34-13 Penn State. Penn State is better at every position and has more depth

 

[ryoder1]

Some of the concerns are legitimate. New coordinators can take time to jive. It's all good conversation. The problem I have is when the opponent is clearly in a different tier (no matter what metric you use, we are top 10: fpi, recruiting rankings over entire span of the roster, polls vs WVU clearly outside the top 25 or lower in the same metrics) and they get the favored opinion simply because.

If we played their '23 schedule, we finish 11-1 or 12-0. All depends on how we would have done vs OU. All of our warts would have been hidden until the playoff and who knows how that would have went.

I guess they need time in game situations but they have been on staff 9 months and are vet coordinators along with our first teamers having a lot of experience. I don't see this as a negative.

All the concern stems from us not improving versus '23 (Allar doesn't improve nor the WRs and O-Line just so so)and WVU dramatically improved (powerful run game still there, Greene is excellent, O-Line still very good). Then the game will be close

 

[junior1]

Why are you worried about our pass game? You realize WVU's pass defense was awful and even our mediocre WRs should be able to win battles. And that's not even including the fact our new scheme can't be worse.

saw a betting analysis on YouTube this PM...according to statistics (last year's) wvu is a running team..they are pretty bad in the passing game against man to man defenses - which we run a lot more than a lot of programs. If we can stop the run, we'll win

 

[The Spin Meister]

I guess they need time in game situations but they have been on staff 9 months and are vet coordinators along with our first teamers having a lot of experience. I don't see this as a negative.

All the concern stems from us not improving versus '23 (Allar doesn't improve nor the WRs and O-Line just so so)and WVU dramatically improved (powerful run game still there, Greene is excellent, O-Line still very good). Then the game will be close

This is a game that is hard to predict. We should win by 10-14 in one of those games that is never really in doubt.

But football is a crazy, highly emotional game. Especially a home opener at WVU with a crazy crowd. If we jump out early, quiet the crowd, force them to pass more….we win by 20 or more.

However…..,we have an early turnover, or our D has a breakdown and gives up a score, and they are ahead of tied at halftime……we are in for a battle.

Gonna be fun either way. Love the WVU fan base, they really make it fun. If this was an afternoon or night game I would most definitely be there. Great place to see a game.

 

[bdroc]

Some of the concerns are legitimate. New coordinators can take time to jive. It's all good conversation. The problem I have is when the opponent is clearly in a different tier (no matter what metric you use, we are top 10: fpi, recruiting rankings over entire span of the roster, polls vs WVU clearly outside the top 25 or lower in the same metrics) and they get the favored opinion simply because.

If we played their '23 schedule, we finish 11-1 or 12-0. All depends on how we would have done vs OU. All of our warts would have been hidden until the playoff and who knows how that would have went.

PSU obviously has better players. But strange things can happen with a road game, first game with new coordinators, bad weather, etc.

 

[MacNit2.0]

General

• I went to college in WVA and can tell you that Mountaineer Football is their everything. This is their Super Bowl. They play Pitt away this year. Their home games include Kansas and K-State as the only other ranked teams visiting this season. This will be the loudest crowd we play in front of with the only exception being tOSU. We should have a lot of upper class leadership on the field so we should be able to handle the noise and excitement.
• PSU is more talented at almost every position. But mobile QBs, like Greene, can change the game.
• Turnovers, penalties and mistakes need to be avoided. If we bring our A game we win. If we bring our B game we will be at risk. If we bring our C game this is an upset waiting to happen.
• If it rains, that presents even more problems in terms of turnovers.

On Offense

• The entire focus has been WR since the OC was fired after UM. CJF has expressed guarded optimism. But often times, the thing you work on gets better while other factions suffer. I expect to see much improved WR play.
• WVUs glaring weakness is their defensive secondary which is almost entirely new as well as using a lot of xfers. You never know how a kid will play in a game as this is always different from practice. I expect PSU to attack the WVU secondary early and often. I am hoping for a big day from our WRs.
• I am told Warren will be a big part of the gameplan. CJF called him one of the top two best TEs in the nation and said that he can do it all. I expect to see a lot of him as the WVU LBers will be challenged. They do have a kid that looks to be a really good OLB in Josiah Trotter. He played at St. Joe's prep and is the son of NFL pro bowler Jeremiah Trotter. He hurt his leg and redshirted as a Frosh last year. He was a 4 star and is 6-2 and 230. WVU is really high on him and he'll start. However, their depth at linebacker is really thin. If anyone gets banged up, they are in trouble.
• I am hearing that we'll show a lot of 2X sets. In other words, two RBs. In some cases, a 2-2 which is two RBs and two TEs.
• I expect we'll see a lot of pre-snap movement with WVU under adjusting as they expect us to play our typical offense disguised to look different by pre-snap movement. But with several TE's, RBs and WRs to choose from, PSU could come out with some creativity. But I expect us to be conservative, early, in a hostile environment on a potentially wet night. We'll see if AK opens it up in the second half.
• I am not sure what to expect out of our Running Game. We replace a lot of OL and WVUs' front 4 has been good. I expect Allar to run more. I've heard he is much quicker and stronger this year. Moreover, the staff didn't want him running last year as they were not convinced the backup was ready. I understand they are much more comfortable at backup QB for both #2 and #3,
• Overall, we should be able to put points up and I hope to be well into the 30s or more.

Defense

• I am pretty comfortable but am concerned about two things: stopping the run and containing Greene.
• I am told that much of WVUs success last year was their Center who played great against us last year. With two really strong RBs. CJ Donaldson was having a good year and is a load at 6-2 and almost 240 lbs. He got banged up and didn't get the carries later in the season but still had a good year with just under 1000 years rushing and a 5 YPC average. He was also a second-team all-academic B12 player. he may be the one most affected by the loss of their AA center as he is not an outside runner. So that guy is Jahiem White. A PA kid who played at Wiliam Penn in York. He is 5-9 and 195 so he is Mr. Outside. He had just under 900 yards last year as a Frosh and 7.7 YPC. They are really good at RB, perhaps as good as we are.
• They also have a really good TE in 6-7, 255 lb Kole Taylor. he was a highly rated recruit that went to LSU and Xfers to WVU last year and played well against us. He's put on some weight as he was in the 230 range for last years game. He'll be good and we'll be challenged to contain him.
• They've got a stable of WRs that are good but not great. They seem confident but they are not highly recruited guys but come after you with depth. Hudson Clement really came on at the end of last season and looks like one of those "steve largent" or "julian edelman" type of players.
• While they lost a great C and really good LT they seem confident in their OL. They move a starter over to C. But they have a hole to fill at RT. I expect PSU to try and go after that hole by bringing a lot of heat from the Offensive right side in DDS and "Sticks" Abdul Carter. I would guess that we'll do a lot of spying with Rojas and the safeties to contain Greene.
• WVU is going to be, IMHO, a better offense than USC. The only O we'll see better is tOSU's. They are going to score points.

My prediction is PSU 41, WVU 31.

What PSU WR do you see being capable of making a big play? In the rain?

 

[lazydave841]

What PSU WR do you see being capable of making a big play? In the rain?

Tre. Fleming. Evans. Clifford.

Same.

 

[Obliviax]

What PSU WR do you see being capable of making a big play? In the rain?

All of them

 

[LandoComando]

All of them

This--why don't people think our WRs can get behind their secondary?
It's not even about our guys being great--this is simply a good matchup on paper even our weakest position.

 

[ncgolfer]

General

• I went to college in WVA and can tell you that Mountaineer Football is their everything. This is their Super Bowl. They play Pitt away this year. Their home games include Kansas and K-State as the only other ranked teams visiting this season. This will be the loudest crowd we play in front of with the only exception being tOSU. We should have a lot of upper class leadership on the field so we should be able to handle the noise and excitement.
• PSU is more talented at almost every position. But mobile QBs, like Greene, can change the game.
• Turnovers, penalties and mistakes need to be avoided. If we bring our A game we win. If we bring our B game we will be at risk. If we bring our C game this is an upset waiting to happen.
• If it rains, that presents even more problems in terms of turnovers.

On Offense

• The entire focus has been WR since the OC was fired after UM. CJF has expressed guarded optimism. But often times, the thing you work on gets better while other factions suffer. I expect to see much improved WR play.
• WVUs glaring weakness is their defensive secondary which is almost entirely new as well as using a lot of xfers. You never know how a kid will play in a game as this is always different from practice. I expect PSU to attack the WVU secondary early and often. I am hoping for a big day from our WRs.
• I am told Warren will be a big part of the gameplan. CJF called him one of the top two best TEs in the nation and said that he can do it all. I expect to see a lot of him as the WVU LBers will be challenged. They do have a kid that looks to be a really good OLB in Josiah Trotter. He played at St. Joe's prep and is the son of NFL pro bowler Jeremiah Trotter. He hurt his leg and redshirted as a Frosh last year. He was a 4 star and is 6-2 and 230. WVU is really high on him and he'll start. However, their depth at linebacker is really thin. If anyone gets banged up, they are in trouble.
• I am hearing that we'll show a lot of 2X sets. In other words, two RBs. In some cases, a 2-2 which is two RBs and two TEs.
• I expect we'll see a lot of pre-snap movement with WVU under adjusting as they expect us to play our typical offense disguised to look different by pre-snap movement. But with several TE's, RBs and WRs to choose from, PSU could come out with some creativity. But I expect us to be conservative, early, in a hostile environment on a potentially wet night. We'll see if AK opens it up in the second half.
• I am not sure what to expect out of our Running Game. We replace a lot of OL and WVUs' front 4 has been good. I expect Allar to run more. I've heard he is much quicker and stronger this year. Moreover, the staff didn't want him running last year as they were not convinced the backup was ready. I understand they are much more comfortable at backup QB for both #2 and #3,
• Overall, we should be able to put points up and I hope to be well into the 30s or more.

Defense

• I am pretty comfortable but am concerned about two things: stopping the run and containing Greene.
• I am told that much of WVUs success last year was their Center who played great against us last year. With two really strong RBs. CJ Donaldson was having a good year and is a load at 6-2 and almost 240 lbs. He got banged up and didn't get the carries later in the season but still had a good year with just under 1000 years rushing and a 5 YPC average. He was also a second-team all-academic B12 player. he may be the one most affected by the loss of their AA center as he is not an outside runner. So that guy is Jahiem White. A PA kid who played at Wiliam Penn in York. He is 5-9 and 195 so he is Mr. Outside. He had just under 900 yards last year as a Frosh and 7.7 YPC. They are really good at RB, perhaps as good as we are.
• They also have a really good TE in 6-7, 255 lb Kole Taylor. he was a highly rated recruit that went to LSU and Xfers to WVU last year and played well against us. He's put on some weight as he was in the 230 range for last years game. He'll be good and we'll be challenged to contain him.
• They've got a stable of WRs that are good but not great. They seem confident but they are not highly recruited guys but come after you with depth. Hudson Clement really came on at the end of last season and looks like one of those "steve largent" or "julian edelman" type of players.
• While they lost a great C and really good LT they seem confident in their OL. They move a starter over to C. But they have a hole to fill at RT. I expect PSU to try and go after that hole by bringing a lot of heat from the Offensive right side in DDS and "Sticks" Abdul Carter. I would guess that we'll do a lot of spying with Rojas and the safeties to contain Greene.
• WVU is going to be, IMHO, a better offense than USC. The only O we'll see better is tOSU's. They are going to score points.

My prediction is PSU 41, WVU 31.

Thanks for the thoughtful and well written game projection, Obliviax. That took some time and effort and was appreciated. The only area I have any disagreement with you is the final score. Too many points by both teams in my opinion. I see it more like 28 to 14 for PSU.