There is much concern that Putin will use some sort of nuke in Ukraine ….justifiably so. The use of any nuke, even the smallest tactical nuke, would be a world altering event. We all know that and Putin knows it. So would he do so, how, and what would be our reaction? Lots of factors to consider.
First would Putin use a nuke? He knows the consequences would be massive. Our possible military reaction, what would his erstwhile Allies do? Would China, India and others continue their support? Would Putin consider his place in history as being the first person to break that universal bond to not use nukes.
Then, if he gave such an order, would his generals and military follow said orders? They know they too would go down in history as major war criminals like Hitler’s cronies and would likely face a similar fate in a world court. Same with officers down the chain of command. These officers also know a terrible counter strike of some sort would quickly follow adding to their hesistence to launch.
Next question, would it be successful? A very high percentage of their missiles are being shot down. Even their vaunted hypersonic missiles have been shot down at a high rate this past week. What would happen if they fired a nuclear armed missile that gets shot down? The Ukes get proof they launched a nuke and Putin gets nothing in return? Would he then launch multiple nukes so that at least one would get through? Very escalatory.
And then, what would he target? All the fighting is done in areas that are mostly Russian speaking people that reportedly want to be part of Russia …. certainly makes no sense to nuke his own people. Especially if he believes he will win the war…..and have territory in his expanded Russia now contaminated with nuclear fallout. And wouldn’t some of the fallout naturally blow into Russia proper itself? Not a good thing for Putin.
So what military target is there that a nuke could hit away from the front lines? By now the Ukes have all their weapons and supplies widely dispersed. No nuke strike would make a significant military difference. And would he nuke Kyiv itself? Would that gain him anything or would the global outrage be far worse? And he spoke lovingly about the city as the birthplace of Russian culture and the Russian Orthodox Church of which he is a staunch believer?
And what would be the response militarily? Would we also strike with a nuke? I seriously doubt we would as it would not be necessary and would be very risky. We have massive air-fuel bombs as damaging as small nukes. One or two could take out the entire naval base at Sevestapol. We could also quickly destroy the entire Black Sea fleet. And I am sure we have made all of this and more clear to the Russian chain of command.
With all of this in mind…..the lack of military purpose, the historical damage to Putin’s legacy, questionable chain of command, the massive global blowback, even the ability to successfully pull it off…..it is doubtful Putin would order such a strike. I never said he was crazy like Hitler, even though he copied a lot of Hitler’s tactics. He is a megalomaniac with a vision of restoring czarist Mother Russia….and may even believe that is his Devine role….but he knows using any nuke, no matter how small, would come with a cost far higher than any benefit.
But I am just some guy on a farm somewhere. I have no real insight. There are people far better informed than I and hopefully know what they are doing. A miscalculation could be catastrophic. Few people think Putin is crazy enough to do it. But even a slight chance is a very scary chance.
First would Putin use a nuke? He knows the consequences would be massive. Our possible military reaction, what would his erstwhile Allies do? Would China, India and others continue their support? Would Putin consider his place in history as being the first person to break that universal bond to not use nukes.
Then, if he gave such an order, would his generals and military follow said orders? They know they too would go down in history as major war criminals like Hitler’s cronies and would likely face a similar fate in a world court. Same with officers down the chain of command. These officers also know a terrible counter strike of some sort would quickly follow adding to their hesistence to launch.
Next question, would it be successful? A very high percentage of their missiles are being shot down. Even their vaunted hypersonic missiles have been shot down at a high rate this past week. What would happen if they fired a nuclear armed missile that gets shot down? The Ukes get proof they launched a nuke and Putin gets nothing in return? Would he then launch multiple nukes so that at least one would get through? Very escalatory.
And then, what would he target? All the fighting is done in areas that are mostly Russian speaking people that reportedly want to be part of Russia …. certainly makes no sense to nuke his own people. Especially if he believes he will win the war…..and have territory in his expanded Russia now contaminated with nuclear fallout. And wouldn’t some of the fallout naturally blow into Russia proper itself? Not a good thing for Putin.
So what military target is there that a nuke could hit away from the front lines? By now the Ukes have all their weapons and supplies widely dispersed. No nuke strike would make a significant military difference. And would he nuke Kyiv itself? Would that gain him anything or would the global outrage be far worse? And he spoke lovingly about the city as the birthplace of Russian culture and the Russian Orthodox Church of which he is a staunch believer?
And what would be the response militarily? Would we also strike with a nuke? I seriously doubt we would as it would not be necessary and would be very risky. We have massive air-fuel bombs as damaging as small nukes. One or two could take out the entire naval base at Sevestapol. We could also quickly destroy the entire Black Sea fleet. And I am sure we have made all of this and more clear to the Russian chain of command.
With all of this in mind…..the lack of military purpose, the historical damage to Putin’s legacy, questionable chain of command, the massive global blowback, even the ability to successfully pull it off…..it is doubtful Putin would order such a strike. I never said he was crazy like Hitler, even though he copied a lot of Hitler’s tactics. He is a megalomaniac with a vision of restoring czarist Mother Russia….and may even believe that is his Devine role….but he knows using any nuke, no matter how small, would come with a cost far higher than any benefit.
But I am just some guy on a farm somewhere. I have no real insight. There are people far better informed than I and hopefully know what they are doing. A miscalculation could be catastrophic. Few people think Putin is crazy enough to do it. But even a slight chance is a very scary chance.
