Opening line. Michigan -11

[PeetzPoolBoy]

Perhaps it’s just me, but I think this game is winnable, provided Sean Clifford plays.

Something is wrong with McSorley. He’s lost his touch, firing balls with more velocity and trajectory than necessary. Stevens has a nice arm, but looks at and subsequently throws to the primary receiver.

Clifford is different.

 

[maxxedout]

We’ve actually played well on the road lately. Hope the good guys come up with the win.

 

[Safety Blitz]

I’m not a gambler. Might bet a bottle of Pepsi with my Pitt grad neighbor, but nothing more than that.
As a non-gambler, I would have guessed a tick under two touchdowns. No.5...defense playing well.....QB getting better.....game in the big house.....PSU not exactly playing like a Top10 team the past three games.
So 11 points is not disrespectful in any way in my mind.

 

[Erial_Lion]

LOL


The only three defenses they faced who could fog a mirror all held them to 21 or less....... despite the fact that the Michigan D set them up with numerous short fields.


Michigan may beat PSU by 3 TDS...... PSU has a fistful if issues they need to clean up right now..... but the Michigan O is a strong as lo-fat milk.

Maryland is pretty good defensively too.

 

[2020 is Our Year]

LOL


The only three defenses they faced who could fog a mirror all held them to 21 or less....... despite the fact that the Michigan D set them up with numerous short fields.


Michigan may beat PSU by 3 TDS...... PSU has a fistful if issues they need to clean up right now..... but the Michigan O is a strong as lo-fat milk.

I hope you're right but I think this Michigan offense is a bit underrated. I just can't wait until Saturday to see how we match up with them. Hoping for the best

We have a great week of football coming up. Penn State/Michigan, Georgia @ Kentucky (weird to include Kentucky) and WVU at Texas all at 330 unfortunately. ND @ NW (don't sleep on NW in this one) and Alabama/LSU at night. We'll know a lot more about the playoff picture in a week. Hell with some luck we might even get back in the discussion

 

[LMTLION]

This is great news in terms of bulletin board material. Maybe this will motivate the guys because little else has done so this year. Hopefully Vegas calling them a bunch of nobodies will inspire greatness.

 

[2020 is Our Year]

Perhaps it’s just me, but I think this game is winnable, provided Sean Clifford plays.

Something is wrong with McSorely. He’s lost his touch, firing balls with more velocity and trajectory than necessary. Stevens has a nice arm, but looks at and subsequently throws to the primary receiver.

Clifford is different.

Listen, I don't disagree that McSorley doesn't appear to be the same QB that he was. I think he lacks confidence in his teammates which is a problem but Stevens nor Clifford are going to take his playing time. He's earned the right to play. I when we're 6-2 and he's basically our entire offense. If we were 3-5 it would be a different story.

You'll get to see plenty of one of them next year. I tend to agree it should be Clifford but the coaches know a lot more than us.

 

[YYZ86]

Sagarin has PSU ranked 7th with a ranking of 88.39. Michigan is 4th at 91.97. His home field advantage is 2.43. Interesting to say the least. Notre Dame is 12th.

 

[Safety Blitz]

Perhaps it’s just me, but I think this game is winnable, provided Sean Clifford plays.

Something is wrong with McSorley. He’s lost his touch, firing balls with more velocity and trajectory than necessary. Stevens has a nice arm, but looks at and subsequently throws to the primary receiver.

Clifford is different.

Good bottle of wine with dinner?

 

[mn78psu83]

Good bottle of wine with dinner?

 

[PeetzPoolBoy]

Good bottle of wine with dinner?

Are you asking me out on a date?

 

[Safety Blitz]

Are you asking me out on a date?

Nope...gotta feeling I’d rather ask Peetz.

 

[PennStateTurf2002]

I think Franklin struggles with a target on the teams back, being the hunted, everyone’s super bowl. I think he comes across tense to the team and they follow his lead. The looked like robots a lot the past few weeks. It was good to see them have some fun vs Iowa, show a little emotion and fire.

Now this is his first go around being the hunted team, he and the coaches will learn how to prepare the team better. But this week plays right into Franklin’s hands. He is a master motivator when his team is a under dog. When he can put that chip on their shoulder they play loose, have fun. I don’t know if we can win, lot of factors against us but I have a feeling you will see our best effort of the season, guys pumped, making big plays and having fun. Penn State will play a very solid game Saturday at Michigan.

 

[2020 is Our Year]

I think Franklin struggles with a target on the teams back, being the hunted, everyone’s super bowl. I think he comes across tense to the team and they follow his lead. The looked like robots a lot the past few weeks. It was good to see them have some fun vs Iowa, show a little emotion and fire.

Now this is his first go around being the hunted team, he and the coaches will learn how to prepare the team better. But this week plays right into Franklin’s hands. He is a master motivator when his team is a under dog. When he can put that chip on their shoulder they play loose, have fun. I don’t know if we can win, lot of factors against us but I have a feeling you will see our best effort of the season, guys pumped, making big plays and having fun. Penn State will play a very solid game Saturday at Michigan.

Weren't we the hunted last year after winning the Big Ten title?

 

[YorkLion]

We haven't looked all that good these past 3 games and Michigan has. I'm just hoping the team on the field doesn't underestimate UM. Ever since Franklin's "elite" comments, we've looked anything but.

 

[JJTopp99]

Yeah. I'm not an oddsmaker or a bettor, but I'm assuming that UM gets 7 for the home field and they would be favored on a neutral field at this point.

@Grant Green What say you?

Not factored into this betting line: UM usually gets an easy 3 or 7 point gift from the referines.

 

[psu00]

We haven't looked all that good these past 3 games and Michigan has. I'm just hoping the team on the field doesn't underestimate UM. Ever since Franklin's "elite" comments, we've looked anything but.

I agree. The team appears to have lost its mojo after the Ohio St game and has not looked good the past 3 games. It will likely drop as the week goes on but a 10 point (or so) game prediction isn’t unreasonable IMO.

 

[Grant Green]

Yeah. I'm not an odds maker or a bettor, but I'm assuming that UM gets 7 for the home field and they would be favored on a neutral field at this point.

@Grant Green What say you?

Erial is right in general. 3 is a standard average, but it varies with team. I actually give UM a 3.5 for hfa. I have UM rated at 91 and PSU at 84.7, so -5.3 for UM on a neutral. Add 3.5 and 1 for off a bye and you are at -10. You could make an argument for another point for revenge since PSU embarrassed them last year.

The game actually opened on betonline at -10.5. Line was bet up immediately, but now sits at -10 at bookmaker, which is a pretty sharp book.

Like Erial said, no way it drops below 7. I don't see it getting to 7 ever. More likely to go up again.

But the good news, my annual Vegas trip is this weekend and PSU is something like 7-2 ATS and SU when I'm in Vegas since 2008 (coolestfish can attest to one of those).

 

[royboy]

Interesting week coming up, and some interesting lines in addition to PSU

Alabama a 14.5 point favorite at LSU
Georgia a 9.5 point favorite at Kentucky
Notre Dame 8 point favorite at Northwestern

 

[tboyer]

Agree about this. No question McSorley is playing the worst football of his career at PSU in terms of accuracy and decisionmaking. That INT was just incomprehensible that a senior would make a decision like that. And I think McSorley deserves part (and maybe most) of the blame for the fumble at the other end -- it is fundamental football that a handoff goes all the way into the belly of the running back.

The other play that didn't get attention is that McSorley just blew a TD on the wheel route. Sanders was wide open and for some reason Trace, even though he had good protection, was locked in on the opposite side of the field and didn't see him. The wheel route! The TB should be the No. 1 target. There's no question that if that was Barkley last year or the year before, that ball would have been delivered for the TD.

Then you add in just the general poor throwing. This is the most accurate throwing QB we have ever had at PSU and right now, location is off on maybe 2/3, maybe 3/4 of his passes. Something's off with his mechanics.

So... obviously you don't bench him -- the team is still better with his leadership and he still can make spectacular plays.

But... if McSorley could somehow play like himself this week against Michigan, they woud have a real chance in the game. Whatever he can do to get himself out of this funk and get his mojo back.

Something is wrong with McSorley. He’s lost his touch, firing balls with more velocity and trajectory than necessary.

 

[royboy]

Agree about this. No question McSorley is playing the worst football of his career at PSU in terms of accuracy and decisionmaking. That INT was just incomprehensible that a senior would make a decision like that. And I think McSorley deserves part (and maybe most) of the blame for the fumble at the other end -- it is fundamental football that a handoff goes all the way into the belly of the running back.

The other play that didn't get attention is that McSorley just blew a TD on the wheel route. Sanders was wide open and for some reason Trace, even though he had good protection, was locked in on the opposite side of the field and didn't see him. The wheel route! The TB should be the No. 1 target. There's no question that if that was Barkley last year or the year before, that ball would have been delivered for the TD.

Then you add in just the general poor throwing. This is the most accurate throwing QB we have ever had at PSU and right now, location is off on maybe 2/3, maybe 3/4 of his passes. Something's off with his mechanics.

So... obviously you don't bench him -- the team is still better with his leadership and he still can make spectacular plays.

But... if McSorley could somehow play like himself this week against Michigan, they woud have a real chance in the game. Whatever he can do to get himself out of this funk and get his mojo back.

Good comments, and I agree.

Just my .02, but it wouldn't hurt to have #2 with a few series against Michigan. His size and physicality could work well vs the Michigan defense.

 

[LongJakk]

Take the points. Our offense is better than the numbers suggest. We've played three straight games against good defenses in bad weather, which slowed us down.
MSU Rain/wind
@ind wind
Iowa Rain/wind

 

[ivan brunetti]

Michigan's due to implode like OSU did last weekend

That must mean Bama is REALLY due to implode!

 

[mcgunns]

But... if McSorley could somehow play like himself this week against Michigan, they woud have a real chance in the game. Whatever he can do to get himself out of this funk and get his mojo back.

I've heard him mention getting nervous before. Wouldn't surprise me if playing as a big underdog is exactly what he needs to get his old mentality back.

 

[Nittany Ziggy]

 

[ivan brunetti]

Not any huge difference, but this site shows Michigan opening at -10 and pretty much holding.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

 

[lyndj]

Would not be surprised if we get shutout

Perhaps sarcasm? If not, then you don't watch much football. UM isn't capable of shutting PSU out.

 

[lyndj]

Sounds about right to me. PSU is going to have a creative game plan and win the turnover battle if they hope to beat Michigan. Sanders isn't going to find much running room between the tackles. Michigan's defense is too strong. We beat them last year and ND beat them this year by spreading them out.

We heard how strong the vaunted Michigan defense was last year.

 

[jimjim47]

But does PSU have all its linebackers because that is why PSU lost 49-10 the last time they were in AA (with McSorley and Barkley and Geisicki and Hamilton). Just asking before the game.

 

[Grant Green]

Not any huge difference, but this site shows Michigan opening at -10 and pretty much holding.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

A few things on opening line. Don't trust vegasinsider. I'm not sure where their numbers come from. They aren't consistent from my experience.
People usually get opening lines from
1. betonline - the first offshore to put lines out at low limits. These often move quite a bit since they are soft.
2. bookmaker - a sharp book that releases after betonline lines have moved a bit. It's considered a better open by some since the sharp guys have already hammered some of the kinks out.
3. Wynn- the first brick and mortar to put lines out.

I lean to betonline even though they are a bit soft. It opened at -10.5 - I watched it post. Just be cautious because sometimes they make a mistake and put out a really bad line. It gets corrected quickly, but the bad line will often be posted on other websites. For the betonline openers, go here:https://pregame.com/game-center/?d=NaN&t=0&l=2&a=0&s=AwayRot&m=false&b=undefined&o=Current&c=All&k=

 

[Grant Green]

But does PSU have all its linebackers because that is why PSU lost 49-10 the last time they were in AA (with McSorley and Barkley and Geisicki and Hamilton). Just asking before the game.

Damn dude. You are obsessed with this board aren't you?

 

[bdgan]

We heard how strong the vaunted Michigan defense was last year.

I think they were good last year and better this year. Currently ranked #1 in the nation yielding only 220 yds per game.

Last year PSU had a better offense and they also had the best offensive game plan I can remember. Barkley in wildcat, wheel routes, quick tosses, etc. Michigan was much stronger but PSU used speed and quickness to keep them off balance. That's also how ND beat them this year (and by winning the turnover battle). It also helped that it was Patterson's first game for Michigan.

 

[PSU87]

I think they were good last year and better this year. Currently ranked #1 in the nation yielding only 220 yds per game.

Last year PSU had a better offense and they also had the best offensive game plan I can remember. Barkley in wildcat, wheel routes, quick tosses, etc. Michigan was much stronger but PSU used speed and quickness to keep them off balance. That's also how ND beat them this year (and by winning the turnover battle). It also helped that it was Patterson's first game for Michigan.

Too lazy to look at their schedule....has Michigan faced a true running qb this year? Historically that has given them fits.

 

[bdgan]

Too lazy to look at their schedule....has Michigan faced a true running qb this year? Historically that has given them fits.

Wimbush

 

[PSUHarry33]

Perhaps it’s just me, but I think this game is winnable, provided Sean Clifford plays.

Something is wrong with McSorley. He’s lost his touch, firing balls with more velocity and trajectory than necessary. Stevens has a nice arm, but looks at and subsequently throws to the primary receiver.

Clifford is different.

I think we are seeing all the hits on Trace taking its toll on his accuracy.

 

[bkmtnittany1]

We are winning saturday fellas..you heard it here first...

 

[81b&w]

Their offense is better than we're giving them credit for. The only teams that slowed them down were Notre Dame, Northwestern and Michigan State. Michigan scored more point at Michigan State than we did against them at home. The two offenses are probably pretty even at this time given all the drops. If we execute we'll better offensively but that doesn't happened consistently

In other words, the decent teams they've played

 

[2020 is Our Year]

In other words, the decent teams they've played

Wisconsin and Maryland are at least decent defensively.

 

[anon_1eeb2b426hv3y]

Yeah, everyone fears that high powered Michigan offense. Seems your football knowledge is lacking.

Not worried about their offense, just like wasn't worried about MSU's offense or Iowa's.

I'm worried about our offense self-destructing on drives, special teams playing to their recent standard and our defense in the final 1/3 of the game given the other two. Reviewing the stats so far this season, PSU's strong propensity to blow it really shows up. Saturday would be a great time to pull things together.

 

[anon_1eeb2b426hv3y]

Sagarin has PSU ranked 7th with a ranking of 88.39. Michigan is 4th at 91.97. His home field advantage is 2.43. Interesting to say the least. Notre Dame is 12th.

Surprised Sagarin has PSU and Iowa as high. More surprised LSU and ND aren't higher.