Penn State #9 in Coaches Poll

[Jerry]

No surprise. This is about where most of the pre-season ratings have put us.

In fact, there are no surprises anywhere in the top-10...though Michigan (#8) is a little higher than I expected.

Only one other of our opponents cracked the top-25, and that is USC (#23):

Preseason Coaches Poll​

1. Georgia (46)
2. Ohio State (7)
3. Oregon
4. Texas (1)
5. Alabama
6. Ole Miss
7. Notre Dame
8. Michigan
9. Penn State
10. Florida State
11. Missouri
12. LSU
13. Utah
14. Clemson
15. Tennessee
16. Oklahoma
17. Kansas State
18. Oklahoma State
19. Miami (FL)
20. Texas A&M
21. Arizona
22. NC State
23. USC
24. Kansas
25. Iowa

 

[LandoComando]

No surprise. This is about where most of the pre-season ratings have put us.

In fact, there are no surprises anywhere in the top-10...though Michigan (#8) is a little higher than I expected.

Only one other of our opponents cracked the top-25, and that is USC (#23):

Preseason Coaches Poll​

1. Georgia (46)
2. Ohio State (7)
3. Oregon
4. Texas (1)
5. Alabama
6. Ole Miss
7. Notre Dame
8. Michigan
9. Penn State
10. Florida State
11. Missouri
12. LSU
13. Utah
14. Clemson
15. Tennessee
16. Oklahoma
17. Kansas State
18. Oklahoma State
19. Miami (FL)
20. Texas A&M
21. Arizona
22. NC State
23. USC
24. Kansas
25. Iowa

Agreed Michigan is higher than they should be. Maybe it's just being the defending champion.

I did think Utah would be higher as well

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

No surprise. This is about where most of the pre-season ratings have put us.

In fact, there are no surprises anywhere in the top-10...though Michigan (#8) is a little higher than I expected.

Only one other of our opponents cracked the top-25, and that is USC (#23):

Preseason Coaches Poll​

1. Georgia (46)
2. Ohio State (7)
3. Oregon
4. Texas (1)
5. Alabama
6. Ole Miss
7. Notre Dame
8. Michigan
9. Penn State
10. Florida State
11. Missouri
12. LSU
13. Utah
14. Clemson
15. Tennessee
16. Oklahoma
17. Kansas State
18. Oklahoma State
19. Miami (FL)
20. Texas A&M
21. Arizona
22. NC State
23. USC
24. Kansas
25. Iowa

I fully get that these are pre-season rankings and some on this list will not be ranked at all by end of year. But many of those will be due to losses in their own conference and that will cause new teams from those conferences to take their place.

But this 12-team playoff would include 10 teams from the SEC and Big 10 if this was the final poll that mattered. How close are we to simply shutting out the other conferences and ND? I mean, for all intents and purposes, there are only 2 conferences right now in the highest division. ACC, Big 12, and PAC 12 are no longer the highest division.

 

[LandoComando]

I fully get that these are pre-season rankings and some on this list will not be ranked at all by end of year. But many of those will be due to losses in their own conference and that will cause new teams from those conferences to take their place.

But this 12-team playoff would include 10 teams from the SEC and Big 10 if this was the final poll that mattered. How close are we to simply shutting out the other conferences and ND? I mean, for all intents and purposes, there are only 2 conferences right now in the highest division. ACC, Big 12, and PAC 12 are no longer the highest division.

Truthfully the intent is to have 8 or 9 SEC/Big Ten teams. Hopefully someday soon the top level is only those conferences and everyone else has rbeir own playoff.

 

[The Spin Meister]

I fully get that these are pre-season rankings and some on this list will not be ranked at all by end of year. But many of those will be due to losses in their own conference and that will cause new teams from those conferences to take their place.

But this 12-team playoff would include 10 teams from the SEC and Big 10 if this was the final poll that mattered. How close are we to simply shutting out the other conferences and ND? I mean, for all intents and purposes, there are only 2 conferences right now in the highest division. ACC, Big 12, and PAC 12 are no longer the highest division.

Imagine the outrage if only two conferences get in.

Won’t ever happen unless each expand to 20 teams or more.

 

[doctornick]

Imagine the outrage if only two conferences get in.

Won’t ever happen unless each expand to 20 teams or more.

The top 4 spots of the CFP can only be conference champions. So, by definition at most 1 team from each of the Big Ten and SEC can be those seeds.

 

[rrdd2021]

No surprise. This is about where most of the pre-season ratings have put us.

In fact, there are no surprises anywhere in the top-10...though Michigan (#8) is a little higher than I expected.

Only one other of our opponents cracked the top-25, and that is USC (#23):

Preseason Coaches Poll​

1. Georgia (46)
2. Ohio State (7)
3. Oregon
4. Texas (1)
5. Alabama
6. Ole Miss
7. Notre Dame
8. Michigan
9. Penn State
10. Florida State
11. Missouri
12. LSU
13. Utah
14. Clemson
15. Tennessee
16. Oklahoma
17. Kansas State
18. Oklahoma State
19. Miami (FL)
20. Texas A&M
21. Arizona
22. NC State
23. USC
24. Kansas
25. Iowa

No way I'd put Michigan ahead of PSU with last year's Michigan offense getting gutted. They should have a decent defense though. Just seeing PSU as the more complete team in 2024

 

[Lion_Backer]

The top 4 spots of the CFP can only be conference champions. So, by definition at most 1 team from each of the Big Ten and SEC can be those seeds.

Can you define 'conference champion'?

Is there an actual play-in game for the #1 seed for the conference at its respective championship?

Or is there more subjectivity in that selection process too?

 

[doctornick]

Can you define 'conference champion'?

Is there an actual play-in game for the #1 seed for the conference at its respective championship?

Or is there more subjectivity in that selection process too?

The top four seeds have to be a conference champion winning their CCG. Prior to the Pac-12 collapse, it was expected that would be the four highest ranked teams in the CFP from among the Big Ten/SEC/ACC/Big 12/Pac-12. With the Pac-12 (essentially though not in name) gone, it will almost certainly be the champions of the Big Ten/SEC/Big 12/ACC. It's possible, however, for a champion of a G5 conference to take one of those spots if they are ranked higher than a champion of a Power 5 conference.

Notre Dame cannot get a bye as they cannot be a conference champ. Or any other independent team but I'm not counting on much from UMass or UConn.

 

[LemonEars]

The top four seeds have to be a conference champion winning their CCG. Prior to the Pac-12 collapse, it was expected that would be the four highest ranked teams in the CFP from among the Big Ten/SEC/ACC/Big 12/Pac-12. With the Pac-12 (essentially though not in name) gone, it will almost certainly be the champions of the Big Ten/SEC/Big 12/ACC. It's possible, however, for a champion of a G5 conference to take one of those spots if they are ranked higher than a champion of a Power 5 conference.

Notre Dame cannot get a bye as they cannot be a conference champ. Or any other independent team but I'm not counting on much from UMass or UConn.

It is pretty clear to me where this is headed. Once Clemson, Florida State, Notre Dame, and maybe Miami flee the ACC to the SEC or Big Ten then college football will clearly have a Level A and Level B. Level A will consist of the Big Ten and SEC. Level B will be everyone else. There then can be a national championship playoff via a shootout between the Big Ten and SEC while the Level B schools can have some unwatched exhibition games among themselves while they watch the big boys play for the national championship.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

It is pretty clear to me where this is headed. Once Clemson, Florida State, Notre Dame, and maybe Miami flee the ACC to the SEC or Big Ten then college football will clearly have a Level A and Level B. Level A will consist of the Big Ten and SEC. Level B will be everyone else. There then can be a national championship playoff via a shootout between the Big Ten and SEC while the Level B schools can have some unwatched exhibition games among themselves while they watch the big boys play for the national championship.

It could also cut down on the number of games played. The maximum this year will be 17. The maximum if it is SEC vs Big 10 champ for the title is 14.

 

[SheldonJoe2215]

It is pretty clear to me where this is headed. Once Clemson, Florida State, Notre Dame, and maybe Miami flee the ACC to the SEC or Big Ten then college football will clearly have a Level A and Level B. Level A will consist of the Big Ten and SEC. Level B will be everyone else. There then can be a national championship playoff via a shootout between the Big Ten and SEC while the Level B schools can have some unwatched exhibition games among themselves while they watch the big boys play for the national championship.

Except the rumors are that the SEC (at least) is aware of the pushback outside of the conference and doesn't see much value in expanding. With one or two exceptions (pretty much ND), the teams being added would be pie eaters and nobody is willing to take less revenue these days. Second, if you start shutting out other conferences from the payoff, err playoff, you increase the risk of Congress to start meddling - and you don't want that.

 

[LandoComando]

It could also cut down on the number of games played. The maximum this year will be 17. The maximum if it is SEC vs Big 10 champ for the title is 14.

Unlikely...that's still a 12 team playoff. Top 6 in each. It won't be a 2 or 4 team playoff. Conference title games probably cease to exist though.

 

[LandoComando]

Except the rumors are that the SEC (at least) is aware of the pushback outside of the conference and doesn't see much value in expanding. With one or two exceptions (pretty much ND), the teams being added would be pie eaters and nobody is willing to take less revenue these days. Second, if you start shutting out other conferences from the payoff, err playoff, you increase the risk of Congress to start meddling - and you don't want that.

If the SEC and Big Ten leave the NCAA a form a separate league, which many believe is the plan, there's nothing for Congress to involve themselves in.

There will be multiple playoffs. If anything it gives more opportunity to small programs. G5 leaders are already discussing having their own playoff.

 

[Obliviax]

B1G with four teams in the top ten. USC and Iowa between 20 and 25. So, again, according to this and our schedule, we should be favored in every game except tOSU and should have one loss at year-end. Honestly, if we are one-loss, we'll be higher then #9.

 

[bdgan]

No surprise. This is about where most of the pre-season ratings have put us.

In fact, there are no surprises anywhere in the top-10...though Michigan (#8) is a little higher than I expected.

Only one other of our opponents cracked the top-25, and that is USC (#23):

Preseason Coaches Poll​

1. Georgia (46)
2. Ohio State (7)
3. Oregon
4. Texas (1)
5. Alabama
6. Ole Miss
7. Notre Dame
8. Michigan
9. Penn State
10. Florida State
11. Missouri
12. LSU
13. Utah
14. Clemson
15. Tennessee
16. Oklahoma
17. Kansas State
18. Oklahoma State
19. Miami (FL)
20. Texas A&M
21. Arizona
22. NC State
23. USC
24. Kansas
25. Iowa

Not like it matters but I'm skeptical that 4 BiG teams will finish in the top 10. At least 1 od those 4 teams is likely to lose 3 games.

 

[bdgan]

B1G with four teams in the top ten. USC and Iowa between 20 and 25. So, again, according to this and our schedule, we should be favored in every game except tOSU and should have one loss at year-end. Honestly, if we are one-loss, we'll be higher then #9.

Agreed. 1 loss would probably have us in the top 4, at least until the conference title game.

We might have a 60% chance of beating USC, Wisconsin and a 70% chance of beating West Virginia, Washington. But the most likely outcome is NOT 4-0.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

B1G with four teams in the top ten. USC and Iowa between 20 and 25. So, again, according to this and our schedule, we should be favored in every game except tOSU and should have one loss at year-end. Honestly, if we are one-loss, we'll be higher then #9.

If you use probability to calculate the season win total, you will not get the same result as the number of games in which we are favored. In particular, we have our toughest 4 games in a row.

For example, take a season where the following win probabilities exist for the individual games (I'm just putting numbers here):
WVU 85%
Bowling Green 96%
Kent St 99%
Illinois 90%
UCLA 85%
USC 60%
Wisconsin 70%
Ohio St 40%
Washington 80%
Purdue 90%
Minnesota 90%
Maryland 85%

The win expectation should be (.75+.96+.99+...+.85) = 9.5 wins

 

[LandoComando]

If you use probability to calculate the season win total, you will not get the same result as the number of games in which we are favored. In particular, we have our toughest 4 games in a row.

For example, take a season where the following win probabilities exist for the individual games (I'm just putting numbers here):
WVU 85%
Bowling Green 96%
Kent St 99%
Illinois 90%
UCLA 85%
USC 60%
Wisconsin 70%
Ohio St 40%
Washington 80%
Purdue 90%
Minnesota 90%
Maryland 85%

The win expectation should be (.75+.96+.99+...+.85) = 9.5 wins

Those numbers are low...some very low

 

[bdgan]

Those numbers are low...some very low

Which ones?

 

[Jerry]

It is pretty clear to me where this is headed. Once Clemson, Florida State, Notre Dame, and maybe Miami flee the ACC to the SEC or Big Ten then college football will clearly have a Level A and Level B. Level A will consist of the Big Ten and SEC. Level B will be everyone else. There then can be a national championship playoff via a shootout between the Big Ten and SEC while the Level B schools can have some unwatched exhibition games among themselves while they watch the big boys play for the national championship.

So the playoff has been expanded to 12, and going in, the coaches consider 10 of the top 12 teams in the country to be SEC or Big-10. Wow.

I think our schedule sets up favorably. It's going to come down to Drew. If he plays up to his potential, we have a shot at a great season. He fell well short last year...though gosh knows it wasn't all on him.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

Those numbers are low...some very low

I just threw numbers out there but I'm open to other thoughts. What do you have game by game?

 

[LandoComando]

Also, in this scenario if we finish #9 we'd be the last team in as FSU, Utah and the G5 winner all get auto bids.

 

[wilbury]

If you use probability to calculate the season win total, you will not get the same result as the number of games in which we are favored. In particular, we have our toughest 4 games in a row.

For example, take a season where the following win probabilities exist for the individual games (I'm just putting numbers here):
WVU 85%
Bowling Green 96%
Kent St 99%
Illinois 90%
UCLA 85%
USC 60%
Wisconsin 70%
Ohio St 40%
Washington 80%
Purdue 90%
Minnesota 90%
Maryland 85%

The win expectation should be (.75+.96+.99+...+.85) = 9.5 wins

New OC, New DC, 3 new OL, no real difference maker at WR, thin at DE and LB. I'd take the under. My only hope is that the WR's we lost were actually the cancers we've been led to believe that they were, so it's addition by subtraction. It's hard to have any real confidence in any unit right now other than maybe RB and TE.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

New OC, New DC, 3 new OL, no real difference maker at WR, thin at DE and LB. I'd take the under. My only hope is that the WR's we lost were actually the cancers we've been led to believe that they were, so it's addition by subtraction. It's hard to have any real confidence in any unit right now other than maybe RB and TE.

That's pretty pessimistic.

New OC is likely a plus based on what we have seen from him. QB is no longer a 1st year starter and is likely improved and Pribula is a tough change of pace for opponents to game plan. Fleming coming in is the highest rated WR we've had in a long time and he is finally healthy. Wallace was our #2 last year until hurt and he is healthy. If those 2 remain healthy, I think the WR production will definitely increase substantially. RB is an embarrassment of riches as is TE although some are young. OL has legit 2 deep of options at every position that could be Big 10 starters, it is just a matter of finding the right 5 and getting them to mesh IMO.

The DTs are essentially 4 returning starters (2 deep very experienced) and the depth goes even beyond that. DE starters are potentially both 1st round picks and there are a couple in the 2 deep that have experience and have flashed in limited reps. King at MLB is now a 3rd year starter and looked great by the end of last year. Rojas is new but is a potential superstar that has flashed nicely in limited reps. One game last year he was in for like 6 plays and was involved in causing 3 turnovers. We have 3 very talented safeties that may all start (not sure we don't only have 2 LBs on the field and 3 safeties most of the time). There is good young depth behind them. The corners are mostly new but 2 very talented transfers and a couple of guys that were young last year but played a decent number of reps. That I think could be a weakness unless our pass rush overwhelms opponents and they have no time to attack them.

Looks like our transfer kicker is up for a preseason award and we have 2 capable guys right with him.

I think the only team with legitimately more returning talent than PSU on the schedule is Ohio St. I say 10-2 is the most likely outcome, then 11-1/9-3.

 

[The Spin Meister]

That's pretty pessimistic.

New OC is likely a plus based on what we have seen from him. QB is no longer a 1st year starter and is likely improved and Pribula is a tough change of pace for opponents to game plan. Fleming coming in is the highest rated WR we've had in a long time and he is finally healthy. Wallace was our #2 last year until hurt and he is healthy. If those 2 remain healthy, I think the WR production will definitely increase substantially. RB is an embarrassment of riches as is TE although some are young. OL has legit 2 deep of options at every position that could be Big 10 starters, it is just a matter of finding the right 5 and getting them to mesh IMO.

The DTs are essentially 4 returning starters (2 deep very experienced) and the depth goes even beyond that. DE starters are potentially both 1st round picks and there are a couple in the 2 deep that have experience and have flashed in limited reps. King at MLB is now a 3rd year starter and looked great by the end of last year. Rojas is new but is a potential superstar that has flashed nicely in limited reps. One game last year he was in for like 6 plays and was involved in causing 3 turnovers. We have 3 very talented safeties that may all start (not sure we don't only have 2 LBs on the field and 3 safeties most of the time). There is good young depth behind them. The corners are mostly new but 2 very talented transfers and a couple of guys that were young last year but played a decent number of reps. That I think could be a weakness unless our pass rush overwhelms opponents and they have no time to attack them.

Looks like our transfer kicker is up for a preseason award and we have 2 capable guys right with him.

I think the only team with legitimately more returning talent than PSU on the schedule is Ohio St. I say 10-2 is the most likely outcome, then 11-1/9-3.

You type in stuff like this and get my hopes up…..😡

 

[bdroc]

You type in stuff like this and get my hopes up…..😡

Does this get your hopes up?

QB B+
RB A
OL B
TE B+
WR B-
DL A
LB C+
DB B
K ?

 

[OKLionFan]

No way I'd put Michigan ahead of PSU with last year's Michigan offense getting gutted. They should have a decent defense though. Just seeing PSU as the more complete team in 2024

That will get fixed week one when they lose to Texas.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

You type in stuff like this and get my hopes up…..😡

My apologies. I'm still going with 10-2. Although I think 11-1 is a real possibility. 12-0 if EVERYTHING falls our way.

 

[wilbury]

That's pretty pessimistic.

New OC is likely a plus based on what we have seen from him. QB is no longer a 1st year starter and is likely improved and Pribula is a tough change of pace for opponents to game plan. Fleming coming in is the highest rated WR we've had in a long time and he is finally healthy. Wallace was our #2 last year until hurt and he is healthy. If those 2 remain healthy, I think the WR production will definitely increase substantially. RB is an embarrassment of riches as is TE although some are young. OL has legit 2 deep of options at every position that could be Big 10 starters, it is just a matter of finding the right 5 and getting them to mesh IMO.

The DTs are essentially 4 returning starters (2 deep very experienced) and the depth goes even beyond that. DE starters are potentially both 1st round picks and there are a couple in the 2 deep that have experience and have flashed in limited reps. King at MLB is now a 3rd year starter and looked great by the end of last year. Rojas is new but is a potential superstar that has flashed nicely in limited reps. One game last year he was in for like 6 plays and was involved in causing 3 turnovers. We have 3 very talented safeties that may all start (not sure we don't only have 2 LBs on the field and 3 safeties most of the time). There is good young depth behind them. The corners are mostly new but 2 very talented transfers and a couple of guys that were young last year but played a decent number of reps. That I think could be a weakness unless our pass rush overwhelms opponents and they have no time to attack them.

Looks like our transfer kicker is up for a preseason award and we have 2 capable guys right with him.

I think the only team with legitimately more returning talent than PSU on the schedule is Ohio St. I say 10-2 is the most likely outcome, then 11-1/9-3.

Even if the OC is better, it's still a new system. We don't have a legit deep threat. A good team would have at least 2.

Fortunately, the only teams we play with a heartbeat are WV, OSU and Wisky so being 9-3 would be dissapointing.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

Even if the OC is better, it's still a new system. We don't have a legit deep threat. A good team would have at least 2.

Fortunately, the only teams we play with a heartbeat are WV, OSU and Wisky so being 9-3 would be dissapointing.

There are apparent weaknesses heading into the season and maybe we get a guy or 2 to step up. I would say that USC is almost universally ranked in preseason, I've seen as high as 14, I think. They are 2nd toughest game on the schedule and on the road.

 

[LandoComando]

Even if the OC is better, it's still a new system. We don't have a legit deep threat. A good team would have at least 2.

Fortunately, the only teams we play with a heartbeat are WV, OSU and Wisky so being 9-3 would be dissapointing.

Toughest games are
Ohio State
at USC
at Wisconsin
then maybe Washington
but yes 3 losses is basically a disaster

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

Toughest games are
Ohio State
at USC
at Wisconsin
then maybe Washington
but yes 3 losses is basically a disaster

Fanduel and Vegasinsider both have our season total wins at 9.5. 3 losses is barely the under. I'd be disappointed but it's not a disaster. It's just slightly below expectations just as 10 wins is slightly above expectations. I think 10-2 is most probable and 11-1 is next likely. But I don't make odds for a living.

 

[LandoComando]

Fanduel and Vegasinsider both have our season total wins at 9.5. 3 losses is barely the under. I'd be disappointed but it's not a disaster. It's just slightly below expectations just as 10 wins is slightly above expectations. I think 10-2 is most probable and 11-1 is next likely. But I don't make odds for a living.

Anything short of the playoff this year is a disaster with this schedule. They could lose 3 but that would, as I said, be a disaster.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

Anything short of the playoff this year is a disaster with this schedule. They could lose 3 but that would, as I said, be a disaster.

Again, those that make sports betting odds for a living are in disagreement with you. But you do you.

 

[LandoComando]

Again, those that make sports betting odds for a living are in disagreement with you. But you do you.

Betting lines are set to split money...nothing else

 

[knickslions]

Penn State has 6th best odds at -145 to make playoffs. No way do they think it’s a 3 loss team.

 

[LandoComando]

Penn State has 6th best odds at -145 to make playoffs. No way do they think it’s a 3 loss team.

Correct. We're projected to be a playoff team and don't have Michigan and Oregon on the schedule. Many nationally already see Franklin as the coach that can't win the big game. Failure fo make the playoff this year would be really really bad.

For the record, I think 10-2 is our floor this year and think we could easily win 11 but this team has to make the playoff

 

[rrdd2021]

Level A will consist of the Big Ten and SEC. Level B will be everyone else.

Yep, agree, it's getting to be pretty obvious this is where it's headed