Odds of Four 3-timers in 2018?

[RoarLions1]

Quick look through the record book, and did not see another year with four 2-timers going for their 3rd Individual Championship in the same year. Three guys (Nate Carr, Mark Schultz, Ed Banach) became 3-time champs in 1983...that was the closest.

What are the odds of all four (Heil, Retherford, Martinez, Snyder) becoming 3-time champs?

My guess is 0% .

 

[RVARZR]

I would say Retherford and Snyder have a pretty good shot at it. The other two have some obstacles in their path. I don't put the odds of all 4 winning it very high.

 

[jack66]

Well, in 2016 a said Heil was the least likely #1 to win the championship. In 2017 I said he was the least likely returning champ to repeat ... i'm still not convinced. In 2018 I predict he's the least likely of the 4 to get 3. If I'm wrong again I'll stop raggin on him.

The way I see it.
Snyder 98% chance of winning. (only an injury can stop him)
Zain 98% chance of winning (ditto)
IMar 40% chance of winning
Heil 30% chance of winning.

If I remember my basic probability correctly, that would put the chance of all 4 becoming 3-timers at less than 12%.

 

[El-Jefe]

Yes, 4 3x-ers ... just have to wait one more year for Jason and Bo to make it official.

 

[Cowbell Man]

If Heil wasn’t one of them the odds would be decent. Heil will have to break some bad habits to repeat. He is a 2 time champion so it would be unfair to say he can’t but it seems to me it will be too difficult.