Football Penn State opens as favorites versus Michigan
- Thread starter Richie O
- Start date
Circa opened with Penn State favored by 1.5, and it's now at 2...so some early money coming in on the Lions.
Meanwhile, DraftKings has it a pick.
Wow.
Clearly I'm missing something. I can only hope the wise guys have it right.
Meanwhile, DraftKings has it a pick.
Wow.
Clearly I'm missing something. I can only hope the wise guys have it right.
I mean once you account for HFA, that basically means that Michigan is favored on a neutral field
I don't feel great about Michigan, but I think we will be Michigan State. They're horrible against the pass, but great against the run. We have no run game, but we can pass... Similar to Purdue, who just beat them.
I predict we finish this season 8-4. We beat Rutgers and split the Michigan games, one way or the other
I predict we finish this season 8-4. We beat Rutgers and split the Michigan games, one way or the other
Can someone break this down from a matchup standpoint? I don't see how we're not getting ~6 points, but I dare not bet against Jahan and Brisker.
Michigan is solid on D though they broke down a bit on that side of the ball against Michigan State. Excellent running game. Biggest question mark is possible injuries to some key players on offense, to include the QB, but Harbaugh has been vague on the subject.
You get into November in the Big 10, the teams that can move the ball on the ground have a big advantage. One thing for sure: this game is huge for Michigan...and for Harbaugh.
I thought that Michigan would be favored by something in the range of 4 points. But home-field is a major advantage so there's that...and it could be the question marks surrounding Michigan injuries are figuring into the betting line.
Our D has held up in every game, so the question comes down to the O. Really need a good game from Sean...unless some miracle happens and the running game suddenly comes alive too.
Agreed...and I still look at UM and MSU's records and don't see any quality wins. Wisconsin hit the skids after we beat them (as did we after losing to Iowa) and is now recovering. I am not saying we are going to win but those two programs have had easier schedules than cincy so far.
You keep saying this same bullshit, but there is zero empirical evidence to support your contention that offenses that generate the majority of their Total Offense in rushing yards have a huge advantage. MSU has one of the best Rushing Attacks in the b1g and was utterly dominated "in November" by Purdue who hung 600 yards of offense on MSU's Defense with only 50 yards coming on the ground (with a terrible ypc rush avg). Purdue never trailed, led 37-21 with only 9 minutes remaining (i.e., had already won game before 4th quarter was even half over) and ended up winning 40 29. So much for #3 ranked MSU having this huge advantage over unranked (at the time) Purdue because they had one of the best rushing attack in b1g.
Our D will play solidly. I think one storyline will be if we can hold them to FGs in the red zone. That can save us 4, 8 maybe 12 points. Even just one stop to hold them to 3 will be big. Their placekicker is money so he probably won't miss. I hope it doesn't come down to them needing a game winning kick, they probably make it.
A huge factor is how Clifford plays and how well our offense is clicking. Are we able to keep them off balance? Can Clifford run, any designed runs for him that pick up critical yards? Up tempo, TEs, get Dotson loose? Unfortunately I don't see us having any success running the ball.
We will need to score a minimum of 17 to have a shot and I think we may need 21-24. If we get 24 I think we win. Let's say scUM has 4 trips in the red zone and gets two TDs and 2 FGs that is 20. If we put up more than 20 then we have a good shot. This of course does not factor in turnovers which will dramatically affect a game like this.
Dude, it's not necessary to turn every imagined disagreement into a pissing contest. Gosh, you must be a friggin' joy to live with. But I cut you slack because you hate the Big 10 as much as I do.
Anyway, I'm not sure what I "keep saying" as I think this is the first time I've broached the subject. But it's a simple and uncontroversial concept. The Big-10 is a physical league. It has historically placed major emphasis on the running game. When you get into November, when teams are worn down and the weather turns colder, it's an advantage to have a strong running game. Duh.
Does this mean that you can't win without one? No. Does this mean that some teams are not exceptions to the rule? No. Does this mean that some games are not exceptions to the rule? No. Plus the way the game is played today, the old rules don't apply quite so consistently even in the Big-10.
In any case, I don't care about friggin' Purdue last week. I'm focused on Michigan this week. And the fact is, Michigan has a strong running game. It's ranked 7th in the country. Their starting RB is apparently dinged up, and that could be a factor. Still, if all things are equal, Michigan will have an advantage in that department which could end up being important. (I said "could.")
So does this necessarily mean Michigan will win? No. Does it mean Penn State's D won't be able to negate the Wolverine running game? No. It just means that going into the game, Michigan's ability this year to run the ball versus Penn State's inability this year to do the same is a plus for them and a minus for us on Saturday. Just my opinion. If it's OK with you. And even if it isn't.
As I said elsewhere, Michigan’s running offense isn’t as good as OSU’s. Michigan had 140 yards rushing against MSU with 23 yards on scrambles by McNamara. They had 114 yards rushing against Wisconsin. Both of those games suggest to me that Michigan’s vaunted runnng game has been mediocre or worse against good defenses.
Fair point.
Still, they are ranked 7th in the country and 1st in the conference in rushing offense. And keep in mind what Illinois did to us on the ground without Mustipher. (Plus I wonder about Luketa this week.)
All that said, the health of their starting RB is apparently in question. He left the Indiana game early, and Harbaugh has been vague about the guy's status...or that of his starting QB for that matter.
If their guys are healthy, we'll have our hands full. Honestly, I hope we don't waste time trying to establish the running game. Would like to see Sean come out slinging the ball. If he hits a few passes, things may loosen up a bit for our RB's.
Dude, it's not what you say. It's how you say it. Zip up your pants lest you be embarrassed further. For real.
You're so full of crap - you keep repeating your opinion as if it is fact... and it's utter tripe. You are rating "best running game" by average "Yards Per Game" - which is heavily influenced by the number of times you run the ball (i.e., % of time you run the ball), not "Yards Per Carry", which is an absolute measure not impacted by simply running the ball more.
MeatChicken runs the ball 62% of the time (an average of 44 rushing attempts per game - MeatChicken averages 71 plays per game). Just like MeatChicken, the top 6 teams in "Rushing Yards Per Game" (i.e., the teams in front of Michigan) run the ball on the vast majority of their plays. Specifically, the top 6 teams in Rushing YPG in front of MeatChicken are AFA (302), Army (286), SorryExcuse (247), Arkansas (248), 'Ole Miss (238) and Kent State (236). Contrary to your incessant claims none of these teams who rack up lots of rushing yards by running the ball the vast majority of their total plays gives them any "special advantage".... and makes them "elite" - there are no currently ranked top 10 teams in the top 25 of this statistic other than MeatChicken. In fact, 20 of the top 25 teams in "Rushing Yards Per Game" aren't ranked at all.
Big scary top 10 ranked Michigan opened as an underdog and is still only a 1 pt favorite to an unranked team. Sure says a lot for them.
Bookmaker power ratings do not look at the polls at all. I keep power ratings and I admit that I have no idea what the polls look like and I don't care. I don't even have Mich St in my top 25 (a disparity that I enjoyed when my Purdue bet cashed this weekend).
FWIW, I have PSU as -1 at home vs UM. The advanced stats seems to give UM more of an edge, so the move to +1 makes sense.
The most correlated stat to winning imho is your differential between average YPP on Offense and average YPP given up on defense (i.e., Offensive YPP - Deffensive YPP Surrendered). However, the schedule these stats were built against must be considered for CFB. Most P5 teams play similar SOS so their numbers are very comparable (intra-conference teams even moreso). For example, UGa averages 6.9 YPP on Offense and surrenders only 3.8 YPP on Defense (Defensive YPP is #1 in nation) and has a nation leading +3.1 YPP Differential. Bama is +2.8 YPP Differential (6.6 Offense and 4.8 Defense). Best in b1g, I believe, is duhO$U, +2.0 YPP Differential (6.9 Offense [#2 in the nation] and 4.9 on Defense). MeatChicken does have a slight advantage in this stat at +1.6 YPP Differential versus PSU's +1.
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Too funny, please entertain us all some more how AFA, Army, SorryExcuse, 'Ole Miss, Arkansas and Kent are incredibly awesome teams because they are the 6 teams who average more Rushing Yards Per Game than MeatChicken.... blah, blah, blah. Talk about needing medication.....
Then man the F up and go bet Michigan now. You could always hedge out and bet PSU later at +4 for a middle opportunity if you are that confident.
Actually I took the under. Penn State isn't scoring jack with that offensive line mess against 97 and company from Michigan
Fat finger error..... fixed it (i.e., duhO$U +2.0, not +3.0)....
Bushie, even by message-board standards, your penchant for completely missing the point is exceptional.
Sure. Still doesn't bode well for #6 team. Playing an unranked.
What was OSU favored by? 19 I think.
Probably not. It's settled in the range of 1.5-2 in favor of Michigan. Granted, that's around a 3-point movement in favor of the Wolverines since the line opened.
So the money since Sunday has come in pretty steadily on Michigan. But that doesn't really prove anything.
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