Football Penn State vs West Virginia: Nittany Lions enter game week as big favorites

[Dylan Callaghan-Croley]

Game week is officially here for Penn State and the Nittany Lions are entering the week as huge favorites over the West Virginia Mountaineers.

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As of Sunday morning, the Nittany Lions are a consensus 20.5 point favorite over the Mountaineers, up four points from the opening line of 16.5 points back in May. The over-under for the contest is currently at 52.5 points, a slight drop from its opening of 56.5 points. Penn State is also an overwhelming -1400 on the money line.

Last season, Penn State was 9-3-1 against the spread, the best record ATS in the entirety of the Big Ten. That being said, when favored by more than 14 points last season, the Nittany Lions were just 2-2-1, covering an 18.5 point spread against Rutgers and a 28-point spread against Ohio.

West Virginia was 6-6 against the spread last season but was never more than an 8.5-point underdog throughout the year. As an underdog overall, they were 4-5 against the spread and 3-6 straight up.

West Virginia enters 2023 looking to secure a winning season after going 5-7 last year under head coach Neal Brown. The former Troy head coach is in his fifth year with the program, collecting a 22-25 record through his first four seasons.
The Nittany Lions are coming off their fourth 11th win season under head coach James Franklin and a Rose Bowl victory over Utah. They also finished top-10 in the AP Poll for the fourth time since 2016.

 

[PSUMATT85]

Game week is officially here for Penn State and the Nittany Lions are entering the week as huge favorites over the West Virginia Mountaineers.

Not a Happy Valley Insider subscriber? Join today for access to all our premium content and message board community. Already INSIDE? Join the conversation on THE LIONS DEN FORUM!

As of Sunday morning, the Nittany Lions are a consensus 20.5 point favorite over the Mountaineers, up four points from the opening line of 16.5 points back in May. The over-under for the contest is currently at 52.5 points, a slight drop from its opening of 56.5 points. Penn State is also an overwhelming -1400 on the money line.

Last season, Penn State was 9-3-1 against the spread, the best record ATS in the entirety of the Big Ten. That being said, when favored by more than 14 points last season, the Nittany Lions were just 2-5, covering an 18.5 point spread against Rutgers and a 28-point spread against Ohio.
West Virginia was 6-6 against the spread last season but was never more than an 8.5-point underdog throughout the year. As an underdog overall, they were 4-5 against the spread and 3-6 straight up.

West Virginia enters 2023 looking to secure a winning season after going 5-7 last year under head coach Neal Brown. The former Troy head coach is in his fifth year with the program, collecting a 22-25 record through his first four seasons.
The Nittany Lions are coming off their fourth 11th win season under head coach James Franklin and a Rose Bowl victory over Utah. They also finished top-10 in the AP Poll for the fourth time since 2016.

How could Penn state be 9-3-1 against the spread, but 2-5 against the spread when favored by 14 or more? Big ten ref math?

 

[Obliviax]

Game week is officially here for Penn State and the Nittany Lions are entering the week as huge favorites over the West Virginia Mountaineers.

Not a Happy Valley Insider subscriber? Join today for access to all our premium content and message board community. Already INSIDE? Join the conversation on THE LIONS DEN FORUM!

As of Sunday morning, the Nittany Lions are a consensus 20.5 point favorite over the Mountaineers, up four points from the opening line of 16.5 points back in May. The over-under for the contest is currently at 52.5 points, a slight drop from its opening of 56.5 points. Penn State is also an overwhelming -1400 on the money line.

Last season, Penn State was 9-3-1 against the spread, the best record ATS in the entirety of the Big Ten. That being said, when favored by more than 14 points last season, the Nittany Lions were just 2-5, covering an 18.5 point spread against Rutgers and a 28-point spread against Ohio.
West Virginia was 6-6 against the spread last season but was never more than an 8.5-point underdog throughout the year. As an underdog overall, they were 4-5 against the spread and 3-6 straight up.

West Virginia enters 2023 looking to secure a winning season after going 5-7 last year under head coach Neal Brown. The former Troy head coach is in his fifth year with the program, collecting a 22-25 record through his first four seasons.
The Nittany Lions are coming off their fourth 11th win season under head coach James Franklin and a Rose Bowl victory over Utah. They also finished top-10 in the AP Poll for the fourth time since 2016.

WVU is a good bad team. Last season, they lost several close games to good/decent schools. They beat VT, Baylor. Oklahoma and Okie state. They also lost close games to Pitt (bad coaching blew that game IMHO) and eventual national champion runners-up TCU. They got beat handily by TX Tech, Iowa State, and K State.

I really expect a much closer game than the 20.5 point spread. WVU will come in feeling disrespected and the coaching staff is coaching with their careers on the line this year. They have a good OL with a good running game. I am not sure about their QB but word is the starter will also be a good runner. I think they'll move the ball against us. On the other hand, their defensive secondary is very suspect. (or "sus" as the kids say) With our OL and great RBs, any team is susceptible to our ground game. I expect them to try and stop the run and hope that "Air Allar" isn't up to speed. If they can get us to 3rd and long, I expect them to blitz like crazy and see if young Mr. Allar has pocket presence, can ignore the pressure, and/or run when flushed.

Of course, early games often come with mistakes so PSU needs to hold onto the ball and limit penalties. The weather is supposed to be good so fumbles shouldn't be as prevalent. A big question for me is our kicking game (FGs and Extra Points). We should have considerably more talent on special teams with our recruiting depth from the last several years on returns and coverages.

I suspect WVU will hold their own early but we'll wear them down in the 3rd quarter. If we can get a lead, they'll have to throw and that isn't their strong suit. I can see our secondary have a few picks.