OT. Analysis of going on 4th down

[Grant Green]

This is a review of the eagles 4th down attempts this season. I thought I would post here since this topic has been debated with respect to PSU in the past.http://www.phillyvoice.com/analysis-all-29-doug-pedersons-4th-down-go-it-calls-2017/
A relatively small sample size but pretty conclusive.
http://www.phillyvoice.com/analysis-all-29-doug-pedersons-4th-down-go-it-calls-2017/
http://www.phillyvoice.com/analysis-all-29-doug-pedersons-4th-down-go-it-calls-2017/

 

[Raffycorn]

The numbers have said for years that coaches punt far too often and kick field goals too often versus going for it on fourth down.

 

[ILLINOISLION]

The spin off from the Big Bang Theory is Young Sheldon. IMHO, a cute and well written show.

In the show’s maybe 5th-6th episode, Sheldon’s Dad is the local high school football coach. Sheldon, with his mathematical genius, convinces his Dad it’s always better to go for it on fourth down. They do it successfully in a big game and all of a sudden Young Sheldon is a hero.....as a high school freshman several grades ahead of where he should be in school.

 

[sluggo72]

This is a review of the eagles 4th down attempts this season. I thought I would post here since this topic has been debated with respect to PSU in the past.
A relatively small sample size but pretty conclusive.
http://www.phillyvoice.com/analysis-all-29-doug-pedersons-4th-down-go-it-calls-2017/

thanks for posting. a couple of questions/thoughts, is the writer Ted Kempski's son ( Ted was the long time OC a Delaware for Tubby Raymond)?
It seems many 4th down attempts were against the Broncos/Bears with a big lead so does that count? Also many were on the Eagles side of the field, that said there were some like in the Super Bowl around the -40.
As the article points out, one year you are a goat, and the next when it works, a genius. When you have a QB Carson Wentz size, and a team that does run plays from under center, I think it makes sense.

 

[Plan Ahaed]

When I saw a spelling/grammar error in the 3rd sentence it didn't bode well for the rest of the article. I made it about 2 plays in before I gave up as there was very little actual analysis of each time the Eagles went for it on 4th down - just a description of the play itself. Then a 3 sentence conclusion to wrap it all up that included the phrase "Doug Pederson has some balls." Of that I don't disagree - but overall a poorly written, or structured (not sure which) article.

I appreciate the gamesmanship of going for it on 4th down and as Raffy said it has been proven mathematically to be the right call more often than not.

 

[Grant Green]

It seems many 4th down attempts were against the Broncos/Bears with a big lead so does that count?
As the article points out, one year you are a goat, and the next when it works, a genius.

If you are looking at all calls, then they count. If they missed any of those and the opp scored, it would have counted as points lost in his tally.

Yeah, people need to keep it in mind in the future. Just because going for it fails in one situation, it doesn't mean that it isn't the right thing to do in the long run.
PS. The Eagles were 48% on 4th last year and 69 this year. Pretty good play calling.

 

[Jerademan74]

If you are looking at all calls, then they count. If they missed any of those and the opp scored, it would have counted as points lost in his tally.

Yeah, people need to keep it in mind in the future. Just because going for it fails in one situation, it doesn't mean that it isn't the right thing to do in the long run.
PS. The Eagles were 48% on 4th last year and 69 this year. Pretty good play calling.

Yes, 69 is my favorite number! Go for it on any down!

 

[Obliviax]

I have several thoughts on this:

• the issue is different in the NFL than college ball, well some college ball. Teams go from the 20 to the 20 pretty easily in the NFL. Many coaches coach to get a turnover between the 20's and only try to play real defense in the red zone. I guess many college teams, looking at you big 12, are the same. Does Baylor or OK State ever punt?
• Its not just not making it on fourth down, but it potentially creates a momentum swing. And football is all about momentum; getting all 11 players on the same page. So if you are up by ten in the third, why go for it on 4th down at your own 40?
• So that makes the move to go for it kind of situational. Are you playing a high scoring game? A team you can't stop? In the first or forth quarter? game you expect to win or lose?
• Being situational, coaches are naturally more defensive. A missed 4th down play that loses the key game can be a career ender but punting and not being able to stop them allows you to coach on another day.

 

[Nitt1300]

 

[crm114psu]

For the 2017 season, Alabama converted on 15 of 18 4th down attempts, a percentage of 0.833. I think prior to the Auburn game they were something like 13 for 13, which sounded pretty amazing.

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/700

 

[58psu77]

Too lazy to look it up this late at night, but there was a high school coach in Arkansas who never punted, never attempted to field an opponents’ punt and always followed a score with an onsides kick. Won several state titles. Theory based as much on likely outcome of what an opponent will do taking over possession as the likelihood of converting. For example, if team at midfield facing 4th and between 5 to 10 yards only converts converts 3 of 10 times, how many of those 7 failed attempts result in opponent driving 50-60 yards for points? Seem to recall a U of Chicago statistical study supporting going for it more often vs punt. Basically the argument in favor of punting for field position comes from the fear of failure, especially those 4th and short.

 

[PearlSUJam]

PS. The Eagles were 48% on 4th last year and 69 this year. Pretty good play calling.

Pretty good play calling for sure, unlike Todd Haley's sweep right with 4th and inches against the Jags. It's fitting he ended up with the Browns. I just hope Saquon doesn't get drafted by the Browns and have plays called by Mr. Bubble Screen.

Did I mention he has a history of this bullsh!t?

 

[anacreon3]

When I saw a spelling/grammar error in the 3rd sentence it didn't bode well for the rest of the article. I made it about 2 plays in before I gave up as there was very little actual analysis of each time the Eagles went for it on 4th down - just a description of the play itself. Then a 3 sentence conclusion to wrap it all up that included the phrase "Doug Pederson has some balls." Of that I don't disagree - but overall a poorly written, or structured (not sure which) article.

I appreciate the gamesmanship of going for it on 4th down and as Raffy said it has been proven mathematically to be the right call more often than not.

Well, aren't you the pedantic one.

 

[anacreon3]

For the 2017 season, Alabama converted on 15 of 18 4th down attempts, a percentage of 0.833. I think prior to the Auburn game they were something like 13 for 13, which sounded pretty amazing.

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/700

Looks like P.J. and the Gophers were able to Row the Boat 10 out of 13 times on 4th down, good for 2nd place at a .769 clip.

 

[Rollin Stone]

Too lazy to look it up this late at night, but there was a high school coach in Arkansas who never punted, never attempted to field an opponents’ punt and always followed a score with an onsides kick. Won several state titles. Theory based as much on likely outcome of what an opponent will do taking over possession as the likelihood of converting. For example, if team at midfield facing 4th and between 5 to 10 yards only converts converts 3 of 10 times, how many of those 7 failed attempts result in opponent driving 50-60 yards for points? Seem to recall a U of Chicago statistical study supporting going for it more often vs punt. Basically the argument in favor of punting for field position comes from the fear of failure, especially those 4th and short.

Part of his thought process was that he felt practicing special teams was a waste of time. The most time spent on special teams is the punt team. Which is why he never punted. With KO coverage he felt it was a risk reward so it was easier to kick it out of bounds and give it to the other team and just play defense.

So that coach was looking at it also from a practice time stand point. More time to practice offense and defense and get better in those areas.

 

[PS4814]

Well, aren't you the pedantic one.

​

 

[pointingdogsrule]

...did they use the "fullback"

 

[PSUoh90]

Yes, 69 is my favorite number! Go for it on any down!

What's a 69?

 

[Jerademan74]

What's a 69?

The better question is what's a 68? Answer: You do me and I'll owe you one

 

[ILLINOISLION]

You say 68 - I say Mike Reid!

 

[anacreon3]

It's amazing how quickly these threads degenerate.

 

[ILLINOISLION]

It's amazing how quickly these threads degenerate.

Well, Mike Reid could and did quickly degenerate any and every Offense he ever saw!

 

[LafayetteBear]

Love the thread title. Can't wait for Grant's analysis of "Going for home plate."

 

[Nitt1300]

More aggressive play calling certainly makes the game more interesting