The market opened down about 1800 today and trading was halted for about 15 minutes. It looks like we could see a big crash today.
OT - stock market trading halted after opening down
- Thread starter Nitwit
- Start date
Any hedge fund that isnt limit short here isnt doing their job.
Also I held a theory that the recent spike in the market was due to leverage on robin hood. New investors like the spike in bitcoin. I imagine they are all wiped out now.
LdN
you watch as BTC falls below 3,000 and all those folks get completely wiped out...there are way too many candles to fix on those charts
For anybody who's kept a big cash hoard, there's a wonderful opportunity here.
Even assuming the US government has totally bungled this, this virus will spread through the US population, and, with or without a vaccine, it will be over in 18-24 months. The economy should be fine when the crisis passes. And the market will bounce back before the economy does.
Not that it won't be horrific -- we might see 3 to 5 million Americans die; it's going to touch every family. I'm speaking purely financially. Stocks are basically 20% off now. Maybe they will get to 40% off. It's a buying opportunity either way as long as you can afford to be patient.
Even assuming the US government has totally bungled this, this virus will spread through the US population, and, with or without a vaccine, it will be over in 18-24 months. The economy should be fine when the crisis passes. And the market will bounce back before the economy does.
Not that it won't be horrific -- we might see 3 to 5 million Americans die; it's going to touch every family. I'm speaking purely financially. Stocks are basically 20% off now. Maybe they will get to 40% off. It's a buying opportunity either way as long as you can afford to be patient.
3-5 million die? My guess is that's 2-3 orders of magnitude too high.
Even that's a pleasant thought. I'd like to think that the U.S. has the wherewithal to prevent a crisis of that proportion. Whether it has the leadership remains to be seen.
I don't see any scenario where 3 - 5 million Americans die and I doubt the worldwide death toll will even get anywhere near that. This is not the plague of the middle ages.
Not to be overly insensitive but need to separate the emotion of losing 3m (if that is the number) and the logic of it. Since it seems the majority of deaths are in the old and infirm range, the financial toll won't be anywhere near as high as if it was teens through age 60. Actually, and this is where insensitivity comes in, it might actually help the economy over the next few years. About 50% of health care costs are experienced in the last three months of life. And it is much less burdensome to families. Could take pressure off of retirement funds and social security as well.
Regardless, no solace for the loss of a loved one. But one needs to separate logic and emotion.
Regardless, no solace for the loss of a loved one. But one needs to separate logic and emotion.
Sold GILD which had run up a little on hopes they have a drug that can be effective. Put 80% in RYTNX (2x S&P 500 fund) and other 20% in 3x 7-10 year bear treasury bill ETF. Shorting the 10 year treasury bond is the current Big Short imo.
Hope so. A 1 percent death rate is 3.2 million souls in the US. And the death rate in Italy right now is holding steady at 3.5 percent even with all the drastic measures that have been taken to slow the thing down.
To me that is the main bad news -- so many people are dying despite modern health care in Italy -- because the hospitals just can't keep up with the large number of critically ill people.
Right now 15% of people get seriously ill and 5% become critically ill. But those numbers are roughly double for over-65.
Here's the math for Berks County, where my dad lives. 400k people. Over-65 population is 17 percent which is just shy of 70,000 people. 70k x 10% would be 7,000 people who need a hospital bed with some life support. And that's just the elderly.... Young people get severely ill too, just not in the same numbers.
Meanwhile Reading Hospital (which is a wonderful hospital by the way) has 750 acute care beds and around 40-50 ICU beds. And it's not like those beds are empty now just waiting for coronavirus patients. St Joseph's is the other hospital in town and they have 20 ICU beds.
If Berks County runs out of hospital beds and has to set up cots in high school gyms, a lot of people will die, a lot more than 3.5%. The only hope is drastic public health measures to keep elderly people from getting the virus. Everybody with elderly loved ones is going to be having to figure this out.
I think the denominator in the death rate is those that become infected, not the entire population.
probably much less in rural and suburban areas.
regardless, this event has the potential to change america like 9-11 over the long run. I can see changes in foreign manufacture, social security, socially acceptable greetings/interactions....hell, they might even finally get rid of those awful wind blowing hand driers nobody uses.
You're both right. tboyer's numbers are too high but the principle is the same. The problem will be running out hospital beds for the seriously ill. You're almost better off being in the first wave of people who get the virus.
You're assuming everyone gets COVID-19. That's not a logically sound assumption.
Yes but this thing is as infectious as a cold -- it spreads everywhere people cough and sneeze, which is .. everywhere. So anybody not a hermit will be exposed, it's just a matter of time.
And really time is the key -- the more governments can slow down the spread, the more time for treatments and countermeasures and vaccine to be invented, the more people will live.
I don't think it would be safe to assume that this will only reach SOME of the population. Unless we have a lot of people living in caves that I don't know about.
And really time is the key -- the more governments can slow down the spread, the more time for treatments and countermeasures and vaccine to be invented, the more people will live.
I don't think it would be safe to assume that this will only reach SOME of the population. Unless we have a lot of people living in caves that I don't know about.
Except, wouldn't they just implement a nationwide 2 week quarantine before it ever got that bad?
I disagree. Look at cruise ships, practically a petri dish for viruses. 3000 customers and 1000 crew members..all in a giant container.....walking close together in narrow hallways....eating together in large cafeterias....attending large stage shows......off-boarding on gangplanks and then getting on tour buses..... locked together for weeks at a time......yet only 30-40 are getting sick.
I don't think this is as contagious as they are saying.....
Seems like this has been mismanaged from the get go. Considering we have had months to get ready. We should have been getting ready with testing kits with the lead time we had. and it seems now we are caught with our pants down. This should have been a mitigation strategy from the start once it was seen what was going on in China rather than ignore and it will surely go away strategy.
You need to walk me though your timeline:
- Dec 31st, first word of a problem
- 1-11 first death
- 1-20 first case outside of China
- 1-30 WHO global health emergency declared
- 2-2 Restricted travel to/from China (with many saying this was an overreaction)
- 2-14 first death outside of China
- 2/21 Korea, Iran announce virus
- 2-23 italy
- 2-29 first US death
- 3-4 US Congress Spending Bill
So lets say congress allocated the money and the govt started working with the private sector on Feb 23rd when the outbreak hit Italy...that is only four weeks ago.
Are you serious? This was only identified on Jan 7th by the Chinese.... just two months ago. Then they wouldn't allow CDC, NIH, or WHO scientists into the country and then restricted their access once permitted entry. So that means we have only had samples to work with for less than six weeks.
Then we had to research the genome, develop a test, find companies to produce the test, get their production lines and suppliers of raw materials up and running along with training the employees, test their systems for quality control, then full production, then distribute and train the testers on how to use them.
Its actually quite the feat of cooperation between government and capitalism to get so far so quickly.
Seriously, I don't know what people expect. You can't just wave your magic wand and these things suddenly appear.
And we have. That said, having read the posts that follow yours, facts and common sense are in short supply in this thread. I will move on.
Tests don't come out of nowhere--they had to be designed first and tested. There was no "test box on a shelf" anywhere. Good science sometimes takes time.
Try to disagree with people without going ad hominem. Everybody's on the same side here.
Actually China's experience could be a cakewalk compared to what the US is facing. China is a military dictatorship and they basically walled off large cities, built giant field hospitals in a matter of days, imposed martial law basically nationwide. So they may be able to control it. Looks like Korea will be able to control it.
But the US isn't a military dictatorship and isn't even trying to control it -- the virus is spreading as we speak city to city and we don't know where because there is essentially no testing.
There is no strategy for walling it off -- not that it's easy to wall off a disease that is spread by asymptomatic people who have no idea they're infected. Any disease that is "community" spread -- by strangers sharing the same space -- is super hard to stop in a free society.
And I'm not blaming the US leadership yet -- the response has been dreadful but it's not clear that even an ideal response would stop this thing. Italy's health care system is one of the world's best and they are overwhelmed right now.
Actually China's experience could be a cakewalk compared to what the US is facing. China is a military dictatorship and they basically walled off large cities, built giant field hospitals in a matter of days, imposed martial law basically nationwide. So they may be able to control it. Looks like Korea will be able to control it.
But the US isn't a military dictatorship and isn't even trying to control it -- the virus is spreading as we speak city to city and we don't know where because there is essentially no testing.
There is no strategy for walling it off -- not that it's easy to wall off a disease that is spread by asymptomatic people who have no idea they're infected. Any disease that is "community" spread -- by strangers sharing the same space -- is super hard to stop in a free society.
And I'm not blaming the US leadership yet -- the response has been dreadful but it's not clear that even an ideal response would stop this thing. Italy's health care system is one of the world's best and they are overwhelmed right now.
Sure -- 73. My response was in relation to the incompleteness of your original statement.
Please explain this to me. What should we have done better to have prevented tanking the markets?
Sold GILD which had run up a little on hopes they have a drug that can be effective. Put 80% in RYTNX (2x S&P 500 fund) and other 20% in 3x 7-10 year bear treasury bill ETF. Shorting the 10 year treasury bond is the current Big Short imo.
I guess that depends on whether you concede that DT has screwed up the virus defense. If you do not, then I cannot help you.
The stock market is dropping because consumers are not spending...the consumer drives the economy.
Is there any guarantee that this virus started in China? Maybe its been in the US all along? Remember the ESPN writer who got "the flu" and died two weeks later (around New Years)? Lots of missing information that is not being discussed in the media. The media is loving this attention and fear mongering.
Is there any guarantee that this virus started in China? Maybe its been in the US all along? Remember the ESPN writer who got "the flu" and died two weeks later (around New Years)? Lots of missing information that is not being discussed in the media. The media is loving this attention and fear mongering.
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