Poll: What will PSU’s record be after September?

[NittanyChris]

Time for a little prognostication and discussion. What say you all? My own two cents:3-1. Asking this team to go to Camp Randall and win on Week 1 is a tall order, I’m afraid. I think they’ll play well but lose a close one. However, unlike last season, I think they will bounce back and have a strong rest of the month.

 

[NittanyChris]

Bump.

 

[Wallace Breen]

I am going 2 and 2.

 

[NittanyChris]

I am going 2 and 2.

It’s possible. Care to elaborate on your rationale?

 

[4INSBU]

Hoping for 4-0, but 2-2 is more realistic given Franklin's history.

 

[veebs]

I think it will hard to win both Auburn (even with a new coach) and Wisc on their home turf especially within only a three week span

 

[Wallace Breen]

It’s possible. Care to elaborate on your rationale?

Sure. Look at the state of the team. For the second year in a row we have a new offense. We are not talking small changes either. We went from college spread to west coast back now back to a college spread but a very different kind of college spread based on MY's history. Franklin says otherwise. I'll believe it when I see it. Rarely does a team take a new offense out of the gate, even a simple college spread takes time to implement. I fully expect the offense to be rough around the edges the first part of the season.

Defensively, I like the secondary so long as they find a competent free safety. The linebacking corps has potential, emphasis on potential but I do not like the defensive line. We have good individual pieces but holes in the roster. Personally, I think this will be the weakest defensive line I have seen at Dear Old State in certain situations. Not all, but many. They will excel in others.

Now, take those two and throw in the schedule. Defensively, we do not match up with Wisconsin's offense. Without loading the box and blitzing, I don't see how we are going to contain the inside/outside zone combo without a stellar 3 technique tackle to disrupt the interior. Schematically, we are in a pick our poison situation. Move Beamon outside to the 5 to take away the outside zone and you give up the inside, move him inside and you lose the outsize zone. The offense, in its first live action with a new scheme will have to control the game.

Fast forward to Ball State. They are dangerous. While it is a true statement that they cannot beat us on their best day, it is also true that we can lose to them if we are not ready and there is a game every year where we are not ready. They are not an opponent you want in week 2. Wisconsin will uncover some flaws. We likely won't be able to fix them while adequately preparing for a dangerous Ball State team. We should win, but we could lose.

Looking at Auburn, they have two games to prepare for us. Their defense is expected to be in good shape from the get go and is better than ours. Offensively, HC Bryan Harsin was one of the better OCs out there and proved he can adapt to varying degrees of talent. Mike Bobo is pretty good as well. Based on Harsin's track record, we might see a considerably improved offense. I see a split between Ball State and Auburn followed by a win against Nova. Looking down the road, I see a 50/50 game against Indiana and another loss at Iowa.

 

[NittanyChris]

Sure. Look at the state of the team. For the second year in a row we have a new offense. We are not talking small changes either. We went from college spread to west coast back now back to a college spread but a very different kind of college spread based on MY's history. Franklin says otherwise. I'll believe it when I see it. Rarely does a team take a new offense out of the gate, even a simple college spread takes time to implement. I fully expect the offense to be rough around the edges the first part of the season.

Defensively, I like the secondary so long as they find a competent free safety. The linebacking corps has potential, emphasis on potential but I do not like the defensive line. We have good individual pieces but holes in the roster. Personally, I think this will be the weakest defensive line I have seen at Dear Old State in certain situations. Not all, but many. They will excel in others.

Now, take those two and throw in the schedule. Defensively, we do not match up with Wisconsin's offense. Without loading the box and blitzing, I don't see how we are going to contain the inside/outside zone combo without a stellar 3 technique tackle to disrupt the interior. Schematically, we are in a pick our poison situation. Move Beamon outside to the 5 to take away the outside zone and you give up the inside, move him inside and you lose the outsize zone. The offense, in its first live action with a new scheme will have to control the game.

Fast forward to Ball State. They are dangerous. While it is a true statement that they cannot beat us on their best day, it is also true that we can lose to them if we are not ready and there is a game every year where we are not ready. They are not an opponent you want in week 2. Wisconsin will uncover some flaws. We likely won't be able to fix them while adequately preparing for a dangerous Ball State team. We should win, but we could lose.

Looking at Auburn, they have two games to prepare for us. Their defense is expected to be in good shape from the get go and is better than ours. Offensively, HC Bryan Harsin was one of the better OCs out there and proved he can adapt to varying degrees of talent. Mike Bobo is pretty good as well. Based on Harsin's track record, we might see a considerably improved offense. I see a split between Ball State and Auburn followed by a win against Nova. Looking down the road, I see a 50/50 game against Indiana and another loss at Iowa.

You make some fair points. I share your concerns about the DL. Beamon appears to be a tweener who doesn't really fit at DT or DE. I thought Mustipher would make a huge leap forward last season, but it never occurred. Perhaps this year. But the other DT support is not inspiring. Hoping Tangelo is at least solid. DE has a lot of projects. I do think Ebiketie will live up to the hype.
I disagree on the secondary. Brisker will be among the best in the nation. I think one of Brown/Ellis will rise to the occasion. Our CBs are well above average and the freshman King could be a superstar right out of the gate.
I also like our LBs better. Smith will be more comfortable in his new role. Jacobs is immensely talented. I think Brooks is a step slow, but he's solid and experienced.
Where I think you're seriously underselling the team is the offense. Our O-line will be well above average with 2 true NFL players at OT. Parker Washington exceeded all expectations as a freshman and will continue to improve. Dotson is a flat-out stud. I like Lambert-Smith will emerge as a dangerous #3. Of course our RB talent is outstanding. Our TEs are weapons as well. I like Strange, but Theo Johnson will take the mantle passed from Gesicki to Freiermuth to him as the next Penn State legend at TE. I think the offense will carry the team while the defense figures out the D-Line situation.
I think Wisky is a bit tough for week one but Ball St and Auburn are wins for this team. It's 3-1 after September, IMO.

 

[BrucePa]

I view this season like this: Losses at Wisconsin and at Ohio State, for sure.

Somewhere in the group of Auburn, at Iowa, Indiana, and Michigan, there lies at least another loss.

So, 9-3 more or less. Not elite.

 

[Wallace Breen]

You make some fair points. I share your concerns about the DL. Beamon appears to be a tweener who doesn't really fit at DT or DE. I thought Mustipher would make a huge leap forward last season, but it never occurred. Perhaps this year. But the other DT support is not inspiring. Hoping Tangelo is at least solid. DE has a lot of projects. I do think Ebiketie will live up to the hype.
I disagree on the secondary. Brisker will be among the best in the nation. I think one of Brown/Ellis will rise to the occasion. Our CBs are well above average and the freshman King could be a superstar right out of the gate.
I also like our LBs better. Smith will be more comfortable in his new role. Jacobs is immensely talented. I think Brooks is a step slow, but he's solid and experienced.
Where I think you're seriously underselling the team is the offense. Our O-line will be well above average with 2 true NFL players at OT. Parker Washington exceeded all expectations as a freshman and will continue to improve. Dotson is a flat-out stud. I like Lambert-Smith will emerge as a dangerous #3. Of course our RB talent is outstanding. Our TEs are weapons as well. I like Strange, but Theo Johnson will take the mantle passed from Gesicki to Freiermuth to him as the next Penn State legend at TE. I think the offense will carry the team while the defense figures out the D-Line situation.
I think Wisky is a bit tough for week one but Ball St and Auburn are wins for this team. It's 3-1 after September, IMO.

I agree with almost everything you say, I just don't think it happens in the first three games. The schedule is the issue. I have us going 7 and 5 overall with 3 or 4 losses in the first six games. If we had Michigan State's schedule, I would throw out 9 and 3 with a shot at 10 and 2 on the year. That is the degree that I think the schedule will determine the final results.

 

[blion72]

I agree with almost everything you say, I just don't think it happens in the first three games. The schedule is the issue. I have us going 7 and 5 overall with 3 or 4 losses in the first six games. If we had Michigan State's schedule, I would throw out 9 and 3 with a shot at 10 and 2 on the year. That is the degree that I think the schedule will determine the final results.

I am with you in that I see 7 or maybe 8 win team. as you say the schedule is a big part of this. even playing the same teams, but in a somewhat different order, would be a large difference. So say we played Nova, Ball State, Auburn and Illinois in that order, and then the rest of the schedule in some balanced order = would be a 9 or possibly a 10 win team. This team needs more of a tune up schedule. How we ever got to a world where we are playing big conference games on the road is somewhat odd, but that is where we seem to be.

the previous position breakdown was good, but the simple fact is that given all this there are a couple things that really jump out.

• On offense this team does not seem to have the players to go the length of the field in a few plays like MY likes. JD is as close as we get, and he does not have a lot of KJ Hamler blow the DBs away plays with pure speed. None of the RBs seem to be that either - although hoping that Lovett turns into the home run back. We have had several seasons with guys who could take it the distance, but not seeing it with this team. Not sure MY wants the 14 play drive with 8 min off the clock and 6 FDs type offense........which is somewhat what we had in 2020 but with few points to show for it.
• On defense this team does not seem to have a clear group of pass rushers. In fact, we have lived off that type of DEF for the last few years. If there is little pressure on QBs, not sure where this leaves us. We have the best group of DBs in years, but with no pass rush, no DB is going to shutdown WRs.

Obviously, in a couple weeks we will see the reality, and we are speculating based on what we have seen in the past. When I think of 7 or 8 wins, it does seem odd if we were to look at the avg star rating of our roster vs opponents, possibly only OSU would have a more highly rated team in terms of talent. after the Cotton Bowl game, I was thinking we were potentially top 5 team - now 20 month later thinking we are a 7 win team.

 

[danvillenit]

You make some fair points. I share your concerns about the DL. Beamon appears to be a tweener who doesn't really fit at DT or DE. I thought Mustipher would make a huge leap forward last season, but it never occurred. Perhaps this year. But the other DT support is not inspiring. Hoping Tangelo is at least solid. DE has a lot of projects. I do think Ebiketie will live up to the hype.
I disagree on the secondary. Brisker will be among the best in the nation. I think one of Brown/Ellis will rise to the occasion. Our CBs are well above average and the freshman King could be a superstar right out of the gate.
I also like our LBs better. Smith will be more comfortable in his new role. Jacobs is immensely talented. I think Brooks is a step slow, but he's solid and experienced.
Where I think you're seriously underselling the team is the offense. Our O-line will be well above average with 2 true NFL players at OT. Parker Washington exceeded all expectations as a freshman and will continue to improve. Dotson is a flat-out stud. I like Lambert-Smith will emerge as a dangerous #3. Of course our RB talent is outstanding. Our TEs are weapons as well. I like Strange, but Theo Johnson will take the mantle passed from Gesicki to Freiermuth to him as the next Penn State legend at TE. I think the offense will carry the team while the defense figures out the D-Line situation.
I think Wisky is a bit tough for week one but Ball St and Auburn are wins for this team. It's 3-1 after September, IMO.

Agree with pretty much everything you wrote. I think Wisconsin is going to be a really tough game for week one. People forget this will be their first game with fans back in the stands. I see a loss then the only other loss at OSU.

 

[Ian]

Sure. Look at the state of the team. For the second year in a row we have a new offense. We are not talking small changes either. We went from college spread to west coast back now back to a college spread but a very different kind of college spread based on MY's history. Franklin says otherwise. I'll believe it when I see it. Rarely does a team take a new offense out of the gate, even a simple college spread takes time to implement. I fully expect the offense to be rough around the edges the first part of the season.

Defensively, I like the secondary so long as they find a competent free safety. The linebacking corps has potential, emphasis on potential but I do not like the defensive line. We have good individual pieces but holes in the roster. Personally, I think this will be the weakest defensive line I have seen at Dear Old State in certain situations. Not all, but many. They will excel in others.

Now, take those two and throw in the schedule. Defensively, we do not match up with Wisconsin's offense. Without loading the box and blitzing, I don't see how we are going to contain the inside/outside zone combo without a stellar 3 technique tackle to disrupt the interior. Schematically, we are in a pick our poison situation. Move Beamon outside to the 5 to take away the outside zone and you give up the inside, move him inside and you lose the outsize zone. The offense, in its first live action with a new scheme will have to control the game.

Fast forward to Ball State. They are dangerous. While it is a true statement that they cannot beat us on their best day, it is also true that we can lose to them if we are not ready and there is a game every year where we are not ready. They are not an opponent you want in week 2. Wisconsin will uncover some flaws. We likely won't be able to fix them while adequately preparing for a dangerous Ball State team. We should win, but we could lose.

Looking at Auburn, they have two games to prepare for us. Their defense is expected to be in good shape from the get go and is better than ours. Offensively, HC Bryan Harsin was one of the better OCs out there and proved he can adapt to varying degrees of talent. Mike Bobo is pretty good as well. Based on Harsin's track record, we might see a considerably improved offense. I see a split between Ball State and Auburn followed by a win against Nova. Looking down the road, I see a 50/50 game against Indiana and another loss at Iowa.

And Franklin teams are notorious from not playing well after a loss or bye week.

 

[bison13]

Until I see a game I'm not changing my optimism.

 

[Beachwineguy]

Until I see a game I'm not changing my optimism.

Don’t worry. After seeing the team win some games, a few of these fans won’t let it change their pessimism.

 

[demlion]

Mark it down. Solid win vs. Wisky.

 

[PSUFBFAN]

I view this season like this: Losses at Wisconsin and at Ohio State, for sure.

Somewhere in the group of Auburn, at Iowa, Indiana, and Michigan, there lies at least another loss.

So, 9-3 more or less. Not elite.

There certainly is a subset of posters who think Wisconsin is another version of the '85 Bears (feel free to insert your favorite dynasty here). They are probably going to be a good team and a tough game to win on the road.

On the other hand, Wisconsin is also a team that scored 7, 6, and 7 points in consecutive games last year against NW, Indiana, and Iowa. They scored 17 points in regulation in their last regular-season game against MN. Yes, they did score 42 against wake forest in the mayonnaise bowl, so there's that.

If we get into the 30's, I like our chances.

 

[lazydave841]

Why do people have so much faith in Auburn installing a brand new offense and being ready for week 3, but we are doomed?

This is not 2016. We are very likely closer to a 10/11 win team than 7.

 

[Wallace Breen]

Why do people have so much faith in Auburn installing a brand new offense and being ready for week 3, but we are doomed?

This is not 2016. We are very likely closer to a 10/11 win team than 7.

The Auburn staff have a demonstrated track record adapting the scheme and excelling with the talent on hand. Our staff, to include MY, do not. Plus they have two safe games to work out kinks in live action. We do not as Franklin's tendency is to play it safe in live situations where the outcome is in doubt.

 

[lazydave841]

The Auburn staff have a demonstrated track record adapting the scheme and excelling with the talent on hand. Our staff, to include MY, do not. Plus they have two safe games to work out kinks in live action. We do not as Franklin's tendency is to play it safe in live situations where the outcome is in doubt.

I'd like to see what data points you are using to come up with that answer. I started researching Harsin expecting to see some Urban Meyer like results at his mid major stops along the way to Auburn.

I see:
-a guy who didn't ruin Boise State, but also didn't win quite as much as his predecessor.
-OC for a 4 and 5 loss Texas teams (you crapped on our 5 loss team didn't you?). -5 losses at Arkansas State after his predecessor's both came in and went 10-3

But maybe I missed something.

 

[mrmk5110]

The Auburn staff have a demonstrated track record adapting the scheme and excelling with the talent on hand. Our staff, to include MY, do not. Plus they have two safe games to work out kinks in live action. We do not as Franklin's tendency is to play it safe in live situations where the outcome is in doubt.

What is your evidence for saying that about the Auburn staff?

 

[Ranger Dan]

I think both the Auburn and Wisconsin games will be very tough. We could lose both, or win both if we play up to our abilities. It’s still summer, so I’m going to be optimistic and say. 4-0.

 

[MJG-90]

Not there yet, but I predicted 4-0. And, as usual, Wallace Breen is way off target.

 

[lazydave841]

Not there yet, but I predicted 4-0. And, as usual, Wallace Breen is way off target.

Guy is a pure troll.

 

[marshall23]

Not there yet, but I predicted 4-0. And, as usual, Wallace Breen is way off target.

Wallace Breen LOL

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Hall of Fame Wallace Breen idiocy on tap in this thread

 

[MJG-90]

Guy is a pure troll.

He’s a 🤡

 

[AWS1022]

Not there yet, but I predicted 4-0. And, as usual, Wallace Breen is way off target.

But he’s just being unbiased….you know, picking everything against one team is the very definition of unbiased.

 

[mn78psu83]

Not there yet, but I predicted 4-0. And, as usual, Wallace Breen is way off target.

But he does it with such self-assuredness. What a fool.