POLL: Predicting the PSU-Iowa 2019-20 Dual - PART III

[slushhead]

BWI Installment #3 for the DUAL MEET as we build up (down?) to the date . . .

Part I (10/28) had PSU winning with 87% of the vote (n = 133). The most common margin of victory was 5-9 pts.

Part II (12/29) had PSU winning with 58% of the vote (n = 26). The most common margin of victory was 1-4 pts.

Sample size, votes, and Cassar getting injured indicated sentiment was declining in late December. What say you now?

 

[nitlion6]

125 Iowa 6 Penn State 0
133 Iowa 6 Penn State 3
141 Iowa 6 Penn State 7
149 Iowa 9 Penn State 7
157 Iowa 14 Penn State 7
165 Iowa 14 Penn State 10
174 Iowa 14 Penn State 13
184 Iowa 14 Penn State 16
197 Iowa 17 Penn State 16
Hwt Iowa 17 Penn State 19

 

[Ski]

125 Iowa 6 Penn State 0
133 Iowa 6 Penn State 3
141 Iowa 6 Penn State 7
149 Iowa 9 Penn State 7
157 Iowa 14 Penn State 7
165 Iowa 14 Penn State 10
174 Iowa 14 Penn State 13
184 Iowa 14 Penn State 16
197 Iowa 17 Penn State 16
Hwt Iowa 17 Penn State 19

That would be the roadmap, but I don’t see us winning 133 until it actually happens. But, throw in Berge at 157 and that 5 becomes no worse than a 3 and Berge could actually win it. PSU can win a close match or get blown out. At this point, I just want to see a healthy Berge and Rasheed. The dual win would be gravy, but I am more concerned about March and we aren’t ready yet.

 

[nitlion6]

That would be the roadmap, but I don’t see us winning 133 until it actually happens. But, throw in Berge at 157 and that 5 becomes no worse than a 3 and Berge could actually win it. PSU can win a close match or get blown out. At this point, I just want to see a healthy Berge and Rasheed. The dual win would be gravy, but I am more concerned about March and we aren’t ready yet.

Berge is wishful thinking.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Lee Tech 5-nil
Desanto D 8-nil
Lee D 8-3
Lugo D 11-3
Young D 14-3
Cenzo D 14-6
Mark D 14-9
Brooks D 14-12
Shak D 14-15
Cass D 17-15

But if Bull continues his streak and absent-minded Shak shows up, Hawks win more comfortably.

in the poll, I had Hawks by 5-9. That works if 1 of my 2 “toss ups” flips

 

[diggerpup]

Outcome?

Great effort by both teams.
The fans win.

Signed,
RoarLions1

 

[Dogwelder]

Outcome?

Great effort by both teams.
The fans win.

Signed,
RoarLions1

Outcome?

Pain.

Signed,
Croesus’s Oracle of Delphi

 

[dunkej01]

125 Iowa 5 Penn State 0
133 Iowa 8 Penn State 0
141 Iowa 8 Penn State 3
149 Iowa 11 Penn State 3
157 Iowa 14 Penn State 3
165 Iowa 14 Penn State 6
174 Iowa 14 Penn State 9
184 Iowa 14 Penn State 12
197 Iowa 14 Penn State 15
Hwt Iowa 17 Penn State 15

this has the feel of an O/U for me. 5 to 5 matches with the match difference being the bonus at 125.

Iowa could blow the doors off with Bull, Warnerov, Assad, Pin by Big Cass.

RBY or Verk or Berge with an Upset and the intranet implodes

going to be f**

 

[NittanyChris]

A healthy Berge is key. If he's healthy, Berge beats Young and we win the dual.
That said, March is what matters. If he's not ready, keep him out and take the loss.

 

[slushhead]

Ok, I ran my own numbers today, doing a hypothetical best-case scenario for each team, a hypothetical worst-case, and then a kind of middle-of-the-road prediction if I were betting on this thing. That latter one is how I voted in the poll. All scenarios excluded Berge from the lineup.

Shall we start with bad? My worst-case for PSU has them winning only 141, and by decision. Final team score Iowa 32, PSU 3.

And best-case for PSU has them winning 7 of 10 for a final score of PSU 22, Iowa 11. But maybe a more realistic best-case would be 6 of 10.

Middle-of-the-road has it Iowa 18, PSU 15. In that, I have a 5-5 split with the only bonus being Spencer with a fall. That scenario gets really interesting, though, if something wild happens and PSU gets a fall somewhere. Can you imagine going to criteria, and beyond criterion #1 at that? Would be epic.

Looking forward to the dual. I'm sure something crazy will happen.

 

[Callthestall]

After watching Iowa- Nebraska match my thought is the Iowa match comes down to the need for Penn State to win 2 of the 3 at; 133, 157 and 165.
If that happens we need to win 2 of 3 at 184, 197 and Heavyweight.
I'm figuring we will have to win 6 bouts ,assuming Spencer Lee wins by tech or pin. I would think Nick Lee and Hall should win by a decision, with a chance of a bonus point by one of them. That would create the necessity to win 6th bout.
I would feel better about our chances if I thought Shak was a guy that could rise to the occasion. We have seen Shak under the bright lights get a little tight. He might have to throw caution to the wind and look for a big move .

 

[nitlion6]

After watching Iowa- Nebraska match my thought is the Iowa match comes down to the need for Penn State to win 2 of the 3 at; 133, 157 and 165.
If that happens we need to win 2 of 3 at 184, 197 and Heavyweight.
I'm figuring we will have to win 6 bouts ,assuming Spencer Lee wins by tech or pin. I would think Nick Lee and Hall should win by a decision, with a chance of a bonus point by one of them. That would create the necessity to win 6th bout.
I would feel better about our chances if I thought Shak was a guy that could rise to the occasion. We have seen Shak under the bright lights get a little tight. He might have to throw caution to the wind and look for a big move .

I don't think Shak needs to throw caution to the wind or anything like that. He just needs to continue to improve his conditioning, wrestle fearlessly and aggressively and a little cradle crazy. Kind of like he did 2 years ago during the stretch where he was competing for a starting job.

 

[minnhawkeye]

Can't pick a winner to close to call..
We the fans are the winners going to be a great match and
great show..over 15,500 fans lots of tv land getting to watch the best show on Friday nite..Best of everything to all the wrestlers..

 

[District four]

Can't pick a winner to close to call..
We the fans are the winners going to be a great match and
great show..over 15,500 fans lots of tv land getting to watch the best show on Friday nite..Best of everything to all the wrestlers..

Love your attitude minnhawk and tour are definitely right best show on earth

 

[Ian]

The holes at 125, 149, and 157 are too much for PSU to overcome in this dual. I’m expecting something like 23-14 Hawkeyes.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Copying from rogue thread:

I had this:


Lee Tech 5-nil
Desanto D 8-nil
Lee D 8-3
Lugo D 11-3
Young D 14-3
Cenzo D 14-6
Mark D 14-9
Brooks D 14-12
Shak D 14-15
Cass D 17-15

But if Bull continues his streak and absent-minded Shak shows up, Hawks win more comfortably.

in the poll, I had Hawks by 5-9. That works if 1 of my 2 “toss ups” flips

5 Jan 19, 2020

Now, I’m thinking more like 20-12 with Shak not looking good. Just hope our guys bring it and don’t get hurt. I remember the punt year when Iowa was supposed to kill us and our very outmatched team wrestled great. We are outmatched this year, but not like in 2015

 

[Creek Side]

125. Iowa 6
133. Iowa 3
141. PSU 4
149. Iowa 3
157. Iowa 3
165. PSU 3
174. PSU. 3
184. PSU 3
197. Iowa 3
Hwt. PSU 3

PSU 16 Iowa 18

Hopefully some of our guys can get an upset. I think it's quite possible that Nick Lee techs Murin.

 

[Creek Side]

Copying from rogue thread:

Damn guys that start those rogue threads

 

[Random4598375]

The holes at 125, 149, and 157 are too much for PSU to overcome in this dual. I’m expecting something like 23-14 Hawkeyes.

After watching the NE dual, I unfortunately concur with this. The 5 matches PSU won against NE are the only classes where they have a decent chance against Iowa, except that 133 and 165 are more like 50-50 than PSU favored and if they do split the matches 5-5, it's highly unlikely they will get out-bonus Iowa given the lopsided 125 & 157 matchups (obviously assuming Berge is out, which I think we all expect). It is what it is. PSU has a much better chance to beat them in the tournament format than dual.

 

[bigs22]

After watching the NE dual, I unfortunately concur with this. The 5 matches PSU won against NE are the only classes where they have a decent chance against Iowa, except that 133 and 165 are more like 50-50 than PSU favored and if they do split the matches 5-5, it's highly unlikely they will get out-bonus Iowa given the lopsided 125 & 157 matchups (obviously assuming Berge is out, which I think we all expect). It is what it is. PSU has a much better chance to beat them in the tournament format than dual.

Aaron Brooks loses once and now he doesn’t even have a “decent chance” against Abe Assad? Really?

 

[Random4598375]

Aaron Brooks loses once and now he doesn’t even have a “decent chance” against Abe Assad? Really?

I mean, anything could happen, but I've been much more impressed with what I've seen of Assad than Brooks so far. That's more of a positive judgment on Assad than a negative one on Brooks.

 

[Lyons212]

125. Iowa 6
133. Iowa 3
141. PSU 4
149. Iowa 3
157. Iowa 3
165. PSU 3
174. PSU. 3
184. PSU 3
197. Iowa 3
Hwt. PSU 3

PSU 16 Iowa 18

Hopefully some of our guys can get an upset. I think it's quite possible that Nick Lee techs Murin.

Might be if Nick techs or pins Happel. Seems that Murin is dealing with a shoulder issue, if true does Brands put him on the mat this week and risk Nick working that shoulder over? Probably not.

 

[Creek Side]

Might be if Nick techs or pins Happel. Seems that Murin is dealing with a shoulder issue, if true does Brands put him on the mat this week and risk Nick working that shoulder over? Probably not.

I'm sure that Nick will be the take down machine that he is against either of those guys. I agree we may see Happel instead of Murin but I'm more interested to see who Brands sends out a 97? Will it be Warner or $$.

 

[Lyons212]

I'm sure that Nick will be the take down machine that he is against either of those guys. I agree we may see Happel instead of Murin but I'm more interested to see who Brands sends out a 97? Will it be Warner or $$.

Unless Shak steps it up, it won't matter who they send out.

 

[Crusher1950]

We have 3 great wrestlers, Lee, Joseph and Hall there’s no way we are beating Iowa

 

[TangSoo]

We have 3 great wrestlers, Lee, Joseph and Hall there’s no way we are beating Iowa

Slow time of year for shitting on the football team?

 

[pawrestlersintn]

We have 3 great wrestlers, Lee, Joseph and Hall there’s no way we are beating Iowa

Define great.

 

[Law-Deezie]

Lee Tech 5-nil
Desanto D 8-nil
Lee D 8-3
Lugo D 11-3
Young D 14-3
Cenzo D 14-6
Mark D 14-9
Brooks D 14-12
Shak D 14-15
Cass D 17-15

But if Bull continues his streak and absent-minded Shak shows up, Hawks win more comfortably.

in the poll, I had Hawks by 5-9. That works if 1 of my 2 “toss ups” flips

I totally agree with your predictions with the exception of 125 & 197. I think Lee goes for the pin to get em going, assuming they start at 125. No doubt Brands will have them ready to roll and try to make a statement at the same time, knowing PSU is wounded and ripe for the picking. Iowa hasn’t been a true threat in quite some time. It’s fair to say, although I hate too, this is their year as long as they stay focused. We have too many holes/what-ifs. Not saying it can’t be done but it’ll be tuff sledding to win a NC. That said, I think we lose the dual as well. It should be a relatively close match but I can see it getting out of hand if RBY goes down and the crowd is “lit.”

 

[86PSUPaul]

I know Cael likes 125 starts, but I wonder if he goes for a different weight to not have Lee kicking it off? Probably not, I assume he just wants to put our best lineup available out there and let the chips fall where they will. He generally is not into gamesmanship, but what do I know....

Thoughts?

 

[bigs22]

I know Cael likes 125 starts, but I wonder if he goes for a different weight to not have Lee kicking it off? Probably not, I assume he just wants to put our best lineup available out there and let the chips fall where they will. He generally is not into gamesmanship, but what do I know....

Thoughts?

I say start at 125. No one from Iowa seems to be pulling enough weight to give us an advantage in that way. And I don’t want any situation where Spencer starts doing math and thinks he needs 6 for sure.

 

[Random4598375]

I say start at 125. No one from Iowa seems to be pulling enough weight to give us an advantage in that way. And I don’t want any situation where Spencer starts doing math and thinks he needs 6 for sure.

I agree. Starting at 125 means that only PSU can get off to a good start. If Lee gets 5 or 6 and DeSanto wins, that's what they're expected to do and the match is going according to script, but if Meredith holds Lee to 3 and RBY wins, they've lost some of their best opportunities to build a lead right off the bat and the match momentum immediately shifts to PSU. It's a no-lose situation.

It's like the OSU match last year. They had to score big at the start and hope to hold on, but when Schnupp held Heinzelman to a Dec and then RBY and Lee beat Pletcher and McKenna, the match was over already. What needed to be a 15-0 lead after 149 was 6-6 and the rout was on. Not that I think there's any chance PSU beats Iowa by 20 points this year, but it's definitely far more critical for Iowa to score big at 125 and 133 and it's easier to neutralize that right away rather than late in a match.

 

[apoharrow]

I agree. Starting at 125 means that only PSU can get off to a good start. If Lee gets 5 or 6 and DeSanto wins, that's what they're expected to do and the match is going according to script, but if Meredith holds Lee to 3 and RBY wins, they've lost some of their best opportunities to build a lead right off the bat and the match momentum immediately shifts to PSU. It's a no-lose situation.

It's like the OSU match last year. They had to score big at the start and hope to hold on, but when Schnupp held Heinzelman to a Dec and then RBY and Lee beat Pletcher and McKenna, the match was over already. What needed to be a 15-0 lead after 149 was 6-6 and the rout was on. Not that I think there's any chance PSU beats Iowa by 20 points this year, but it's definitely far more critical for Iowa to score big at 125 and 133 and it's easier to neutralize that right away rather than late in a match.

OSU match last year started at 133.

 

[Random4598375]

OSU match last year started at 133.

Did it? I forgot about that. Regardless, it was the two wins early from RBY and Lee and the match was over. OSU needed to build a lead there and neutralizing their advantage right away ended any hope for them very early. That's a lot more difficult to do at the back end of the match than right off the bat when the expectations are only one way.

 

[McScoreley]

OSU match last year started at 133.

Yup - it made sense. They wanted to jump out to a double digit lead (probably were expecting Luke, Joey by decision then Micah by some kind of bonus) Instead they got RBY, Nick coming out and taking out their counterparts and Micah fighting for dear life against Verk.

 

[Callthestall]

With or without Sasso

 

[bigbopper1985]

My head tells me that Iowa wins by 6-8 points.

But I also expect that there will be something very unexpected - either a big upset or a fall instead of a decision at one of the toss up weights.

PSU vs Iowa history has been littered with upsets both ways. will it happen Friday. i say yes

 

[AgSurfer]

OK - I'll go out on a limb here and predict that after the dual is over, someone is going to say "Just wait until next year."

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

Thoughts?

Cael seems to prefer the routine provided by starting at 125 and does not seem big on gamesmanship. Tom will be fine with leading off with Spencer and Austin.

Much greater than 83% chance they agree to start at 125 and leave the coin toss to selecting choice in even and odd matches.

 

[gtown mike]

125- Iowa 6- PSU 0
133- Iowa 9- PSU 0
141- Iowa 9- PSU 4
149- Iowa 12- PSU 4
157- Iowa 17- PSU 4
165- Iowa 17- PSU 7
174- Iowa 17- PSU 10
184- Iowa 17- PSU 13
197- Iowa 20- PSU 13
285- Iowa 23- PSU 13

I wish I saw this differently. I haven't seen enough improvement from RBY to think he will change previous results against AD. I have a feeling they may not send Kemmerer out against Hall, which could turn that into 6.

 

[Afw6006]

I honestly would not be surprised for some of these predicted matchups to not happen. Cael has always shown that he cares most what happens in March and I'm sure Brands has his eyes set there more than ever this year. Whether that means we don't see RBY against AD, no Kemerer against Hall, we'll see