POLL: Predicting the PSU-Iowa 2019-20 NCAAs Finish - PART III

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BWI Installment #3 for the NCAA TOURNAMENT as we are now just 6 weeks from March . . .

Part I (10/28) had PSU winning with 96% of the vote (n = 53). The most common margin of victory was 10.5-20 pts.

Part II (12/29) had PSU winning with 64% of the vote (n = 83). The most common margin of victory was 0.5-5 pts.

The October swagger has been knocked down a few pegs, both in votes and expected margin of victory. Did we bottom at the end of December?

 

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As with the dual poll, I ran some numbers today on some hypothetical outcomes for Nationals. Holding Berge out of the lineup, I did a best-case, worst-case, and middle-of-the-road scenario for each team. Oomph, go easy on me . . .

Best-case: PSU 150, Iowa 113.5
Worst-case: Iowa 198.5, PSU 66.5
Middle: Iowa 157.5, PSU 117

In the best-case, each team had 7 AAs. PSU had 5 finalists w/ 4 champs, plus a 3rd and a 5th, whereas Iowa had 1 champ, a 3rd, two 4ths, a 5th, and two 6ths.

In the worst-case, where our wheels fall off and all of Iowa's guys reach their potential, I had PSU with 4 AAs (two 3rds, a 4th, and a 6th) and Iowa with 10 AAs (five 1sts, a 2nd, two 3rds, a 4th, and a 6th).

My middle-of-the-road plays it a bit conservatively for PSU and gives (IMO) nearly full credit to Iowa, so perhaps it's not quite down the middle. Anyway, it gives PSU 7 AAs (two 1sts, a 2nd, three 4ths, and a 7th), whereas Iowa pulls off the hat-trick and gets 10 AAs (one 1st, three 2nds, two 3rds, a 4th, a 5th, and two 7ths).

I reserve the right to be kinder or nastier during the next two editions of this poll. I want to learn more about where a couple of our guys stack up before going too far out on a proverbial limb.

 

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Last call on this vote . . . pool closes ~6:30 PM.