I just haven't had time to do my annual threads on each of the main prizes. So, here's an abbreviated version.
Best Supporting Actress:
Viola Davis (Fences)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
Naomie Harris (Moonlight
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
A strong field. Nicole Kidman gave as good a performance as I've seen from her in Lion. Naomie Harris was excellent in Moonlight. Octavia Spencer was very convincing in Hidden Figures. Michelle Williams did OK in Manchester by the Sea, though I thought she kind of overacted in the film. Viola Davis gave a powerful performance in Fences. Left to me, I'd probably give it to Octavia Spencer, with Naomie Harris as a dark horse. Viola Davis has won this award in most of the other competitions (SAG, Critics' Choice, etc.), and she's my pick to win the Oscar.
Best Supporting Actor:
- Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
- Dev Patel (Lion)
- Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
- Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
- Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)
A good field, but with some challenges. Mahershala gave a great performance, but was only in the movie for 1/2 or 2/3 of it. Dev Patel gave his best performance is years, but he was only in the movie for about 1/3 of the film. Michael Shannon gave a terrific performance, but hardly anybody saw the film. Lucas Hedges was OK, but his character wasn't always all that believable, and he also seemed to overact at times in the role. I didn't see Hell or High Water, so I can't comment on Jeff Bridges. If left to me, I would give the award to Michael Shannon, though Mahershala Ali is also tempting. My prediction is an Oscar for Mahershala Ali.
Best Actor:
- Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
- Denzel Washington (Fences)
- Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
- Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
- Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
This is a challgene. Affleck really was believable in Manchester by the Sea. Washington did an excellent job, in a movie that was more talking than scenes (it was a movie version of a play). Mortensen did a nice job in Captain Fantastic, though those movies rarely get much respect. Gosling probably gave the best performance I've ever seen from him, which is saying a lot, as I don't really care for him all that much. I didn't see Hacksaw Ridge, so I can't comment on Andrew Garfield. Left to me, I'd probably give the award to Casey Affleck. Washington seems to be coming on strong of late, so a win by him wouldn't be a shock, but I still predict the Oscar goes to Casey Affleck.
Best Actress:
- Emma Stong (La La Land)
- Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
- Natalie Portman (Jackie)
- Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
- Ruth Negga (Loving)
This is probably the most competitive race among the major awards. Each of the nominees is worthy of an Oscar. I tend to discount Streep, as she always is nominated, and always does a good job, but this wasn't her best performance. Huppert seems to be gaining steam of late. Emma Stone was absolutely captivating in La La Land. Natalie Portman absolutely was perfect as Jackie Kennedy. Lastly, Ruth Negga gave a strong, though understated, performance in Loving. Left to me, I'd probably give the award to Natalie Portman, though I'd be sorely tempted to give it to Ruth Negga. My prediction is the Oscar will go to Emma Stone.
Best Picture:
- La La Land
- Moonlight
- Arrival
- Manchester by the Sea
- Hidden Figures
- Lion
- Fences
- Hell or High Water
- Hacksaw Ridge
So many choices. No dominant film. To me, this is the second most difficult major award to predict. La La Land was entertaining. Some of the scenes were awesome, and the concept was very strong. That said, it's a rather simple movie about ... Hollywood. Ten years from now, hardly anyone will care to watch a rerun on TV, or whatever device they are using. Moonlight is the most interesting movie. It focuses on a subject that is almost never addressed in movies, and does so in a very powerful way. Arrival is interesting, but just not a deep movie to me. Manchester by the Sea is somewhat predictable, but well acted and a pretty strong movie. Hidden Figures is probably the best story and plot in the competition. It suffers a bit from having big issues handled in a Disney-like manner. Lion may be the most moving movie in the bunch. It's a sleeper that came out really late. Fences is a strong story. It was a successful play. I just wish it had been been tweaked more so that it seemed less like a play being shown on the big screen. Hell or High Water and Hacksaw Ridge I didn't see, so I can't comment on them. I have gone back and forth on this. I think Moonlight or Hidden Figures would be the most deserving to win the award, with Manchester by the Sea as well as Lion being films worth of winning the award. Hollywood seems to love films about Hollywood, which does suggest that La La Land may end up with the award. Left to me, I'd give the award to Moonlight, and I hope the Academy does. Alas, I predict that the Oscar goes to La La Land.
Best Director is also one of the big awards, but as I've said in previous years, I have a tough time predicting this award. It often goes to the director of the movie that wins Best Picture, though that's not always the case. As in past years, I'll make no predictions on this award.
As always, the Academy Awards are likely to be interesting. Hopefully, Midnighter will generate a poll on Monday or Tuesday of the best dressed on the Red Carpet.
Best Supporting Actress:
Viola Davis (Fences)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
Naomie Harris (Moonlight
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
A strong field. Nicole Kidman gave as good a performance as I've seen from her in Lion. Naomie Harris was excellent in Moonlight. Octavia Spencer was very convincing in Hidden Figures. Michelle Williams did OK in Manchester by the Sea, though I thought she kind of overacted in the film. Viola Davis gave a powerful performance in Fences. Left to me, I'd probably give it to Octavia Spencer, with Naomie Harris as a dark horse. Viola Davis has won this award in most of the other competitions (SAG, Critics' Choice, etc.), and she's my pick to win the Oscar.
Best Supporting Actor:
- Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
- Dev Patel (Lion)
- Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
- Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
- Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)
A good field, but with some challenges. Mahershala gave a great performance, but was only in the movie for 1/2 or 2/3 of it. Dev Patel gave his best performance is years, but he was only in the movie for about 1/3 of the film. Michael Shannon gave a terrific performance, but hardly anybody saw the film. Lucas Hedges was OK, but his character wasn't always all that believable, and he also seemed to overact at times in the role. I didn't see Hell or High Water, so I can't comment on Jeff Bridges. If left to me, I would give the award to Michael Shannon, though Mahershala Ali is also tempting. My prediction is an Oscar for Mahershala Ali.
Best Actor:
- Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
- Denzel Washington (Fences)
- Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
- Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
- Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
This is a challgene. Affleck really was believable in Manchester by the Sea. Washington did an excellent job, in a movie that was more talking than scenes (it was a movie version of a play). Mortensen did a nice job in Captain Fantastic, though those movies rarely get much respect. Gosling probably gave the best performance I've ever seen from him, which is saying a lot, as I don't really care for him all that much. I didn't see Hacksaw Ridge, so I can't comment on Andrew Garfield. Left to me, I'd probably give the award to Casey Affleck. Washington seems to be coming on strong of late, so a win by him wouldn't be a shock, but I still predict the Oscar goes to Casey Affleck.
Best Actress:
- Emma Stong (La La Land)
- Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
- Natalie Portman (Jackie)
- Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
- Ruth Negga (Loving)
This is probably the most competitive race among the major awards. Each of the nominees is worthy of an Oscar. I tend to discount Streep, as she always is nominated, and always does a good job, but this wasn't her best performance. Huppert seems to be gaining steam of late. Emma Stone was absolutely captivating in La La Land. Natalie Portman absolutely was perfect as Jackie Kennedy. Lastly, Ruth Negga gave a strong, though understated, performance in Loving. Left to me, I'd probably give the award to Natalie Portman, though I'd be sorely tempted to give it to Ruth Negga. My prediction is the Oscar will go to Emma Stone.
Best Picture:
- La La Land
- Moonlight
- Arrival
- Manchester by the Sea
- Hidden Figures
- Lion
- Fences
- Hell or High Water
- Hacksaw Ridge
So many choices. No dominant film. To me, this is the second most difficult major award to predict. La La Land was entertaining. Some of the scenes were awesome, and the concept was very strong. That said, it's a rather simple movie about ... Hollywood. Ten years from now, hardly anyone will care to watch a rerun on TV, or whatever device they are using. Moonlight is the most interesting movie. It focuses on a subject that is almost never addressed in movies, and does so in a very powerful way. Arrival is interesting, but just not a deep movie to me. Manchester by the Sea is somewhat predictable, but well acted and a pretty strong movie. Hidden Figures is probably the best story and plot in the competition. It suffers a bit from having big issues handled in a Disney-like manner. Lion may be the most moving movie in the bunch. It's a sleeper that came out really late. Fences is a strong story. It was a successful play. I just wish it had been been tweaked more so that it seemed less like a play being shown on the big screen. Hell or High Water and Hacksaw Ridge I didn't see, so I can't comment on them. I have gone back and forth on this. I think Moonlight or Hidden Figures would be the most deserving to win the award, with Manchester by the Sea as well as Lion being films worth of winning the award. Hollywood seems to love films about Hollywood, which does suggest that La La Land may end up with the award. Left to me, I'd give the award to Moonlight, and I hope the Academy does. Alas, I predict that the Oscar goes to La La Land.
Best Director is also one of the big awards, but as I've said in previous years, I have a tough time predicting this award. It often goes to the director of the movie that wins Best Picture, though that's not always the case. As in past years, I'll make no predictions on this award.
As always, the Academy Awards are likely to be interesting. Hopefully, Midnighter will generate a poll on Monday or Tuesday of the best dressed on the Red Carpet.
