What is Penn State's No. 1 key for success on offense in tomorrow's regular season finale against Michigan State?
Many Penn State fans will tell you it's protecting Christian Hackenberg. The Nittany Lions's offensive line has given up 37 sacks in 11 games this season. Other Penn State fans will tell you it's getting freshman RB Saquon Barkley involved in the offense. The Nittany Lions' offense has been at its best when Barkley's been able to run for 100-plus yards in a game. Then there are those Penn State fans that will firmly advocate it's Penn State's horrific third down conversion rate that needs to be corrected.
A consensus of opinion seems to indicate it's Penn State's power five conference worst third down conversion percentage. I'm not sure I agree.
Coming out of Saturday's 28-16 loss to Michigan, the Lions' offense has converted on just 28-percent of its third down opportunities. That ranks Penn State 126th in the country. It is a conversion percentage that has doomed Penn State's offense in its four losses this season, which saw the Lions convert on just 18-percent [10 of 55] of their third down conversion opportunities. You can't win games with that type of offensive statistic.
Why has it happened? All you have to do is look at Penn State's failed 11 third-down opportunities against Michigan and examine what happened on first down and you'll have your answer. Penn State's yards per play production average on first-down on the 11 failed third-down conversions against Michigan was .9 yards per play.
On the Nittany Lions' first failed third down opportunity of the game (third-and-9), Barkley rushed for a yard on first down. On it's second failed third-down opportunity (third-and-8), Hackenberg threw an incomplete pass on first down. On it's fourth failed third-down opportunity (third-and-19), Hackenberg was sacked for a 10-yard loss on first down. That same third-and-19 situation was repeated on Penn State's eighth failed third-down opportunity when on first down, Hackenberg in this instance also threw an incomplete pass.
Sacks helped put the Nittany Lions in impossible third-and-long situations throughout the afternoon.
In fact, in all 11 of Penn State's failed third down chances against Michigan, Penn State's offense gained at least four yards on first down just two times. There is no way any offense at any level of football can expect its offense to be successful on third-down with that lack of success on first down.
It is one of the most fundamental rules of football on offense. As long as Penn State's offense continues to struggle similarly on first down, don't expect it to improve its miserable third down conversion rate. Against quality defenses like Temple, Ohio State, Northwestern, Michigan, and Michigan State, PSU's offense will continue to average 14 points per game.
It's why I believe Penn State's No.1 key for success on offense against Michigan State is its ability to place its offense in workable down and distance situations on second and third down. That means having better success on first down then it did in its game against the Wolverines. But one has to wonder if anything will change for Penn State's offense this coming Saturday against Michigan State and its defense, which held Ohio State's Big Ten-leading offense to 132 yards of total offense in its, 17-14, upset win at the Horseshoe this past Saturday.
Let's talk about it here in the Lions Den.
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Many Penn State fans will tell you it's protecting Christian Hackenberg. The Nittany Lions's offensive line has given up 37 sacks in 11 games this season. Other Penn State fans will tell you it's getting freshman RB Saquon Barkley involved in the offense. The Nittany Lions' offense has been at its best when Barkley's been able to run for 100-plus yards in a game. Then there are those Penn State fans that will firmly advocate it's Penn State's horrific third down conversion rate that needs to be corrected.
A consensus of opinion seems to indicate it's Penn State's power five conference worst third down conversion percentage. I'm not sure I agree.
Coming out of Saturday's 28-16 loss to Michigan, the Lions' offense has converted on just 28-percent of its third down opportunities. That ranks Penn State 126th in the country. It is a conversion percentage that has doomed Penn State's offense in its four losses this season, which saw the Lions convert on just 18-percent [10 of 55] of their third down conversion opportunities. You can't win games with that type of offensive statistic.
Why has it happened? All you have to do is look at Penn State's failed 11 third-down opportunities against Michigan and examine what happened on first down and you'll have your answer. Penn State's yards per play production average on first-down on the 11 failed third-down conversions against Michigan was .9 yards per play.
On the Nittany Lions' first failed third down opportunity of the game (third-and-9), Barkley rushed for a yard on first down. On it's second failed third-down opportunity (third-and-8), Hackenberg threw an incomplete pass on first down. On it's fourth failed third-down opportunity (third-and-19), Hackenberg was sacked for a 10-yard loss on first down. That same third-and-19 situation was repeated on Penn State's eighth failed third-down opportunity when on first down, Hackenberg in this instance also threw an incomplete pass.
Sacks helped put the Nittany Lions in impossible third-and-long situations throughout the afternoon.
In fact, in all 11 of Penn State's failed third down chances against Michigan, Penn State's offense gained at least four yards on first down just two times. There is no way any offense at any level of football can expect its offense to be successful on third-down with that lack of success on first down.
It is one of the most fundamental rules of football on offense. As long as Penn State's offense continues to struggle similarly on first down, don't expect it to improve its miserable third down conversion rate. Against quality defenses like Temple, Ohio State, Northwestern, Michigan, and Michigan State, PSU's offense will continue to average 14 points per game.
It's why I believe Penn State's No.1 key for success on offense against Michigan State is its ability to place its offense in workable down and distance situations on second and third down. That means having better success on first down then it did in its game against the Wolverines. But one has to wonder if anything will change for Penn State's offense this coming Saturday against Michigan State and its defense, which held Ohio State's Big Ten-leading offense to 132 yards of total offense in its, 17-14, upset win at the Horseshoe this past Saturday.
Let's talk about it here in the Lions Den.
© Yahoo! Inc.
