Over/Under? Sanders YPC vs what Saquon had

[royboy]

Saquon rushed for 5.9 yds/carry in 2017; is Miles Sanders likely to exceed that?

Considerations:
Improved O-Line
Less defensive concentration than what Saquon faced
Sanders had 6.2 ypc in 2017, albeit on much smaller sample and different game situations

 

[bison13]

Saquon rushed for 5.9 yds/carry in 2017; is Miles Sanders likely to exceed that?

Considerations:
Improved O-Line
Less defensive concentration than what Saquon faced
Sanders had 6.2 ypc in 2017, albeit on much smaller sample and different game situations

I dont think Sanders has as many negative rushes nor as many 40+ yard rushes but I think he averages slightly more due your top two points

 

[fastlax16]

Saquon rushed for 5.9 yds/carry in 2017; is Miles Sanders likely to exceed that?

Considerations:
Improved O-Line
Less defensive concentration than what Saquon faced
Sanders had 6.2 ypc in 2017, albeit on much smaller sample and different game situations

Depends on how the passing game comes together. If we are able to replace all of the production we lost I think YPC goes up and the offense will be more balanced. If we don't teams will be able to sell out.

All of that being said I just hope we average fewer negative plays on the ground.

 

[phillybillyreprise]

If PSU is winning, it doesn’t matter.

 

[PSU87]

Over.
We will miss Gesicki more than Barkley.
Miles Sanders has been hearing nothing but how badly we are going to miss Barkley. He proves everyone wrong.
Sanders. Runs. Wild.

 

[Nitt1300]

I think there was a bit too much attention paid by the staff last year to the Heisman talk, and as a result Barkley got the ball in some situations where it should have gone somewhere else. Will that translate to more YPC for Sanders? That remains to be seen, but at least we don't have to hear any more of that Heisman nonsense this year

 

[Rip_E_2_Joe_PA]

My thining:
1) the passing game does not miss a beat (Even with Gesicki gone TE will be productive - You could be the second best productive TE receiving and not seen the playing field with Gesicki there). Plus, every tight end will block better that G.
2) The OL improvement (including better TE run and pass blocking)
3) with Rahne we see more split backs in the mix.
4) more defensive turn overs..... more touches.

Mile Sanders would have started his freshman or sophomore year in one hell of a lot of programs. Barkley was the perfect player for a team with a very young tentative OL. Sanders is different but you will be delighted when you see his style of play. Have loved this guy since before he came on board.
Can't wait to see him tear up the turf.

 

[BBrown]

I think there was a bit too much attention paid by the staff last year to the Heisman talk, and as a result Barkley got the ball in some situations where it should have gone somewhere else. Will that translate to more YPC for Sanders? That remains to be seen, but at least we don't have to hear any more of that Heisman nonsense this year

Except, INMO, Trace is going to hear about it and will be at the top of the list to start the season.

 

[ClarkstonMark]

I’ll be shocked if Sanders averages 6+ ypc
But if he does look out

 

[78SweetRevenge]

Under unless he plays the same role as last year because someone beats him out. I don't understand why people think the negative plays are going to disappear...that's always going to exist with this scheme

 

[Nitt1300]

Except, INMO, Trace is going to hear about it and will be at the top of the list to start the season.

he gets the ball every snap anyway, so it's less likely to be a distraction

 

[LionDeNittany]

If PSU is winning, it doesn’t matter.

 

[Obliviax]

I am more interested in Sanders number of and yards per catch. #26 really hurt defenses crashing in on him when he released into a passing route. Then, every pass catch was a chance for a big gainer. It kept defenses honest (well, honester). Sanders, I feel, has proven himself to be a good runner. I feel like he will be a better short game runner but will lack the explosiveness of #26. I've never seen a back that was a threat to score on any and every play. My hope for Sanders is that he can be a compliment to our ample passing game (as the passing game was a compliment to our running game the last three years). (in other words, teams had to work so hard to contain our running game, they left the passing game a bit more open).

I am also looking forward to seeing our Freshman RB, Ricky Slade. While smallish, he looks like he is incredibly explosive. If CJF burns his redshirt, wouldn't be surprised if he is our kickoff return guy.

 

[BBrown]

Yep.

Not to mention, I can't imagine a single thing anyone on the staff did last year that was dictated by "Barkley for Heisman" (he had about 50 FEWER carries, about 20 FEWER total touches last year than he did in 2016 - FWIW)...… and I doubt there will be any such actions this year wrt "McSorley for Heisman"

The only thing I can think of was using him to return kicks and it worked out pretty well. Much better than I thought it would.

 

[lionroar88]

I am more interested in Sanders number of and yards per catch. #26 really hurt defenses crashing in on him when he released into a passing route. Then, every pass catch was a chance for a big gainer. It kept defenses honest (well, honester). Sanders, I feel, has proven himself to be a good runner. I feel like he will be a better short game runner but will lack the explosiveness of #26. I've never seen a back that was a threat to score on any and every play. My hope for Sanders is that he can be a compliment to our ample passing game (as the passing game was a compliment to our running game the last three years). (in other words, teams had to work so hard to contain our running game, they left the passing game a bit more open).

I am also looking forward to seeing our Freshman RB, Ricky Slade. While smallish, he looks like he is incredibly explosive. If CJF burns his redshirt, wouldn't be surprised if he is our kickoff return guy.

Kijana and LJjr were two backs that were a threat each and every time they touched the ball. LJjr was a combination of brute strength (could carry 5+ tacklers for 10+ yds) and explosive speed who didn't need but a sliver of daylight to break one (see his 1st half against MSU). Heck Blair Thomas and Curt Warner were pretty damn good too. I'm 47 and have had the privilege of watching some really good RBs come out of PSU. Barkley is my #1, followed by LJjr, Thomas, Warner, Carter, Enis. Also loved watching Milne and FB we had back in the 90s (can't remember his name).

 

[OaktonDave]

Also loved watching Milne and FB we had back in the 90s (can't remember his name).

Jon Whitman. The 1980's version was Steve Smith and Tim Manoa. You never replace a guy like Saquon, but DJ Dozier wasn't exactly a liability after Warner.

 

[lobo lion]

I am more interested in Sanders number of and yards per catch. #26 really hurt defenses crashing in on him when he released into a passing route. Then, every pass catch was a chance for a big gainer. It kept defenses honest (well, honester). Sanders, I feel, has proven himself to be a good runner. I feel like he will be a better short game runner but will lack the explosiveness of #26. I've never seen a back that was a threat to score on any and every play. My hope for Sanders is that he can be a compliment to our ample passing game (as the passing game was a compliment to our running game the last three years). (in other words, teams had to work so hard to contain our running game, they left the passing game a bit more open).

I am also looking forward to seeing our Freshman RB, Ricky Slade. While smallish, he looks like he is incredibly explosive. If CJF burns his redshirt, wouldn't be surprised if he is our kickoff return guy.

"I've never seen a back that was a threat to score on any and every play."

Well, Sanders is your man.

Barry Sanders, that is.

 

[Obliviax]

"I've never seen a back that was a threat to score on any and every play."

Well, Sanders is your man.

Barry Sanders, that is.

View embedded media

totally agree. Barry was incredible. My only compliant with him is that he was less than 200 lbs. at 5-8. He was not a guy that was great at blocking or short yardage. He was a boom or bust guy. He wasn't great at moving the chains and sustaining drives. The Lions, incredibly, had a better record the year after he abruptly retired (many will disagree with why). But, IMHO, the best ball runner I've ever seen.

 

[LionJim]

I really expect that Journey Brown will make some impact, especially after a year in the weight room. The guy's got speed.

 

[Connorpozlee]

He’s not even close to being in Barkley’s league from what I have seen (which is by no means an indictment). So, all things being equal he would not touch Barkley’s YPC. But I anticipate the line being better, defenses not being focused on him like they were Barkley and Rahne not insisting on making every one of his carries coming from a standstill while giving the defense a full second and a half to attack him before he gets the ball. That said, I think he will exceed Barkley’s YPC.

 

[Obliviax]

I really expect that Journey Brown will make some impact, especially after a year in the weight room. The guy's got speed.

totally agree...certainly passes the "looks test". Very physically able and looked great in the spring game.

 

[Scott beach]

I am more interested in Sanders number of and yards per catch. #26 really hurt defenses crashing in on him when he released into a passing route. Then, every pass catch was a chance for a big gainer. It kept defenses honest (well, honester). Sanders, I feel, has proven himself to be a good runner. I feel like he will be a better short game runner but will lack the explosiveness of #26. I've never seen a back that was a threat to score on any and every play. My hope for Sanders is that he can be a compliment to our ample passing game (as the passing game was a compliment to our running game the last three years). (in other words, teams had to work so hard to contain our running game, they left the passing game a bit more open).

I am also looking forward to seeing our Freshman RB, Ricky Slade. While smallish, he looks like he is incredibly explosive. If CJF burns his redshirt, wouldn't be surprised if he is our kickoff return guy.

I'm also interested to see how well Sanders blocks/picks up blitzes. That was a strong suit of Barkley's that often goes unnoticed but resulted in big passing plays.

 

[78SweetRevenge]

I'm also interested to see how well Sanders blocks/picks up blitzes. That was a strong suit of Barkley's that often goes unnoticed but resulted in big passing plays.

if Sanders can't handle that role we'll find a back that can. Truthfully, in this offense that's vital.

 

[N&B4PSU]

Miles was one of the top 2 RB's in his class and if you stop staring at SB's weightroom doiminance as a RB (and pretty much everywhere else, too), you'll notice the guy finishing 3rd in 5 of the 8 categories is named Miles Sanders.

So we've got this super talented, reasonably big, strong kid who has played a good bit and should make us happy. But it's funny that a guy who is notably smaller than SB (23 pounds) appeared slower and almost lumbering by comparison.

That is testament to how incredibly good Barley was/is... period.

I think Sanders will be a solid replacement and having Brown, Allen, And eventually Slade in the rotation will keep him fresh. I don't think he'll get the over unless the passing game really rocks (agree on missing Gesicki).. but if all the backs show the ability to catch it out of the backfield our offense will not miss much of a beat.

At least I hope so

 

[marshall23]

Don't know about YPC, but if he doesn't miss time due to injury, his rushing totals will be higher than 1271. Miles has paid his dues. I think people have forgotten how highly sought after he was as a recruit. Backs need to get a feel for the flow of a game. This is virtually impossible the way he was utilized in the past. He won't get the catches SB did, but he is going to be a star in his own right. He's hungry and probably sick and tired of hearing about Barkley.

 

[78SweetRevenge]

Don't know about YPC, but if he doesn't miss time due to injury, his rushing totals will be higher than 1271. Miles has paid his dues. I think people have forgotten how highly sought after he was as a recruit. Backs need to get a feel for the flow of a game. This is virtually impossible the way he was utilized in the past. He won't get the catches SB did, but he is going to be a star in his own right. He's hungry and probably sick and tired of hearing about Barkley.

He better get used to hearing about Barkley--he could run for 2000 yards next year but if he isn't as good of a receiver and in blitz protection he's going to hear about Barkley and he won't be Barkley...pretty much no one at the college level has that potential...aside from a certain RB from PA now playing for Georgia. At least, Saquon thinks he has that type of talent

 

[lionroar88]

Jon Whitman. The 1980's version was Steve Smith and Tim Manoa. You never replace a guy like Saquon, but DJ Dozier wasn't exactly a liability after Warner.

Jon was good, but not the one I am thinking of... Jefferson?

 

[78SweetRevenge]

Jon was good, but not the one I am thinking of... Jefferson?

Paul Jefferson? He played in the early 2000s

 

[marshall23]

He better get used to hearing about Barkley--he could run for 2000 yards next year but if he isn't as good of a receiver and in blitz protection he's going to hear about Barkley and he won't be Barkley...pretty much no one at the college level has that potential...aside from a certain RB from PA now playing for Georgia. At least, Saquon thinks he has that type of talent

I hope PSU people speak less and less about SB. He is gone. A wonderful talent and ambassador of the program. May he be a HOF pro. If we are still talking about Barkley at mid season, it won't be a very good sign.

 

[HazletonLion]

The one difference that i noticed with Sanders, is that he hits the hole or corner a shade faster than Saquon. Where Saquon would hit the hole and use some never before seen moves, and he wasn't predictable. Saquon like Herschel Walker had to be stopped at the LOS. I think Miles will carry people with him.

 

[78SweetRevenge]

I hope PSU people speak less and less about SB. He is gone. A wonderful talent and ambassador of the program. May he be a HOF pro. If we are still talking about Barkley at mid season, it won't be a very good sign.

Depends on how you look at it. Other backs can be great in their own right but they'll always be compared to the best to ever play here (at least the guy many consider the best)

Just like Trace is doing great but there will always be comparisons to Collins...even though they're obvious very different

 

[marshall23]

Depends on how you look at it. Other backs can be great in their own right but they'll always be compared to the best to ever play here (at least the guy many consider the best)

Just like Trace is doing great but there will always be comparisons to Collins...even though they're obvious very different

I look at it precisely how I wrote it. Honor the past, win today.

 

[tboyer]

That's a really tough one to guess. Because of the improved OL and Sanders' style, there won't be nearly as many TFLs given up. If the OL is as good as everybody hopes, there will be a lot more successful 5-6 yard runs on 3rd and 3, which doesn't help YPC too much but is really good for the team. Sanders doesn't have Barkley's top end speed of course, but he's got good speed. So maybe as many 40 yard runs but not as many 70-80 yard runs.

Anyway if Sanders can average 5-5.5 YPC in the context of a diverse offense that could be good I think

 

[fastlax16]

Depends on how you look at it. Other backs can be great in their own right but they'll always be compared to the best to ever play here (at least the guy many consider the best)

Just like Trace is doing great but there will always be comparisons to Collins...even though they're obvious very different

Collins isn’t brought up ad nauseam though.

 

[78SweetRevenge]

Collins isn’t brought up ad nauseam though.

It's also been a lot longer since he was here but, yes, true

 

[bison13]

Jon was good, but not the one I am thinking of... Jefferson?

Brian Milne?

 

[Hero17]

Yes cause:
1) a stronger, more experienced OL
2) A talented back who has something to prove

 

[LafayetteBear]

1. I will miss seeing Saquon in navy and white.
2. Saying Saquon is WAY better than Sanders is a huge understatement, and everyone understands that.
3. Sanders probably averages over 5.5 YPC or he doesn't continue playing.
4. A bright side of Saquon (and JoeMo) moving on is, I suspect, that the Lions will not continue running that RPO play where the running back gets the ball at a dead stop, five yards behind the line of scrimmage, and with defenders closing in on him. Saquon could make that play work with some frequency. No one else can.

 

[blion72]

I dont think Sanders has as many negative rushes nor as many 40+ yard rushes but I think he averages slightly more due your top two points

i am with you - Sanders probably 6.5-7 ypc due to few negative plays. We miss SB on the home run, not likely Sanders or any other RB on the team are going to deliver that. many of SB's home runs helped fend off comebacks when games got tight - like Washing in Fiesta Bowl. the more steady runs by Sanders might give us better production on the long drives and possibly we even convert 3rd and 1 better.

 

[ClarkstonMark]

Something to keep in mind wrt consistency vs explosiveness:


Last year, PSU had 161 drives (not counting kneel downs and what not)


In 72 of those drives they had at least one explosive play (20+ yards):
Of those 72 drives, they scored on 63 of them (87%)

In 89 of those drives they did not have an explosive play:
Of those 89 drives, they scored on 18 of them (20%)…..And 8 of those 19 scores came with a short field - where an explosive play may not have been possible.

(There is a reason CJF harps on "explosive plays" all the time )


I expect that the figures were similar in 2016 (but I don't have those numbers handy).



The game has changed - and Moorhead most certainly was the perfect "adapter".
Accepting a few more "minus 2" plays, in a tradeoff for more frequent explosive plays.... as opposed to trying to always make at least "plus 3", with less frequent explosive plays..... is a tradeoff any smart coach would make.
Sure - - - you'd like to have both..... chunk out 5 yards on every first down AND hit on big explosive plays.... but there isn't any world were you get to have your cake and eat it too.


Generating explosive plays with maximum frequency is the key to winning - ESPECIALLY against better defenses (which simply don't allow you many long, bit-by-bit drives).
Which is why - among other things - Michigan's "Grind it Out", power-set Offense was abysmal against better teams.

How will PSU's offense fair in 2018? We will see.

that's an awesome post right there