OT: My Week 4 edition of "that betting line seems weird" Top 25 edition

[TenerHallTerror]

DISCLAIMER: I no longer gamble on college football games. Haven't for years. But I did it for years. I understand the goal of Vegas is to get as many people betting on each side of a game as possible. I understand the vig. I still believe Woody Hayes had money on that game. You know what I am talking about.

PSU -18 vs Indiana: I honestly don't understand that spread. -18? means on a neutral field PSU is . . . -15? I can't even do this math in my head. Penn State is favored by . . . 2 TDs and 2 safeties? 6 FGs?? AHHHHHHHHHHH!

UGA -7.5 @ Tenn: Tenn should be 4-0. GA barely beat ND.

OSU -30.5 @ Rutgres: hee hee hee Rutgres. they're terrible. I think Urban is pissed that PSU, MI, and WI are still ranked above the Buckeyes in the AP. He will mercilessly abuse Rutgres.

SDSU -11 vs N Ill: big hangover game for "other" Huskies after the emotional win in Nebraska. Sudsy won't throw 2 pick 6s.

 

[Grant Green]

DISCLAIMER: I no longer gamble on college football games. Haven't for years. But I did it for years. I understand the goal of Vegas is to get as many people betting on each side of a game as possible. I understand the vig. I still believe Woody Hayes had money on that game. You know what I am talking about.

PSU -18 vs Indiana: I honestly don't understand that spread. -18? means on a neutral field PSU is . . . -15? I can't even do this math in my head. Penn State is favored by . . . 2 TDs and 2 safeties? 6 FGs?? AHHHHHHHHHHH!

UGA -7.5 @ Tenn: Tenn should be 4-0. GA barely beat ND.

OSU -30.5 @ Rutgres: hee hee hee Rutgres. they're terrible. I think Urban is pissed that PSU, MI, and WI are still ranked above the Buckeyes in the AP. He will mercilessly abuse Rutgres.

SDSU -11 vs N Ill: big hangover game for "other" Huskies after the emotional win in Nebraska. Sudsy won't throw 2 pick 6s.

My raw number for PSU is -20.9. I think you can deduct a few points for a little hangover after an emotional win, so that line looks about right to me. PSU got bet up from -16.5 to -17.5.

Raw number is UGA -5.7. However, I think you are underrating both ND and UGA. In fact, I think everyone is under rating UGA. A night game win at ND with a freshman QB starting his first game was big. Also, UT is not that good. They struggled against UMass (with no Breneman and the QB got hurt). All that said, I think it's a bad spot for UGA and I may lean UT at 7.5.

Raw number for OSU is -24.2, so I think this line is actually inflated. There is no way I'm betting Rutgers though.

N Ill beat UN two weeks ago, so I'm not sure if this qualified as a hangover game. Giving 2 points for a bye to N Ill, but one point for SDSU for a night home game, I have this spread at -15.6. I really like SDSU, but this line is oddly low.

 

[TenerHallTerror]

My raw number for PSU is -20.9. I think you can deduct a few points for a little hangover after an emotional win, so that line looks about right to me. PSU got bet up from -16.5 to -17.5.

Raw number is UGA -5.7. However, I think you are underrating both ND and UGA. In fact, I think everyone is under rating UGA. A night game win at ND with a freshman QB starting his first game was big. Also, UT is not that good. They struggled against UMass (with no Breneman and the QB got hurt). All that said, I think it's a bad spot for UGA and I may lean UT at 7.5.

Raw number for OSU is -24.2, so I think this line is actually inflated. There is no way I'm betting Rutgers though.

N Ill beat UN two weeks ago, so I'm not sure if this qualified as a hangover game. Giving 2 points for a bye to N Ill, but one point for SDSU for a night home game, I have this spread at -15.6. I really like SDSU, but this line is oddly low.

#1 - my only issue with the PSU line is 18 points is just WEIRD. may be accurate, but that is like 21-3. 35-17. ALMOST 3 TDs but not quite.

#2 - I think Tenn played sloppy after the heartbreaking loss to Fla. They're better than that, and Butch Jones knows that.

#3 - Rutgres has a signature win over Morgan State!!! I also think the negative press around the Scarlet Knights has a "karmic" influence. I wouldn't be shocked if the Buckeyes drop 50 on them in the first half.

#4 - I'm also factoring in the "jet lag" of flying 2000 miles to play SDSU. and yes, the line seemed off. I complain about this all the time. if you're going to rank a team #19, then how do you justify a lower conference opponent ON THE ROAD getting spotted only 11 points??

 

[john4psu]

I would give the points to Rutgers and feel very safe. We will learn a lot about Tennessee this week and how hard the Vols play for Butch Jones. Dead man walking?

 

[TenerHallTerror]

I would give the points to Rutgers and feel very safe. We will learn a lot about Tennessee this week and how hard the Vols play for Butch Jones. Dead man walking?

well he is certainly on the hot seat, but it appears Shy Tuttle is back, and maybe the players have something to prove after 2 disappointing turnouts

 

[Cletus11]

Urban needs a big, lopsided win to stay relevant. Rutgers is not very good. Urban will keep starters in for an extra score or two and he won't take the gas off when the second string is in. I think OSU scores 50+ and no way RU gets 3 touchdowns.

 

[Grant Green]

#1 - my only issue with the PSU line is 18 points is just WEIRD. may be accurate, but that is like 21-3. 35-17. ALMOST 3 TDs but not quite.

#2 - I think Tenn played sloppy after the heartbreaking loss to Fla. They're better than that, and Butch Jones knows that.

#3 - Rutgres has a signature win over Morgan State!!! I also think the negative press around the Scarlet Knights has a "karmic" influence. I wouldn't be shocked if the Buckeyes drop 50 on them in the first half.

#4 - I'm also factoring in the "jet lag" of flying 2000 miles to play SDSU. and yes, the line seemed off. I complain about this all the time. if you're going to rank a team #19, then how do you justify a lower conference opponent ON THE ROAD getting spotted only 11 points??

First, there are a few -18's out there for PSU, but most are -17.5. I see lines like 12 and 18 routinely. Yes, odd numbers, but remember, it's a theoretical number, not a true expected score difference.

I would disagree with your assessment on UT. They could be a hot mess very soon. From one of the guys I follow from last week:
"I’ve got good info that there’s a load of conflict taking place off the field for the Volunteers, as members of the coaching staff are not exactly seeing eye to eye these days. That’s not a good thing and I’ve heard, again via respected sources, that the “wheels might be about to come off”."
Also, remember that UGA lost a heartbreaker last year after UT answered UGAs hail mary with one of their own. Revenge?

I wouldn't be shocked if OSU dropped 50 either. But I wouldn't be shocked if they only win by 24. That is my number (with home field adv) and I have Rutgers ranked 94th with the Temples and East Michigans of the world.

I wonder if that win over Nebraska is getting N Ill more respect than deserved. I'm with you and I will be betting on SDSU

 

[TenerHallTerror]

I wouldn't be shocked if OSU dropped 50 either. But I wouldn't be shocked if they only win by 24. That is my number (with home field adv) and I have Rutgers ranked 94th with the Temples and East Michigans of the world.

I'm trying to balance Meyer's ego on one side, and how dreadfully pitiful Rutgres is on the other side. we'll see how the line moves as game day approaches, but I get the feeling a lot of bettors will like Rutgres at home getting 30 pts . . . suckers!

 

[Grant Green]

I'm trying to balance Meyer's ego on one side, and how dreadfully pitiful Rutgres is on the other side. we'll see how the line moves as game day approaches, but I get the feeling a lot of bettors will like Rutgres at home getting 30 pts . . . suckers!

I don't think you will see the general public betting on Rutgers. OSU is a public team and getting 70% of wagers now (according to one source). If money comes in on Rutgers, I think it will only be sharp money. I do agree that Rutgers has looked terrible, but I also think Jerry Kill may get things going offensively at some point. One other handicap - Chris Ash coached at OSU for two years (I know, didn't help him last year). I don't think I'll touch this one.

 

[john4psu]

Michigan State -3.5 vs Iowa? Is the thinking that Iowa is in for a letdown after our game with them? I did not see the Sparty-Irish game but sounded like Notre Dame won easily.

FSU -8 vs Wake Forest. I.can't imagine a third poor performance from the Seminoles.

 

[TenerHallTerror]

Michigan State -3.5 vs Iowa? Is the thinking that Iowa is in for a letdown after our game with them? I did not see the Sparty-Irish game but sounded like Notre Dame won easily.

FSU -8 vs Wake Forest. I.can't imagine a third poor performance from the Seminoles.

MSU v IND wasn't in the top 25 so I omitted it, but yeah . . . sparty SUUUUUUUUCKS.

same with FSU/WF . . . not top 25, but that said . . . FSU needs to salvage their season at this point . . . WF hasn't had a convincing victory yet . . .

my favorite line of the week is Ok St/Texas Tech O/U at 83.5 . . . jeebers, that's a lot of points. they may score that many in the first half, though LOL

 

[Woodpecker]

I can't even do this math in my head. Penn State is favored by . . . 2 TDs and 2 safeties? 6 FGs?? AHHHHHHHHHHH!

Is a 35 - 17 score that strange? There are lots of ways to have an 18 point difference.

 

[TenerHallTerror]

Is a 35 - 17 score that strange? There are lots of ways to have an 18 point difference.

nah it was just me being a math idiot. and forgetting to divide by the square root of pi over 2

 

[Grant Green]

Sparty may not be that good, but Iowa really isn't either. Not nearly as good as they looked at home, at night, in a revenge game against a top 5 team. Also, I think Iowa's offense (which is not very dynamic) plays into Sparty's strength on defense. Iowa in a let down spot. I have this game close to pick'em and will take Sparty if it gets to -3.

The FSU vs Wake game is the line that jumped out at me. Almost seems like they are begging you to take FSU. FSU's OL is a mess right now and their backup QB isn't too impressive. It's still hard to imagine Wake keeping up with FSU, but this line scares me.

Kind of like OkSt to bounce back. Probably will go over the point total, but I hate betting over on that many points.

 

[TenerHallTerror]

Kind of like OkSt to bounce back. Probably will go over the point total, but I hate betting over on that many points.

I think that is the highest point total I've seen in years . . .

 

[Erial_Lion]

I think that is the highest point total I've seen in years . . .

Believe it or not, Texas Tech had 5 totals that went off above 83.5 in last season alone.

 

[TenerHallTerror]

Believe it or not, Texas Tech had 5 totals that went off above 83.5 in last season alone.

jeez and I live in Tejas! how do I miss these lines?? I need to follow the . . . (quickly looks up TT's conference) . . . Big 12 lines more closely

dayum!! they only went UNDER 80 points in 4 games last year . . .

 

[Grant Green]

I think that is the highest point total I've seen in years . . .

Yeah, you don't see them often, but there have been a number of games in the 80s in the last 5+ years. I'm pretty sure there was a Baylor game that peaked over 90 a few years ago.

 

[TenerHallTerror]

Grant,

looks like you had a good day yesterday, lol

 

[Grant Green]

Grant,

looks like you had a good day yesterday, lol

Actually, I'm dead even on bets including pros but down a little money. Not a great week for me. I really misread some college games.

 

[Woodpecker]

UGA -7.5 @ Tenn: Tenn should be 4-0. GA barely beat ND.

Nailed it

 

[TenerHallTerror]

Nailed it