Here our my "keys" to victory for Penn State's offense and defense going into Saturday's game against Minnesota. We'll begin our discussion with Penn State's defense.
Normally, when I'm trying to evaluate matchups in a football game, one of the last things I look at is the weather conditions. But that certainly isn't the case with Penn State's game against Minnesota at Beaver Stadium on Saturday.
Between now and Saturday evening the National Weather Service is projecting a possibility of three to five inches of rain in the State College area between today [Thursday, Sept. 29] and the game on Saturday. There is a 100-percent chance of rain today [Thursday], 60-percent chance of rain Friday and an 80-percent chance of thundershowers Saturday in the morning and afternoon.
If that indeed does take place it will provide Minnesota's offensive line, which averages 6-5, 322 per man, with a decided advantage at the point of attack at the line of scrimmage against an inexperienced front seven on defense for Penn State. Minnesota will enter Saturday's game against Penn State with the 5th best rushing attack in the Big Ten averaging 223.3 YPG and 5.0 YPC.
In Rs. So. Rodney Smith [5-11, 205], So. Shannon Brooks [6-0, 210] and JUCO transfer RB Kobe McCrary [6-1, 235], Minnesota has what many analysts believe is the best group of running backs in the West Division of the Big Ten. It was the reason some picked Minnesota to dethrone Iowa as the West Division champions of the Big Ten and make it to the Big Ten Championship Game.
Smith and Brooks are big enough to run between the tackles as well as get outside the tackle box with their speed. McCrary is a 6-1, 235 power-back that runs between the tackles. McCrary leads the team averaging 8.4 YPC and had a field day running behind Minnesota's huge offensive line against FCS lightweight Indiana State in Minnesota's second game of the season. Smith is the Golden Gophers' starter at tailback with Brooks almost getting equal reps with Smith. When Brooks missed the opening two games of the season against Oregon State and Indiana State, McCrary fit perfectly into the Golden Gophers power rushing attack.
You also can't forget about Sr. QB Mitch Leidner [6-4, 230] in Minnesota's rushing attack. Leidner is the Golden Gophers' all-time leader in rushing TDs with 25 rushing TDs during his Minnesota career. He loves to run the football in the Red Zone. So far this season Leidner has rushed for 147 yards on 26 carries averaging 5.2 YPC.
The Golden Gophers huge offensive line is led by Sr. RT Jonah Pirsig [6-9, 325] and two former JUCO AA OL in Rs.Jr. LT Garrison Wright [6-4, 320] and Jr. RG Vincent Calhoun [6-4, 330].
There is no question that if Penn State's defense hopes to slow down Minnesota's inside power running game, Coach Pry will have to make the decision to load the box with eight defenders, especially on first down to try to put the Golden Gophers in second and third and long situations forcing them to throw the football. So far in its first three games this season, Minnesota has converted on 56-percent of its third down opportunities on offense. That is because close to 75-percent of the time Minnesota has faced third and less than four yards on its third down.
Leidner has brought some balance to Minnesota's offense completing 64.4 percent of his passes for 599 yards averaging 199.7 YPG with four TD passes an just one interception. But Minnesota's pass offense is fully dependent on the Golden Gophers establishing its power running game. It is a play-action passing attack.
If Penn State's defense, which ranks last in the Big Ten allowing 213.8 YPG and 4.9 YPC, can control Minnesota's to some extent, Penn State should be able to shutdown the Golden Gophers' pass offense. Minnesota's leading receiver is Sr. WR Drew Wolitarsky [6-3, 220]. He has 17 catches for 252 yards [14.8 YPC] average. If Penn State can shutdown Wolitarsky, it will make Minnesota's pass offense run on less than four cylinders.
Minnesota's second leading receiver is Fr. Tyler Johnson [6-2, 180] with eight catches for 61 yards [7.5 YPC]. Penn State also has to be aware of Rs.Jr. TE Nick Wozniak [6-10, 275]. He's an outstanding blocker, but he does have six catches for 81 yards [13.5 YPC].
On offense Penn State must have as always a balanced offensive attack. They must find a way to get the ball into Saquon Barkley's hands between 25 to 30 times against the Golden Gophers. But early in the game if weather conditions allow it, Penn State must set up the run with its passing attack like it tried to do in the first quarter against Pitt before penalties and bad snaps derailed the Nittany Lions' offense on its opening drive of the game.
Minnesota ranks 13th in the Big Ten in pass defense allowing 228.7 YPG and 11.1 YPC. Minnesota's first three opponents have completed 57.4 percent of their pass attempts. It will be interesting to see if Minnesota thinks it can play press man-to-man defense against Penn State's talented group of WRs.
If they do, Trace McSorley and Penn State's receivers must make Minnesota's defense pay a steep price for doing that by putting the ball in the end zone in the first quarter of the game. In this game Penn State's offense has to put points on the scoreboard early and get an early lead to force Minnesota out of its ball control style of offense.
If Penn State can have success early in the game throwing the football, it will force Minnesota's defense to play honest with its alignments and not put more than six defenders in the box. That would then almost assure Barkley having success running with the football, allowing him with an excellent chance to have a 100-yard-plus rushing performance.
I believe Penn State has an excellent chance to win this game. But to do that Penn State's offense has to score 30-plus points in this game because on defense I believe the Nittany Lions will have a difficult time controlling Minnesota's power running game.
This is a must win situation for Penn State's coaching staff and its players. I almost picked Minnesota to win, but that turned out to not be the case. If the weather allows it, I think McSorley throws for 250-plus yards and Barkley runs for close to 150 yards. Penn State wins 38-30.
Normally, when I'm trying to evaluate matchups in a football game, one of the last things I look at is the weather conditions. But that certainly isn't the case with Penn State's game against Minnesota at Beaver Stadium on Saturday.
Between now and Saturday evening the National Weather Service is projecting a possibility of three to five inches of rain in the State College area between today [Thursday, Sept. 29] and the game on Saturday. There is a 100-percent chance of rain today [Thursday], 60-percent chance of rain Friday and an 80-percent chance of thundershowers Saturday in the morning and afternoon.
If that indeed does take place it will provide Minnesota's offensive line, which averages 6-5, 322 per man, with a decided advantage at the point of attack at the line of scrimmage against an inexperienced front seven on defense for Penn State. Minnesota will enter Saturday's game against Penn State with the 5th best rushing attack in the Big Ten averaging 223.3 YPG and 5.0 YPC.
In Rs. So. Rodney Smith [5-11, 205], So. Shannon Brooks [6-0, 210] and JUCO transfer RB Kobe McCrary [6-1, 235], Minnesota has what many analysts believe is the best group of running backs in the West Division of the Big Ten. It was the reason some picked Minnesota to dethrone Iowa as the West Division champions of the Big Ten and make it to the Big Ten Championship Game.
Smith and Brooks are big enough to run between the tackles as well as get outside the tackle box with their speed. McCrary is a 6-1, 235 power-back that runs between the tackles. McCrary leads the team averaging 8.4 YPC and had a field day running behind Minnesota's huge offensive line against FCS lightweight Indiana State in Minnesota's second game of the season. Smith is the Golden Gophers' starter at tailback with Brooks almost getting equal reps with Smith. When Brooks missed the opening two games of the season against Oregon State and Indiana State, McCrary fit perfectly into the Golden Gophers power rushing attack.
You also can't forget about Sr. QB Mitch Leidner [6-4, 230] in Minnesota's rushing attack. Leidner is the Golden Gophers' all-time leader in rushing TDs with 25 rushing TDs during his Minnesota career. He loves to run the football in the Red Zone. So far this season Leidner has rushed for 147 yards on 26 carries averaging 5.2 YPC.
The Golden Gophers huge offensive line is led by Sr. RT Jonah Pirsig [6-9, 325] and two former JUCO AA OL in Rs.Jr. LT Garrison Wright [6-4, 320] and Jr. RG Vincent Calhoun [6-4, 330].
There is no question that if Penn State's defense hopes to slow down Minnesota's inside power running game, Coach Pry will have to make the decision to load the box with eight defenders, especially on first down to try to put the Golden Gophers in second and third and long situations forcing them to throw the football. So far in its first three games this season, Minnesota has converted on 56-percent of its third down opportunities on offense. That is because close to 75-percent of the time Minnesota has faced third and less than four yards on its third down.
Leidner has brought some balance to Minnesota's offense completing 64.4 percent of his passes for 599 yards averaging 199.7 YPG with four TD passes an just one interception. But Minnesota's pass offense is fully dependent on the Golden Gophers establishing its power running game. It is a play-action passing attack.
If Penn State's defense, which ranks last in the Big Ten allowing 213.8 YPG and 4.9 YPC, can control Minnesota's to some extent, Penn State should be able to shutdown the Golden Gophers' pass offense. Minnesota's leading receiver is Sr. WR Drew Wolitarsky [6-3, 220]. He has 17 catches for 252 yards [14.8 YPC] average. If Penn State can shutdown Wolitarsky, it will make Minnesota's pass offense run on less than four cylinders.
Minnesota's second leading receiver is Fr. Tyler Johnson [6-2, 180] with eight catches for 61 yards [7.5 YPC]. Penn State also has to be aware of Rs.Jr. TE Nick Wozniak [6-10, 275]. He's an outstanding blocker, but he does have six catches for 81 yards [13.5 YPC].
On offense Penn State must have as always a balanced offensive attack. They must find a way to get the ball into Saquon Barkley's hands between 25 to 30 times against the Golden Gophers. But early in the game if weather conditions allow it, Penn State must set up the run with its passing attack like it tried to do in the first quarter against Pitt before penalties and bad snaps derailed the Nittany Lions' offense on its opening drive of the game.
Minnesota ranks 13th in the Big Ten in pass defense allowing 228.7 YPG and 11.1 YPC. Minnesota's first three opponents have completed 57.4 percent of their pass attempts. It will be interesting to see if Minnesota thinks it can play press man-to-man defense against Penn State's talented group of WRs.
If they do, Trace McSorley and Penn State's receivers must make Minnesota's defense pay a steep price for doing that by putting the ball in the end zone in the first quarter of the game. In this game Penn State's offense has to put points on the scoreboard early and get an early lead to force Minnesota out of its ball control style of offense.
If Penn State can have success early in the game throwing the football, it will force Minnesota's defense to play honest with its alignments and not put more than six defenders in the box. That would then almost assure Barkley having success running with the football, allowing him with an excellent chance to have a 100-yard-plus rushing performance.
I believe Penn State has an excellent chance to win this game. But to do that Penn State's offense has to score 30-plus points in this game because on defense I believe the Nittany Lions will have a difficult time controlling Minnesota's power running game.
This is a must win situation for Penn State's coaching staff and its players. I almost picked Minnesota to win, but that turned out to not be the case. If the weather allows it, I think McSorley throws for 250-plus yards and Barkley runs for close to 150 yards. Penn State wins 38-30.
