OT: Dow 12,000 - whoops 2*12,000

[mrtailgate]

Still one of the board's more enlightened predictions.

Back to your regularly scheduled programming.

 

[Mack_Daddy]

Still one of the board's more enlightened predictions.

Back to your regularly scheduled programming.

Keep antagonizing me. See what happens.

 

[NitneLiun]

That's what three iterations of quantitative easing will do for you. Keeping interest rates at artificially low levels for years creates equities bubbles. When the bubble bursts, it won't be pretty.

 

[Lion8286]

Still one of the board's more enlightened predictions.

Back to your regularly scheduled programming.

That prediction was made by one of the biggest fools out there. Community college grad.

 

[Mack_Daddy]

That's what three iterations of quantitative easing will do for you. Keeping interest rates at artificially low levels for years creates equities bubbles. When the bubble bursts, it won't be pretty.

Yeah, but, at least Naked Apes have guns to defend themselves.

 

[Mack_Daddy]

That prediction was made by one of the biggest fools out there. Community college grad.

I just realized... In 25 more days, you'll be celebrating the birth of Your God from a virgin.

You must be so proud.

 

[sluggo72]

may be 25,000 by 4 pm.

 

[hagberg]

Still one of the board's more enlightened predictions.

Back to your regularly scheduled programming.

I remember a prediction of 5,000.....by March. I'm guessing that poster must not have meant March 2017.

 

[sluggo72]

That's what three iterations of quantitative easing will do for you. Keeping interest rates at artificially low levels for years creates equities bubbles. When the bubble bursts, it won't be pretty.

why do you think rates are 'artificially' low?

 

[NitneLiun]

why do you think rates are 'artificially' low?

Seriously?

Go read a book.

Learn something.

 

[sluggo72]

Seriously?

Go read a book.

Learn something.

Yes seriously. The bond market other than fed funds rate is based on supply and demand. So let's think, where should I put my money?? In some Euro country and get negative ror, or in the US and get a better credit and a positive yield?? Thus there are more buyers than sellers and rates stay low do to market forces
Books are written after the fact, it will be interesting to see what is written this time

 

[bdgan]

That's what three iterations of quantitative easing will do for you. Keeping interest rates at artificially low levels for years creates equities bubbles. When the bubble bursts, it won't be pretty.

The market might indeed be overvalued but the fact is this post election surge has occurred during a period of interest rates rising and the Fed reducing it's balance sheet.

 

[itsofficial101]

The market might indeed be overvalued but the fact is this post election surge has occurred during a period of interest rates rising and the Fed reducing it's balance sheet.

Obviously there is the potential for a bubble bursting due to the easing of interest rates for the past almost decade, do you think we can grow our way out of it? Obviously this huge post election surge occurring simultaneously with rising interest rates and the Fed reducing it's balance sheet has to be taken as positive. Now with over 3% GDP in spite of the damages from the hurricanes, I'm wondering if we can actually grow our way out of the almost decade long artificially raised market due to quantitative easing. Thoughts?

 

[Nitwit97]

I just realized... In 25 more days, you'll be celebrating the birth of Your God from a virgin.

You must be so proud.

Actually, you got that wrong too... at least know the story before you slam it. God loves people like you the most.

 

[Nitwit97]

The market might indeed be overvalued but the fact is this post election surge has occurred during a period of interest rates rising and the Fed reducing it's balance sheet.

If you want to know where markets are going - follow Rothschild money. They run everything.
The dollar is over valued, ever since the printed money is no longer backed by gold, the whole thing is on stilts. If you want to protect yourself, get gold. It holds its value relative to prices of goods, etc

 

[bdgan]

Obviously there is the potential for a bubble bursting due to the easing of interest rates for the past almost decade, do you think we can grow our way out of it? Obviously this huge post election surge occurring simultaneously with rising interest rates and the Fed reducing it's balance sheet has to be taken as positive. Now with over 3% GDP in spite of the damages from the hurricanes, I'm wondering if we can actually grow our way out of the almost decade long artificially raised market due to quantitative easing. Thoughts?

The S&P 500 PE ratio i approximately 24 compared to an historical average of 17. That means the market would drop by 29% if it reverted to history. I don't see that happening as long as corporate tax cuts go through. Otherwise we should't see more than a 10% correction. It's anybody's guess when that happens. In the long term stocks trade as a multiple of earnings. In the short term there is a lot more emotion involved.

I seriously doubt that Trump will make it 3 more years without a correction. That's not a partisan statement. I think the market would have fared worse under Hillary.

 

[bdgan]

If you want to know where markets are going - follow Rothschild money. They run everything.
The dollar is over valued, ever since the printed money is no longer backed by gold, the whole thing is on stilts. If you want to protect yourself, get gold. It holds its value relative to prices of goods, etc

• The U.S. went off the gold standard in 1971. Back then the DOW traded at 800. Today it's 24,000. The stilts have held up for a long time.
• I share your concern about debt and printed money but keep in mind that the dollar's value is relative to other currencies. The dollar can actually get stronger against other currencies if we debase it less than other countries debase theirs.
• Gold doesn't make a profit. It's value is driven by fear. In fact it's down quite a bit since the bottom of the last recession. A small amount used as a hedge is OK but I think it's foolish to make it your primary holding.

https://www.snopes.com/rothschild-family-wealth/

 

[Mack_Daddy]

Actually, you got that wrong too... at least know the story before you slam it. God loves people like you the most.

 

[Mack_Daddy]

• The U.S. went off the gold standard in 1971. Back then the DOW traded at 800. Today it's 24,000. The stilts have held up for a long time.
• I share your concern about debt and printed money but keep in mind that the dollar's value is relative to other currencies. The dollar can actually get stronger against other currencies if we debase it less than other countries debase theirs.
• Gold doesn't make a profit. It's value is driven by fear. In fact it's down quite a bit since the bottom of the last recession. A small amount used as a hedge is OK but I think it's foolish to make it your primary holding.

https://www.snopes.com/rothschild-family-wealth/

The S&P 500 PE ratio i approximately 24 compared to an historical average of 17. That means the market would drop by 29% if it reverted to history. I don't see that happening as long as corporate tax cuts go through. Otherwise we should't see more than a 10% correction. It's anybody's guess when that happens. In the long term stocks trade as a multiple of earnings. In the short term there is a lot more emotion involved.

I seriously doubt that Trump will make it 3 more years without a correction. That's not a partisan statement. I think the market would have fared worse under Hillary.

Well, according to your anal-ysis, then, why did the market take (ahem) 53% drop from 10/2007 (14093) to 06/2009 (6626)??????

 

[bdgan]

Well, according to your anal-ysis, then, why did the market take (ahem) 53% drop from 10/2007 (14093) to 06/2009 (6626)??????

I guess you weren't watching the news. The market dropped because people went too far into debt and weren't able to repay the debt. The individuals and the people holding the debt were both getting killed to the point where major banks, GSEs, insurers, etc. were on the verge of bankruptcy.

Household debt as once again risen and that's a concern. But lending standards are more strict and banks are better capitalized than they were in 2007.

It's your choice what to do with your money but if you're 100% out of the market now you were probably largely out of the market when Trump got elected last November. How has that worked out for you?

 

[Mack_Daddy]

I guess you weren't watching the news. The market dropped because people went too far into debt and weren't able to repay the debt. The individuals and the people holding the debt were both getting killed to the point where major banks, GSEs, insurers, etc. were on the verge of bankruptcy.

Household debt as once again risen and that's a concern. But lending standards are more strict and banks are better capitalized than they were in 2007.

It's your choice what to do with your money but if you're 100% out of the market now you were probably largely out of the market when Trump got elected last November. How has that worked out for you?

GOTCHA!!!!

And you OBVIOUSLY knew this ahead of time and made TRILLIONS selling short, right? What makes YOU think you can predict the future???

You're brilliant, alright - brilliant AFTER the fact.

 

[Cosmos]

Obviously there is the potential for a bubble bursting due to the easing of interest rates for the past almost decade, do you think we can grow our way out of it? Obviously this huge post election surge occurring simultaneously with rising interest rates and the Fed reducing it's balance sheet has to be taken as positive. Now with over 3% GDP in spite of the damages from the hurricanes, I'm wondering if we can actually grow our way out of the almost decade long artificially raised market due to quantitative easing. Thoughts?

Not without another "new" invention such as the internet. During the .com bubble employers were for dying for help. You don't see that now. Perhaps cryptocurrency is the new accelerant. As little as I know about Bitcoin it's the underlying architecture, the blockchain ledger, which has value. I would urge investors caution, however, for I've never known an encryption that can't be broken...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/topics/enigma

 

[bdgan]

GOTCHA!!!!

And you OBVIOUSLY knew this ahead of time and made TRILLIONS selling short, right? What makes YOU think you can predict the future???

You're brilliant, alright - brilliant AFTER the fact.

I don't try to predict the market but I do rebalance. That said, here's some history:
When the Shiller PE is below 14 the real 10 yr annual gains for the S&P are 9.1%.
When the Shiller PE is above 21 the real 10 yr annual gains for the S&P are 0.9%.

BTW, you're an idiot.

 

[LionJim]

I guess you weren't watching the news. The market dropped because people went too far into debt and weren't able to repay the debt. The individuals and the people holding the debt were both getting killed to the point where major banks, GSEs, insurers, etc. were on the verge of bankruptcy.

Household debt as once again risen and that's a concern. But lending standards are more strict and banks are better capitalized than they were in 2007.

It's your choice what to do with your money but if you're 100% out of the market now you were probably largely out of the market when Trump got elected last November. How has that worked out for you?

Okay, Mike, why don't you tell us why you felt the need to predict a drop to 12.000? Based on what? bdgan gives us a good summary of why the market dropped in the oughts. Makes sense to me. Why did you think that the market would drop to 12,000 and can you explain why you were so wrong about it?

 

[Mack_Daddy]

Okay, Mike, why don't you tell us why you felt the need to predict a drop to 12.000? Based on what? bdgan gives us a good summary of why the market dropped in the oughts. Makes sense to me. Why did you think that the market would drop to 12,000 and can you explain why you were so wrong about it?

I had a "gut instinct" it was gonna happen. Turns out, it was just gas.

So, do you think it's just gonna keep going up, and up, and up and up, and up.....

 

[LionJim]

I had a "gut instinct" it was gonna happen. Turns out, it was just gas.

So, do you think it's just gonna keep going up, and up, and up and up, and up.....

No, Mack, I don't think it's gonna keep going up and up and up. There's going to be a correction somewhere down the line, there always is, and when it comes it's going to hit some people a lot harder than others, that's another fact of life. Anyway, thanks for the response.

 

[Mack_Daddy]

No, Mack, I don't think it's gonna keep going up and up and up. There's going to be a correction somewhere down the line, there always is, and when it comes it's going to hit some people a lot harder than others, that's another fact of life. Anyway, thanks for the response.

 

[Obliviax]

market just dropped 300 pts on the fly/trump news!

 

[LionJim]

market just dropped 300 pts on the fly/trump news!

No, it obviously happened because the Tennessee AD got canned.

 

[itsofficial101]

Obviously there is the potential for a bubble bursting due to the easing of interest rates for the past almost decade, do you think we can grow our way out of it? Obviously this huge post election surge occurring simultaneously with rising interest rates and the Fed reducing it's balance sheet has to be taken as positive. Now with over 3% GDP in spite of the damages from the hurricanes, I'm wondering if we can actually grow our way out of the almost decade long artificially raised market due to quantitative easing. Thoughts?

I was thinking 10% correction post-election regardless of who had won but to this point am eating crow. Have to figure it comes at some point but the growth appears to be so much better than expected at this point and I wonder if it can't get even better with this new legislation easing tax burdens and obviously a number of companies already announcing pro-growth plans should it pass. Can we get to 4% or higher growth?

 

[sluggo72]

I was thinking 10% correction post-election regardless of who had won but to this point am eating crow. Have to figure it comes at some point but the growth appears to be so much better than expected at this point and I wonder if it can't get even better with this new legislation easing tax burdens and obviously a number of companies already announcing pro-growth plans should it pass. Can we get to 4% or higher growth?

well you where right, you just were asleep, literally, when it happened. I believe at 2 am the morning after the election the Dow futures were off 1000 point. By 4 pm that day , I believe they were positive. so you darn near hat your 10% just things now happen so fast.

 

[bdgan]

I was thinking 10% correction post-election regardless of who had won but to this point am eating crow. Have to figure it comes at some point but the growth appears to be so much better than expected at this point and I wonder if it can't get even better with this new legislation easing tax burdens and obviously a number of companies already announcing pro-growth plans should it pass. Can we get to 4% or higher growth?

I posted at the time that the next president would experience a correction, but not immediately after the election. I still expect that to happen. If Trump's lucky it will happen in the next 18 months. Reelection would be difficult if it happens lat year 3 or year 4.